Where smart money is flowing for four of today's biggest games along with several others receiving sharp action.
1 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at New Orleans Saints (10-2)
This line opened with the Saints listed as 3-point home favorites. With oddsmakers typically awarding 3-points for home field advantage, this means books view this game as a coin-flip at a neutral site. Pros and Joes have both sided with the 49ers, forcing sportsbooks to drop this line all the way down to 2. San Francisco fits several profitable systems this season: road dog, short road dog plus 6 or less and road dog off a loss.
Despite two-thirds of bets taking the over, the total has fallen slightly from 45 to 44.5, signaling smart money on the under. John Hussey, the lead referee, has been profitable to the under (59.2%).
1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (5-7) at Atlanta Falcons (3-9)
The line opened with Atlanta listed as a short 2-point home favorite. A slight majority of bets are backing the Falcons, but so is sharp money, pushing the line up to -3.5. The Falcons enjoy extra rest, having last played November 28 compared to the Panthers last playing December 1. Carolina also just fired their longtime head coach Ron Rivera, which makes you wonder if they will play hard today or fold completely.
The total has ticked down slightly from 48 to 47. When the total is 45 or higher in a divisional game, the under is 60% since 2003. The over is 8-4 in Carolina games but the under is 8-4 in Atlanta games. The Falcons welcome back two of their top pass catchers from injury: Julio Jones and Austin Hooper.
1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (1-11) at Cleveland Browns (5-7)
This NFC North divisional matchup opened with Cleveland listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Despite the tickets being even, the line has tumbled down to 7, signaling sharp line movement toward Cincinnati. The Bengals have value as a divisional road dog and a dog with a low total.
Sharps have also leaned on the under. The total opened at 42.5 and has fallen to 42. The forecast calls for 15-17 MPH winds at the Dawg Pound. Divisional unders with 10 MPH winds or higher are 60.4% since 2003. The Bengals are 8-3-1 to the under this season and the Browns are 7-5 to the under.
8:20 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (10-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
This divisional matchup opened with Seattle listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. The Seahawks are an auto-bet for the public at this point and three-out-of-four bets are laying the points with Seattle. However, the line has plummeted down a pick'em, signaling massive sharp action on the Rams at home. Los Angeles has value as a divisional dog and a contrarian team in the most heavily bet game of the day.
The total has been bet up slightly from 46.5 to 47. Primetime unders, however, are 25-16 (61%) this season and December divisional unders 45 or higher are 60% since 2003. The over is 7-5 in Seahawks games but the under is 8-4 in Rams games.
More sharp action ...
Redskins plus 13.5 to plus 12.5 at Packers
Colts-Bucs Under 49 to 47
Dolphins plus 6 to plus 5 at Jets
Dolphins-Jets Over 44 to 46
Broncos plus 9.5 to plus 9 at Texans
