Saturday Betting Info

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

Where smart money is flowing for three of today's biggest championship games.

12 p.m. ET: Baylor (11-1, ranked 7th) vs. Oklahoma (11-1, ranked 6th)

This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 10-point favorite. Pros and Joes both believe the line is too high. A slight majority of bets are grabbing the points with Baylor, which has dropped the line down to 9.5 or 9.

We've also seen sharp money hit the over, driving the total up from 62 to 65. Weather shouldn't be an issue in this one. The dome is expected to be open and forecasts call for mid 50s with little to no wind. Both teams are 6-6 to the over this season.

4 p.m. ET: Georgia (11-1, ranked 4th) vs. LSU (12-0, ranked 2nd)

This line opened with LSU listed as a 6-point favorite. More than two-thirds of bets are laying the points with the Tigers. This lopsided betting pushed the line up to 7. That's when you saw some sharps get down hard on Georgia at an inflated 7. The Bulldogs have value as a contrarian dog in an extremely heavily bet game. Also, history is on the Bulldogs' side: when two top 5 teams face off, the dog is 20-11 ATS (65%) since 2005 according to Bet Labs Sports. Georgia also benefits from more big-game experience. This is the Dawg's 4th straight SEC Title Game. This is LSU's first since 2011.

The total hasn't budged off the opener of 55.5. LSU is 8-4 to the over this season but Georgia 9-3 to under. Since 2005, SEC championship overs are 10-3-1 (77%)

8 p.m. ET: Wisconsin (10-2, ranked 8th) vs. Ohio State (12-0, ranked 1st)

This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 16.5-point favorite. The public is loading up on the Buckeyes once again. However, despite three-out-of-four bets laying the points, the line has remained frozen at 16.5 and even dipped to 16 at some shops, signaling sharp liability on the Badgers plus the points.

Pros and Joes have also crushed the over, pushing the total up from 53.5 to 56. The over is 7-5 in Ohio State games and 6-6 in Wisconsin games.

More sharp action ...

Clemson-Virginia Over 53 to 57

Hawaii 14.5 to 14 at Boise State

UL Lafayette-Appalachian State Over 56.5 to 57.5

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

In its past seven games as an underdog, Baylor is 7-0 ATS with five outright wins. In 47 games as an underdog, Matt Rhule is 33-14 ATS with 16 outright wins.

UAB coach Bill Clark is 25-12 ATS

He is also 11-2 As a dog vs Conference / 9-4 SU as a dog vs Conference

Lafayette's Billy Napier is 7-3 ATS as an underdog. In the four games Louisiana has been less than a 7-point underdog, ULL has won three of them outright.

In Georgia's past five games as an underdog, the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS with three outright wins.

True road dogs (not neutral site games) are 14-5 ATS since 2005 (Cinci, UAB, Hawaii, Laffayette)

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

Conf Championships favs that don't lose

In conf championship games favs of >3 points won 23 straight if they met this team earlier in the season and didn't lose that game by 14+

Using these teams in a 6.5 point teaser won 21 of 23 and a perfect 23-0 in 10 point teaser

SU: 23-0-0 (16.48, 100.0%) on Oklahoma, Boise, App State, Memphis, and Ohio State

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

Hawaii has not covered in any of their past 22 conference losses, failing to cover by 15 ppg

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

MAC Title Game Road/Neutral:

Miami OH 1Q ATS 7-0

7-7 @ BSU (W)
0-0 @ Oh (W)
6-0 @ KSU (W)
6-0 @ WMU (W)
5-7 @ OSU (W)
10-0 @ Cin (W)
0-3 @ Iowa (W)

CMU 1Q ATS 3-3

3-3 @ BSU (W)
7-3 @ Buf (W)
7-7 @ BG (L)
0-10 @ WMU (L)
0-7 @ Mia (W)
0-16 @ Wis (L)

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

SuperBook on GA-LSU

Tigers from -6 to -5.5, then up to -7

"Basically the public has been hitting nothing but LSU. Once we saw 7 or higher, we started to fade LSU a little bit. So we're taking LSU money."

"We're comfortable with where we're at, with Georgia getting a touchdown. There's also some liability on the Over"

Total opens 55.5, dips to 55, rises to 57 by this morning

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

William Hill on GA-LSU

Tigers open -6.5, spend all week at -7

"Really good handle on this game,” but it's tilted toward the favorite LSU. “We’re gonna need the ‘dog for sure.”

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

William Hill on WIS-OHIOST

Buckeyes from -16.5 to -17, back to -16

"Wisconsin large, that’s what we’ll need. Large. Buckeyes money in every form and fashion. That’s gonna be a big one for us.”

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

SuperBook on WIS-OHIOST

Ohio State from -16.5 to -16, back to -16.5 by midweek

"We're gonna need Wisconsin. Everyone is hammering Ohio State."

Also Buckeyes parlay liability, and Over liability at 56.5 and 57

Total 57.5

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

SuperBook on BAY-OKLA

Oklahoma from -10 to -8, now -8.5

"We have Baylor liability as of now, but really not too much action. Taken bets at +9. This is one of those games that could change before kickoff."

"It's not like the public has been hammering Baylor all week."

Also liability on the Over

Total reached 66.5 this morning, now 65

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

William Hill on BAY-OKLA

Oklahoma from -10 to -7.5, back to -9 by Thursday

“Actually, we need the favorite right now, More straight bets on Baylor, more parlays on Baylor, more teasers on Baylor."

"We are sure we’ll see some Oklahoma money by kickoff, but indications are that betting will be pretty even or a small decision.”

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

SuperBook on VA-CLEM

Clemson from -28.5 to -29.5, back to -28.5

"Not too much money on this yet, small liability to Clemson. As the day goes on, we'll probably see more Clemson action. A few people taking fliers on Virginia +1600 moneyline."

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

SuperBook on ULL-APPST

Appalachian State from -6 to -5.5 to -6.5, back to -6

"We have App State money right now, betting -6 and -6.5. A good chunk of parlay liability on App State, too."

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

William Hill on ULL-APPST

"We'll need Louisiana-Lafayette for something. It won't be a big decision, but we'll definitely need the 'dog."

Appalachian State from -6 to -6.5

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

William Hill on MIAOH-CMU

Central Michigan from -5.5 to -7

"We're gonna need the 'dog for sure, it's just of matter of how much."

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

SuperBook on MIAOH-CMU

Central Michigan from -6.5 to -6 to -6.5

"A little bit of Central Michigan money at 6.5. Decent liability on over 54.5. Also parlay liability on the Over."

Total from 54 to 56

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

SuperBook on UAB-FAU

Florida Atlantic from -7 to -8

"Not a crazy amount of action. Some Florida Atlantic parlay liability, and small liability on the Under."

Total ticks from 50 to 49.5

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

William Hill on UAB-FAU

"Definitely gonna need the 'dog. We're gonna need a lot of 'dogs."

Florida Atlantic from -7 to -8.5

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

William Hill on CIN-MEM

Memphis from -10 to -9

"It's actually pretty even. Good two-way game, and a lot of money for the Over. We're definitely gonna need the Under."

Total 58

NewYorkKnight · Dec 7, 2019

SuperBook on CIN-MEM

Memphis from -9.5 to -10, down to -9, now back to -10

"Decent liability on Memphis. Took a $10,000 bet at -9, and public came in and started betting -9.5."

Parlay/moneyline parlay on Memphis, too