Sunday Service Play Thread 12/15/2019

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RALPH MICHAELSFOOTBALL PLAYS

• Game: (315) Seattle Seahawks at (316) Carolina Panthers
  Date/Time: Dec 15 2019 1:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Seattle Seahawks -5.5 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  #315 5% Game of the Month Seattle -5.5 Carolina
  Fading sloppy teams this late in the season has been a moneymaker especially those that that had over 4 turnovers in theri last games. On the Panthers side we have a team that has lost 5 straight with little to play for and questions who on this team will back next season. Seattle meanwhile are 8-2-2 ATS on the road and have gone 15-4-3 ATS off a SU loss. The Panthers defense is allowing 5.2 YPC rushing meaning Carson will be able to run the ball which makes Russell Wilson’s play action more effective plus you can expect him to get a few FD’s rushing extending drives.

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 15 2019 1:00PM
319 MIA 3.5(-110) Southpoint vs 320 NYG double-dime bet

Victor King (King Creole) 10 Star Game of the Year - OVER 50 Tennessee Titans/Houston Texans

Speaking of Victor King (King Creole), I see he has come from behind the last two weeks to take the lead in the Wise Guys Contest - https://drive.google.com/file/d/11VM...ew?usp=sharing.

Mike Lombardi 39-19 ATS YTD

Seahawks -6 or better
Cowboys +1
Eagles -4 or better
Buccaneers -3.5

leans;
Bears
Jets 12/12 TNF

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 15 2019 4:25PM
327 ATL 11.0(-113) Pinnacle vs 328 SFX triple-dime bet

Analysis:

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 15 2019 1:00PM
308 WAS 4.5(-110) Westgate vs 307 PHI double-dime bet

Analysis:

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 15 2019 4:05PM
332 LAC 7.5(-110) William Hill vs 331 MIN double-dime bet

Analysis: Three 2 team 6 point Teasers, each one 2 units, -120

321 Buf 7.5 with 330 Dal 7.5
330 Dal 7.5 with 332 Chargers 7.5
321 Buf 7.5 with 332 Chargers 7.5


Be sure to get 7.5 on all the teasers, not +7..........

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 15 2019 1:00PM
308 WAS 4.5(-110) Westgate vs 307 PHI double-dime bet

Analysis: Here are my Friday Notes for the NFL this week:

… Tbay -3.5 Det, 47
UNDER 46: LEAN
One QB not 100%, and a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] string QB…….
The Big Question: Winston Health:
Thumb, Probable
Winston: Has thrown Int 3 times this year ON HIS 1[SUP]st[/SUP] ATTEMPT
Winston: Has thrown 5 pk 6’s
Given all the T/os, do we want to back him at less than 100%??
And likely without his best WR Mike Evans?

Det: Blough: Worst QB in the NFL?
14 points in 1[SUP]st[/SUP]quarter……13 points in next 7 quarters
Surprised Chicago throwing deep in 1[SUP]st[/SUP] quarter……
12/8 @Min, 24/40 205 60%, 5.1 1/2Sacked 5x QBR 21
11/28 Chic 22/38 280 58%, 7.4 2/1 Sacked 2x QBR 54



… Phi/WASH 4.5, 40
I LIKE WASH 4.5 I BET WASH 4.5
KEY Takeaway:
Eagles INJURED AGAIN ON OFFENSE
WR Aguilar Missed MNF, their best WR Jeffery LEFT Game 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half
Jeffery injury is “significant” he may miss rest of yr….Rotoworld
LT Lane Johnson LEFT GAME 2Q………….doubtful rest ofseason….Rotoworld….. he is their best OLineman
Wentz was literally throwing to practice Squad WRs………
Wash D has quietly been playing good Football
D has given up just under 20 points the last 8 games…….
Held Opponents to 20,21,16, 34, 24, 19,9,16 last eight games
I LIKE WASH 4.5 I BET WASH 4.5







… Chic/GB-4.5, 40.5
Pass
GB 10-3 with subpar stats
Have only outscored opponents by 39 points
Have A YPP Differential YTD of MINUS -.6!
Unheard of number for a 10-3Team…
Have been outgained in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]half of year
By 68 yards per play!

ANOTHER Curious GB home Line:
GB has a 4 for HFA
So line is saying these are almost equal teams!
Chicago may well be an improved team in December:
Trubisky ran vs. Dallas 10x for 63 yards (had not run for 20 yards ALL YEAR)…… only has 143 YTD
In 2018 he ran for over 20 yards in half of his games
And finished with 421 rush yards
Key player Returning:
Chic Run Stuffer Akeim Hicks ready to return
Has only played 3 games YTD………..
… NE Cin
Lean Cin
Bengals improved with Dalton
VS. Jets 22/37 243 6.6 1/0 QBR 50
Vs. Clev 22/38 262 6.9 0/1 QBR 27
Defense playing much harder also
Jets only 271 yards
Clev only 333 yards….
NE distractions from filming a non issue?
NO team has had as many possible distractions as NE, they can handle it
Brady Concerns: Now No 18 in QBR (Mayfield 19, Jones 20)
Just a lean: Power Ratings do not support it…..







… Hou/Ten-3-100
LIKE TEN
I have the Titans the Better team
Titans playing at a much higher level with Tannehill
And playing their best Football of Season
4-0 SU ATS RUN
Scored 31 or more points in every game
Tannehill 9 TD/1 INT (15/5 YTD), now no 13 in QBR…….
Puzzling LINE MOVE OF THE WEEK:
Money is coming ON Houston…..
Market expects Hou to bounce back after the 24-38 loss to Den
Titans have the superior YTD Stats
YPP Dif Ten +.4, Hou 0
And Titans are clearly better now w/ Tannehill




… Sea/Car 6, 48.5
PASS
Sea: OVERRATED: 10-3, PPG only +20 (more like a 7-6 team!)
Sea 9-1 games decided by 1 score (8 or less),and 2 OT wins
Car: Team Motivation?
Money POURED in AGAINST them vs. Atl (Car went from +2 to +3.5)
Team expressed how much they liked Ron Rivera
And brought little to no energy in 20-40 loss @ Atl……..
Prop Bet: Chris Carson OVER 70 rush yards, Sea
With No2 RB Penny out for yr, expect a big game from Carson…….









… Den/KC -9.5
Lean KC
KC UNDERATED: 3 Games without Mahomes…. Matt Moore
3 Losses with Mahomes not 100% Indy, Hou, @ Titans
So offensive stats are depressed.
Despite that, KC is 3rd in NFL at 6.3 yards/play
And KC D should continue to improve with new DC Spagnaola
2018: KC D 26[SUP]th[/SUP] (Football Outsiders)
2019: KC D 13[SUP]th[/SUP] (Football Outsiders)
Bad Spot for Denver:
Win on the Road as a big underdog (8 point Dog)
Now go on Road again as a similar size dog (9.5)
Drew Lock: Played INCREDIBLE vs. Hou
12/1 Chargers 18/28 64.3% 134 4.8 2/1 QBR 47
12/8 @ Hou 22/27 309 81.5% 11.4 3/1 QBR 99
Just a lean:
KC Mahomes, Banged up hand, is he 100%?



Mia/NYG -3.5, 46.5
LIKE MIA
MIA: UNDERVALUED:
Since Fitz Returned, only outscored by 26 points in 9 games
(3 per game)
Mia: 7 scores, all fgs lost week (easily could have won game with just 1 TD)

MIA: Huge Edge at QB:
Fitzpatrick ranked 8[SUP]th[/SUP] at QBR 63.4
(1[SUP]st[/SUP] 2 games QBR 39, 6), vs. Balt/NE
Fitz Actively Running (7 carries 65 yards last week)
Putting in all on the line………full effort
Mia: “Duplicate Road Trip”
Travel AGAIN to NY
Same City, Same Routine, etc




… Buf Pit -2 36.5
LIKE UNDER LEAN BUF
Both teams, HUGE edges to Defense:
Buffalo: No 22 in Offense, 5 in D
Pitt: No 30 in Offense, 3 in D
Both coaches very likely to play conservatively, knowing mistakes likely to decide game
Also, forecast calls for possible snow/wind Sunday……
Pitt: Overrated:
They now have 4 wins in 1 score games this year where they got a ST/Def Score
Vs. Rams, Indy, Chargers, Az








… Jax/Oak -6.5, 45.5 Lean OAK
Jax: Dreams crushed, lame duck coach? Team has Quit?
Minshew return has no impact…….
Defense gave up 525 yards last week to Chargers…
Jax: 0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS run, All 5 losses by 17 ormore…..
Oak: HUGE GAME LAST GAME EVER in OAKLAND
HFA should be substantial…….
Just a lean:
Oak Injuries:
RB Josh Jacobs
T Trent Brown
WR Hunter Renfrow OUT
TE Moreau OUT
And Oak D has collapsed
Giving up 34 points every game last 3 games……..





… Clev -2/AZ, 48
LIKE AZ
TEASER: AZ +2 to +8
Shedule Edge: AZ
AZ: Final Home Game, Final realistic chance for a win
With Games @Sea, @Rams, I expect a full effort
Clev: Sandwich Schedule Spot
@Pit, Cin, now @Az, finish Balt @ Cin
Only non division game last 5 games











… Atl/SF -10.5, 47
LIKE ATL
Flat Spot for 49ers?
VS. GB, @Balt, @N Orl
One of the toughest 3 game stretches a team will see
AND they have been away from home for 8 days (week in Fla)
And Rams and @Sea to finish the year………
49ers Injuries:
C Richburg OUT for year
CB Richard Sherman likely out 2 weeks (Hamstring)
DL Dee Ford likely out 3 weeks
DL Dj Jones, sprained Ankld
CB Williams, concussion
Atl playing better football:
3-2 SU/ATS
One of the losses was by 1 ATS @ Saints………
All 3 wins were blowout wins….


… Rams/Dal 1.5
LIKE DAL
Dal: 6-7 team despite great stats/big name players
Last in league in Special Teams
They just cut their kicker Maher, brought in Forbath
Maher had 10 missed fgs, most in the League
Dallas is ranked LAST in special teams.
Punting: Last in League in net punting also….
Dallas: Schedule Advantage:
Dallas Called out for Thursday Loss To Bears (10 days to be ready)
Rams: Short Week off Sunday Night Must Win vs. Sea
Dallas Stat Edges:
YPP Differential: Dallas +1.3 (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in league!)
YPP Differential: Rams +.9 (4th in League!)
Line: OVERREACTION to Chicago loss
Dallas WAS -3.5 in this game……..NOW they are PLUS 1.5??




Min/Chargers 2.5
LEAN Chargers
Power RATING PLAY: I only make the game pk
Chargers are 5-8, but they are a well above average team
They lost 3 straight games after being 4-5 where they clearly won stats
@Oak, KC, @ Den
Chargers 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in league in yards/play differential , +1.3 !
Chargers are as healthy as they have been all year:
Defense: S’s Derwyn James Phillips have returned
Offense:
Melvin Gordon, Hunter Henry, Russell Okung all back……
Bad Spot for Cousins
On grass, not a 1pm ESTstart time
5-14-1 SU, 6-13-1 ATS





… MNF Indy/N Orl -9, 46
PASS
Indy without TY Hilton now 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS
Ty unlikely to play, and cluster injuries at Receiver
TE Eric Ebron on IR 11/26
Also, WR Parris Campbell went on IR 12/9
N Orl Injury issues:
TE Jared Cook Concussion
OLINE Cluster Injuries: C clapp, T peat OUT
LB Cluster Injuries: Alonso and Klein both ?
DL Cluster Injuries: DE Davenport, DT Rankins both OUT

I know it is early, but heard Warren teasing a side he likes this Sunday on the Lefkoe podcast. Anyone have his plays this week? Need to get our super contest picks in and I don’t want to find out I am going against him...TIA

Football Jesus free pick is Falcons plus points
FREE PICKS 2019 SO FAR ALL sports 112-53-3FREE football picks 33-16-2 2019

yossarian said:

I know it is early, but heard Warren teasing a side he likes this Sunday on the Lefkoe podcast. Anyone have his plays this week? Need to get our super contest picks in and I don’t want to find out I am going against him...TIA

Click to expand...

sharp is not good at sides. you shouldnt be looking at them at all

313 Houston Texans Over 48 (-115) (1 unit)
325 Cleveland Browns first half Over 22.5 (-125) (0.5 units)
327 Atlanta Falcons Over 47 (-118) (0.5 units


Two-team, 6-point teaser (0.75 units)
321 Buffalo Bills +8
332 LA Chargers +8.5


313 Houston Texans first half Over 24 (-107) (0.5 units)
325 Cleveland Browns -3 +105 (0.75 units)
332 LA Chargers moneyline +109 (0.75 units)

looking for 1 person to chip in $8 with aaronjacob and myself for sharp premium NFL play.

or if people are still interested in MTI, chip in $10. MTI the past 2 weeks have been around 50%. Nothing exciting, but they are hitting their top plays which is good.

POINTWISE PHONES

3-Chicago, Buffalo, Tennessee
2-New England, Washington, New Orleans

Marc Lawrence

Red Hot NFL Perfect System Club Perfect Play!
Cardinals

Murder Angle NFL Sunday Night Kill Play!
Bills

Cowherd Blazin' 5


He is going with 6 this week:
Bears
Rams
Texans
Raiders
BILLS
Seattle

GoodFella

NFL Game Of the Year

Rams +3

Jeff Ma

LAC +2.5
Chi +5
Hou +3