Bowl Season Thread: Also Recap, Army-Navy

ofred · Dec 9, 2019

Totally missed it on the Oregon game. Made the capping mistake of putting too much stock in their recent 2 games, without looking at how well they played vs. the better teams. The Ducks showed almost no new wrinkles against ASU, Arizona or the Beavers. Utah's OL was also exposed.

The Boise game was nerve wracking as their QB looked so damned apprehensive 1H. Hawaii moved the ball 1H, but couldn't convert their scoring chances. Boise finally pulled away.

LSU: Joe Burrow was a master. Even when Georgia's defense made a great play, the LSU offense just kept coming at them. I have to give LSU credit all year for not letting momentum shifts bother them one iota. Jake Fromm was the only QB in decline, although he was missing most of his playmakers.

YTD: 117-103, +6.15 units

Bowl Season is almost upon us. It is more like a one game season than an extension of the regular season. Some teams really prepare well, include some talented freshmen, and play it as if it's a meaningful game. Other teams are just glad to be in a bowl and travel, some are disappointed in their bowl placement, some are missing their coaching staff, and others just come out flat. Last season, I was rolling along pretty well until New Year's Day, when I lost 2 large plays. The Clemson win over Alabama was a nice way to end the season.

ofred · Dec 9, 2019

Have hit this one the last 4-5 seasons. Hope it continues here.

4* Navy -10 (-120)
1* Navy 1H -6 This game has been close for the past 5 seasons. Army finally rebuilt their program. I also thought about taking Army since these academy games tend to be close, each team knowing pretty well how to defend the other. Also, every bettor(large and small) seemed to be on Army in their Hawaii game. After losing that, I thought would the books and bettors avoid Army like the plague- in turn, making them a good contrarian play? But no. The better contrarian play is Navy. The books and sharps have set this line so high trying their darn best to get Army money, even though this has been a tight matchup in recent years.

Army has only 5 wins this season, the best of them vs. Rice or UTSA- two bums. Also, they have injury issues at QB. Their best passer, Laws, is out. Hopkins and the 3rd stringer, both were removed from the Hawaii game with injuries. In fact, Hopkins has been injured on and off all season. They finished the Hawaii game with their 4th stringer. Hopkins and Anderson might play, although Army doesn't release any injury updates. But whomever plays, their passing game looks weak. Their defense is much weaker this season. That's important because Navy has the quick-shifting speedster Malcolm Perry. They also have up and comer Jamale Carothers, another back with great moves and speed. All of their receivers were freshmen and sophomores last season, and now they've developed nicely. The Navy OL also has been one of the best in the AAC. With Perry's speed and quickness, he is being considered as an NFL slotback. His passing has improved, although he is not the kind of QB that can sling a 20-25 yard pass on a rope down the middle of the field. Good on long throws and short throws. Navy's defense is vulnerable to the pass, but that is not likely to hurt them much in this game. If Perry holds up the whole game(he's only 5-9, 190 lbs.), Navy should be able to roll.

indiana · Dec 9, 2019

Fred......well done this season, thank you...….nice way to finish...….continue your

winning ways thru the Holiday Season...…….on Navy with you...…...BOL...…...indy

ofred · Dec 9, 2019

indiana said:
Fred......well done this season, thank you...….nice way to finish...….continue your

winning ways thru the Holiday Season...…….on Navy with you...…...BOL...…...indy

Thanks Indy. 6 units not much to crow about, but it's better than the red.

gander1 · Dec 9, 2019

Let's also not forget that Army has won this game three years in a row (after losing 14 straight times). That means that most of the Navy starters have not tasted victory in this intense rivalry in their college football career. Double digits is a lot to lay but the right side is Navy. Also, Navy makes for a compelling teaser play with a full slate of NFL games this upcoming weekend.

o fred said:
Have hit this one the last 4-5 seasons. Hope it continues here.

4* Navy -10 (-120)
1* Navy 1H -6 This game has been close for the past 5 seasons. Army finally rebuilt their program. I also thought about taking Army since these academy games tend to be close, each team knowing pretty well how to defend the other. Also, every bettor(large and small) seemed to be on Army in their Hawaii game. After losing that, I thought would the books and bettors avoid Army like the plague- in turn, making them a good contrarian play? But no. The better contrarian play is Navy. The books and sharps have set this line so high trying their darn best to get Army money, even though this has been a tight matchup in recent years.

Army has only 5 wins this season, the best of them vs. Rice or UTSA- two bums. Also, they have injury issues at QB. Their best passer, Laws, is out. Hopkins and the 3rd stringer, both were removed from the Hawaii game with injuries. In fact, Hopkins has been injured on and off all season. They finished the Hawaii game with their 4th stringer. Hopkins and Anderson might play, although Army doesn't release any injury updates. But whomever plays, their passing game looks weak. Their defense is much weaker this season. That's important because Navy has the quick-shifting speedster Malcolm Perry. They also have up and comer Jamale Carothers, another back with great moves and speed. All of their receivers were freshmen and sophomores last season, and now they've developed nicely. The Navy OL also has been one of the best in the AAC. With Perry's speed and quickness, he is being considered as an NFL slotback. His passing has improved, although he is not the kind of QB that can sling a 20-25 yard pass on a rope down the middle of the field. Good on long throws and short throws. Navy's defense is vulnerable to the pass, but that is not likely to hurt them much in this game. If Perry holds up the whole game(he's only 5-9, 190 lbs.), Navy should be able to roll.

ofred · Dec 9, 2019

Gander, Good point on the Navy players not enjoying even one win yet. The motivation is always high for both sides of this rivalry game, but Navy has a little extra. Army players have their 3 wins, their pride intact.

TimmyRules · Dec 10, 2019

BOL Fred on bowl games

ofred · Dec 11, 2019

2* Buffalo -6.5 Hate to take MAC teams in the bowl games, and this might be my last. However, Buffalo is returning to a bowl after losing in one last season. Charlotte in their first ever, and excited to win their last 5 games to get there. But if you look at who they played (UTEP, MTSU, ODU, UNT, an underachieving Marshall team with a weak QB), then it's not as impressive. Charlotte is the kind of bowl team that I run away from- terrible run defense, terrible D overall, a good running game, but an unreliable passing game. Their running stats are inflated by playing some bottom-feeder defenses. Buffalo is 33rd in D Efficiency, while Charlotte is 121st. Buffalo's defense has allowed 2 less YPC than Charlotte. Yes, 2 yards for EVERY carry.

The main guy in this game that will make or break this play is Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson. His moves, speed and shiftiness are a thing of beauty. His backup also had a 1,000 yard season. Their QB is a game manager, but has developed in his role nicely toward the end of the season. Buffalo also has some good players both on the DL and in the secondary. This should limit the Charlotte offense somewhat. Benny Lemay is a tough RB to tackle, but UB has the big boys up front that can clog the lanes. I trust HC Leopold will have his team ready this season, while Charlotte is (hopefully) happy just to be there. Leopold has had much success motivating and coaching up his players.

ofred · Dec 12, 2019

5* Georgia Southern -5 Liberty University, presided over by hypocrite Jerry Falwell, signed hypocrite Hugh Freeze to an extension. Without getting to into Freeze's scandals at Ole Miss, because after all, this is about betting to win some cash….Let's not dwell on the devout and holy man who called 12 different escort services(high-priced hookers) while at Ole Miss. Then lied about it. Let's dwell on Freeze's other multiple violations at Ole Miss- which he blamed on the previous coach, Houston Nutt- who sued him rightfully for defamation. Freeze did that to delay the sanctions coming down so he wouldn't lose players to transfers, and lose recruits. He hung those players out to dry, and his whole team, for selfish reasons. THAT'S what Liberty has for a coach. The Liberty players probably can see right through this jerk.

Anyways, Liberty had a cupcake schedule- UMass, Rutgers, NMSU twice, UNM, Maine, Hampton, and of the decent teams- only one nice win- Buffalo in their 3rd game. Liberty gave up 44 points to Maine, made the Rutgers offense look good(losing), and basically built their 7-5 record on beating scrubs. ULL ran for 407 yards on them. This, to me, is the team that most resembles Georgia Southern. Liberty is 107th in defensive efficiency, right next to ODU and San Jose St. They will struggle all game to handle the GS option offense, which should monopolize the clock and the scoreboard. Steve Calvert, the Liberty QB, is considered the offensive linchpin for the offense. Yet he is very inconsistent, and as a senior, not even under consideration as an NFL draft pick or even an UFA. Georgia Southern has two very good cover CBs, and this should offset some of the Liberty passing game. GS has come back from the dead of 2 seasons ago, and is the kind of bowl team that tends to play well in these early games.

ofred · Dec 13, 2019

FCS Games: About .3 or .4 units on each.

Northern Iowa +19.5 James Madison killed Monmouth last week, but Northern Iowa has one of the better defenses in the FCS. Too many points on a cool, wet day vs. a strong D.

Illinois State +23.5 NDSU likely wins another championship this season, but they aren't as dominant as in the past. Lots of young players. Illinois State has a RB that is good enough that he can move the chains and drain time off the clock. Illinois State also has a pretty good defense.

ofred · Dec 13, 2019

1* JMU/ Northern Iowa- under 46 My bad. This game is Friday night, when it should be near freezing with either freezing rain or just cold rain. With NIU's defense, and a good JMU defense, this has low scoring, very little passing success written all over it. One of those games where it's hard to hold onto the ball, and coaches get conservative. JMU goes for the win more than style points.

Knightrofins · Dec 13, 2019

Full write ups.

Glad to see you back in the black!!

Good luck

ofred · Dec 13, 2019

o fred said:
1* JMU/ Northern Iowa- under 46 My bad. This game is Friday night, when it should be near freezing with either freezing rain or just cold rain. With NIU's defense, and a good JMU defense, this has low scoring, very little passing success written all over it. One of those games where it's hard to hold onto the ball, and coaches get conservative. JMU goes for the win more than style points.

Weather update: Starts at 7 PM. Should be raining and about 37-38 degrees throughout the game. No wind, but cold rain tends to have an effect on the hands and the ball.

ofred · Dec 14, 2019

1-0 start. Go Navy!

2* UW/Boise St. - under 50 The Las Vegas Bowl has to be a disappointment for both teams, although Boise at least gets a PAC 12 opponent. The Huskies will be without their starting LT, who is assumed to be drafted in Rounds 2-3, and their TE, who led them in receptions. QB Jacon Eason has been inconsistent this year and might return for his senior season. Not all his fault as he has almost no dependable receivers. They are inexperienced, lack physical toughness, drop too many passes, and Eason has had to count to much on his run game- which is decent. Lots of running is good for under plays. Boise is 26th and UW is 14th in defensive efficiency, with Boise placing 7 players in the top two teams of the All Mt. West Defensive Team.

In my observations of Boise under QB Jaylon Henderson, who was the 3rd stringer, but now the starter, is that he is very limited. Against Hawaii and CSU, two awful defenses, he was able to make enough plays to hang onto the starting job. But he is hesitant to throw the ball, and has a weak arm. Can hit short passes or float long ones or fades. But vs. a much better defense, like UW, I think he'll struggle. He's got mobility, but is not all that fast or quick or elusive. I think Boise also runs the ball often here, taking the pressure off of him. One caveat is that Boise always pulls out some trick plays in games like this, and UW's defense better be ready. Yet this Husky defense is the best D Boise will have faced this season, and new head coach Jimmy Lake, their DC, will have his defense ready. Boise will have to make Eason uncomfortable in the pocket, or he could have a good day.

MAGAking1 · Dec 14, 2019

Win or lose I find that at least you have a good understanding of teams and the game.
Best success on Bowls!

AlistairCookie · Dec 14, 2019

Navy is going to roll - Army doesn’t have the speed to keep up with Navy this year. It’s always a concern for Perry on whether or not he’ll stay healthy. He took some really bad hits vs Memphis early in the season that I thought would affect him but he’s played every game. He’s a tough kid.

Serbone · Dec 14, 2019

Any news of the health of the Army QBs? #2 is out, #1 & # 3 were dinged last game...

AlistairCookie · Dec 14, 2019

Serbone said:
Any news of the health of the Army QBs? #2 is out, #1 & # 3 were dinged last game...

Not trying to be flip but it doesn’t matter.

Serbone · Dec 14, 2019

AlistairCookie said:
Not trying to be flip but it doesn’t matter.

This matters A LOT.

#2 is the only halfway decent passer, he is OUT, we know that already.
#1 is a solid runner & top option QB, he was taken out of the Hawaii game, dinged.
#3 is, well, a # 3, he was taken out of the Hawaii game, dinged.
Army finished the Hawaii game blowout with #4.

Army does not issue injury reports.

Line shot up to -11.5 today, that might be indicative of something going on... I already moved early in the week at -10, if the pregame show indicates # 1 is out I will load up more on Navy. Or even wait till in game if the Army #1 does not take the field.

ofred · Dec 14, 2019

It matters even though Hopkins isn't much of a passer. He has been injured and taken out of a few games. I'd rather see the number 3 guy in there. He seems like a guy that can break off a decent run, but is almost no threat as a passer, and would more likely turn it over. Perry stays healthy, Navy should cover. Carothers is also a small, but fast and elusive guy.

The 11.5 line is hopefully an indication that Army has QB injuries that lingered. Unbelievable line considering how close these games have been. Vegas wants Army $.

Bowl Season Thread: Also Recap, Army-Navy

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