Thursday Night Info

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

Market update

8:20 p.m. ET: New York Jets (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (11-2)

This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 14.5-point home favorite. Two thirds of bets, both sharp and public, are laying the points with the Ravens. This lopsided support has pushed the line up to 16.5. Many books were off the board initially as Lamar Jackson was questionable with a quad injury. However, Jackson has been upgraded to probable and will play.

Two-thirds of bets are taking the over, but the total has barely budged from 44.5 to 45.

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

The Jets have value as a road dog and a big road dog with a lower end total. Road dogs plus 11 or more with a total of 46 or less are 130-92 ATS (58.6%) since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports. Big December dogs plus 12 or more are 57% ATS.

However, Thursday Night home favorites have an edge in the short week, going 72-50 ATS (59%). Big Thursday Night favorites -13 or more are 8-2 ATS (80%).

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

Primetime unders are 27-16 (63%) this season

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

John Hussey is the lead official. Home teams are 54.2% ATS with Hussey as the head ref and unders are 58.3%.

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

Sports Interaction

73% of the betting action like the Ravens (-16.5) over the Jets

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

Sharp bettors at SuperBook and CG Technology took Ravens -15.5

Line currently 16.5

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

MGM Race & Sports

A bettor has $100,000 parlay that pays $129,000 riding on Ravens / Jets Under 45. Hit first leg Monday night on Eagles ML (-500). Same bettor won $20,000 on Eagles ML

MGM needs the Jets

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

Draft Kings Sportsbook

Ravens (-16.5)

69% of $$ ... 64% Tix on Baltimore

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

NFL home favorites of 14 or more with WP >= 80 (ATS)

Since 2000: 33-19
Since 2010: 17-9
Since 2015: 11-5

Road dogs of 14 or more with WP < 40

Since 2000: 45-52-1
Since 2010: 20-26
Since 2015: 8-15

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

The Ravens have won 30 straight as a favorite of 10+

15-15 ATS

tulah · Dec 12, 2019

I just heard the injury report earlier . Hard to back this wounded Jets team. Ravens might not punt the ball tonight, add to that Harbaugh has no problem running up the score.
Tough to lay the big number but I cant make a case for NYJ. Feel like the Ravens can name the score tonight.

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

Double digit non divisional home favorites after Week 10

(ATS)

Since 2000: 84-61
Since 2010: 34-22
Since 2015: 15-12

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

Global market

Theory is that the public is all over Baltimore and that's the reason for the big line move. The public is indeed on the Ravens but it's not that strong. Sharp money split but lean is definitely to the Ravens

Total is seeing mixed public / sharp action

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

Wager Street

Sharp Action

Ravens (small)

NewYorkKnight · Dec 12, 2019

SuperBook

After a little back-and-forth line movement Sunday-Tuesday, this line has jumped 2.5 points the past two days. Currently 17.

“We are seeing a lot of Ravens money coming in, from both the sharps and the public. The majority of the sharp action came in on the Ravens -15.5. We will need the Jets come kickoff.”

SuperBook opened the total at 45 and dropped to 44 Thursday morning, then ticked up to 44.5 by lunch hour in Vegas.

“The total has seen some sharp play on the Under"