Sunday Service Play Thread 12/22/2019

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Fezzik | NFL Total - Sunday, Dec 22 2019 1:00PM
467 PIT / 468 NYJ UNDER 38.5 William Hilltriple-dime bet

Fezzik | NFL Side - Monday, Dec 23 2019 8:15PM
482 MIN -5.0(-110) Southpoint vs 481 GBP double-dime bet

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 22 2019 1:00PM
464 TEN 3.0(-120) Pinnacle vs 463 NOS double-dime bet

Fezzik | NFL Total - Saturday, Dec 21 2019 4:30PM
453 BUF / 454 NEP UNDER 38.0 William Hill triple-dime bet

Mike Lombardi

42-20-1 ATS YTD

Raiders
Colts
Steelers

Leans;
Eagles (wary of Dak's health)

marc larwence 10* goy i dont know what it is but im gonna guess it is the EAGLES.

g dolla said:

marc larwence 10* goy i dont know what it is but im gonna guess it is the eagles.

Click to expand...

wouldn't surprise me if he took the bills

pats are not that good
bills had them beat months ago a few mistakes cost them they are better now

YankeesRule said:

wouldn't surprise me if he took the bills

pats are not that good
bills had them beat months ago a few mistakes cost them they are better now

Click to expand...

Yes, it should be eagles, bears, browns or bills based upon his newsletter leanings.

I am guessing Bears because he is a marketing tout.
Sunday night TV game underdog to then subsequently capture bowl game sign ups if it wins.

Mark Lawrence
GOY Titans
4* Eagles

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 22 2019 1:00PM
464 TEN 3.0(-120) Pinnacle vs 463 NOS double-dime bet

Analysis: … Det Den -6.5, 38
Den blowout @KC last week giving us value here
Losing big to KC is not a huge negative
And Lock played poorly in the Snow Conditions
Det: My lowest rated NFL team
Den could easily have been a .500 team this year
Given that, laying -6.5 at home is cheap vs. the worst team in the NFL!
… Oak LA -7, 46
HFA: Negligible…………90 % Raiders fans…..
The Big Questions OAKLAND: How will they react to Jax loss?
The Raider LA Fans will take over the stadium
HFA: I gave Chargers 1 for it…….(lowest HFA of year)
Unlikely they will be much impacted by the Oakland Meltdown
Chargers: 7 Turnovers in Viking Loss:
How will THEY react to that debacle?

… jax ATL -7 46.5
Lean Atl
TEASE ATL
Atl playing much better
4-2 SU/ATS
1 of the ATS losses was by 1 point vs. Saints….
All 4 covers were by double digits
Jax gets an unlikely upset win @Oak, now a bad spot on road again
Now they have to travel again to Atl
AND locker room distractions
Players win ruling over mgmt on fines for players missing Treatments during offseason
… N Orl TEN 3, 50.5 LIKE TEN
N Orl, emotionally charged blowout MNF Win
Now they have to travel to Titans
Titans/Tannehill HAD been playing at a very high level for 4 weeks
21-24 loss vs. Hou, should they really now be getting 3 at home?
Titans only 11% to win the Division, however
Titans 58% to make the playoffs!
Team should still be very excited here.







… Nyg WASH -2 42
NYG possible emotional letdown!
Eli got emotional final win at HOME
“See everyone Wed!” he said after the win
Team got an extra day off
Will team be flat off that win, and with Jones at QB?
Wash: Underrated? Could have beaten Philly Sunday
Haskins: Played best game of season (QBR 57) YTD QBR 20
Wash: Playing Good Ball
W vs. Det, W @ CAR
Lose by 5 at GB, lost in final seconds @ Philly
… Pit JETS 3, 38
LIKE JETS LIKE UNDER Pit: Offense simply not there:
Steelers’ Offense has only scored 8 TDs in 7 games
Pit: 3 S/T Def TDS have made the scoreboard look better
VS. Indy/Rams/Az (3 close wins)
And Duck Hodges Regressing:
40 QBR YTD Last 4 games (Buf 17, Az 57, Clev 36, Cin 23)
Jets: Schedule Edge
10 days to prepare off blowout loss @ Baltimore
Vs. Pit tough physical SNF game vs. Buf
… Cin MIA pk 47.5
LIKE MIA PK
How is Cin clearly better than MIA??


Fitz a top 10 QB
Mia undervalued based on 1 bad game vs. Nyg (ELI rally game)
Fitz is a top 10 QB right now for Mia
Ranked 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in QBR at 60.1 (Cousins 9, Ryan 11)
Despite a horrible start to season 1[SUP]st[/SUP] 2 games



… Car INDY -7 46 PASS
The Big Question: Will Grier starts at QB for Carolina
How will team respond?
Sends message to team “We are evaluating talent”
PRESEASON: 8/8 @Chic: 9/16 77 4.8 1/1
8/16 Buf: 10/19 75 3.9 0/1
8/23 @ NE: 4/8 44 5.5 0/0
8/29 Pit : 11/18 189 10.5 1/1
Grier generally ineffective in preseason, but DID play 4 good defenses
Indy: How will THEY respond after being eliminated from Playoffs
Ty Hilton played, but was ineffective MNF
Team was crushed by Saints
… Balt CLV 10 48
LEAN CLEV: Power Ratings Strongly support it
Balt point spread tax in play (10-0 SU Run)
(7-1 ATS Run)
Just A lean:
Clev: Dreamcrusher at 6-8 eliminated from playoffs
Balt: Revenge for their last loss (25-40)
Prop Bet: Chubb UNDER about 100 Rush Yards
We would expect Balt to atone for Chubb 20/165 day…….

… Dal Philly 2.5, 46.5
Dallas No1 Team in the Stats
+1.4 YPPLAY
Dallas No. 1 in NFL in YPP Offense
And Eagles Offense compromised: Injuries:
LT Lane Johnson OUT
2 Best WRs DONE for year (Jackson, now Jeffery)
And no 3 WR Aguilar injured, ?
Team is playing practice squad players at WR….
Eagles: OVERRATED
Miracle cover vs. Wash last week
NEVER lead by more than 4 entire game
And trailed with 1 minute to play……
And fortunate win vs. Giants the week beforew
Won by 6 in OT
Trailed by 14 in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half…….
Dak Health : Limited in Wed practice…….(shoulder)

I THINK THE DAK issue trumps the rest


We have to look to play PHilly given Dak may be MUCH less than 100%
… Az SEA -9.5 56.5
SEA: OVERRATED
10-1 in 1 score games
Sea has only won 1 game ALL YEAR by double digits
And they only yard the yardage in that game by 19
PROP BET Sea Carson OVER 90 RUSH YARDS
Without Penny Carson was the workhorse
254/130 last last week vs. Carolina
Similar dynamics here….Sea should have the lead and grind out a win
Az: Bad spot? Off an upset win, now go on the road……..
Vs a Sea team that already beat them by 17 in Az
… Kc CHIC 5, 45
LEAN KC
KC UNDERATED: 3 Games without Mahomes…. Matt Moore
3 Losses with Mahomes not 100% Indy, Hou, @ Titans
So offensive stats are depressed.
Despite that, KC is 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in NFL at 6.2 yards/play
And KC D should continue to improve with new DC Spagnaola
2018: KC D 26[SUP]th[/SUP] (Football Outsiders)
2019: KC D 11[SUP]th[/SUP] (Football Outsiders)
Held last 4 opponents to 17 or fewer yards……..
Bears: Dream Crusher Eliminated from the Playoffs……..With this being their last home game, they likely still bring a good effort

Brad Feinberg

Jets, Saints , Cowboys

TONY FINN

• FINNs NFL GAME of the MONTH
  Game: (477) Arizona Cardinals at (478) Seattle Seahawks
  Date/Time: Dec 22 2019 4:25 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Arizona Cardinals 10.0 (-108)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Arizona Cardinals +10 (good to +9)
  4% confidence rating
  (477) Arizona Cardinals at (478) Seattle Seahawks
  Sunday's game analysis posted shortly
  ARIZONA CARDINALS +10
  
• FINNs SUN NITE NFL: BEARS v CHIEFS
  Game: (479) Kansas City Chiefs at (480) Chicago Bears
  Date/Time: Dec 22 2019 8:20 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (good to -7)
  4% confidence rating
  (479) Kansas City Chiefs at (480) Chicago Bears
  Game night analysis posted shortly
  KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -4.5

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=298&p=13027960&viewfull=1#post13027960

Mississippi Kid
Giants -pk 2U
Cardinals +9.5 2U
Tenn +3 1U

Monday
Packers +5 1U

Fezzik | NFL Total - Sunday, Dec 22 2019 4:25PM
475 DAL / 476 PHI UNDER 46.0 William Hilldouble-dime bet

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 22 2019 4:25PM
477 ARI 9.0(-110) William Hill vs 478 SEA double-dime bet

Mississippi Kid
Add On
Falcons Buy to -6.5 -125 1.5U
Bengals pk 1.5U

Marc Lawrence 12/22/19

Phone Service

10* Game of the Year - Tennessee


4* Philadelphia
3* Arizona
3* Chicago

Indian Cowboy

8* Cincinnati