Derek Wilkinson, manager at The SuperBook
No. 3 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 1 Louisiana State Tigers
Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5
When the line posted Dec. 28, it took just more than an hour to move from LSU -3.5 to -5.
“We’ve got a lot of money on LSU. We like Clemson in the game, actually, but we expect the line to go higher closer to game day, 6 or 6.5. And then we expect to see sharp money on Clemson.”
Granted, the sharp play won’t overcome all the public cash on LSU, but that’s fine by The SuperBook’s odds team.
“We do really well on Clemson to win in the futures book. So this could set up to be a monster day for us. We think the sharp side is Clemson, and we’re gonna take our position there.”
The SuperBook opened the total intentionally high at 71.5 and within a couple of hours dropped to 70, where the number sat for a week before ticking to 69.5 Saturday.
“We’ve still got the public betting the Over. It’s two really good teams with really good offenses, so we’re still getting a ton of Over money. It’s not gonna stop. The public is just gonna bet favorite and Over.”
On the big-bet front, Wilkinson said the larger plays so far have come on the favored Bayou Bengals, including a $50,000 wager almost right out of the gate at LSU -4, helping drive that speedy early line movement.
“There are no really big bets on Clemson yet, but I think we’ll get some"
No. 3 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 1 Louisiana State Tigers
Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5
When the line posted Dec. 28, it took just more than an hour to move from LSU -3.5 to -5.
“We’ve got a lot of money on LSU. We like Clemson in the game, actually, but we expect the line to go higher closer to game day, 6 or 6.5. And then we expect to see sharp money on Clemson.”
Granted, the sharp play won’t overcome all the public cash on LSU, but that’s fine by The SuperBook’s odds team.
“We do really well on Clemson to win in the futures book. So this could set up to be a monster day for us. We think the sharp side is Clemson, and we’re gonna take our position there.”
The SuperBook opened the total intentionally high at 71.5 and within a couple of hours dropped to 70, where the number sat for a week before ticking to 69.5 Saturday.
“We’ve still got the public betting the Over. It’s two really good teams with really good offenses, so we’re still getting a ton of Over money. It’s not gonna stop. The public is just gonna bet favorite and Over.”
On the big-bet front, Wilkinson said the larger plays so far have come on the favored Bayou Bengals, including a $50,000 wager almost right out of the gate at LSU -4, helping drive that speedy early line movement.
“There are no really big bets on Clemson yet, but I think we’ll get some"
How the market is shaping up for the college football national championship
Monday at 8 p.m. ET: LSU (14-0, ranked 1st) vs Clemson (14-0, ranked 3rd)
This line opened with LSU listed as a 5-point favorite (some books opened closer to -4). The public is absolutely pounding LSU to the tune of nearly eight-out-of-10 bets, which means this is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided title bouts in recent memory. This heavy support (including some early sharp action) pushed the line up to the key number of 6. That's when we saw some smart money from value-minded wiseguys get down on Clemson at 6. The line either remains at 6 or has fallen to 5.5 depending on the sportsbook.
The total opened at 69. Two-thirds of bets are taking the over. This lopsided action pushed the total up to 70, at which point sharp under buyback dropped it down to 69.5.
Monday at 8 p.m. ET: LSU (14-0, ranked 1st) vs Clemson (14-0, ranked 3rd)
This line opened with LSU listed as a 5-point favorite (some books opened closer to -4). The public is absolutely pounding LSU to the tune of nearly eight-out-of-10 bets, which means this is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided title bouts in recent memory. This heavy support (including some early sharp action) pushed the line up to the key number of 6. That's when we saw some smart money from value-minded wiseguys get down on Clemson at 6. The line either remains at 6 or has fallen to 5.5 depending on the sportsbook.
The total opened at 69. Two-thirds of bets are taking the over. This lopsided action pushed the total up to 70, at which point sharp under buyback dropped it down to 69.5.
The money was lopsided when LSU played the Sooners.....look how that turned out.
Anything can change, and it will as we get closer to Monday, but the money wasn't close to as lopsided when LSU played Oklahoma. On average around the market, LSU was getting around 63% spread $$ ... As of now, LSU on average is getting 80%+ $$ vs. Clemson around the market
For example, at William Hill's 100+ books across the country LSU was getting 53% $$ wagered vs. Oklahoma on game day
Currently at Will Hill, LSU is getting 87% spread $$ vs. Clemson
For example, at William Hill's 100+ books across the country LSU was getting 53% $$ wagered vs. Oklahoma on game day
Currently at Will Hill, LSU is getting 87% spread $$ vs. Clemson
Proposition-bet menu’s action and odds moves, with insights from The SuperBook / PointsBet USA and William Hill
Running Man
Clemson running back Travis Etienne has 1,536 rushing yards in 14 games this season, an average of 109.7 yards per game. However, in the CFP semifinal against Ohio State, Etienne gained just 36 yards on 10 carries. Bettors are expecting something much closer to his normal production in Monday's 8 p.m. ET clash.
“The prop that pops off the page is rushing yards by Etienne,” SuperBook manager Eric Osterman told Covers. “We opened this pretty low, 83.5, and we’re all the way up to 93.5. In the game against Ohio State, our Etienne prop was Over/Under 99.5, and he went way under. So we opened lower, and we’ve taken nothing but Over money, mostly public, but probably some sharp money too.”
Run-Pass Option
At PointsBet USA in New Jersey, head of content Matt Chaprales said prop bettors are most intrigued by LSU’s Joe Burrow and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence.
“So far, the quarterbacks have generated the most interest, including Burrow Under 365.5 passing yards and Under 30.5 rushing yards,” Chaprales said, noting sharp play on the latter. “And Overs for both Trevor Lawrence passing yards (291.5) and rushing yards (53.5).”
The totals on Burrow’s passing yards and Lawrence’s rushing yards haven’t moved. However, Burrow’s rushing yards opened at 32.5 and dropped to 28.5 before buyback took the number to 30.5. Lawrence’s passing yards ticked up from 289.5 to 291.5.
“It’s an interesting dichotomy, as the game itself has trended primarily LSU,” Chaprales said, alluding to the Bayou Bengals opening -4.5 and getting bet up to -6 before dialing back to -5.5. “So despite liking the LSU side, it would appear bettors are viewing Burrow’s prices as slightly inflated after his performance against Oklahoma.”
All Burrow did in that game was throw for seven touchdown passes – all in the first half – and 493 yards in a 63-28 LSU wipeout win as 12.5-point Peach Bowl favorites.
Chaprales said on Burrow’s passing-yards total, about 70 percent of the money is on the Under, and on rushing yards, it’s about 75 percent Under. Conversely, on Lawrence’s passing yards, more than 90 percent of cash is on the Over, and Lawrence’s rushing-yards prop is seeing 60 percent Over action.
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US sportsbooks, said the Burrow passing-yards prop is the only noteworthy mover so far, among a few dozen offerings. William Hill opened Burrow’s total at 363.5 yards, and Under action took it down to 360.5.
Who's on First
With a total of 69.5 at The SuperBook, there’s expected to be plenty of scoring. But bettors are more intrigued by the prospect of a field goal – or the highly unlikely safety; anything but a touchdown – to get things started at the Superdome.
“First score of the game always gets a lot of attention,” Osterman said. “It’s a really big price on the touchdown, minus three dollars, which is pretty high, but it kind of has to be, with the total being where it is. We actually opened even higher, -400, but we’ve seen money on Any Other Score, which we kind of expected with a price like that.
“People like to bet that in the NFL, as well, because you get plus money on it. People are thinking on the first possession, teams might be willing to settle for a field goal. We opened Any Other Score at 3/1, and it’s now +240. We’ll probably have a decent-sized decision. We’ll need the touchdown, and that’s what we’ll want to need.”
Good Reception
Much like his quarterback, wideout Justin Jefferson went haywire in LSU’s Peach Bowl pummeling of Oklahoma. Jefferson finished with 14 catches for a whopping 227 yards and four touchdowns, so his Over/Under yardage prop for the CFP championship has drawn a lot of action at The SuperBook.
“That’s the one getting the most attention for LSU props. He’s seen a lot of money,” Osterman said. “The first couple of bets were sharper plays. We opened him 88.5, got an Over bet and went to 90.5, where we actually saw some bets on both sides. Then he got bet up again at 90.5, and we went to 93.5.
“Then we took some public play on the Over. So the public got the worst of the number, and we’re now at 95.5.”
Running Man
Clemson running back Travis Etienne has 1,536 rushing yards in 14 games this season, an average of 109.7 yards per game. However, in the CFP semifinal against Ohio State, Etienne gained just 36 yards on 10 carries. Bettors are expecting something much closer to his normal production in Monday's 8 p.m. ET clash.
“The prop that pops off the page is rushing yards by Etienne,” SuperBook manager Eric Osterman told Covers. “We opened this pretty low, 83.5, and we’re all the way up to 93.5. In the game against Ohio State, our Etienne prop was Over/Under 99.5, and he went way under. So we opened lower, and we’ve taken nothing but Over money, mostly public, but probably some sharp money too.”
Run-Pass Option
At PointsBet USA in New Jersey, head of content Matt Chaprales said prop bettors are most intrigued by LSU’s Joe Burrow and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence.
“So far, the quarterbacks have generated the most interest, including Burrow Under 365.5 passing yards and Under 30.5 rushing yards,” Chaprales said, noting sharp play on the latter. “And Overs for both Trevor Lawrence passing yards (291.5) and rushing yards (53.5).”
The totals on Burrow’s passing yards and Lawrence’s rushing yards haven’t moved. However, Burrow’s rushing yards opened at 32.5 and dropped to 28.5 before buyback took the number to 30.5. Lawrence’s passing yards ticked up from 289.5 to 291.5.
“It’s an interesting dichotomy, as the game itself has trended primarily LSU,” Chaprales said, alluding to the Bayou Bengals opening -4.5 and getting bet up to -6 before dialing back to -5.5. “So despite liking the LSU side, it would appear bettors are viewing Burrow’s prices as slightly inflated after his performance against Oklahoma.”
All Burrow did in that game was throw for seven touchdown passes – all in the first half – and 493 yards in a 63-28 LSU wipeout win as 12.5-point Peach Bowl favorites.
Chaprales said on Burrow’s passing-yards total, about 70 percent of the money is on the Under, and on rushing yards, it’s about 75 percent Under. Conversely, on Lawrence’s passing yards, more than 90 percent of cash is on the Over, and Lawrence’s rushing-yards prop is seeing 60 percent Over action.
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US sportsbooks, said the Burrow passing-yards prop is the only noteworthy mover so far, among a few dozen offerings. William Hill opened Burrow’s total at 363.5 yards, and Under action took it down to 360.5.
Who's on First
With a total of 69.5 at The SuperBook, there’s expected to be plenty of scoring. But bettors are more intrigued by the prospect of a field goal – or the highly unlikely safety; anything but a touchdown – to get things started at the Superdome.
“First score of the game always gets a lot of attention,” Osterman said. “It’s a really big price on the touchdown, minus three dollars, which is pretty high, but it kind of has to be, with the total being where it is. We actually opened even higher, -400, but we’ve seen money on Any Other Score, which we kind of expected with a price like that.
“People like to bet that in the NFL, as well, because you get plus money on it. People are thinking on the first possession, teams might be willing to settle for a field goal. We opened Any Other Score at 3/1, and it’s now +240. We’ll probably have a decent-sized decision. We’ll need the touchdown, and that’s what we’ll want to need.”
Good Reception
Much like his quarterback, wideout Justin Jefferson went haywire in LSU’s Peach Bowl pummeling of Oklahoma. Jefferson finished with 14 catches for a whopping 227 yards and four touchdowns, so his Over/Under yardage prop for the CFP championship has drawn a lot of action at The SuperBook.
“That’s the one getting the most attention for LSU props. He’s seen a lot of money,” Osterman said. “The first couple of bets were sharper plays. We opened him 88.5, got an Over bet and went to 90.5, where we actually saw some bets on both sides. Then he got bet up again at 90.5, and we went to 93.5.
“Then we took some public play on the Over. So the public got the worst of the number, and we’re now at 95.5.”
