Clemson +5.5

cloverleaf · Jan 7, 2020

LSU had one heck of a season with wins over Texas, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M
and Georgia while winning 10 of 13 games by double digits then dominating Oklahoma in
the Peach Bowl. Strong to say the least...…

Clemson won 12 of 13 regular season games by 14 or more points and showed some class
by coming back from 16 down to beat Ohio State. Respecting how Joey B played out of his
mind this season, I also know Clemson has a quarterback who can match LSU's scoring. The
big difference to me is Clemson has a more experienced team and coaching staff for the NC
game (been there, done that). Clemson's defense is better than LSU's defense in my opinion
and that along with getting 5.5 points pointed me to the South Carolina boys.

Clemson wins three out of four national championships by a 35-31 score.

Just my take and welcome yours...……………………………..

VegasKnows · Jan 7, 2020

cloverleaf said:
LSU had one heck of a season with wins over Texas, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M
and Georgia while winning 10 of 13 games by double digits then dominating Oklahoma in
the Peach Bowl. Strong to say the least...…

Clemson won 12 of 13 regular season games by 14 or more points and showed some class
by coming back from 16 down to beat Ohio State. Respecting how Joey B played out of his
mind this season, I also know Clemson has a quarterback who can match LSU's scoring. The
big difference to me is Clemson has a more experienced team and coaching staff for the NC
game (been there, done that). Clemson's defense is better than LSU's defense in my opinion
and that along with getting 5.5 points pointed me to the South Carolina boys.

Clemson wins three out of four national championships by a 35-31 score.

Just my take and welcome yours...……………………………..

I like Clemson too, except I do not like their red zone success rate (around 87%) and their 13 0f 22 FG's (part of the red zone success %) Going to try the Under here and maybe hedge with an OT prop bet.
If you wait you should get +6.5 by game time.

cloverleaf · Jan 7, 2020

VegasKnows said:
I like Clemson too, except I do not like their red zone success rate (around 87%) and their 13 0f 22 FG's (part of the red zone success %) Going to try the Under here and maybe hedge with an OT prop bet.
If you wait you should get +6.5 by game time.

With LSU's Amanda and Clemson's Venables, you have the two highest paid defensive coordinators in CFB. They will cover
every angle of the game and have their boys ready. I haven't placed a total bet yet but have been leaning to the under.
Will probably wait until game time to decide on a total play. Good luck Vegas...………..

cloverleaf · Jan 8, 2020

National Championship Statistics

LSU......Clemson
1st………..4th...…..Scoring Rank
48.9...….45.3......Points per game
61st...…..12th.....Rushing Rank
167...…...246......Rushing yds game
4.8...……..8.4...….Yards per carry
2nd...…...20th.....Passing rank
397...…...292......Passing yds game
10.7...…..8.6...…..Yards per pass

28th...…..1st...…..Scoring Def rank
21.6...…...11.5....Points allowed game
26th...…..10th.....Rushing yds allowed rank
3.6...……..3.1...….Yds per carry allowed
22nd...…..1st...….Passing yds allowed rank
6.4...……..5.5...….Passing yds per attempt allowed
46th...…..9th...….Tackles for Loss rank
40th...…..18th.....Sacks rank
15th...…..7th...…..Turnover rank

LSUpete · Jan 8, 2020

Clemson played 5 team that were ranked 100th or worse in passing defense (yard allowed per game).
110 Syracuse
119 Florida State
122 Boston College
102 NC State
100 Wake Forest

LSU played against 7 passing defenses that were rated in the top half of the FBS rankings.
11 Bama
31 Georgia
32 Florida
41 Texas A&M
47 Auburn
59 Oklahoma
65 Vandy

So the defenses LSU played were obviously stronger than the defenses Clemson played. Despite this, LSU beat their opponents average yards per game by 161 yards per game. In other words, LSU threw for an average of 161 yards more than their opponents average passing yards given up per game, including exceeding Oklahoma's average yards per game by 310 yards. Yes, you read that right. LSU passed for 532 against Oklahoma, which averaged 222 yards per game allowed passing, or 310 more than their average.

Clemson, on the other hand, playing against weaker pass defenses, only exceeded their opponents' average pass yards allowed per game by 60 yards. This included 2 games (UNC and FSU) where Clemson threw for LESS than the average pass yards allowed by the opponent.

Both teams played one FCS opponent during the season. I excluded both those games from these numbers.

PeePee · Jan 8, 2020

cloverleaf said:
LSU had one heck of a season with wins over Texas, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M
and Georgia while winning 10 of 13 games by double digits then dominating Oklahoma in
the Peach Bowl. Strong to say the least...…

Clemson won 12 of 13 regular season games by 14 or more points and showed some class
by coming back from 16 down to beat Ohio State. Respecting how Joey B played out of his
mind this season, I also know Clemson has a quarterback who can match LSU's scoring. The
big difference to me is Clemson has a more experienced team and coaching staff for the NC
game (been there, done that). Clemson's defense is better than LSU's defense in my opinion
and that along with getting 5.5 points pointed me to the South Carolina boys.

Clemson wins three out of four national championships by a 35-31 score.

Just my take and welcome yours...……………………………..

Agree with everything stated here. I had ride with Clemson on all 3 NC games vs. Bama (won all 3 ATS) and not getting off now. As good as LSU is, and deservedly so, Clemson is still the defending champ and hasn't lost a game in years. I see a pick game so gladly take the extra 5 points. LSU may start out with a lead but the ingame adjustments will be key in this game.

I would wait for more "Clemson has no chance" sentiments to send the line to 6, and from the look of it may go up to 7 by game time with 80% on them.

cloverleaf · Jan 8, 2020

*This is just the second time Clemson has been an underdog the last two seasons.
The last time that happened, Clemson beat Alabama 44-16 in the championship game.
Clemson is 8-2 against the spread and 6-4 straight up as an underdog since the Playoff
started in 2014.

*Clemson is 12-2 straight up and 12-2 against the spread on neutral sites since 2014.
LSU is 8-3 straight up and 8-3 against the spread in the same situation.

*LSU is 9-5 against the spread this year, but it covered in all three games that had a
single-digit spread. Those were wins again Texas, Alabama and Georgia.

*LSU outscored opponents 228-81 in the second quarter. Clemson was also dominate
outscoring teams by 211-38 in the second quarter. (Any props out there for 2nd quarter?)

*Clemson is 17-0 when Travis Etienne has 100 or more yards rushing. LSU is 8-0 when
Clyde Edwards-Helaire runs for 100 yards or more. (Anyone out there who thinks the
running game want be important in this game?)

pathologist · Jan 8, 2020

PeePee said:
Agree with everything stated here. I had ride with Clemson on all 3 NC games vs. Bama (won all 3 ATS) and not getting off now. As good as LSU is, and deservedly so, Clemson is still the defending champ and hasn't lost a game in years. I see a pick game so gladly take the extra 5 points. LSU may start out with a lead but the ingame adjustments will be key in this game.

I would wait for more "Clemson has no chance" sentiments to send the line to 6, and from the look of it may go up to 7 by game time with 80% on them.

Same here, Clemson has been a machine. Think they get the SEC again here

bigpmpn1117 · Jan 8, 2020

LSUpete said:
Clemson played 5 team that were ranked 100th or worse in passing defense (yard allowed per game).
110 Syracuse
119 Florida State
122 Boston College
102 NC State
100 Wake Forest

LSU played against 7 passing defenses that were rated in the top half of the FBS rankings.
11 Bama
31 Georgia
32 Florida
41 Texas A&M
47 Auburn
59 Oklahoma
65 Vandy

So the defenses LSU played were obviously stronger than the defenses Clemson played. Despite this, LSU beat their opponents average yards per game by 161 yards per game. In other words, LSU threw for an average of 161 yards more than their opponents average passing yards given up per game, including exceeding Oklahoma's average yards per game by 310 yards. Yes, you read that right. LSU passed for 532 against Oklahoma, which averaged 222 yards per game allowed passing, or 310 more than their average.

Clemson, on the other hand, playing against weaker pass defenses, only exceeded their opponents' average pass yards allowed per game by 60 yards. This included 2 games (UNC and FSU) where Clemson threw for LESS than the average pass yards allowed by the opponent.

Both teams played one FCS opponent during the season. I excluded both those games from these numbers.

the oklahoma d lsu played against was a far cry from the d that put up those season stats. still, very impressive what lsu did. this clemson d is also much different than the d that destroyed bama last year. for me this is the most interesting playoff championship game yet.

MackDonald · Jan 8, 2020

You fellows have really diced and cut-up every component as to how these two football teams will match-up next Monday night, doing such with the precision of a skilled surgeon, this is very impressive information...........all for free. Like I've said many times, "I'm still learning".

Thanks guys and good luck.

bones1980 · Jan 9, 2020

LSU struggles against GA FH and ga had no offense. Clemson will score a lot

Serbone · Jan 9, 2020

LSU has been impressive but again, look how well Clemson has done against the SEC Champ in the playoffs the last several years... Clemson beat a much tougher team, OSU, despite a slow start, so my current lean is Clemson.
BUT, unless something changes I sure as hell will not go BIG either way, hard to go against either, looks like a great game...!

cloverleaf · Jan 9, 2020

Clemson 14-0

Georgia Tech 52-14
Texas A&M 24-10
Syracuse 41-6
Charlotte 52-10
N. Carolina 21-20
Florida St. 45-14
Louisville 45-10
Boston C. 59-7
Wofford 59-14
NC State 55-10
Wake Forest 52-3
S. Carolina 38-3
Virginia 62-17 (ACC title game)
Ohio State 29-23 (Playoff)
LSU ?? (National Championship)

LSU 14-0

Georgia So. 55-3
Texas 45-38
Northwestern St. 65-14
Vanderbilt 66-38
Utah St. 42-6
Florida 42-28
Miss State 36-13
Auburn 23-20
Alabama 46-41
Ole Miss 58-37
Arkansas 50-7
Georgia 37-10 (SEC title game)
Oklahoma 63-28 (Playoff)
LSU ?? (National Championship)

tulah · Jan 9, 2020

Coaching edge is ginormous.
ill take Dabo with +6 every single time.

Knightrofins · Jan 10, 2020

I'm leaning towards Clemson plus the 6 here.

Look, LSU is awesome and having an awesome year. I just think Clemson gets them here (or hangs close).

Ohio State "might" had been the best college football team this season and Clemson beat them so Clemson is tested. Clemson has been blowing out teams every game since October. Maybe they havent looked "impressive" b/c they didnt have to look "impressive" (That UNC game was a MAJOR wake up call).

Trevor Lawrence has never lost a college game.

Dabo and Venables have been here before. They know how to prep for the CFP. Does Coach O?

Burrow won the heisman, he probably will be the first pick in the NFL draft. Will he have added pressure b/c of this? Maybe trying to be "too perfect" or trying "not to get injured"?

I heard this morning that Clemson has barely turned the ball over this season and they dont get penalized that much. So you wont see Clemson beating Clemson.

Finally, I think the pressure is on the favorite and not the defending champs. LSU may feel more pressure being the home team playing close to home.

Both of these teams were fun to watch this year and NOLA should be fun this weekend with all of these tiger fans. My buddy put something on facebook this morning that he was in the greenville airport and the whole plane was Clemson fans. Then he was at the hub in Atlanta and it was all clemson and lsu fans flying to NOLA. The game isnt for another 3 days!!!

Hoping for a good game and the worst part about it that there will be no more games til september.

Good luck to all

LSUpete · Jan 10, 2020

You guys are just rationalizing reasons to take Clemson.

The worry is not the defense. LSU has a rock solid interior d-line with quality backups. They've got Chaisson, Divinity, and Phillips at LB's. And deep we got Stingley, Fulton, Delpit, etc..
The defense when it's not been over at the M*A*S*H unit is simply lights out good. They've seen Harris from Bama run, Jeudy, Waddle, Ruggs, Smith from Bama, dudes from UF, Auburn, Texas, ... Clemson having a couple of great receivers? That's not gonna be a new experience. OTOH those guys being covered by our guys will be for them. And Lawrence at qb? Sorry, Tua was scary, he just was. They used him to the max, and he could light you up for 500+ despite your best. Lawrence is good, but no dog required for him.

The worry is not the defense.

The worry is the offense. Every game its always the same. Can LSU continue to play flawlessly? So far They have. But what happens when it goes to shit for a qtr or two. It did in the 3rd at Bama. It struggled in the 2nd against Auburn. The worry is what if the offense struggles? Its, like or not, a finesse offense. Slick routes, hit'em where they ain't. All that stuff. Its not tOSU being a road grader offense. It's worked great. But the worry, and its not just for Clemson, its been every game, will it work this time too?

Paranoia run amok. NO doubt about it. But its the worry.

Contrarian108 · Jan 10, 2020

Hey LSUPete, what’s your email? Would love to get your insight on the upcoming game. Thx.

crownreserve · Jan 10, 2020

All I have heard and seen is CLEMSON, CLEMSON and more Clemson not one person except lsupete has said LSU has a chance.. personally I like that and the line is staying around six.. LSU has played tougher opponents excluding ohio st and when the refs called a targeting call an ejected the player just take a look at the faces of the rest of the ohio st team. If the LSU players hear half of what I have heard even on ESPN all clemson believe me they will be ready. if the LSU team shows up that played bama the first half and oklahoma clemson don't stand a chance..... GO TIGERS!!!

cloverleaf · Jan 10, 2020

I believe the game is all about Defense. LSU runs a 3-4 with a huge front three. I would bet
Clemson runs outside the tackles with Etienne who is one of the hardest RBs in CFB to bring
down in open space. He set a PPF record this year by forcing missed tackles on 45% of his
carries. The former record was 33 percent. IF he has success, that will open up Lawrence to
passing.

Obviously Clemson's defense has to pressure (blitz) Burrow and hope to confuse him with
different looks. Burrow has been excellent this season at reading defenses so that's no easy
task. Watch for All-American LB Isaiah Simmons (#11) and SS K'Von Wallace (#12) to roam
all over the field.

Defensive turnovers will be gold in this game...…………….

Knightrofins · Jan 10, 2020

LSUpete said:
You guys are just rationalizing reasons to take Clemson.

The worry is not the defense. LSU has a rock solid interior d-line with quality backups. They've got Chaisson, Divinity, and Phillips at LB's. And deep we got Stingley, Fulton, Delpit, etc..
The defense when it's not been over at the M*A*S*H unit is simply lights out good. They've seen Harris from Bama run, Jeudy, Waddle, Ruggs, Smith from Bama, dudes from UF, Auburn, Texas, ... Clemson having a couple of great receivers? That's not gonna be a new experience. OTOH those guys being covered by our guys will be for them. And Lawrence at qb? Sorry, Tua was scary, he just was. They used him to the max, and he could light you up for 500+ despite your best. Lawrence is good, but no dog required for him.

The worry is not the defense.

The worry is the offense. Every game its always the same. Can LSU continue to play flawlessly? So far They have. But what happens when it goes to shit for a qtr or two. It did in the 3rd at Bama. It struggled in the 2nd against Auburn. The worry is what if the offense struggles? Its, like or not, a finesse offense. Slick routes, hit'em where they ain't. All that stuff. Its not tOSU being a road grader offense. It's worked great. But the worry, and its not just for Clemson, its been every game, will it work this time too?

Paranoia run amok. NO doubt about it. But its the worry.

Nothing wrong with agreeing to disagree as long as we're all civil about it. Just a difference of opinions

Will you be at the game monday nite? If so, enjoy and good luck!!

Clemson +5.5

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