***** G-Man's Monday Night National Champinship Game. Clemson/LSU. ********

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This is it.
Hit my 25 unit play yesterday on KC and went 3-1 on the day with Packers and over.

KC and Houston were full of scores from turnovers but as I wrote up for that game, they (KC) have a far better defense at this point on the season. They actually held Houston to 10 points offensively, which would have kept the total under the 51, if you also didnt have just as many turnover points from Houston allowing KC to score 51. KC rolls next week,


Clemson +5.5 over LSU. 25 units.
Clemson ML +180. 25 units


Many will have good reason to bet either team in this one. Bottom line is who wins and covers?
Over the years Ive stuck to several capping factors that usually produce a winner ATS. Im my methods I usually ignore the rankings of the teams involved. It never means a thing except for the public that is a casual bettor and involved in Board squares at parties who make few bets per year. Thats just my opinion.
In this game Im looking for reasons that are compelling enough to expect a winning outcome. None of what Im saying is very revealing in print, but its path Im on in deciding who Im betting on.

First.
Level of competition both team played to get here.
LSU definitely played the softer schedule in my opinion. In Fact - Oklahoma was such a poorly prepared opponent. What was exposed in that game, was how slow all the DB's and LB's were for the Sooners. It was vivid - and when you dont see teams playing against other speedy teams, youre lost, in judging how good they are.
LSU would have struggled if they played Ohio State and likely would have lost. They re here because they played Oklahoma.

Clemson played a better bunch of teams and the last game against tOSU was a hard fought win. Lots of errors on the Buckeyes produced the loss for them, but make no mistake about how good Clemson really is. They held the Buckeyes to their lowest scoring game of the season. Also, Clemson actually scored the most points that the Buckeyes also gave up on the season. Those 2 factors cannot be ignored. Those facts are massive in picking the winner for this game today.

Second.
The main factor here is that Clemson does have the best defense in this game. When tested - by what may have been the best team in the bowl games, they did everything needed to win against Ohio State. They have no weak components. If Ohio State would have won that game, Clemson would still be better than LSU would have been against the Buckeyes.

LSU quarterback Burrows is fantastic but he wasn't always this good. He left Ohio State because he wasn't going to start. QB for Clemson has won 25 straight and takes no back seat to Burrows. There was no team that LSU faced this season with a quarterback as good as Trevor lawrence , but Clemson has has a good dose of the high caliber QB Fields on Ohio State.

Burrow wil have his moment - but in the end - it will be Clemson who takes all the marbles.

My Top College Game of the year for me. -Clemson.
 

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Ok i might have throw $$ on Clemson 6 . I hardly have 2 LSU ML 3 Team parlay I already have Clemson +12.5 on teaser to Kc -3 . You convinced me . I’ll bet more on Clemson now . What about total any thoughts.
 

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Lol only a homer would say Clemson had a harder schedule than LSU
 

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G/man.........solid season buddy......appreciate all your time, effort and

thaought's through out the season.....BOL tonight........indy
 

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Just a few stats to back up my play. NOTE: Clemson holds all the advantages on defense. LSU has 31 teams better than them on defense (Ranked 32) in allowing total yards. In addition, LSU doesn't have one category in the top 10, except for turnover advantage - Of which Clemson still has the advantage as well in that category.

Take a closer look at Clemson's defensive stats. Simply amazing and thats why they beat Ohio State.

Also hiding in plain sight is the run-game factors on defense. LSU was 24th, while Clemson was 6th.

Even more impressive is the offensive factors. Clemson was 10th , while LSU was 62nd.

[FONT=&quot]
CLEM OffRankStatRankLSU Def
547.73TOT YDS32342.0
294.820PASS YDS57221.7
252.910RUSH YDS24120.3
46.54PTS SCORED2721.2
410T OVERS/T AWAYS516

[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]
CLEM DefRankStatRankLSU Off
244.71TOT YDS1554.5
138.51PASS YDS2386.8
106.29RUSH YDS62167.7
10.61PTS SCORED347.8
173T AWAYS/T OVERS185

[/FONT]
 
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I respect your capping and a lot of other cappers I see on Clemson.. but I just don't understand everytime I see in print Clemson played the tougher schedule... Last I saw Fla st, Virginia tech, Nc and others how did they finish.. Was a top 10 team on Clemson schedule.. however look at LSU schedule Auburn, Fla, Ga and Bama from what everyone is saying these teams are WORST then the ACC.... and Bama would have been in the playoffs if QB didn't get hurt and LSU beat them. Clemsom impressive wins against the ACC running up the scores their def shutting out the ACC... I might be wrong but I don't think ohio st QB is near as good as Burrow and who did ohio st beat this year? That is why there is a championship game we will see tonight.

GL one of us will win... I am Huge on LSU biggest bet of the year
 

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G/man.........solid season buddy......appreciate all your time, effort and

thaought's through out the season.....BOL tonight........indy

Appreciate the feedback Indy. Youre a class act
 

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While Clemson has the better defense, and Venables in their corner, LSU definitely had the harder schedule. The ACC had a lot of middling teams, but no one near Clemson. And LSU smoked Oklahoma, which is all they could do. With you on Clemson, but I definitely think the points could matter.
 

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I was thinking the same thing. Am I missing something also. Didn’t LSU play a harder schedule


I think its subjective to how much you drink the SEC coolaid ... their "toughest" opponents
  • Florida at home ... I felt all year Florida was over rated. They were impressive in their bowl game, but certainly not the 7th best team in the country, that's just ludicrous
  • Auburn again at home, by 3 . Auburn finish 9-4 including a loss to Minny in the Outback bowl
  • At Alabama where a total of 87 points were scored ... Didn't we used to praise SEC defenses??
  • Georgia .... if the 2019 season holds any memories it'll be just how over rated Georgia was this year

So I don't know if there is a true comparison of a "tougher" schedule. I do believe the "tough" games against SEC opponents wasn't exactly a gauntlet this year
 

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I respect your capping and a lot of other cappers I see on Clemson.. but I just don't understand everytime I see in print Clemson played the tougher schedule... Last I saw Fla st, Virginia tech, Nc and others how did they finish.. Was a top 10 team on Clemson schedule.. however look at LSU schedule Auburn, Fla, Ga and Bama from what everyone is saying these teams are WORST then the ACC.... and Bama would have been in the playoffs if QB didn't get hurt and LSU beat them. Clemsom impressive wins against the ACC running up the scores their def shutting out the ACC... I might be wrong but I don't think ohio st QB is near as good as Burrow and who did ohio st beat this year? That is why there is a championship game we will see tonight.

GL one of us will win... I am Huge on LSU biggest bet of the year

and who did ohio st beat this year? <- Really? ... like Really Really ?
 

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and who did ohio st beat this year? <- Really? ... like Really Really ?

and who did ohio st beat this year? <- Really? ... like Really Really ?

FAU - Conference Champion
Cincinnati - Lost Conference Championship
Miami (ohio) - Conference Champion
Wisconsin - 6-1 and Ranked
Penn State - 9-1 and Ranking top 8
Michigan - 9-2 and Ranked
Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship game ......

Now if we were discussing an SEC team with this schedule they would undoubtedly have the TOUGHEST SCHEDULE EVER !!!!
 
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FAU who??? CINN What?? Miami Ohio come on really!!! Wisconsin really!! Michigan harbough way over paid!! penn st best team here and minnesota beat them... Ohio st qb really guys... compare him to burrow??? Clemson best asset is Dabo!! he will have his team ready tonight thinking they are the best he is a great coach but he not playing.. LSU will sack lawerence!!! after several hits he will not know what to do...

All the above teams you touted clemson played anyone could beat!!!
 

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FAU who??? CINN What?? Miami Ohio come on really!!! Wisconsin really!! Michigan harbough way over paid!! penn st best team here and minnesota beat them... Ohio st qb really guys... compare him to burrow??? Clemson best asset is Dabo!! he will have his team ready tonight thinking they are the best he is a great coach but he not playing.. LSU will sack lawerence!!! after several hits he will not know what to do...

All the above teams you touted clemson played anyone could beat!!!


No one beat the Buckeyes EXCEPT Clemson.

So what will the schedule mean if LSU loses tonight ?

LSU got here by playing Oklahoma... Thats my point...

You think sacking Lawrence is going to stop him? You need to look at the Clamsen defense and ask yourself... how is Burrowns going to beat Clemson's defense.

For all reading.Just look at the stats I posted.
 

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I have Clemson scoring at least 35 n Clemson struggled to score looked ugly against OSU..... Havent decided anything just what bothers me w Clem
 

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What bothers me is LSU defense! Clemson will score and can LSU score enough on number 1 pass defense in nation??
 

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ohio st threw on them and if thier back didnt hurt his ankle clemson might not be here.
 
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This is a great debate and would not be if there were not two great teams playing. Enjoy the night guys.
 

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