Fading Top 25 teams favored at home Jan 14-end reg season

TimmyRules · Jan 14, 2020

Goodbye to another College Football season.

NFL almost done as well.

I have no idea how Top 25 teams do ATS at home but we have heard how many #1 teams have been beaten already this season.

So in an attempt to take up some time, I’m going to list Top 25 teams playing as favorites at home and pick a maximum of 5, going against them ATS.

I don’t have any cool computer systems, and won’t take too much time looking at stats because I won’t be risking any significant amounts. Any write up will be brief and likely a lame attempt at humor involved.

I like to explain why/how I’m making picks so anyone fading, following or ignoring has a better understanding.

Time to find a list of Top 25 because I only know Gonzaga is #1, right :think2:

indiana · Jan 14, 2020

T/Rules.........BOL with your action buddy........indy

TimmyRules · Jan 14, 2020

Going to use ESPN and list as they appear on Top 25 scoreboard

21 OSU-17x
13 Day-8x
14 Vill-9x
12 WV-12x

Plays with updated lines and rotation #’s later today :103631605

TimmyRules · Jan 14, 2020

indiana said:
T/Rules.........BOL with your action buddy........indy

Thanks Indy!

Hope you had a profitable College Football season :103631605

TimmyRules · Jan 14, 2020

601 Nebr + 17x - OSU has plenty to be pissed about after 4 poor performances. But, can we count on them scoring 75 if Nebraska can manage 57? I haven’t heard Fred lately calling in to Highly Questionable so hopefully he has his kids playing well enough to keep this within the number.

627 VCU +8x - waiting on this one as unsure about status of Toppin. VCU D should keep it close but Dayton can put up the points especially if Toppin plays.

633 DePaul + 9x - DePaul has been awful last 3 and not covered ATS last 5 yet line dropped from 10...no reason to back them but that is exactly why I will, thinking that Vegas has line shaded for home chalk.

635 TCU + 7x - two defensive minded teams battling it out and I get 7 points! Can’t remember which of our RX’rs had it out last year for Huggy but this play is for him as well :103631605

So three plays now and will wait on Toppin status.

p-tricky · Jan 14, 2020

Great idea! I like the write-ups too. Thanks for sharing. Right now, less money is on these teams (under 50%) which make them more attractive, IMO.

slide · Jan 14, 2020

I have done no survey but it seems to me that it is more difficult than usual very difficult to win a road game against a good team. I'm inclined to bet more of the home teams with reasonable lines, which will usually come against better teams--but that home court is a bitch.

indiana · Jan 14, 2020

T/Rules.....going to trail TCU and added Wisc.......sweep'em buddy.........indy

TimmyRules · Jan 14, 2020

slide said:
I have done no survey but it seems to me that it is more difficult than usual very difficult to win a road game against a good team. I'm inclined to bet more of the home teams with reasonable lines, which will usually come against better teams--but that home court is a bitch.

One thing I will do is track results of how these Top 25 teams do at home ATS. I know it’s available elsewhere but will be interesting to track.

I agree home court is a bitch and would imagine Vegas “knows” we all think that....thus my thought the lines may be too high. As we know, the Dogs don’t have to win, just cover. :103631605

Indy, I saw you were on Wisc from another thread and added them as well.

TimmyRules · Jan 14, 2020

Watching Inside College Basketball and ticker has Toppin starting.

I don’t think VCU can score enough to stay within 9 so passing on this Dog.

Lets see how night one plays out on this experiment :103631605

TimmyRules · Jan 14, 2020

Thank you OSU for only scoring 4 points in final 4 minutes @)

TimmyRules · Jan 15, 2020

Quick Recap - Jan 14 games

Thank you OSU for only scoring 4 points in final 4 minutes @)

Toppin was hobbled but still scored 24 and Day shot 50% compared to 42 by VCU. Glad I stayed away.

With 4:13 left up 12 Vill was outscored 18-6 to go into OT where DePaul stayed within the number.

No part of TCU showed up, giving up 81 on 58% shooting by WV and they only managed 49 on 32% shooting.

TimmyRules · Jan 15, 2020

Yesterday’s
Top 25 at home ATS 2-2
My fading plays 2-1

Jan 14-forward
Top 25 at home ATS 2-2
My fading plays 2-1

TimmyRules · Jan 15, 2020

Per ESPN Top 25 scoreboard

5 Butler-5
9 FSU-6x
2 Bay-10x

Back later with updated lines, rotation #’s and Plays

Ilovetobet · Jan 15, 2020

indiana · Jan 15, 2020

T/Rules.........BOL with tonight's action buddy..........indy

TimmyRules · Jan 15, 2020

781 S Hall + 4x - The better O by almost 10 pts in conf will get the full attention of the defensive minded Bulldogs. This line is too short for me to fade Butler so I will pass.

791 Virg + 6x - Virginia coming into this game off two awful shooting performances leading to both loses. FSU beat them last year in ACC tourney so they aren’t short of confidence in beating these guys at home....BUT by 7??? I will take the points.

823 Iowa St + 9 - Have lost 3 of 4 including at home to FL A&M as 25 pt Favs. No chance against the powerful Bears who are #2. Those guys are strutting around campus and I wouldn’t be surprised if looking ahead to OU, OSU, and Florida. Was going to pass but since the leading scorer of ISU has the last name very close to a company I worked for years ago let’s grab the points!

BOL and time to see who other RX cappers are playing :103631605

Baronman · Jan 15, 2020

Timmy Rules said:
601 Nebr + 17x - OSU has plenty to be pissed about after 4 poor performances. But, can we count on them scoring 75 if Nebraska can manage 57? I haven’t heard Fred lately calling in to Highly Questionable so hopefully he has his kids playing well enough to keep this within the number.

627 VCU +8x - waiting on this one as unsure about status of Toppin. VCU D should keep it close but Dayton can put up the points especially if Toppin plays.

633 DePaul + 9x - DePaul has been awful last 3 and not covered ATS last 5 yet line dropped from 10...no reason to back them but that is exactly why I will, thinking that Vegas has line shaded for home chalk.

635 TCU + 7x - two defensive minded teams battling it out and I get 7 points! Can’t remember which of our RX’rs had it out last year for Huggy but this play is for him as well

So three plays now and will wait on Toppin status.

TIMMY CONGRATS ON LSU I THINK YOU HAVE GAMBLING PROBLEM YOU BET A LOt. I KNOW YOUR RETIRED THOUGH HOME PAID FOR GOOD LUCK I DONT BET COLLEGE BASKETBALL DONT HAVE CLUE DOING NAMN MUSIC SHOW WED - SATURDAY BIG $$$$. PETER FRAMPTON LAST YEAR , ALICIE COOPER JOHHNY DEP , SLASH GUNS IN ROSES, SAMMY HAGGAR , BB KING , A LOt GREAT ACTS OVER THE YEARS

indiana · Jan 15, 2020

T/Rules.....sweep your card buddy.....going with ALa.,Tenn. and G/town...…

have a great day buddy...…..indy

TimmyRules · Jan 15, 2020

indiana said:
T/Rules.....sweep your card buddy.....going with ALa.,Tenn. and G/town...…

have a great day buddy...…..indy

That Bama line is interesting considering their record compared to Auburn. I played that earlier when I saw a couple here on it. Smelly line so might as well be like a dog and roll in it!!

Fading Top 25 teams favored at home Jan 14-end reg season

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