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MR.HARRYtheHAT

MR.HARRYtheHAT

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Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
~Harold Windham NFL Analyst~ Contributor For [ DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders]
The Chiefs proved to be nearly unstoppable in their win over Houston using a mix of short and medium length passes and a defense that forced turnovers.kansas City scored 28 of its points in the second quarter after finishing the regular season with a franchise-record 177 in that period. With that second-quarter onslaught, the Chiefs became the first team in NFL history - regular season or playoffs - to be either tied or lead at halftime after trailing by at least 24 points in the first half. Tennessee seems to be too one-dimensional at this point with its running game and that could hurt if the Titans fall behind early. The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 52 behind two-thirds of bets taking the over. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003.
The forecast calls for frigid temperatures (20 degrees) but no precipitation and only 3-4 MPH winds. When the temperature is less than 30 degrees the over is 116-81 (58.9%), including 24-14 (63.2%) in the postseason. Outdoor playoff unders are 4-2 this postseason and 77-58 (57%) since 2003. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56.7%). Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Titans 10-8 and Chiefs 9-8. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10, winning straight up as 5-point home dogs.
Derrick Henry carried the ball 96 times in his past three games, a span of four weeks. Although they improved down the stretch, the Chiefs allowed 126.2 rush yards per game and yielded 104 yards on 17 carries to Josh Jacobs in their last matchup against an elite lead back like Henry. In other words, I’m not expecting Kansas City to slow Henry down, but at what point does this workload begin to take its toll on the running back? Perhaps we’re just not wired these days to watch a guy tote the rock 30-plus times per game and he’s actually going to be fine. For those riding Titans +7 you’d better hope that’s the case because this is one of those games where Tennessee must win time of possession, bleed the clock and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hand. Lay the points and take the home chalk. Final Score Prediction, Kansas City Chiefs win and cover the 7 points
Power Ratings
Dunkel Index power, Chiefs home Rating 97.5% & Titans Road Rating 90.0% = Chiefs +7 1/2
Danny Sheridan power rating Chiefs Home Rating 96.0 & Titans Road Rating 90.5% =Chiefs +5 1/2
B&Rs Expert Consensus Power Rating Chiefs Home Rating 97.0 & Titans Road Rating 90.0% =Chiefs +7
DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating Chiefs Home Rating 98.5 & Titans Road Rating 90.0% =Chiefs +8 1/2
***My Bets >
***-6 1/2 Chiefs [ 5X $100 Units] Buying The Hook -$130]
***Money Line -$330 to win $100[ 10X $100 Units]
***Half Time Bet -4 Chiefs
Green Bay Packers (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)
~Steve Janus NFL Analyst Contributor For [ DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders]
Green Bay’s regular-season loss against San Francisco showed the disparity between the two teams. The 49ers pass rush is going to dominate Rodgers once again (five sacks last time) and the Packers will have no answer for Bosa. San Francisco has stepped it up in the biggest games this season, going 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. This game will be all about the two defensive units going at it and we shall see what adjustments the Packers will make from their blowout loss 56 days ago. Kittle had one of his best games of the season against Green Bay. He is tough to contain, but the Packers will do their best to stop him. Green Bay will need to get their offense in a good tempo early because last time, it was nonexistent. Rodgers has the experience and he put up a good effort against the Seahawks. The Packers have the better quarterback, but the 49ers have the much better team and home field advantage. Green Bay has had too many close calls this season for me to trust them in this spot of winning. My option a close game.
Power Ratings
Dunkel Index power, San Francisco 49ers home Rating, 96.5% & Green Bay Packers Road Rating 91.5% = San Francisco 49ers +5
B&Rs Expert Consensus Power Rating, San Francisco 49ers home Rating 97.5% & Green Bay Packers Road Rating 93.5% = San Francisco 49ers +4
Danny Sheridan Power Rating Power Rating, San Francisco 49ers home Rating 96.0% & Green Bay Packers Road Rating 94.0% = San Francisco 49ers +2
DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating, San Francisco 49ers home Rating, 97.0% & Green Bay Packers Road Rating 94.0% = San Francisco 49ers +3
***My Bets >
***7 Point 2 Team Teaser> San Francisco 49ers - 1/2 & Over 39 points [ 3X $100 Units]
***7 Point 2 Team Teaser> San Francisco 49ers - 1/2 & Kansas City Chiefs - Even [ 2X $100 Units]

cheersgifLets Just Win guys !!!!!!!!
**** Handicapping information taken from Internet Sports Media. Bleacher Report, Inc.,USA Today Sports Media Group, Pro Football Weekly's & NFL Weather.com, Football Stats and History, and other sources connected with NFL Sports. Jerry Nyles NFL Capper, Kyle Hunter NFL Capper Sports Analyst Rob Vinciletti, HarryTheHat NFL Capper, Harold Windham NFL Analyst, Kyle Hunter NFL Capper, Trev Rogers NFL Capper, Steve Janus NFL Analyst, Sal Limonti NFL Capper, Harv Rubenstein NFL Capper * *****Stats taken from Power Ratings Danny Sheridan power rating, Dunkel Index power,B&Rs Expert Consensus rating, with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating ~[Cleveland OH] With Bobby Lancer Exclusive ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads With Trends & Statistics and Indicators. Intelligent Analysis of the NFL Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~
 
Loves2kickass

Loves2kickass

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Buying a hook from 7 to 6 1/2 costs $200 on a $1,000 wager which is expensive. Hard to back a play when the recommendation is to by a half. Tells me your not to confident in the selection and tells me you think there's a chance the team your betting might not win unless you buy the hook based on the percentages and that team may just win by 7 which is the current spread. Risk greater than the reward. In that case much better to play Tennessee at the current line of +7 1/2. Good luck, just my observation.
 
MR.HARRYtheHAT

MR.HARRYtheHAT

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San Francisco is the better team on both sides of the ball and in coaching according to these stats!!!!

This game will come down to two key factors: Can the 49ers get pressure on Rodgers, and can the Packers slow down San Francisco's rushing attack? The 49ers finished fifth in the NFL with 48 sacks this season - and they were well distributed. Arik Armstead had 10, Nick Bosa had nine, DeForest Buckner posted 7.5 and Dee Ford had 6.5 in only 11 games. The Niners tied for fifth in the NFL in the regular season with 48 sacks. The Packers tied for 15th with 41 sacks. Both teams tied for 12th with 36 sacks given up. Since their week 12 contest, Green Bay's offense has regressed some and its defense has tightened up just a bit. While San Francisco's defense had regressed toward the end of the regular season, Dee Ford's and Kwon Alexander's returns give it a boost and there is little question that San Francisco is the better team on both sides of the ball and in coaching.
Through the regular season, San Francisco ranked 5th in total DVOA at 27.9 percent, 8th in weighted offensive DVOA at 4.4 percent and 5th in weighted defensive DVOA at -15.3 percent.
The 49ers' offense was 4th with 381.1 yards per game, 2nd with 29.9 points per game, 13th with 237.0 passing yards per game, 2nd with 144.1 rushing yards per game, 5th with 6.0 offensive yards per play and 29th with 28.91 seconds per play.
San Francisco's defense was 2nd in allowing 281.1 yards per game, 8th by conceding 19.4 points per game, 1st in giving up 169.2 passing yards per game, 17th in yielding 112.6 rushing yards per game and 1st with 4.7 defensive yards per play.
The Niners' offensive line was ranked 8th in run blocking and 15th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line was 13th in adjusted line yards and 2nd in adjusted sack rate. The Packers' offense ranked 18th with 345.5 yards per game, 15th with 23.5 points per game, 17th with 233.3 passing yards per game, 15th with 112.2 rushing yards per game, 17th with 5.4 offensive yards per play and 28th with 28.86 seconds per play (pace).
Green Bay's defense was 18th in giving up 352.6 yards per game, 9th in yielding 19.6 points per game, 14th with 232.6 passing yards conceded per game, 23rd in allowing 120.1 rushing yards per game and 22nd with 5.7 defensive yards per play.
San Francisco is the better team on both sides of the ball and in coaching according to these stats!!!!
*****Stats & Analysis on this matchup are from ~Bobby Lancer Exclusive Ratings with the DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating~
 
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MLB

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The only way GB wins is turnovers. If they can get some turnovers in SF territory, specifically the redzone, they will win with the short field.
 
MR.HARRYtheHAT

MR.HARRYtheHAT

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MLB said:
The only way GB wins is turnovers. If they can get some turnovers in SF territory, specifically the redzone, they will win with the short field.
Click to expand...
Thank You For Your Reply MLB!!!! I am always open For Constructive comments about my picks & bets. ~Best Of Luck To You MLB On Your Bets For The Conference Games~
 
MR.HARRYtheHAT

MR.HARRYtheHAT

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~Football Stats and History~Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~


 
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indiana

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H/hat...….solid write up buddy...…...appreciate the thoughts....
BOL with your action and enjoy the games...…….indy
 
Hamilbet

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MLB said:
The only way GB wins is turnovers. If they can get some turnovers in SF territory, specifically the redzone, they will win with the short field.
Click to expand...
Normally, who ever wins the turnover battle wins the game, so I dont think that changes anything for this game. I really think you are under estimating the QB matchup here.
 
MikeB

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MLB said:
The only way GB wins is turnovers. If they can get some turnovers in SF territory, specifically the redzone, they will win with the short field.
Click to expand...

Hot take....




Thanks for the write up Harry. Always an interesting read
 

MackDonald

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Thanks for your input Harry; At my age all my action (size) is in the recreation category but I still like to win,
I always look at your input because I know you've been around the block more than a few times....GL with your action......
 
MR.HARRYtheHAT

MR.HARRYtheHAT

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Cold Weather at Arrowhead Stadium Will Not Even Effect The Kid !!!

Arrowhead Stadium, 1 Arrowhead Drive, Kansas City, MO
Sunday 12:00 18 F/C Winds 11mph
Weather will have more effect on the running game in option, not the passing game. I really think the weather will affect Tenn lot more than KC as team comparison. The weather in my option will have little or no effect on the kid [ who you calling a kid ? ] !!! LOL !! LOL!!
 
MR.HARRYtheHAT

MR.HARRYtheHAT

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~Thank You All~ For Your Support Over The Regular Season Through the Playoffs

***My Bets >W/L
***-6 1/2 Chiefs [ 5X $100 Units] Buying The Hook -$130] Win
***Money Line -$330 to win $100[ 10X $100 Units] Win
***Half Time Bet -4 Chiefs [ 21-17 ] 1/2 time Chiefs] Push
***7 Point 2 Team Teaser> San Francisco 49ers - 1/2 & Over 39 points [ 3X $100 Units] Win
***7 Point 2 Team Teaser> San Francisco 49ers - 1/2 & Kansas City Chiefs - Even [ 2X $100 Units] Win
My W/L Record From Week#1 to the Conference Games 90-41-9> Includes all Bets [ $100 Units]> Point Spreads Including Presses[1-5X Units] & Half Time Bets [1-3X Units] & Teasers [2-3X Units] & Money Lines including Presses [3-15 X Units] & Over/ Under [2-3 X Units] Parlays Including 2 team reverses [1-2X Units] *****Starting Bankroll 5K- Closing bankroll after the regular Season Through the Playoffs 27K = Win 22K***** This is one best years in many that I went over little 4X my bankroll !!!.. ~Quitting while you're head is not really Quitting~ !!!!
Thankyou)(&~Thank You To My Friends On Rx, Members, Guests ~ For Your Support Over The Regular Season Through the Playoffs~
 
3pointdog

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Well done sir....
 

bengals34

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Sorry you weren't 90-41. When you post your bets that is what the spread. Go back an check your record. When you buy points and lose, you have to count that big vig in your losses.
 
MR.HARRYtheHAT

MR.HARRYtheHAT

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I base my record by my bank-roll.[ Bankroll system], I use is my money management

bengals34 said:
Sorry you weren't 90-41. When you post your bets that is what the spread. Go back an check your record. When you buy points and lose, you have to count that big vig in your losses.
Click to expand...
Yes!!! however I have won higher percentage wins over loses buying points with the juice. My winning bets on buys overcome my loses on the juice of losing bets. Like I said before in some of my posts> My betting system really alters a win/loss records for the year. I try to keep accurate W/L record but it alters because I do not bet the same amount on every game. I really base my record by my bank-roll. Bankroll system I use is my money management. My Strategy is I do not bet same amount on each game. I press bets sometimes and play money line bets. Why I think win-loss record is overrated because in my option most gamblers bet sports do not bet the same on every game. If its contest or pools that's justified with a rating. My goal is at end of season to have 3x my bankroll,or hoping more? *** My method of Bob Martins Money Strategy. As with any gambling, or investing, there is always risk whether it’s systemic or otherwise. My friend you can not win them all on your bets for season with strategy, but you will overcome your losses with wins on presses.
 
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