Brooklynworm's picks and prediction tennessee vs. Kansas city.

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TENNESSEE (53.0) VS KANSAS CITY (-7).
Before we get started, let’s talk about the Chiefs comeback last week against the Texans. KC, could have easily rolled over, and conceded the victory. Instead, they fought back, and played like their hair was on fire. That shown me that the Chiefs are a hungry bunch, like a pack of wolves frothing from their mouth, and stalking their prey. Here is why the Chief’s will win this game handily. The Chiefs have five elite players on offense that are lethal weapons at Mahomes disposal at any time. The Chiefs are a scoring machine, and you witnessed this against Houston when they rallied from behind, and posted 51 points. Opposed to Tennessee, that has a one dimensional offense that runs their offense through running back Henry. With all of Henry’s success on the ground, the yards don’t measure up to the points Tennessee scores. So for argument sake, let’s say Henry runs for 150 yards, and the Titans score two touchdowns, and kick two field goals. Add that up, that’s 20 total points. On the other side of the football, the Chiefs have the potential each game to score 4 – 5 touchdowns, and kick two field goals. That’s 31 to 38 points. QB’s Tannehill is no match up for Mahomes, and keep in mind, this is a KC defense much improved closing out the regular season. KC isn’t a great defense, however, they put their offense in position to outscore their opponents. KC, injury wise, isn’t as banged up as they were during their first meeting. The KC offensive line is providing pass protection for Mahomes. Another tangible to think about. Stats show, that the Titans cannot cover Tight Ends, with linebackers. So expect Travis Kelce to have a big game. As for Tennessee, let me first congratulate you with your recent play, to make it this far into the playoffs. However, the Cinderella story stops here. KC defense will pay eight in the box, to slow Henry. Once the titans are forced to throw, the Tannehill mistakes will follow. The only way KC doesn’t win this game is the “Andy Reid Curse”. Predicted score: KANSAS CITY 31 TENNESSEE 23. TAKE KANSAS CITY (-7), OVER (53.0).
 

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Tennessee averaged over 30 pts a game after Tannehill took over. Mariota had Henry behind him and only averaged 16 points a game with 43 of those in the first week. Tannehill can throw the ball and is maturing into a decent QB that can beat teams when Henry is contained. Henry ran for 188 yds when these teams met the first time. AJ Brown is a guy that can be a difference maker in this game. I'm not saying Tennessee will win but this game shouldn't be a blowout unless turnovers cost either team. I see a 37-31 game either way.
 
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Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
~Harold Windham NFL Analyst~ Contributor For [ DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders]


The Chiefs proved to be nearly unstoppable in their win over Houston using a mix of short and medium length passes and a defense that forced turnovers.kansas City scored 28 of its points in the second quarter after finishing the regular season with a franchise-record 177 in that period. With that second-quarter onslaught, the Chiefs became the first team in NFL history - regular season or playoffs - to be either tied or lead at halftime after trailing by at least 24 points in the first half. Tennessee seems to be too one-dimensional at this point with its running game and that could hurt if the Titans fall behind early. The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 52 behind two-thirds of bets taking the over. Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003.
The forecast calls for frigid temperatures (20 degrees) but no precipitation and only 3-4 MPH winds. When the temperature is less than 30 degrees the over is 116-81 (58.9%), including 24-14 (63.2%) in the postseason. Outdoor playoff unders are 4-2 this postseason and 77-58 (57%) since 2003. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56.7%). Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Titans 10-8 and Chiefs 9-8. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10, winning straight up as 5-point home dogs.
Derrick Henry carried the ball 96 times in his past three games, a span of four weeks. Although they improved down the stretch, the Chiefs allowed 126.2 rush yards per game and yielded 104 yards on 17 carries to Josh Jacobs in their last matchup against an elite lead back like Henry. In other words, I’m not expecting Kansas City to slow Henry down, but at what point does this workload begin to take its toll on the running back? Perhaps we’re just not wired these days to watch a guy tote the rock 30-plus times per game and he’s actually going to be fine. For those riding Titans +7 you’d better hope that’s the case because this is one of those games where Tennessee must win time of possession, bleed the clock and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hand. Lay the points and take the home chalk. Final Score Prediction, Kansas City Chiefs win and cover 8+ points[ My Option**
Power Ratings
Dunkel Index power, Chiefs home Rating 97.5% & Titans Road Rating 90.0% = Chiefs +7 1/2
Danny Sheridan power rating Chiefs Home Rating 96.0 & Titans Road Rating 90.5% =Chiefs +5 1/2
B&Rs Expert Consensus Power Rating Chiefs Home Rating 97.0 & Titans Road Rating 90.0% =Chiefs +7
DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating Chiefs Home Rating 98.5 & Titans Road Rating 90.0% =Chiefs +8 1/2

***My Bets >
***-6 1/2 Chiefs [ 5X $100 Units] Buying The Hook -$130]
***Money Line -$330 to win $100[ 10X $100 Units]
***Half Time Bet -4 Chiefs
Best Of Luck My Very Good Friend Brooklynworm On The Conference Games :toast:
 

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bummer for me to read two posters I respect on KC as I have Tenn +7.5
 

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Well Said Brooklynworm !!! Stand by your convictions !!! w-thumbs!^

Thanks Guys best of luck today. One of us will be a winner. I like both dogs today. I could see both dogs staying close as I am sure the nfl would love for the games to be competitive to the end.
 

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