Tuesday Service Play Thread 01/21/2020

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Let's go Brandon!
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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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TONY FINNBASKETBALL PLAYS

  • BIG TICKET: ESPN GAME of the MONTH
    Game: (603) Kansas State at (604) Kansas
    Date/Time: Jan 21 2020 7:00 PM EST
    Betting Line Provider: Westgate
    Play Rating: 5%
    Play: Kansas -15.0 (-110)

    View Analysis

    *Bonus offers will be added no later than 12 noon EST
    PLAY: Kansas Jayhawks -15 (good to -19)
    5% confidence rating (603) Kansas State at (604) Kansas
    There are as many as 10 different spots in the College Basketball season in which I make adjustments to the power rankings of the 353 Division I schools/teams. And note that I have different criteria for the Power 6 and Mid-Majors that I use for my official and documented releases. Recently I did my fourth power ranking/rating update and there was a shakeup to the Top 100. That shakeup was primarily the discrepancy from the Top 20 teams that fill those ranked slots to the Bottom-20 of my Top-100. It’s important for me to note that the team's within the Top-100 remained 90 percent intact with some moving up and some moving down, be because of that team's remaining schedule, past performance and/or injury, or all of the aforementioned. It is also at this time of the year when I make three power ratings in total. There is a cream soda list which essentially, in terms simple enough I don't have to write a novel outlining the convoluted formula that essentially is C in the A+B Oesterie-Masser conjecture numbers theory. Back to the point of the trio of team ratings. I also assign a number to teams when playing teams within their conference and one outside of the conference during the typical conference schedule (January through conference tournaments). The two mentioned in this paragraph have been more time consuming to assemble and at times propagate to the group I work with on these, what some would call abstracts because a number of the conferences I cover now begin competing inside of their conference as early as November. My Intel source that covers the Big 12, in particular, the schools in the northern portion of the conference has issued me a weekly breakdown of those five and it is not an exaggeration to state he has been spot-on with the criteria I ask for pertaining to a number of particulars. I will have a team breakdown added to this game analysis in the next few hours. But for now, I believed it important to get the game, the teams, a couple of notes on what each club faces and offer you, the WagerTalk faithful, the opportunity to get the best number, which figures to be early Tuesday morning. The current number of 15 isn't likely to get any better. Not in Vegas, with your local or at a large number of offshore shops. This Big 12 play that includes the public Kansas Jayhawks in combination with laying what I typically call wood (a big number, or greater than 10) or 15 points, is in my orbit a double-negative. I am recommending that you back a public team vs. a non-public squad in combination with a handicap that requires we start the game two touchdowns-plus behind the eight-ball. However, this double negative is a true-blue dub-neg; a positive statement in which two negative elements are used to produce a positive force. The why in the rarity of this play is three-fold. First, as Finn client, you will be found fading public elements five times more than backing them. Second, it doesn't take a large number of variables to make a public team, a public target, by a number of forces, that would never be accused of the things they can be accused of in this situation. Bill Self would never be ridiculed for putting a combination of the second and third rotation in the game with five minutes left in the second stanza affording those that supported the dog (Kansas State) in this contest a backdoor cover. A poorly called game by an official that leans to the visiting team that is not just an underdog but a large one, e.g. the Kansas State Wildcats. When a team, in league play, is receiving 15-points or more there is a reason. In this situation it isn't just because the Hawks are at the Phog and are the public team... it is because this Kansas State team is not equipped to defeat KU in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. My adjusted numbers for this contest, which is my chart with power ratings inside of conference play has the Jayhawks 23 points better, or my number in this game should be Kansas -23. The root power ratings I have for this game has the Jayhawks as 26 point favorites. When my number is off the oddsmakers number, or game day handicap as far as this one is, I do two things. First I investigate seeking something I missed. This could be an injury or a player returning from injury. This could be a travel switch or delay. It can be a situation with the coaching staff.. etc. There is not a virus or deflecting factor in this game that make this anything but a big play. I will complete this game analysis with a matchup break down in the next few hours. You can either check back or read my work in the email that will accompany the update.
    KANSAS JAYHAWKS -15
 

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Robin Hood Club has been closed in its current format.

....“However, session #20 of the RHC lost 19.2 units and reduced the overall lifetime performance on Robin Hood Selections from +23.4 units to +4.2 units lifetime. Session #20 was a failure and illustrated the many issues of providing a guarantee… and working with people....”

Hopefully it returns to former winning ways sometime soon.
 

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SHARP TOTALS CLUB (8-2 on 3* Plays)

3*Eastern Michigan/Bowling Green Over 133
2*Nebraska/Wisconsin Under 131
 

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Bezobets..

NCAA Basketball: Duke -18.5 @ 1.893/-112 (3 Units)

NCAA Basketball: Illinois +6 @ 1.909/-110 (3 Units)

NCAA Basketball: TCU +1.5 1st Half @ 1.952/-105 (3 Units)

NCAA Basketball: Wisconsin -15.5 @ 1.893/-112 (2 Units)
 

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Bezobets

[FONT=&quot]NCAA Basketball: Duke -18.5 @ 1.893/-112 (3 Units)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]NCAA Basketball: Illinois +6 @ 1.909/-110 (3 Units)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]NCAA Basketball: TCU +1.5 1st Half @ 1.952/-105 (3 Units)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]NCAA Basketball: Wisconsin -15.5 @ 1.893/-112 (2 Units)[/FONT]
 
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Mississippi Kid
4U ATP/WTA Tennis ML Parlay
#893 Tsitsipas -500
#918 Agut -900
#2665 Osaka -500
#2601 Barty -700
#2314 Sabalenka -425
425/520
 

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Robinhood Club Followers are absolutely Smoked! Keeep following and get more crushed! Don’t ask for this stupid tout play, or what the fuck ever you call it!
 

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Robin Hood Club has been closed in its current format.

....“However, session #20 of the RHC lost 19.2 units and reduced the overall lifetime performance on Robin Hood Selections from +23.4 units to +4.2 units lifetime. Session #20 was a failure and illustrated the many issues of providing a guarantee… and working with people....”

Hopefully it returns to former winning ways sometime soon.

He will come up with another mystery sharp that is knocking them dead. Then that will pass, then another, then another....etc.......
 

Let's go Brandon!
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Marco

4% TCU +3
 
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Robinhood Club Followers are absolutely Smoked! Keeep following and get more crushed! Don’t ask for this stupid tout play, or what the fuck ever you call it!
Why are you so angry? I actually did pretty well picking the bigger spots and not laying a single parlay. But for the guys that need action 24/7 ya looked like that hurt
 

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Seabass: 300 Penguins, 300 Maryland, 300 NewMexico, 300 Utah St, 400 Duke, 400 LSU, 600 Wyoming, 1000 * Kentucky game under, 1000 * Clippers
 

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Bezobets..

NCAA Basketball: Duke -18.5 @ 1.893/-112 (3 Units)

NCAA Basketball: Illinois +6 @ 1.909/-110 (3 Units)

NCAA Basketball: TCU +1.5 1st Half @ 1.952/-105 (3 Units)

NCAA Basketball: Wisconsin -15.5 @ 1.893/-112 (2 Units)


fading bezo until the cows come home
 

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