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Thread: CFB Off-Season News

  1. #176  
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    Ohio State - Running back Trey Serman, who is leaving Oklahoma as a grad transfer, has
    committed to the Buckeyes. During his time with the Sooners, Serman rushed for 2,076
    yards and scored 22 touchdowns with a 6.1 yards per carry average. He will be eligible
    this season which will be a big get for Ohio State considering their leading returning RB
    injured his Achilles tendon this month, leaving his status uncertain for the fall. Ohio State
    is loaded this year but might be considered a little shallow at the running back position.
    Serman should help the depth chart or may turn out to be the starter. Need a player, go
    to the transfer portal.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  2. #177  
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    Ohio State - The Buckeyes were one of the most balanced teams in college football last
    year, and despite some turnover, it's reasonable to think that won't change much in 2020.
    The defense will have to find a way to replace All-American defensive end Chase Young
    and cornerback Jeff Okudah, both projected to be top NFL draft choices, but they still have
    a Heisman finalist in quarterback Justin Fields (see post 152). Fields could really show off
    his skillset without having to share the workload with running back JK Dobbins, who's for-
    going his senior season and entering the draft. Maybe Penn State gives the Buckeyes a
    run for their money, but if not, Ohio State will ploy through their conference schedule and
    win a 4th straight Big Ten Championship. Most 'experts' consider Ohio State and Clemson
    the top-two college football teams entering the 2020 season. I can't disagree with them.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  3. #178  
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    Against the Spread Trends

    Away Teams...……………..434-441-13...…..49.6%
    Home Teams...…………….441-434-13...…..50.4%
    Favorites...…………………..448-427-13...…..51.2%
    Dogs...………………………...427-448-13...…..48.8%
    Away Favs...………………..159-152-7...……..51.1%
    Away Dogs...………………..275-289-6...…...48.7%
    Home Favs...………………..289-275-6...…….51.2%
    Home Dogs...……………….152-159-7...…….48.9%

    *For what it's worth.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  4. #179  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cloverleaf View Post
    Against the Spread Trends

    Away Teams...……………..434-441-13...…..49.6%
    Home Teams...…………….441-434-13...…..50.4%
    Favorites...…………………..448-427-13...…..51.2%
    Dogs...………………………...427-448-13...…..48.8%
    Away Favs...………………..159-152-7...……..51.1%
    Away Dogs...………………..275-289-6...…...48.7%
    Home Favs...………………..289-275-6...…….51.2%
    Home Dogs...……………….152-159-7...…….48.9%

    *For what it's worth.

    There is a newsletter that will show records of home dogs and away favs of certain point spreads. Something like "away favorites with spreads from 4-9 pts are 16-3" or something like that. Its a tool i like to use if i like a game to increase my bet or if i'm on the fence of a game that would put me over to play it. I want to say its gold sheet xtra
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  5. #180  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cloverleaf View Post
    South Carolina - The Gamecocks struggles on offense last season were well documented.
    The offense was ranked 96th in total offense and 104th in scoring offense under the direction
    of coordinator Bryan McClendon. South Carolina was outscored 222-169 in Southeastern
    Conference games. A change was clearly needed, and Muschamp didn't hesitate to make
    that change this offseason, calling on Mike Bobo, a former college teammate and Colorado
    State head coach, to lead his offense in 2020. Prior to becoming head coach at CSU, Bobo
    built quite the reputation as a top flight offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at his
    alma mater Georgia (played QB). Bobo has expressed a desire to have a balanced attack
    in his return to the SEC, with an emphases on the power run game and play-action passing.
    Getting rid of McClendon and hiring Bobo was a good move by Muschamp and might just
    help save his job. Muschamp enters his fifth season in Columbia with a 27-25 record includ-
    ing 4-8 last year. We shall see...………………..
    Muschamp is one of the biggest con men in all of college football. How he landed this job, just one full year after running UF into the ground is mind blowing. How he didn't get fired after last season...is mind blowing. The ridiculous contract he has saved his ass, but if he doesn't win 8 games this year and they hang onto him at SC, that school should just shut down the football program! Muschamp has made more than $30 million between UF and SC. It's unbelievable.
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  6. #181  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    Muschamp is one of the biggest con men in all of college football. How he landed this job, just one full year after running UF into the ground is mind blowing. How he didn't get fired after last season...is mind blowing. The ridiculous contract he has saved his ass, but if he doesn't win 8 games this year and they hang onto him at SC, that school should just shut down the football program! Muschamp has made more than $30 million between UF and SC. It's unbelievable.
    The rumbling among fans really picked up during the second half of last year's 4-8 season. Going 0-4 against rival
    Clemson (outscored 55-184) hasn't helped. The problem is Muschamp is supported by the President and Athletic
    Director and he has a $13.5 million buyout if fired after this season. Florida paid Muschamp $6.3 million to leave
    in 2014...not sure SC will shell out over $13 million if he has another bad season.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  7. #182  
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    Open Dates (Bye week)

    I have had some good success betting teams AFTER an open date, especially large home favorites
    of 21 plus points. I stay away from small home favorites of 7 or less. Listed below are the best ATS
    teams after a Bye week and the worst teams. For what it's worth...…………...

    Charlotte...……..5-2 ATS......…….71.4%
    Oregon...………..40-19-1...………..67.8%
    N. Car. St...…...35-17-2...………..67.3%
    Oregon St...…..35-20-1...………...63.6%
    New Mexico. ....27-16...…………...62.8%
    Utah...…………….35-21-3...………...62.5%
    Air Force...……..31-19...…………...62.0%
    Alabama...……...33-21-2...………..61.1%
    TCU...……………..38-25...…………...60.3%
    Troy...……………..24-16-1...…………60.9%
    Rutgers...………..36-24...…………...60.0%
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    Coastal Car...….3-6...………………...33.3%
    UMass...………...5-10...………………..33.3%
    Buffalo...………..10-19-1...…………..34.5%
    Tx A&M...……….22-41...……………...34.9%
    East Car...……...20-37-1...…………..35.1%
    Army...…………..21-28-1...…………..35.6%
    Liberty...………..5-9......……………...35.7%
    UTEP...…………...16-28-1...…………..36.4%
    Hawaii...………...18-31...……………...38.1%
    Ga Southern.....8-13...………………..38.1%
    Maryland...……..19-30-1...…………..38.8%
    Michigan...……...22-33-2...…………..40.0%

    *Undefeated Home Favorites of -8 or more are 35-16-2 (68.6%). Do some homework
    and playing open date situations can be profitable.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  8. #183  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cloverleaf View Post
    Open Dates (Bye week)

    I have had some good success betting teams AFTER an open date, especially large home favorites
    of 21 plus points. I stay away from small home favorites of 7 or less. Listed below are the best ATS
    teams after a Bye week and the worst teams. For what it's worth...…………...

    Charlotte...……..5-2 ATS......…….71.4%
    Oregon...………..40-19-1...………..67.8%
    N. Car. St...…...35-17-2...………..67.3%
    Oregon St...…..35-20-1...………...63.6%
    New Mexico. ....27-16...…………...62.8%
    Utah...…………….35-21-3...………...62.5%
    Air Force...……..31-19...…………...62.0%
    Alabama...……...33-21-2...………..61.1%
    TCU...……………..38-25...…………...60.3%
    Troy...……………..24-16-1...…………60.9%
    Rutgers...………..36-24...…………...60.0%
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    Coastal Car...….3-6...………………...33.3%
    UMass...………...5-10...………………..33.3%
    Buffalo...………..10-19-1...…………..34.5%
    Tx A&M...……….22-41...……………...34.9%
    East Car...……...20-37-1...…………..35.1%
    Army...…………..21-28-1...…………..35.6%
    Liberty...………..5-9......……………...35.7%
    UTEP...…………...16-28-1...…………..36.4%
    Hawaii...………...18-31...……………...38.1%
    Ga Southern.....8-13...………………..38.1%
    Maryland...……..19-30-1...…………..38.8%
    Michigan...……...22-33-2...…………..40.0%

    *Undefeated Home Favorites of -8 or more are 35-16-2 (68.6%). Do some homework
    and playing open date situations can be profitable.
    How many seasons is that over? That 35-16-2 record? Interesting stat
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  9. #184  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knightrofins View Post
    How many seasons is that over? That 35-16-2 record? Interesting stat
    I would have to check but if I remember correctly, it goes back to 2007. I enjoy researching CFB and have folders
    all over my desk on projects I working on. Finding a few good ones can be profitable.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  10. #185  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cloverleaf View Post
    I would have to check but if I remember correctly, it goes back to 2007. I enjoy researching CFB and have folders
    all over my desk on projects I working on. Finding a few good ones can be profitable.

    I am a big fan of those kind of angles. Always use that as a tool to increase my play or even to play a game that i am on the fence on.

    I'm surprised is goes back to 2007. thats 12 or 13 years and it only happened 53 times. So 4 or 5 times a year on average? Doesnt seem like much at all. I would think (with zero research) that this would happen more frequently.

    Not knocking your research 1 bit. Just surprised that it happens to infrequently
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  11. #186  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cloverleaf View Post
    The rumbling among fans really picked up during the second half of last year's 4-8 season. Going 0-4 against rival
    Clemson (outscored 55-184) hasn't helped. The problem is Muschamp is supported by the President and Athletic
    Director and he has a $13.5 million buyout if fired after this season. Florida paid Muschamp $6.3 million to leave
    in 2014...not sure SC will shell out over $13 million if he has another bad season.
    The buyout to get rid of him after the 2019 season was closer to $20 million. How does a coach like Muschamp get a buyout that big? It's time for the AD's to get the upper hand on the agents - who are often negotiating the buyouts for their fired client, while negotiating the new contract for the replacement. It's shameful (namely: Jimmy Sexton).

    The contracts that Barry Odom, Joe Moorhead, and Matt Luke had were very friendly towards the school - in relative comparison to today's contracts. Unless you're a Dabo or Saban you really don't deserve more than a 1 year buyout (which in many of these cases is worth upwards of $4 million to $6 million). Why on earth would a school agree to signing Will Muschamp to a 5 year guarantee? It's not like other schools are trying to poach him away!
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  12. #187  
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    Coach, schools are their own worst enemy sometimes. When Auburn gave Gus Malzahn a 7 year, $49 million
    contract, people were shocked. You don't think he would have signed a 4 year, $4 million deal to stay at a
    school he and his family love to work and live. He would have signed in a minute. Most coaches would. As
    you said, the agents are stressing the AD's into some bad contracts.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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    Louisville - After a 2-10 season under fired Bobby Petrino, new coach Scott Satterfield
    comes in and wins eight games and finished second in the Atlantic Division with a 5-3
    record. With quarterback Micale Cunningham, running back Javian Hawkins and wide
    receiver Tutu Atwell back, the offense should be explosive again. Having three O-line
    returners is also a plus. Improving a defense that allowed 33.4 points per game is the
    No. 1 priority this offseason. This group must get better against the run and pass. With
    most of the two-deep returning, the pieces are in place for this unit to improve for 2020.
    Road trips to Notre Dame and Clemson as well as home games with Florida State and
    Virginia Tech will be difficult, but the rest of the schedule is winnable. There is much
    optimism among Card faithful that this team can improve on last year's record, especially
    if the defense comes through.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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    Appalachian State - The Mountaineers were a Thursday night loss to Georgia Southern away
    from getting the New Year's Six bid. They beat North Carolina and South Carolina on the road,
    as they rolled to a 13-1 season and a Sun Belt championship. This year's team should be good
    again under new coach Shawn Clark. Eight starters are expected back on offense, and five are
    back on what should be another strong defense. This year's date against Georgia Southern is
    on the road, but the Arkansas State and ULL showdowns are at home. If they can beat either
    Wake Forest or Wisconsin...lookout. This program has the attitude and the ability to make some
    noise this season.

    Morgan State.....@Wake Forest.....@Wisconsin.....UMass.....Open Date.....ULL.....@Georgia
    Southern.....Arkansas State.....@ULM.....@Texas State.....Georgia State.....@Coastal Carolina
    …..Troy

    *App State has won 42 of their last 47 Sun Belt conference games and posted a 54-12 overall
    record the past five seasons.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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    Bet you didn't know.....

    The KANSAS JAYHAWKS are a miserable 6-90 straight up in conference games since 2009.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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    Florida International University - FIU went 6-7 in 2019, losing three of their last four and
    losing the Camellia Bowl to Arkansas State. It wasn't a banner year, but did get the team
    to its third straight bowl game. FIU has only been in the FBS since 2005. At first, they
    lived up to low expectations going 5-18 in their first two years. But then the Panthers picked
    up the pace in 2010 and 2011 taking its first bowl win. They slipped into another rut from
    2012-2016 winning 3, 1, 4, 5, and 4 games, but they have since bowled in three straight
    years. All in all, FIU is a fine program that's surpassing the expectations of most. Even with
    a lot of new faces this season, I would expect Butch Davis to lead his team in its fourth
    straight bowl game. Davis enters his 4th season with a 23-16 overall record. His teams have
    been break even for a wagering man going 19-17-1.

    Jacksonville State.....@Central Florida.....@Old Dominion.....@Liberty.....Open Date.....Middle
    Tennessee.....@Charlotte.....@UMass.....Marshall.....@UTEP.....FAU.....@Western Kentucky.....
    Louisiana Tech

    *Davis better have them ready for Jacksonville State or he will lose that game. With UCF up
    next, I'm not sure Jax State will get the full attention they deserve.

    **Tough 3 game road stretch against UCF, Old Dominion and Liberty could well define the
    season.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  17. #192  
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    Bet you didn't know.....

    Michigan State's Mark Dantonio is the first Big Ten football coach to record five
    11-win seasons in a six year span. Prior to that, MSU had never won 11 games
    in a season. (2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015) Dantonio also won 11 games in
    2017.

    *Dantonio was replaced by MSU after the 2019 season.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  18. #193  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cloverleaf View Post
    Florida International University - FIU went 6-7 in 2019, losing three of their last four and
    losing the Camellia Bowl to Arkansas State. It wasn't a banner year, but did get the team
    to its third straight bowl game. FIU has only been in the FBS since 2005. At first, they
    lived up to low expectations going 5-18 in their first two years. But then the Panthers picked
    up the pace in 2010 and 2011 taking its first bowl win. They slipped into another rut from
    2012-2016 winning 3, 1, 4, 5, and 4 games, but they have since bowled in three straight
    years. All in all, FIU is a fine program that's surpassing the expectations of most. Even with
    a lot of new faces this season, I would expect Butch Davis to lead his team in its fourth
    straight bowl game. Davis enters his 4th season with a 23-16 overall record. His teams have
    been break even for a wagering man going 19-17-1.

    Jacksonville State.....@Central Florida.....@Old Dominion.....@Liberty.....Open Date.....Middle
    Tennessee.....@Charlotte.....@UMass.....Marshall.....@UTEP.....FAU.....@Western Kentucky.....
    Louisiana Tech

    *Davis better have them ready for Jacksonville State or he will lose that game. With UCF up
    next, I'm not sure Jax State will get the full attention they deserve.

    **Tough 3 game road stretch against UCF, Old Dominion and Liberty could well define the
    season.

    They beat University of Miami at marlins stadium last year.

    Just think about it if Bama had some down years (yet their fans still think they are good) and lost to UAB
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  19. #194  
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    NCAA - The NCAA slashes payouts to schools in wake of the Coronavirus. Direct distribution
    was reduced to Division I conferences and schools for 2020 by about $375 million. According
    to the 2020 Division I Revenue Distribution Plan document, the NCAA had been scheduled to
    distribute just under $600 million directly to conferences and schools from April 15 through
    June 10. The reduction's impact on schools may vary by conference. Some of the NCAA money
    goes directly to schools, but most goes to conferences, which, in turn, have revenue-sharing
    arrangements. Losing the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament was costly to say the
    least. Losing the college football season would be devastating to most schools. Division II
    and Division III programs are being hammered with loss of funds.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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    Bet you didn't know.....

    David Pollack who is a host on ESPN Game Day was an outstanding football player for
    the Georgia Bulldogs (2001-2004). The 6-2, 265 pound defensive end was two time
    SEC Defensive Player of the Year. He was a three time first team All-American who won
    the Lombardi, Bednarik, Hendricks and Bednarik Awards for his defensive play. He's
    Georgia's all-time leader in sacks and tackles for loss. Recently, he was inducted into
    the College Football Hall of Fame.
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  21. #196  
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    Worst and Best Conference Records
    (Regular season conference records only last 5 years...league championship
    games not included)

    WORST (71-347)
    Kansas 3-42
    Rutgers 4-40
    UTEP 6-36
    Texas State 6-34
    UConn 7-33
    Oregon State 8-37
    East Carolina 8-32
    Arkansas 9-31
    Maryland 10-34
    Illinois 10-34

    BEST (337-60)
    Clemson 38-2
    Oklahoma 41-4
    Ohio State 40-4
    Alabama 36-4
    App State 35-5
    Boise State 33-7
    UAB 19-5
    Arkansas State 31-9
    Wisconsin 34-10
    Georgia 30-10
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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  22. #197  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knightrofins View Post
    ALL spring sports are cancelled (which includes spring football). The hard part of a june/july minicamp is that NOT all students are in town and will be hard for everyone to show up.
    I brought this up last week....and now it's being discussed (possible "OTA" type mini-camps):

    https://twitter.com/KyleRowland/stat...67469301276674

    https://twitter.com/suzhalliburton/s...00682807611392
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    COLLEGE FOOTBALL LOOKING AT ALTERNATIVES FOR 2020

    https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/...020/03/27.aspx


    • Amid a growing concern that the college football season could be pushed back, or even canceled, an alternative could come into play -- moving the season up to July, August and September, writes SBJ’s Michael Smith. Every other scenario has the season starting later in the fall, at a time when the coronavirus could be returning for another round of infections as the cool weather returns and a vaccine most likely unavailable until 2021. But staging an abbreviated college football season in the summer presents an opportunity to play games when the warm weather could help prevent the spread of the virus.

    • Such a drastic move would depend on a number of factors, according to sources Smith talked to this week:


      • Would campuses be open and able to properly staff games?
      • Would media partners be receptive to such a radical idea? Given the pent-up demand for live events by then, perhaps so?
      • Would fans turn out for football in the summer, especially with temperatures in the 90s? Would they even be permitted inside the stadium?
      • Could athletic departments recoup some of the revenue they’ve lost by staging a summer season?
      • How would a season work? It would almost have to be conference games only. Teams could start with a June mini-camp, July training camp and eight or nine games in August and September with no postseason.


    • These are questions that take time to answer, but alternative scenarios like summer football will be discussed by commissioners and athletic directors who will be desperate to play this season. There’s no guarantee that a fall season would succeed, and it might be more likely to fail if the virus returns. A summer season could be the only way to play college football in 2020.
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    Highly doubt an early season in 2020. I can see almost empty stadiums when games are played, remember TV is where most of the money is at. Could also see a team who has a player or staff member test positive goes into lockdown, all games cancelled.
    Expect to see a fast-tracked vaccine for COVID-19 as the economy cannot take too much!
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  25. #200  
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    Games of the Year

    Draft Kings has produced their "Games of the Year" betting odds for the upcoming
    season.

    Sept. 3 BYU vs. Utah -6.5

    Sept. 5 USC vs. Alabama -16.5
    Sept. 5 Michigan -1 @ Washington

    Sept. 12 Ohio St. -6.5 @ Oregon
    Sept. 12 Texas @ LSU -6.5

    Sept. 19 Georgia @ Alabama -7.5

    Sept. 26 Wisconsin @ Michigan -3.5
    Sept. 26 Cincinnati @ Nebraska -3.5

    Oct. 2 USC @ Utah -1.5

    Oct. 3 Baylor @ Oklahoma -13.5
    Oct. 3 Penn St. @ Michigan -3.5
    Oct. 3 Notre Dame @ Wisconsin -1

    Oct. 10 LSU @ Florida -1
    Oct. 10 Texas vs Oklahoma -3.5
    Oct. 10 Auburn @ Georgia -4.5
    Oct. 10 Minnesota @ Wisconsin -9.5

    Oct. 24 Ohio State -5.5 @ Penn State

    Nov. 7 USC @ Oregon -4.5
    Nov. 7 Alabama -2.5 @ LSU
    Nov. 7 Clemson -7.5 @ Notre Dame

    Nov. 28 Wisconsin -2.5 @ Iowa
    Nov. 28 Michigan @ Ohio State -7.5
    Nov. 28 Auburn @ Alabama -9.5

    *Several good games to choose from but the one that sticks out to me most is Baylor
    playing at Oklahoma. The Sooners will win and cover easily the 13.5 points.

    Who are some of the games you like?
    "Actually, the only time I ever took out a one-iron was to kill a snake. And
    I took a 9 to do that." Bill Murray
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