***** Excellent Article Written by Rob McVey, Contributor DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders~
*****5 Reasons Why the Kansas City Chiefs Will Win Super Bowl LIV~
1- Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes didn't put up the same kind of gaudy numbers during the 2019 regular season that paved the way to his NFL MVP. In fairness, he was out of commission for a couple of weeks following a dislocated kneecap, and an improved Kansas City defense in 2019 made for fewer shootouts, adversely affecting his stat lines compared to last season. Nevertheless, Mahomes still ranked among the league’s elite signal-callers during the regular season — passing for 4,031 yards with a 26-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio and posting the second-best QBR (78.0) in the league.
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2- Too Much Firepower
Leading the way for Kansas City’s high-octane offense are three Pro Bowlers: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Mecole Hardman. Hill, the NFL’s fastest man, led the Chiefs in touchdown receptions (7) during the regular season despite missing four games. Four-time All-Pro and perennial Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce led the Chiefs in both receptions (97) and receiving yards (1,229). And Mecole Hardman, whose speed is bested only by that of Tyreek Hill, earned All-Pro (2nd-team) and Pro Bowl honors as one of the most dangerous return specialists in the league. Hardman also ranked second on the team in touchdown receptions (6) despite making just five starts this season.
If that isn’t enough, speedy wide receiver Sammy Watkins is in the midst of a massive resurgence in the postseason, averaging an impressive 21.1 yards per reception through two playoff games. He racked up seven catches for 114 yards and a touchdown in the AFC title game alone. Adding more fuel to the fire for the Kansas City passing attack are wide receiver Demarcus Robinson and running back Damien Williams, who combined for 62 catches for 662 yards and six touchdowns during the regular season.
3- Answers For San Francisco's Pass Rush
If you’re going to beat the San Francisco 49ers, you’re going to have to find a way to neutralize (or at least temper) their vaunted pass rush. The Niners may be the best in the NFL when it comes to effectively disrupting opposing quarterbacks by rushing just four defenders, allowing everyone else to drop back into coverage. It’s a big reason for their defensive success this season. And stopping it is a tall order indeed. But the Chiefs have reason to be optimistic about their chances to do just that on Super Sunday.
Let’s start with a Kansas City offensive line that appears to be well-equipped to handle the San Francisco pass rush. An offensive line that allowed the third-fewest sacks (25) in the NFL during the regular season and graded out among the best in the league in pass protection according to PFF. A group that has been at its peak down the stretch, surrendering just nine sacks over its last eight games — all resulting in Kansas City wins. An O-line led by All-Pro right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, who hasn’t allowed a sack in 782 pass-blocking snaps this season.
Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have one of the most elusive quarterbacks in the NFL to help the cause. Mahomes is not only an ace when it comes to escaping pressure, he has a real knack for making difficult plays look routine under duress. Combine that with quality pass protection from the offensive line, and the Chiefs stand a very good chance of tempering the 49ers’ biggest threat on defense.
4- A Defense On The Rise
No one is ever going to confuse the Kansas City defense for that of the ’85 Bears. But the Chiefs have made positive strides under new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo this season. A revamped secondary, led by All-Pro (2nd-team) defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, has taken the biggest leap in 2019. A Chiefs pass defense that ranked a dismal 31st in the NFL in 2018 wrapped up the '19 regular season as the league’s eighth-best pass defense. Kansas City ranked fifth in interceptions (16), and a solid pass rush, led by Pro Bowlers Chris Jones and Frank Clark, compiled 45 sacks during the regular season (11th most in the NFL). The Chiefs also limited opponents to a much-improved 37 percent conversion rate on third downs. And during the final five weeks of the regular season, no NFL team allowed fewer points than Kansas City (10.4 points per game).
But that still leaves the elephant in the room — the Kansas City run defense. The Chiefs once again ranked among the worst defenses in the league in regard to stopping the run during the regular season, allowing 128 yards per game. That doesn’t exactly bode well with a Super Bowl matchup looming against emerging superstar Raheem Mostert and the NFL’s No. 2-ranked rush offense. At least, not at first glance
A deeper look shows a Kansas City run defense that has shown drastic improvement down the stretch. The Chiefs haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 12. And over their last five games (including the postseason), they are giving up just 88.0 rushing yards per game on average. More importantly, the Chiefs did something in their latest contest that no other defense has been able to do in a very long time — hold Titans star running back Derrick Henry in check. A similar effort from Kansas City’s new and improved run defense would go a long way in suppressing San Francisco’s potent ground attack in Super Bowl LIV.
5- An edge in Momentum and Experience
Both teams ride a huge wave of momentum into Super Sunday. But Kansas City’s wave might just be a bit taller. The Chiefs are currently in the midst of an eight-game winning streak. The 49ers are 6-2 during that same stretch, including an inexplicable loss to the Falcons in Week 15. Kansas City also makes its way into Super Bowl LIV averaging a ridiculous 43 points per game during the postseason — advantage KC.
While San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan has quickly risen to the top of the NFL coaching ranks for good reason, he’s lacking in one critical area — experience. That brings up a key question: Who would you rather have leading your team into the Super Bowl? Kyle Shanahan, who has just 50 games under his belt as a head coach with a .500 record. Or Andy Reid, sixth in NFL history with 221 career victories. It seems like a no-brainer. As the old adage goes — experience wins championships
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