Offense vs Defense by the numbers

HAWKEYESSUCK · Feb 2, 2020

These are based on the 16 regular and 2 post season games for both KC and SF.

The KC offense(ranked 6) averaged 29.83 pts/game against defenses with avg ranking of 16.0
The SF offense(ranked 4) averaged 30.17 pts/game against defenses with avg ranking of 19.33.

The KC defense(ranked 17) gave up an avg of 20.17 pts/game against offenses with avg rank of 16.11
The SF defense(ranked 2) gave up an avg of 18.89 pts/game against offenses with avg rank of 15.72.

The avg of KC off and SF def is 29.83+18.89/2=24.36.
The avg of SF off and KC def is 30.17+20.17/2=25.17.

25.17 - 24.36 = 0.81
25.17+24.36 = 49.53

So I got SF -1 & the o/u at 49.53.

As a better, I am going to tease this to KC+6 & under 61 for 10 units. And also put 5 units on the under 54.

As a KC season ticket holder, I am going to predict KC goes up 14 early and forces SF to play so catchup and get off their game plan. When the clock runs out Mahomes will have 5 TD throws and KC wins 44 - 27 and I eat BBQ till I burst.

Best of Luck on all your KC bets.

HAWKEYESSUCK · Feb 2, 2020

I mistyped. It should be 5 units on the over 54.

Serbone · Feb 2, 2020

Respectfully though I would like to see coach Reid get a SB, I’m thinking SF ML and maybe a few small alt lines -2.5 & -6.5.

The SF 3 headed running game is much more sophisticated than the Titans vanilla approach. Sure, Henry is a top back but they employ limited plays and if he fails to get momentum initially he is in trouble.

Garoppolo is underrated by the media narrative that slobbers over Mahomes 24/7/365. Garoppolo will hit some big plays today, too.

Mahomes is a top 3 QB in the NFL, sure, but this is the best D he’s seen. He enjoys the fastest 3 WRs in the NFL plus a great TE. With 2 weeks SF will prepare to keep Mahomes from buying time in the pocket too often. Not easy to do, but KC lack of running game matters in this situation and SF has a speedy front 7.

By far the worst unit on the field is the KC defense. They struggle against motion offenses and SF runs it a lot. Run run run then 20 yard pass! SF will get >200 running yards and eat clock. Garoppolo will get >250 PYs.

If turnovers don’t hurt them too much, and the penalties are called somewhat fairly, I see SF by 10-14 points.

GL!

HAWKEYESSUCK · Feb 3, 2020

Serbone said:
Respectfully though I would like to see coach Reid get a SB, I’m thinking SF ML and maybe a few small alt lines -2.5 & -6.5.

The SF 3 headed running game is much more sophisticated than the Titans vanilla approach. Sure, Henry is a top back but they employ limited plays and if he fails to get momentum initially he is in trouble.

Garoppolo is underrated by the media narrative that slobbers over Mahomes 24/7/365. Garoppolo will hit some big plays today, too.

Mahomes is a top 3 QB in the NFL, sure, but this is the best D he’s seen. He enjoys the fastest 3 WRs in the NFL plus a great TE. With 2 weeks SF will prepare to keep Mahomes from buying time in the pocket too often. Not easy to do, but KC lack of running game matters in this situation and SF has a speedy front 7.

By far the worst unit on the field is the KC defense. They struggle against motion offenses and SF runs it a lot. Run run run then 20 yard pass! SF will get >200 running yards and eat clock. Garoppolo will get >250 PYs.

If turnovers don’t hurt them too much, and the penalties are called somewhat fairly, I see SF by 10-14 points.

You predicted the front 7 would harass Mahomes and they truly did. I picked the winner. That's about all we got right. LOL. Till next year

Offense vs Defense by the numbers

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