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Thread: XFL Week 2 Discussion Thread

  1. #1 XFL Week 2 Discussion Thread 
    RX Senior MikeyLo's Avatar
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    Looking Back at Week 1:

    Results

    • Home Team: 3-1 Straight Up, 3-1 ATS
    • Favorites: 2-2 Straight Up, 2-2 ATS
    • Under: 3-1 Against the Closing Number* (*Seattle/DC went over the opener but Under the closing number)


    Yards Per Play

    1. DC 6.3
    2. Houston 5.6
    3. Tampa Bay 5.5
    4. St. Louis 5.3
    5. New York 5.0
    6. Seattle 4.8
    7. Dallas 4.5
    8. LA 3.9


    Initial Takeaways

    • At first glance you might think the clock rules favor the under with the clock running after incomplete passes except for the last 2 minutes of the half - but the clock really slows down in the last 2 minutes stopping after every play to spot the ball. Under was looking great in the Seattle/DC game until the last 2 minutes of the first half. Do any books offer in game wagers? Might be an advantage hitting the in game over at the 2 minute warning of the 1st half.
    • There is more going for it on 4th down as punts out of bounds and into the endzone result in the ball at the 35 yard line
    • Iím not sure key numbers exist in this league with the PAT rules


    Seattle 19 @ D.C. 31: (DC -7.5, o/u 51)

    • Close first half. DC outscored Seattle 19-6 in 3rd Quarter (no points in 4th Quarter)
    • DC benefitted from a blocked punt TD, INT TD where the receiver fell down, and Seattle fumble inside the 5 yard line. Potentially misleading final score based on that although DC did average 6.3 yards per play vs 4.8 for Seattle


    LA 17 @ Houston 37: (Houston -6.5, o/u 51.5)

    • Close first half, Houston dominated the second half 19-0
    • Canít find the exact number but If I remember correctly turnovers were something like 5-0 LA
    • Hou QB Walker looked good
    • LA benched starting QB Kanoff. Backup McClendon didnít do anything


    Tampa Bay 3 @ New York 23: (Tampa Bay -4, o/u 52.5)

    • TB looked horrible. As a Bears fan it looked all too familiar for a Trestman coached team. Lots of confusion and Murray looked bad.
    • Oddsmakers loved TB coming into the season. Weíll see how much they adjust?


    St. Louis 15 @ Dallas 9: (Dallas -9.5,o/u 52.5)

    • Stoops seems pretty disinterested?
    • Dallas Starting QB Jones didnít play
    • STL kept the playcalling pretty simple for 22 year old QB Taíamu. Not too many chances.
    • Lots of penalties for STL
    • STL defense made a lot of plays


    Looking Ahead to Week 2:

    Time to Prepare:

    • -1 Day: New York (Gilbride), Tampa Bay (Trestman)
    • Regular: DC (Hamilton), Seattle (Zorn), Dallas (Stoops), St. Louis (Hayes)
    • +1 Day: Houston (Jones), Los Angeles (Moss)


    Travel

    • Back to Back Home Games: DC (Hamilton), Houston (Jones)
    • Back to Back Road Games: Tampa Bay (Trestman), St. Louis (Hayes)
    • Long Flight: Tampa Bay to Seattle for 2nd Consecutive Road Game


    New York (1-0) @ DC (1-0)

    • -1 day to prepare for NY (Gilbride), plus travel
    • Think NY may be a little overvalued based on week 1 result but my theory is that was more a result of TB being bad than NY being good. Weíll see, but I lean DC in their second straight home game if line is under a TD.


    Tampa Bay (0-1) @ Seattle (0-1)

    • Seattle with an extra day to prepare and long flight for Tampa Bay (Trestman)
    • Lean: SEA. TB has a lot of figure out and a short week with a long flight to do it. TB was a road fav this week. If they are again I may hammer SEA.


    Dallas (0-1) @ LA (0-1)

    • LA (Moss) extra day to prepare
    • Need to monitor Dallas QB situation - sounds like Jones has barely practiced
    • Initial lean to LA.


    St. Louis (1-0) @ Houston (1-0)

    • Houston (Jones) 1 more day to prepare than St. Louis (Hayes)
    • Contrasting styles. Hou Air Raid vs. STL RPO
    • Initial thought is that STL offense will have a hard time keeping up with Houston offense


    My Power Rankings

    1. Houston - Really complete win on Saturday. Seems like the kind of league that June Jones could really be tough in.
    2. DC - Cardale Jones and offense looked good in Week 1 but they may have been a little lucky with blocked punt and pick 6
    3. St. Louis - Only team to get a road win in week 1 and they did it as the biggest underdog of the week. Defense looked really good against a backup QB. Need to clean up the penalties but Taíamu showed poise and skill.
    4. New York - Only defense to hold a team under 6 points in week 1. McGloin solid in 23-3 win.
    5. Seattle - Hung with DC on the road but special teams and turnovers let them down.
    6. Dallas - Disappointing home loss to open the season. Can Landry Jones turn them around?
    7. LA - Hung with Houston for a half before getting completely shut down in the 2nd half. Not sure how much of that was how good Houston is or how bad they are?
    8. Tampa Bay - Trestmanís team looked confused and Murray looked really bad. Brutal week one showing.


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  2. #2  
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    Nice write-up. I think a big reason the oddsmakers liked Tampa is because Trestman was very successful in the CFL.

    Running QB's seem legit in this league so far as we don't have any Tommy Maddox/Tom Bradyesque pocket passers.
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  3. #3  
    RX Senior MikeyLo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsFan1283 View Post
    Nice write-up. I think a big reason the oddsmakers liked Tampa is because Trestman was very successful in the CFL.

    Running QB's seem legit in this league so far as we don't have any Tommy Maddox/Tom Bradyesque pocket passers.
    Thanks man, I agree with you on both
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  4. #4  
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    Great write-up Mikey!
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  5. #5  
    RX Junior Mr. Bojangles's Avatar
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    Nice writeup! I agree with the live over bets!! although both live over bets lost yesterday lol, that seems like the best opportunity to make some money.
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  6. #6  
    RX Senior MikeyLo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Bojangles View Post
    Nice writeup! I agree with the live over bets!! although both live over bets lost yesterday lol, that seems like the best opportunity to make some money.
    Thanks man. Where did you play those?
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  7. #7  
    RX Senior MikeyLo's Avatar
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    https://www.thescore.com/xfl/news/19...en-joining-xfl

    Hearing rumors on twitter that he may be going to LA
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  8. #8  
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    I heard last week that the oddsmakers how no clue how to cap games so they opened all the totals at 40 (based on how AAC games went last yr)....Each game was bet up like crazy within hours. I heard they even got as high as 53.

    Guess the books did well
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  9. #9  
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    MikeyLo - great stuff. Let me add one further observation regarding the last two minute warning in the XFL. The bettor is really going to have to sweat out these last 120 seconds regarding both the point spread and final totals outcome. Not only does the game clock stop after each play but there is also a 5 second runoff on the 25 second play clock as well. So a team with the lead (looking to close out the game) has to get off two plays (20 seconds each) instead of an NFL team having to get off only one play in 40 seconds. It virtually forces the team with the lead to get two first downs to close it out. Throw in the inevitable poor clock management by these new coaches (heck we see it in the NFL all the time in the final two minutes) and brace yourself for some interesting finishes.
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  10. #10  
    RX Semi-God Ilovetobet's Avatar
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    Thanks nice write up.
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  11. #11  
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    Thanks for the write-ups. Keep em coming!
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  12. #12  
    RX Junior MSUSpartans's Avatar
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    Dont know how accurate this site will be but let's find out:

    https://www.actionnetwork.com/xfl/we...ojections-2020

    Projected Week 2 XFL Spreads & Over/Unders

    Below are the initial consensus projected odds from Sean Koerner and Matthew Freedman, our director of predictive analysis and the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, respectively.


    New York Guardians at DC Defenders
    Projected Spread: Defenders -3
    Projected Total: 47.5
    Kickoff: 2 p.m. ET on Saturday
    TV: ABC

    Tampa Bay Vipers at Seattle Dragons
    Projected Spread: Vipers -2.5
    Projected Total: 46
    Kickoff: 5 p.m. ET on Saturday
    TV: FOX

    Dallas Renegades at Los Angeles Wildcats
    Projected Spread: Renegades -4
    Projected Total: 47
    Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET on Sunday
    TV: ABC

    St. Louis BattleHawks at Houston Roughnecks
    Projected Spread: Roughnecks -7
    Projected Total: 50
    Kickoff: 6 p.m. ET on Sunday
    TV: FS1
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  13. #13  
    RX Senior MikeyLo's Avatar
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    Thanks all for the contributions. Let’s crush the XFL!
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  14. #14  
    RX Senior MikeyLo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeyLo View Post
    https://www.thescore.com/xfl/news/19...en-joining-xfl

    Hearing rumors on twitter that he may be going to LA
    He signed with Seattle. Donít know if he will play this week but Iím already on the Dragons
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  15. #15  
    RX Junior MSUSpartans's Avatar
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    Totals are out. Dropping from 50+ from the first week as expected. Other than the DC line, pretty accurate predictions

    New York Guardians at DC Defenders -.6.5 T48


    Tampa Bay Vipers -2.5 at Seattle Dragons T46


    Dallas Renegades -4.5 at Los Angeles Wildcats T47


    St. Louis BattleHawks at Houston Roughnecks -8 T49
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  16. #16 Great Talk Here 
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    Think the total in the NY/DC game is high Took U48 already
    The line is moving, up to 6.5, Not sure DC should be that big of a favorite
    Over reaction to winning by 20 week 1 possibly.
    May take NY +7 if it gets there. Have to really think about it.

    Agree with above about Tampa being in a tough spot this week in Seattle.
    Short week, long trip, Seattle home opener, etc. Took Seattle +3 already
    Not sure Tampa is as good as they were sold to be. If they win in Seattle, hats off to them.
    I hope they lose as I will be looking to take them week 3 at home.

    LA and Dallas Really need to see who the QB's will be for both teams
    Dallas 4 point favorite in LA. Can't really give anything on this game without knowing who the QB's are.

    St Louis at Houston. Interesting, thought Houston would have a good offense and put points up.
    St Louis surprised in Dallas, at least I thought so. They ran and ran and ran.
    Don't think this game will play out the same for them.
    Leaning to Houston 7.5/8 right now.

    I do think the teams play slow and conservative the first week. With the rules and coaches/players getting more familiar moving forward
    I think the scoring will go up. Also teams will have to pass, running teams will be at a distinct disadvantage.

    Think this week is going to be low scoring again.
    Peace offering...let's see what happens...
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  17. #17  
    RX Junior Mr. Bojangles's Avatar
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    betonline.ag has o/u at 43.5 for seattle and tampa bay..that seems quite low?
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  18. #18  
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    Solid write up, tough finding info on the XFL.

    I like the Guardians(+7) & i'm thinking about sprinkling that +210 as well.

    As a Bears fan and Trestman hater, I want to lock-in Seattle (+100), Trestman's squad looked terrible last week, but Murray is out and offense seemed to run smoothly with Flowers under center...... thoughts on this would be appreciated.

    Thanks for the info, BOL w/ your plays.
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  19. #19  
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    Already played from above:

    NY/DC U48
    Seattle +3

    Adding:

    Houston 7.5
    See St Louis having trouble stopping the Houston passing attack, St Louis offense will not be able to keep up with what I saw of
    them last week. Run heavy is not going to keep this game close. Houston defense will stop their run game and the pass game was not good last week
    do not see that much improvement in a week.

    May add Dallas now that Landry Jones is starting, LA QB position could be a mess this week. Josh Johnson does not look to be playing, backup is banged up and may not play. Think the Dallas with Jones running a Mummi offense will put up some points. Backup last week could not pull the trigger down the field at all. He was capt. checkdown. It will be throw, throw, throw some more.
    Peace offering...let's see what happens...
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  20. #20  
    RX Junior rxman's Avatar
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    I'll be at the DC Defenders game in the front row on the Guardians bench, and it is going to be 32 degrees cold.
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  21. #21  
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    I think Tampa Bay performed better than most give them credit for. 4 redzone trips with 0 touchdowns. I really like Tampa Bay -1.5
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  22. #22  
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    Dragons still asleep....
    Understand others, don't blame them.
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