Looking Back at Week 1:
Results
Yards Per Play
Initial Takeaways
Seattle 19 @ D.C. 31: (DC -7.5, o/u 51)
LA 17 @ Houston 37: (Houston -6.5, o/u 51.5)
Tampa Bay 3 @ New York 23: (Tampa Bay -4, o/u 52.5)
St. Louis 15 @ Dallas 9: (Dallas -9.5,o/u 52.5)
Looking Ahead to Week 2:
Time to Prepare:
Travel
New York (1-0) @ DC (1-0)
Tampa Bay (0-1) @ Seattle (0-1)
Dallas (0-1) @ LA (0-1)
St. Louis (1-0) @ Houston (1-0)
My Power Rankings
Results
- Home Team: 3-1 Straight Up, 3-1 ATS
- Favorites: 2-2 Straight Up, 2-2 ATS
- Under: 3-1 Against the Closing Number* (*Seattle/DC went over the opener but Under the closing number)
Yards Per Play
- DC 6.3
- Houston 5.6
- Tampa Bay 5.5
- St. Louis 5.3
- New York 5.0
- Seattle 4.8
- Dallas 4.5
- LA 3.9
Initial Takeaways
- At first glance you might think the clock rules favor the under with the clock running after incomplete passes except for the last 2 minutes of the half - but the clock really slows down in the last 2 minutes stopping after every play to spot the ball. Under was looking great in the Seattle/DC game until the last 2 minutes of the first half. Do any books offer in game wagers? Might be an advantage hitting the in game over at the 2 minute warning of the 1st half.
- There is more going for it on 4th down as punts out of bounds and into the endzone result in the ball at the 35 yard line
- I’m not sure key numbers exist in this league with the PAT rules
Seattle 19 @ D.C. 31: (DC -7.5, o/u 51)
- Close first half. DC outscored Seattle 19-6 in 3rd Quarter (no points in 4th Quarter)
- DC benefitted from a blocked punt TD, INT TD where the receiver fell down, and Seattle fumble inside the 5 yard line. Potentially misleading final score based on that although DC did average 6.3 yards per play vs 4.8 for Seattle
LA 17 @ Houston 37: (Houston -6.5, o/u 51.5)
- Close first half, Houston dominated the second half 19-0
- Can’t find the exact number but If I remember correctly turnovers were something like 5-0 LA
- Hou QB Walker looked good
- LA benched starting QB Kanoff. Backup McClendon didn’t do anything
Tampa Bay 3 @ New York 23: (Tampa Bay -4, o/u 52.5)
- TB looked horrible. As a Bears fan it looked all too familiar for a Trestman coached team. Lots of confusion and Murray looked bad.
- Oddsmakers loved TB coming into the season. We’ll see how much they adjust?
St. Louis 15 @ Dallas 9: (Dallas -9.5,o/u 52.5)
- Stoops seems pretty disinterested?
- Dallas Starting QB Jones didn’t play
- STL kept the playcalling pretty simple for 22 year old QB Ta’amu. Not too many chances.
- Lots of penalties for STL
- STL defense made a lot of plays
Looking Ahead to Week 2:
Time to Prepare:
- -1 Day: New York (Gilbride), Tampa Bay (Trestman)
- Regular: DC (Hamilton), Seattle (Zorn), Dallas (Stoops), St. Louis (Hayes)
- +1 Day: Houston (Jones), Los Angeles (Moss)
Travel
- Back to Back Home Games: DC (Hamilton), Houston (Jones)
- Back to Back Road Games: Tampa Bay (Trestman), St. Louis (Hayes)
- Long Flight: Tampa Bay to Seattle for 2nd Consecutive Road Game
New York (1-0) @ DC (1-0)
- -1 day to prepare for NY (Gilbride), plus travel
- Think NY may be a little overvalued based on week 1 result but my theory is that was more a result of TB being bad than NY being good. We’ll see, but I lean DC in their second straight home game if line is under a TD.
Tampa Bay (0-1) @ Seattle (0-1)
- Seattle with an extra day to prepare and long flight for Tampa Bay (Trestman)
- Lean: SEA. TB has a lot of figure out and a short week with a long flight to do it. TB was a road fav this week. If they are again I may hammer SEA.
Dallas (0-1) @ LA (0-1)
- LA (Moss) extra day to prepare
- Need to monitor Dallas QB situation - sounds like Jones has barely practiced
- Initial lean to LA.
St. Louis (1-0) @ Houston (1-0)
- Houston (Jones) 1 more day to prepare than St. Louis (Hayes)
- Contrasting styles. Hou Air Raid vs. STL RPO
- Initial thought is that STL offense will have a hard time keeping up with Houston offense
My Power Rankings
- Houston - Really complete win on Saturday. Seems like the kind of league that June Jones could really be tough in.
- DC - Cardale Jones and offense looked good in Week 1 but they may have been a little lucky with blocked punt and pick 6
- St. Louis - Only team to get a road win in week 1 and they did it as the biggest underdog of the week. Defense looked really good against a backup QB. Need to clean up the penalties but Ta’amu showed poise and skill.
- New York - Only defense to hold a team under 6 points in week 1. McGloin solid in 23-3 win.
- Seattle - Hung with DC on the road but special teams and turnovers let them down.
- Dallas - Disappointing home loss to open the season. Can Landry Jones turn them around?
- LA - Hung with Houston for a half before getting completely shut down in the 2nd half. Not sure how much of that was how good Houston is or how bad they are?
- Tampa Bay - Trestman’s team looked confused and Murray looked really bad. Brutal week one showing.
