Late Season System

strata10 · Feb 19, 2020

Going to post now through the start of conference tournaments, but this is based on the old KenPom system that others have mentioned/posted in the past. It's not the original but uses a lot of the same elements, and adds a 1/2 unit on the ML, should have started Monday night but haven't had a chance to post.

3 games tonight:

Samford +7, 1.1 to win 1.0
Samford ML +250, 0.5 to win 1.25

UL Monroe +7.5, 1.1 to win 1.0
UL Monroe ML +290, 0.5 to win 1.45

Fordham +7.5, 1.1 to win 1.0
Fordham ML +280, 0.5 to win 1.4

Good luck!

G.MONEY · Feb 19, 2020

TY FOr sharing

cashflowmatters · Feb 19, 2020

GL on the CBB action

indiana · Feb 19, 2020

S/10.....BOL with your plays tonight buddy..........indy

strata10 · Feb 20, 2020

Last Night:

Sides: 1-2 -1.2
MLs: 1-2 +0.45

Overall: 2-4 -0.75

UL Monroe came to play and dominated from start to finish, Fordham slightly unlucky, really could have gone either way down the stretch. Samford looked OK early but Mercer ended the first half on a big run and then won going away in the second half. These plays are on poor teams, so when they lose they can lose big.

After I posted, I saw Lamar was really close to being a play and almost added them, I get a little gunshy on games not in the conferences the system was initially built on. I do check those and will add them if one fits the criteria.

I see a few plays for tonight, I'll have them posted later today.

strata10 · Feb 20, 2020

Playing 3 games tonight, two others fit the traditional criteria but not including them in official plays.

Troy +8, 1.1/1
Troy ML +300, 0.5/1.5

Evansville +8.5, 1.1/1
Evansville ML +350, 0.5/1.75

SE Missouri ST +8, 1.1/1
SE Missouri ST ML +300, 0.5/1.5

Passes: UNC Asheville +10 (I don't like fading teams that are vying for conference titles and Radford is 12-2, this is borderline either way)
Kennesaw St +13.5 (Kennesaw is rated 351/353 teams in NCAAB, just a handful of teams I won't put money on and they're one, but they do fit the system)

strata10 · Feb 21, 2020

Troy gets blown out in the second half, Evansville was hanging around and had a chance to cover but a late run did them in. SE Missouri St comes through with a 7 point loss. Both games I said were plays but passed were losers and that’s why I didn’t want to play them.

Yesterday:
Sides: 1-2, -1.2
MLs: 0-3, -1.5

Overall:
Sides: 2-4, -2.4
MLs: 1-5, -1.05

These are games to just stick with and keep playing. I’ll post today’s later on.

Ttratter · Feb 21, 2020

what are the basic parameters?

strata10 · Feb 21, 2020

Parameters are to fade a home team with KenPom rating greater than 165 (I’ve also seen 180 used), favored by 6.5+, opening line also has to be 6.5 or higher (so not bet up into the number).

Friday plays:

Mt.St. Mary’s +6.5, 1.1/1.0
Mt. St. Mary’s ML +250, 0.5/1.25

Central Conn St. +8, 1.1/1.0
Central Conn St ML +310, 0.5/1.55

strata10 · Feb 22, 2020

0-2 last night, both had a chance to get there and unfortunately neither did. MSM more frustrating with the late fouling

overall:
Sides: 2-6, -4.6
MLs: 1-7, -2.05

strata10 · Feb 22, 2020

Saturday Plays:

St. Joseph's +9 and ML +400
New Orleans +6.5 and ML +230
S. Carolina St. +7 and ML +250
Wyoming +8 and ML +300
UT-Martin +9.5 and ML +400
High Point +6.5 and ML +240
IUPUI +9.5 and ML +410

All plays are -110 and for 1 unit, All ML are 0.5 units.

Also monitoring playing these as 1H plays.

Passes on extremely poor teams: Delaware St, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Houston Baptist, Howard, Kennesaw St (Cent. Conn last night was right in this group and they proved that they can fall apart at any time)
Passes for line movement: Presbyterian (opened at +6 from what I see)

I also use a second team rating system as a check on KenPom ratings: two teams that fell between 165-180 on KP ranked in the top 150 on there and as a result I'm also passing on fading Towson and W. Carolina.

strata10 · Feb 23, 2020

Saturday results:

Sides: 6-1, +4.9
MLs: 2-5, +0.15

overall:
Sides: 8-7, +0.3
MLs: 3-12, -1.9

A great day overall for the system, even the really bad teams I believe went 3-2. Other passes went 0-3. Back with Sunday plays later.

strata10 · Feb 23, 2020

LIU Brooklyn +7.5, 1.1/1
LIU Brooklyn ML +320, 0.5/1.6

Quinnipiac +6.5, 1.1/1
Quinnipiac ML +240, 0.5/1.2

strata10 · Feb 24, 2020

Sunday recap:

Sides: 1-1, -0.1
MLs: 0-2, -1.0

Overall:
Sides: 9-8, +0.2
MLs: 3-14, -2.9

May scrap playing the ML, not sure there are any system plays tonight.

Ttratter · Feb 24, 2020

Hampton should have been

strata10 · Feb 24, 2020

Hampton was a resumed game from January 20, I saw it on kenpom but no line posted at any book I saw. Didn’t fit the system. All three of Delaware St, UMES and Howard fit but all were passes based on them being horrible and not worth betting on in any scenario.

Ttratter · Feb 24, 2020

Garner Webb opened at 8.5 went to 7.5 many places had lines on this game

strata10 · Feb 25, 2020

Hampton may or may not have been a play last night but the passes on horrible teams went 1-2. No plays tonight

cashflowmatters · Feb 25, 2020

Thanks for doing this

Ttratter · Feb 25, 2020

why isnt wyoming a play? jc

Late Season System

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