Interesting article from Steve Petrella
A Monte Carlo simulation run by Carlton Chin and Jay Granat in 2010 gave the U.S. 1,000-1 odds to win Gold entering the tournament.
But they say those odds should probably have been closer to 17-1 based on what we ended up seeing through the first five games from the Americans.
The U.S. was seeded seventh entering the Olympics, but this team had never played together in a real tournament and there was no data on them. So in hindsight, 17-1 feels about right.
Chin and Granat gave the Soviets a 77% chance to win Gold — that translates to -335, and with the juice added to a futures market, let’s put them around -450.
The weird nature of hockey is why you can’t set this line astronomically high, like 100-1. The Soviets weren’t a 99% lock to win gold or this game.
I like to joke with my co-worker Michael Leboff that every NHL game should be lined at -110 on both sides because hockey is an inherently random game. It’s played on ice. The puck is rubber and it does strange stuff.
A hot goalie, weird bounces and capitalizing on a single opportunity can turn one game on its head. And that’s what happened in 1980.
The Soviet Union was of course a dominant force, winning Gold at the previous four Olympics and 12 of the last 16 world championships.
They entered that game against the U.S. with a 51-12 goal differential in round robin play, but 33 of those goals came against lowly Japan and the Netherlands.
The Soviets beat Canada 6-4 and Finland 4-2 in their final two pool play games. This wasn’t a team winning every game by 12 goals like the movie Miracle seems to imply.
The Americans had outscored their opponents 25-10 to that point, playing arguably the best defense in the tournament.
But this was still a monumental upset given the circumstances.
To make a betting line, we of course need a pregame probability.
Chin and Granat said in an email that their Monte Carlo simulations would have put the United States’ chances to win that game somewhere in the 7% and 14% range, creating a moneyline of anywhere from 6-1 to 12-1.
Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System still makes the Russians about 2.5 goals stronger than the Americans after the tournament, so the gap was even wider entering that medal-round game, likely between 3 and 3.5.
Using comparable upcoming games from international hockey markets like the KHL (since the gap in talent is much wider than the NHL), a 3.5-goal gap in relative ability between two teams will lead you to odds of about -2,200 on the favorite and 10-1 to 12-1 on the underdog. That’s in line with Chin and Granat’s simulations.
But this would have been a three-way market, meaning you have to include a draw.
The Olympic medal round in 1980 was its own round robin, not an elimination bracket. USA’s game against the Soviet Union wasn’t a semifinal, but one of three results in a round robin that were all weighted equally. The Soviets actually ended up winning Silver, and would have won Gold had the U.S. not beaten Finland in its next game.
This game could have ended in a tie.
So here’s our opening line, with just over a 12% hold by sportsbooks. The hold on a game when both sides are -110 is 4.8%, but in events when the gap between the two teams is much larger, you’ll often see bigger holds.
Opening Line
Soviet Union -2000
United States +1200
Draw +1000
After oddsmakers set an initial number, it’s the betting market that dictates where it goes. And it’s fascinating to think about what a betting market may have looked like for this game, had modern markets and technology been available.
On one hand, recency bias should have scared anyone off wanting to bet the Americans. They were trounced by the Soviets 10-3 in an exhibition just before the Olympics. And the score could have been much worse, according to a contemporary account from the New York Daily News.
But on the other hand, patriotism can often run rampant in American sports betting. Your weasel of a friend may have been in the corner tying the Soviet moneyline into some parlays, but the rest of the party would have taken a shot on the American moneyline (though sadly the game was shown on tape delay in the United States, so betting would have closed).
Considering the only option to bet on this game in America was with a local bookie, I’m guessing they would have shaded the lines down a touch, depending on their risk aversion.
Closing Line
Soviet Union -1600
United States +1000
Draw +1050
That gives us the same hold as the opening lines above.
A Monte Carlo simulation run by Carlton Chin and Jay Granat in 2010 gave the U.S. 1,000-1 odds to win Gold entering the tournament.
But they say those odds should probably have been closer to 17-1 based on what we ended up seeing through the first five games from the Americans.
The U.S. was seeded seventh entering the Olympics, but this team had never played together in a real tournament and there was no data on them. So in hindsight, 17-1 feels about right.
Chin and Granat gave the Soviets a 77% chance to win Gold — that translates to -335, and with the juice added to a futures market, let’s put them around -450.
The weird nature of hockey is why you can’t set this line astronomically high, like 100-1. The Soviets weren’t a 99% lock to win gold or this game.
I like to joke with my co-worker Michael Leboff that every NHL game should be lined at -110 on both sides because hockey is an inherently random game. It’s played on ice. The puck is rubber and it does strange stuff.
A hot goalie, weird bounces and capitalizing on a single opportunity can turn one game on its head. And that’s what happened in 1980.
The Soviet Union was of course a dominant force, winning Gold at the previous four Olympics and 12 of the last 16 world championships.
They entered that game against the U.S. with a 51-12 goal differential in round robin play, but 33 of those goals came against lowly Japan and the Netherlands.
The Soviets beat Canada 6-4 and Finland 4-2 in their final two pool play games. This wasn’t a team winning every game by 12 goals like the movie Miracle seems to imply.
The Americans had outscored their opponents 25-10 to that point, playing arguably the best defense in the tournament.
But this was still a monumental upset given the circumstances.
To make a betting line, we of course need a pregame probability.
Chin and Granat said in an email that their Monte Carlo simulations would have put the United States’ chances to win that game somewhere in the 7% and 14% range, creating a moneyline of anywhere from 6-1 to 12-1.
Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System still makes the Russians about 2.5 goals stronger than the Americans after the tournament, so the gap was even wider entering that medal-round game, likely between 3 and 3.5.
Using comparable upcoming games from international hockey markets like the KHL (since the gap in talent is much wider than the NHL), a 3.5-goal gap in relative ability between two teams will lead you to odds of about -2,200 on the favorite and 10-1 to 12-1 on the underdog. That’s in line with Chin and Granat’s simulations.
But this would have been a three-way market, meaning you have to include a draw.
The Olympic medal round in 1980 was its own round robin, not an elimination bracket. USA’s game against the Soviet Union wasn’t a semifinal, but one of three results in a round robin that were all weighted equally. The Soviets actually ended up winning Silver, and would have won Gold had the U.S. not beaten Finland in its next game.
This game could have ended in a tie.
So here’s our opening line, with just over a 12% hold by sportsbooks. The hold on a game when both sides are -110 is 4.8%, but in events when the gap between the two teams is much larger, you’ll often see bigger holds.
Opening Line
Soviet Union -2000
United States +1200
Draw +1000
After oddsmakers set an initial number, it’s the betting market that dictates where it goes. And it’s fascinating to think about what a betting market may have looked like for this game, had modern markets and technology been available.
On one hand, recency bias should have scared anyone off wanting to bet the Americans. They were trounced by the Soviets 10-3 in an exhibition just before the Olympics. And the score could have been much worse, according to a contemporary account from the New York Daily News.
But on the other hand, patriotism can often run rampant in American sports betting. Your weasel of a friend may have been in the corner tying the Soviet moneyline into some parlays, but the rest of the party would have taken a shot on the American moneyline (though sadly the game was shown on tape delay in the United States, so betting would have closed).
Considering the only option to bet on this game in America was with a local bookie, I’m guessing they would have shaded the lines down a touch, depending on their risk aversion.
Closing Line
Soviet Union -1600
United States +1000
Draw +1050
That gives us the same hold as the opening lines above.
awesome sporting moment. Those two teams play 10 times, Russia likely wins 9. They lost the one that mattered.
Russia is the most overated hockey nation in the world, not even fuckin' close. They have a population of 144 million people . Sweden : 10mill, Finland : 6 mill , Canada: 37 mill ; these 3 countries COMBINED population is not even half of Russia's. The last time Russia won an international event at which all teams used best-pro (NHL) players? 1981 @)
, THIRTY-NINE yrs ago. Russia hosted the Olympics in 2014 at Socchi, pros allowed to play , Fins sent a 'stacked' Russia team packing in the qtrs, lol
All those Olympic Gold medals in their resume? NOT ONE was played with countries allowed to use their best players (no NHLs, and for many yrs not even pros, had to be amateur, yet they were using their pros lol, 'state sponsered athletes' ) including the win in 2018 at S Korea
Russia is the most overated hockey nation in the world, not even fuckin' close. They have a population of 144 million people . Sweden : 10mill, Finland : 6 mill , Canada: 37 mill ; these 3 countries COMBINED population is not even half of Russia's. The last time Russia won an international event at which all teams used best-pro (NHL) players? 1981 @)
, THIRTY-NINE yrs ago. Russia hosted the Olympics in 2014 at Socchi, pros allowed to play , Fins sent a 'stacked' Russia team packing in the qtrs, lol All those Olympic Gold medals in their resume? NOT ONE was played with countries allowed to use their best players (no NHLs, and for many yrs not even pros, had to be amateur, yet they were using their pros lol, 'state sponsered athletes' ) including the win in 2018 at S Korea
the team was handpicked by Russia brain trust. Kinda like USA handpicking their best to form an Olympic Basketball team. The players dont necessarily play with each other during the year. Most of that team was composed of players from Dynamo Moscow and CSKA Moscow. The team had two kids that would ultimately become a part of Russia's all-time greatest players; fetisov, makarov. Both were just 21 yrs old. Fetisov is in the Hall of Fame.
yup, bizzare move. Pulled the best goalie on the planet at the time, wtf.
"The whole team was not happy when Tikhonov made the switch," forward Sergei Makarov
Tikhonov :
“The biggest mistake of my career. Tretiak always played better after he gave up a goal. The decision was a result of getting caught up in emotions. After Tretiak gave up the rebound and let in the soft goal by (Mark) Johnson, my blood was boiling. It was my worst mistake, my biggest regret.”
