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Thread: Coronavirus Stock Market buy off.

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  1. #1 Coronavirus Stock Market buy off. 
    RX Local RenoChazz's Avatar
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    I didn't see a thread about this so decided to start one. Is this an overreaction, with a correction coming soon? Or is this just the beginning. And how will it affect the presidential race? How will it affect the housing market, as interest rates drop?

    My personal thoughts is that it will correct, and the virus will start to naturally die off as we enter spring and summer. I also see a big correction could come if a vaccine comes along. It does have me a little unsettled after what happened today. We haven't had a week like this in a long time.

    I do see a lot of doom and gloomers predicting that this is just the beginning and saying to start buying gold. I'm disappointed that the MSM is trying to politicize this, but not surprised.
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  2. #2  
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    I have bought several thousand dollars of mutual funds which will be invested long term. I always buy when everyone is selling. Eventually a vaccine will be perfected and things will turnaround. I will continue to buy if the selloff continues.
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  3. #3  
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    Well you know that the stock market hates uncertainty.

    This virus has all the ingredients of the ultimate uncertainty. It doesn't present for weeks after infection; it has a high death rate per infection; they don't know how it spreads; and they don't have a cure. It is worldwide at this point. The source is a country that is traditionally unreliable when it comes to statistically reporting, and said country, China, has been slow to accept US or world Health Organization assistance in attacking the problem.

    We do know that many, many components of US widely used products are manufactured in China. Or South Korea which has been the second hardest hit. What I've not seen effectively measured is exactly what products we use here in America will be adversely affected by the interruption in the supply chain by the closing of Chinese factories which continues to be extended. I have read that virtually all of our antibiotics, and many, many other drugs used in America are now made in China. Heck, many of the masks and other disinfectant products needed if the virus takes hold here are themselves manufactured in China or So Korea.

    Uncertainty rules the day. Until at least some of these questions are answered I think we can expect even more market weakness. Heck, if consumption is reduced we could see layoffs. That will create a new layer of problems for the economy.

    This ain't good. We need definition in a lot of key areas before we can resume with reasonable expectations for worldwide health and worldwide economics and an upward market trajectory.
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  4. #4  
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    Overall I think the bull run of the stock market has been too long and a correction has been sitting there waiting to happen. I think the correction just needed something to start it.

    In terms will it affect things like the presidential race or housing market. I definitely think it will. One of Trumps big talking points has been the stock market. That is not going to play out well for him if things continue to tank. (the reality is he was taking credit for something he doesn't control going up or going down).

    In terms of the economy I view it this way. You have a gun loaded with 6 bullets in it. The economy was doing fine but the feds started shooting their bullets in the air for no reason. Although Trump was complaining rates were too high. It was stupid to cut rates. Now when we may need the bullets.....there aren't that many in the gun.

    Democrats will start hammering Trump for getting rid of the panademic agency.

    One other thing that will also hurt the economy is that by lower interest rate.....doesn't increase demand. If people are staying home and not buying or spending it doesn't matter what the fed rates are. Low interest rate will not increase demand.

    When 911 happened it seemed like for about 3 or 4 months US seemed to stop. Things like housing sale plummeted. Didnt matter the price. So a drop in housing prices wouldnt be a surprise.

    The low demand will cause the economy to slow. That could happen until the uncertainty ends like Michelangelo pointed out. The economy is like a huge ship.....it wont pick up speed over night once it slows down. A recession is highly probable.

    I have moved the majority of assets to a cash position and will probably move even more that direction. Wait until their is blood on the street to re-enter. The blood is just from a small cut right now.....waiting for an artery to see real blood.
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  5. #5  
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    I think it is a buying opportunity more than anything else.

    Gold is a poor choice, IMO ! it's not really needed very much, it pretty much just sits locked away in vaults, diamonds are BS also.


    I think this might well be an overreaction, at least I hope so. China kinda shutting down will definetly screw up US companies dependant on them for cheap parts and supplies.
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  6. #6  
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    Corona Virus is like a shark attack, hurricane, avalanche or innocent black kid shot by the police - it's not real - it's a sexy media story - and now it's all Trumps fault - meanwhile the death rate from those infected is 1% while flu is 0.025% - the symptoms are basically the same as the flu - I don't want Corona Virus but it's the fucken flu
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  7. #7  
    Never bet against America. HamGlaze's Avatar
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    Thought H1N1 was going to be the one that was going to get out of control and the media then was selling it like it was. Same thing here. Agree it will get boring to talk about and the media will move on.
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  8. #8  
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    I think the Media is using scare tactics for ratings and also the hopes of trashing the stock market to hurt trumps chances of getting re elected.
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  9. #9  
    The Great Govenor of California Railbird's Avatar
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    God is in control
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  10. #10  
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    Scum Lib's trying to take down Trump with this virus hysteria
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  11. #11  
    Rx God Doug's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Railbird View Post
    God is in control
    God is dead
    Friedrich Nietzsche
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  12. #12  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    I think it's an overreaction. There's been such an amazing run in recent years I believe people are just running with their gains, not wanting to give it all back.

    I believe it's an overreaction when considering health worldwide, but China is fucked and they're such a large player in business and at so many levels in so many ways, that concern about their performance is legitimate
    Living & loving life, despite the bumps. Always stay humble and kind.
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  13. #13  
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    The plunge protection team will do what they can to handle the equity market drop. Because of modern debt levels in so many different aspects of the economy, I'm not even sure you can have a true market collapse anymore. Probably will be some extraordinary measures to prevent it.

    It is a huge health issue because of how contagious it is w/o showing symptoms though IMO, media hysteria aside (just because people you can't stand politicize it or carnival bark with stupidity about it doesn't mean you should dismiss it), going to hit supply chains, travel, consumer spending. These are huge parts of the global economy.

    And I'd prefer to be wrong obviously.
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  14. #14  
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    such incredible divide, lol.... even a potential pandemic health scare is political fodder
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  15. #15  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    The flu kills between 12,000 and 61,000 Americans annually. The flu kills between 290,000 and 650,000 people worldwide annually

    The flu is just not news because it's old news, it doesn't scare us.

    We've had a few illnesses that caused unwarranted panic in recent years, until proven otherwise I'm sticking with media driven hyperbole. Ricboff mentioned politics, and unfortunately politics is part of the problem.

    As for me, I call this stuff an overreaction each and every time, regardless of who's POTUS and I laugh at everyone that makes this political. (no ricboff, I don't think you're making this political, I think you're accusing others of such)


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    Living & loving life, despite the bumps. Always stay humble and kind.
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  16. #16  
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    Doesn't need to wipe tons of people out to make an impact though. Just a minor change in behavior can really cause a lot of reverberations throughout an economy.

    The fed is likely cutting rates 50 basis points in 3 weeks, before this week it was 50% that it would cut 50 basis points for the entire year.

    Is that media hyperbole? No, it is a drastic policy reaction.
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  17. #17  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    What comes first? the chicken or the egg?

    Hyperbole can slow the economy too, just by making people stop doing what they're doing
    Living & loving life, despite the bumps. Always stay humble and kind.
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  18. #18  
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    Yeah, I said psychology is a huge aspect of this. Travel (older people most vulnerable to this stuff, obviously demo that spends a ton of $ on travel), supply chains, overall consumerism going into Spring/Summer season.

    Still 50 basis point cut is bringing the hammer and the thread is about the machinations of the market, not just the actual long-term legitimacy of the virus. I'm sure it'll subside eventually.

    Not saying it is the Black Death or anything but more important than 99% of the shit you see on TV.
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  19. #19  
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    And the flu doesn't scare us because we know who is contagious pretty fast. That's the messed up thing about this, is you don't even know who has it for like 2-3 weeks.

    I dunno, I'm not an alarmist I don't think (I hardly follow any MSM) but that is the aspect of it that is the most troublesome to me.
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  20. #20  
    RX Semi-God festeringZit's Avatar
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    I started buying in today. Hoping for a rebound next week.
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  21. #21  
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    look, fuckin cruise ships cant find a dock to let off people , lol. Too much unknown about the virus, unlike infleunza (which can certainly have nasty mutants). Uncertainty leads to fear. Health agencies have to be thorough/pro-active, they have a responisbility to the public-- would someone rather have the CDC down play it? They are making statements based on available information . And lets all hope that in 3 weeks time the virus isnt even being mentioned anymore, vanishes liek the others in the past..

    The good news is that in China case numbers are decreasing, NOT increasing. So their efforts r working.
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  22. #22  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny B View Post
    I have bought several thousand dollars of mutual funds which will be invested long term. I always buy when everyone is selling. Eventually a vaccine will be perfected and things will turnaround. I will continue to buy if the selloff continues.
    I think I've bought everyday this week
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  23. #23  
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    Quote Originally Posted by tanner12oz View Post
    I think I've bought everyday this week
    How is that working out?
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  24. #24  
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    There are two reasons that Covid-19 is such a threat. First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems. The data so far suggest that the virus has a case fatality risk around 1%; this rate would make it many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza, putting it somewhere between the 1957 influenza pandemic (0.6%) and the 1918 influenza pandemic (2%).

    Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill or even presymptomatic.3 That means Covid-19 will be much harder to contain than the Middle East respiratory syndrome or severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which were spread much less efficiently and only by symptomatic people. In fact, Covid-19 has already caused 10 times as many cases as SARS in a quarter of the time.

    -Bill Gates in New England Medical Journal


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  25. #25  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Star View Post
    How is that working out?
    Not very well..today was a winner though. I'm not playing for a day or a week. I buy and hold core position with nice dividends and if i have to average down I'm perfectly okay with that.
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