Betting On Baseball 2020 Season Thread

Kevy · Mar 3, 2020

Going to try and post here more often this upcoming Baseball Season.

Maybe a play of the day or a full card of plays. I'm debating on either
starting Bases on opening day or waiting until about three weeks in.
I have found pro's and con's to both.

I think this is going to be a really interesting season for both the books
and the players. Dont be surprised if you see some really odd lines or
totals on games the first 6 weeks. Adjustments will always be made sooner
rather than later by the Linesmakers as history has always shown us.

There is more information for ALL of us to work with and use than at any
time in the modern era of this industry for people on both sides of the
counter.

I mentioned in my Super Bowl pick thread that I personally no longer believe
in a bet being "Sharp" or "Square". Those two terms are a fallacy in present
day 2020. No such thing anymore in my opinion.

Looking forward to going to battle against the Books with you Guys this season.

Win Lose or Push. If we can not do something to help our fellow poster out, then
lets not do something to hurt them either. No need for feuds, beefs, and any of
that type of stuff.

Directing our energy at beating the books and not beating up one another is our goal.

Anyone want to share with me your thoughts or personal goals for this season go ahead.

Good Luck Good Health and Good Abundance this Season.

cleatstreet · Mar 3, 2020

Looking forward to the 2020 MLB season. Will be sharing my thoughts as we get closer to Opening Day. Cheers.

indiana · Mar 4, 2020

Kevy….always look forward to your thought's....BOL with all your upcoming baseball action...….indy

genosays · Mar 8, 2020

Do you wager on team win totals? Would be interested in your thoughts if so ... I like White Sox over 83.5 and believe it was KC over 64.5 and Mets under 86.5 believe it was ...

Michelangelo · Mar 8, 2020

Kevy said:
Going to try and post here more often this upcoming Baseball Season.

Maybe a play of the day or a full card of plays. I'm debating on either
starting Bases on opening day or waiting until about three weeks in.
I have found pro's and con's to both.

I think this is going to be a really interesting season for both the books
and the players. Dont be surprised if you see some really odd lines or
totals on games the first 6 weeks. Adjustments will always be made sooner
rather than later by the Linesmakers as history has always shown us.

There is more information for ALL of us to work with and use than at any
time in the modern era of this industry for people on both sides of the
counter.

I mentioned in my Super Bowl pick thread that I personally no longer believe
in a bet being "Sharp" or "Square". Those two terms are a fallacy in present
day 2020. No such thing anymore in my opinion.

Looking forward to going to battle against the Books with you Guys this season.

Win Lose or Push. If we can not do something to help our fellow poster out, then
lets not do something to hurt them either. No need for feuds, beefs, and any of
that type of stuff.

Directing our energy at beating the books and not beating up one another is our goal.

Anyone want to share with me your thoughts or personal goals for this season go ahead.

Good Luck Good Health and Good Abundance this Season.

Just want to second all you said especially the "sharps and squares" comment. I concur. Te internet and its vast resources has blurred the two.

Best of luck to you this season.

vivadart · Mar 10, 2020

Heard the spring training announcers talking about the balls being not as lively as last year. See how that plays out with totals.

Baronman · Apr 4, 2020

Kevy glad your still with us.

savage1 · Apr 4, 2020

ot-you know desperation/panic is setting in when MLB Network has to resort to showing the 2012 Home run Derby. lol

brewerfan003 · Apr 9, 2020

Kevy, good morning!

ive been busy with being a full time dad and full time teacher (as daycare has shut down and I’ve moved to teaching virtually as well)

I look forward to baseball coming back your plays/thoughts

lets hope we can get baseball back and that you’re well and healthy

cybersharp · Apr 11, 2020

Kevy said:
Going to try and post here more often this upcoming Baseball Season.

Maybe a play of the day or a full card of plays. I'm debating on either
starting Bases on opening day or waiting until about three weeks in.
I have found pro's and con's to both.

I think this is going to be a really interesting season for both the books
and the players. Dont be surprised if you see some really odd lines or
totals on games the first 6 weeks. Adjustments will always be made sooner
rather than later by the Linesmakers as history has always shown us.

There is more information for ALL of us to work with and use than at any
time in the modern era of this industry for people on both sides of the
counter.

I mentioned in my Super Bowl pick thread that I personally no longer believe
in a bet being "Sharp" or "Square". Those two terms are a fallacy in present
day 2020. No such thing anymore in my opinion.

Looking forward to going to battle against the Books with you Guys this season.

Win Lose or Push. If we can not do something to help our fellow poster out, then
lets not do something to hurt them either. No need for feuds, beefs, and any of
that type of stuff.

Directing our energy at beating the books and not beating up one another is our goal.

Anyone want to share with me your thoughts or personal goals for this season go ahead.

Good Luck Good Health and Good Abundance this Season.

I think I'll do the same thing this year; posting my MLB bets and tracking my won-lost record.
Hopefully I can continue the modest success I've had in the previous two seasons.

I bet EXCLUSIVELY on MLB Underdogs using Ken Osterman's recalculated moneyline method.
This method establishes an alternative moneyline based upon run differentials over the most
recent five games played -- I, however, use the last SEVEN games in computing the differential.
The entire theory is based upon the fact that MLB teams tend to play well (or not) in brief winning
or losing streaks. Identifying which underdogs are playing better than their reputation (or W-L
record) would suggest is the goal; obviously many other factors must be considered, therefore
the actual wagers might be placed upon as few as four to eight (or nine) games in each betting
bloc.

Teams are ONLY bet on at the conclusion of a "brand new" 7-game streak; with no overlap from
previous ones. Therefore I'll be betting on a new group of contests every 8-10 days, more or less.
Since MLB season might be shortened to barely 100 games this summer I may only have 15 - 16
groups of wagers, but I hope to win at least 45% and break even. We'll see....

Normally I don't bet this method until the third/fourth week of the season, but if MLB is severely
shortened this year (less than 120 games?) I'll begin almost immediately.

Wins2day · Apr 12, 2020

GL this season Kevy. I'm personally looking forward to the beginning of the season, hopefully sooner rather than later.

cybersharp · Apr 12, 2020

Has anyone else tried wagering on ROAD UNDERDOGS IN HIGH-TOTALS GAMES?
I intend to bet on such MLB games this summer in between the Osterman - method
action I described in post #10 above.

Such bets will be subject to the other limiting factors as well (no losing streaks of 3
games or more, yada yada etc.) but will be focused on contests where projected run
totals are 10.0 or greater.

I'll ALSO be posting these bets (and their results) in this thread this season. Hopefully
I can win at least 45% of these too.

...But has anyone ELSE had any experience with betting on these high-totals dogs?

cybersharp · Apr 14, 2020

MLB UNDERDOG BETTING: I'm a retired automotive-industry CAD designer, dabbling
in sports betting without losing my shirt. I've done alright in college basketball and
made SMALL profits (less than 10% over about 200 bets) the last two years in
baseball, using the method mentioned below. It's a system that focuses on Underdog
betting. A VERY simple algebraic formula is used to re-calculate a new moneyline and
is given in the book mentioned below. It ain't quantum physics -- it's a 90 page book
that can be read and easily understood in a day or two!

I bet EXCLUSIVELY on MLB Underdogs using Ken Osterman's recalculated moneyline
method. This method establishes an alternative moneyline based upon run differentials
over the most recent five games played -- I, however, use the last SEVEN games in
computing the differential.

The entire theory is based upon the fact that MLB teams tend to play well (or not) in
brief winning or losing streaks. Identifying which underdogs are playing better than
their reputation (or W-L record) would suggest is the goal; obviously many other factors
must be considered, therefore the actual wagers might be placed upon as few as four to
ten games in each betting bloc.

Other common considerations must also be incorporated into this model, such as
avoiding bets on any team that's lost three or more games. Or betting against any
team that's WON three or more straight. Or avoiding bets against top starting pitchers....
and so forth. You all know the drill.

Teams are ONLY bet on at the conclusion of a "brand new" 7-game streak; with no
overlap from previous ones. Therefore I'll be betting on a new group of contests every
8-10 days, more or less. Since MLB season might be shortened to barely 100 games
this summer I may only have 15 - 16 groups of wagers, but I hope to win at least 45%
and break even. Over the last two years I've won at a 48% - plus clip. We'll see if it
can continue.

I'll be posting my wagers every 8-10 days AND my W-L results a day later, assuming
MLB starts fairly soon. I wish anyone who tries this Good Luck!

Simply buy Osterman's book:

Betting On Major League Baseball: The Underdog Method

It's available on Amazon, Only about 95 pages and inexpensive. And this method
appears to work![SUB][SUP]<strike>
</strike>[/SUP][/SUB]

Kevy · Apr 15, 2020

Thank You Guys for the Good words.

Good Luck, Good Health, and Good Abundance to all you Guys.

savage1 · Apr 18, 2020

Here is an offshoot question to ponder with no right or wrong answer.

Would you rather have normal baseball return this year, ie. exactly the way it was before prior to the Virus with fans in the stands,

games played in the cities in the stadiums of the teams, etc. but WITHOUT any kind of gambling on the games allowed(sure it is theoretical

and hard difficult to swallow, but for purpose of the question accept it) OR baseball played with no fans and all games played in Arizona and/or

Florida, adjustment of rules,leagues, divisions, etc. where you could bet on these games?

To cut to the chase, the question is how much do you like baseball as a sport as opposed to liking it more because you can bet on it?

As baseball purist since 1952 even though I do bet on baseball on occasion as a diversion, my response without even thinking would be

to have the game back as it was intended without being able to wager on it.

cybersharp · Apr 20, 2020

^^^
My choice would be to have baseball return in the Arizona/Florida format, no fans,
and full betting options. That's because I consider Baseball to be slightly boring,
although I still appreciate a good pitchers' duel also. Betting simply makes it more
interesting.

savage1 · Apr 20, 2020

cybersharp said:
^^^
My choice would be to have baseball return in the Arizona/Florida format, no fans,
and full betting options. That's because I consider Baseball to be slightly boring,
although I still appreciate a good pitchers' duel also. Betting simply makes it more
interesting.

I respect your opinion, but for me it is the other way around.

I know most will disagree but as I said/implied above, I absolutely love baseball(and the Red Sox).

For me it is not boring at all because for example the "chess match" aspect of it and because there is no time limit on it like other sports.

If i didn't have at least some kind of a wager on the other sports(especially Professional ones, most notably the NBA), I probably wouldn't even

bother to watch them, unless of course if I flicked by some channels on say a Saturday or Sunday afternoon and stumbled on a game which was in

progress and seemed to be exciting/competitive or to try to watch it from the beginning if the game was important and looked like it might

be competitive.

I have a bit more interest in the playoffs for obvious reasons.

In all fairness, the fact that the only team in any sport which I care about and have always cared about is the Red Sox, is a big reason I feel as

I do.

Without that, then yeah, I probably would agree that baseball is a little boring, although I would still watch it to some extent because

I have always enjoyed watching it and playing it as a kid.

CoorsLight · Apr 21, 2020

I am with you Savage. I love Baseball (The Braves are my team), but for the average person I can see where it is boring. GL to all that play this year.

Kevy - Thank you for all you do for the site. Sorry to junk up your thread.

savage1 · Apr 21, 2020

Coors Light said:
I am with you Savage. I love Baseball (The Braves are my team), but for the average person I can see where it is boring. GL to all that play this year.

Kevy - Thank you for all you do for the site. Sorry to junk up your thread.

Coors-I would love to see a Sox and Atlanta WS someday although unlike the Braves, imo at this juncture the Sox are a number of years away from getting

there.

I obviously agree with what you say about it being boring to lots of folks.

Also I would probably get used to 2020 baseball if it ever gets started no matter where it is played and/or with no fans, etc., but somehow for me the season

would just seem tainted and I would feel cheated(for lack of a better word).

Kevy · Apr 27, 2020

Coors Light said:
I am with you Savage. I love Baseball (The Braves are my team), but for the average person I can see where it is boring. GL to all that play this year.

Kevy - Thank you for all you do for the site. Sorry to junk up your thread.

Thank You Sir for the good words. No need to apologize. We are in here talking Baseball.

Betting On Baseball 2020 Season Thread

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