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CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Future Bets - AL East
February 17, 2020
By Matt Blunt

2020 MLB American League East Best Bets

After dealing with the three National League divisions last week here, here, and here, it's time to flip over to the American League side of things this week. The American League is one where you arguably don't have the overall depth in a couple of divisions like the NL East and Central do, but by no means does that mean we should be handing over division crowns and season win total 'over' bets to the teams that dominated the AL a season ago.

American League East – Win Totals

Baltimore Orioles 56.5
Boston Red Sox 84.5
New York Yankees 101.5
Tampa Bay Rays 89.5
Toronto Blue Jays 75.5

American League East – Odds to Make Playoffs

Baltimore Orioles Yes (+4000) No (-20000)
Boston Red Sox Yes (+130) No (-150)
New York Yankees Yes (-1200) No ( +750)
Tampa Bay Rays Yes (+105) No (-125)
Toronto Blue Jays Yes (+800) No (-1400)

That being said, the one division where already crowning a champion is the AL East with the New York Yankees expected to run away with things. At least on paper, that's hard to disagree with, and with division odds in the 1/8 range, there is really no point in diving into AL East division winner odds much further. But there is plenty more value elsewhere in the division, so let's get right to it.

Season Win Total Best Bet #1

Baltimore Orioles Over 56.5

The Orioles are going to be far from a competitive team in terms of playoff contention this year, but that doesn't mean we can't project them to be a much improved team relative to expectations. After all this was a team that won 54 games a year ago despite being tied with the Cubs for the worst luck in all of baseball (-6) based on Pythagorean Wins, and went 0-10 SU at home against the Yankees for the entire year.

That latter stat isn't even the worst of it against New York, as Baltimore went 0-16 SU in their final 16 games against the Bronx Bombers, as bettors everywhere continued to go back to the well and lay heavy heavy juice with New York every time they shared a field with Baltimore. Even with the Yankees being projected to be as good as they should be, I highly doubt we see a repeat performance from the Orioles in the overall head-to-head rivalry, or go winless at home vs New York this season.

Grabbing a couple more wins over New York would easily go a long way in clearing this low win total for Baltimore, but this play is more about their league-worst luck – they were -8 in Pythagorean Wins in 2018 – eventually turning around, and them grabbing a few more wins within their division games where they were 24-52 SU a season ago.

On the field, Baltimore's got enough talent to expect 60+ wins from them, as names like Trey Mancini and Renato Nunez will once again be counted on to carry the run producing load. Around those guys they've got some sneaky good on-base guys that could help set the table for Baltimore at times, and as long as 1B Chris Davis sees less and less time on the field, the prospects for the Orioles season look that much better.

But it's the prospects of Alex Cobb and Kohl Stewart in the heart of their starting rotation that I believe will help push this Baltimore team well over this total, as those two guys are two of the names I do expect to out-perform expectations greatly. If those two guys can get the required help from the offense in days when they've got their best stuff going, Baltimore will win more often then this number is really giving them credit for.

Finally, we can't forget about the fact that since MLB went to it's current 15-team leagues back in 2012, there have been four teams – all AL teams – that have finished a campaign with fewer than 60 wins prior to last year. Those four teams were the 2013 Houston Astros (51 wins), the 2016 Minnesota Twins (59 wins), the 2018 Kansas City Royals (58 wins) and the 2018 Baltimore Orioles (47 wins).

In all four instances, each franchise improved their season win total by at least one game – KC went from 58 to 59 wins – with the other margins being +7, +19, and +26 wins the following year. This year's Orioles team needs to just improve by somewhere near the bottom end of that range – three games – and with all the negative luck they had a year ago as well, that's far from an unrealistic ask.

Yes, Baltimore is going to lose a lot of games this season again, but the worst of the worst is over in this rebuild for the franchise, and a 40% win rate (64ish games) has got to be the next goal that Orioles brass is hoping they shatter this season. They didn't have a winning record against any division rival a year ago and still got to 54 wins, which includes that disastrous run vs the Yankees. In fact, Baltimore didn't have a winning record against any team they played last year outside of going 4-3 SU against the LA Angels last year, and I doubt that stays the same this season. This Orioles team will get to 60 wins at least.

Season Win Total Best Bet #2

Boston Red Sox Over 84.5

The biggest move made this off-season came by the Boston Red Sox when they shipped out David Price and Mookie Betts to the LA Dodgers. It was a move that was clearly motivated by money as there is no other reason to trade an in-their-prime superstar like Betts other than money. It's a move that's not sat well with a huge portion of the baseball community, especially the baseball media, but that same group will chastise any team that's not fiscally responsible while not remaining competitive, and the last I looked, Boston's still got a team chalk full of talent and will be highly competitive again. Trading away Betts does not signal a 'tanking' move by Boston in any regard.

But that's how this trade has been shaped for the most part, as Boston's win total was sitting at 87.5 in mid-January before any of this went down. Having a great, generational talent is always going to be a plus for any team, but in baseball especially it does not equate to consistently winning. Just look at the Angels with Mike Trout. I applaud Boston for remaining competitive and wanting to be fiscally responsible for once. Baseball isn't like other sports where one great player can significantly change your prospects. It helps sure, but it's not the be all, end all.

For example, last year, Boston went 8-6 SU in games that Betts did not start and ended up with a +9 run differential overall in those games. It's not like they got nothing in return for him as Alex Verdugo is a highly talented outfielder as well, and Boston still has the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Badley Jr, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and JD Martinez in their lineup. Not to mention Michael Chavis showed flashes of brilliance at times last year, and while adding Kevin Pillar for depth in the outfield might not move the needle much offensively for this team, his ability to have a significant impact on defensive runs saved cannot be overlooked.

So yes, on the surface trading away a generational talent like Betts doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to many, but in reality, he was somewhat expendable. Boston's still got starter Chris Sale leading their rotation, a guy who's got nowhere to really go but up after last season's disastrous campaign, and the rest of the slated starting staff – Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Martin Perez – aren't exactly dead weight. They'll get plenty of runs support themselves from this still highly talented offense as it is.

Zigging when the majority are zagging will take you a long way in this business, and I still can't believe the scope of the negative overreaction the market has had to Boston's prospects this year based off of one trade. Heck, Boston went the contrarian route in trading Betts and that's something that's not hard to respect. Their path to success starts with winning more AL East games this season (35-41 SU in division play last year), a number that includes a a 5-14 SU record vs the Yankees.

With the Red Sox finishing the year with a -3 luck factor as well in the Pythagorean wins category, they just now need to play baseball with break even luck to surpass this year's new season win total. Remember, they had a winning record without Betts playing last year, and Chris Sale's year was uncharacteristically bad and done in August.

I just have a hard time not seeing this team win 90 or so games, as the perpetration and reality of this team is completely out of whack in the market right now. They may not end up winning the division, but they will compete for it for as long as they can, and with +130 odds to make the playoffs, it's not like a Wild Card berth is far-fetched for Boston this year. How many Wild Card teams get there with 84 or fewer wins?

[B]Player Prop Best Bet

Xander Bogaerts Over 156.5 hits[/B]

Bogaerts is another one of the young generational talents entering his prime that Boston had on their roster, and with Betts out of town, he's almost become the defacto face of the franchise now. He will be one to live up to those expectations as well, as it's not like he still doesn't have plenty of protection around him in Boston's lineup. Bogaerts will still get plenty of great pitches to hit, and after tagging 190 hits last season, this should be another year where he gets at least 160.

Bogaerts has only cleared this 156.5 number in three of his six full seasons at the MLB level, but one of them he finished right on 156, and he's always easily cleared this number when playing at least 150 games. He will have to continue to be a big part of Boston's success (or lackthereof) this year, and given my previous play in this piece, it's easy to see that I believe Bogaerts will be having another great year, and 160+ hits will be the driving force behind it.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

MLB 2020 Future Bets - American League Central Predictions
February 22, 2020
By Matt Blunt

2020 MLB American League Central Best Bets

The only division left after touching on the AL East and West divisions, is the Central, one where the Minnesota Twins are looking to repeat as champs. The Twins are the favorites at 10/11 odds to do just that, as they should once take advantage once again of what is probably the weakest division in all of baseball from top to bottom.

The Central still has two teams in Kansas City and Detroit that are still very early in the rebuilding stage of their program, and while the Chicago White Sox are a team many expect to see a big jump in terms of improvement this season, they are still in that “young core, learning how to win” stage of their rebuild. Meaning the White Sox probably aren't going to end up being as good as people may think, especially if they run into some bigger bumps in the road through the first couple of months.

So it's likely going to be a two-horse race between the Twins and Cleveland Indians again, that is if Cleveland doesn't go out and cut loose a star like Francisco Lindor. We will have to wait and see if that ends up being the case for Cleveland as well, but needless to say, prospects are looking solid for Minnesota Twins fans this year. But the Twins aren't first up on today's menu, as it's one of those rebuilding teams in this division that I do expect to take another step forward. That's where we'll start.

American League Central – Win Totals

Minnesota Twins 90.5
Cleveland Indians 84.5
Chicago White Sox 83.5
Kansas City Royals 64.5
Detroit Tigers 56.5

American League Central – Odds to Make Playoffs

Minnesota Twins Yes (-140) No (-120)
Cleveland Indians Yes (+170) No (-200)
Chicago White Sox Yes (+170) No (-200)
Kansas City Royals Yes (+2000) No (-10000)
Detroit Tigers Yes (+4000) No (-20000)

Season Win Total Best Bet:

Kansas City Over 64.5

Kansas City is a team that's got more offensive talent in my mind then they are getting credit for with this number, and as I said with regards to the Baltimore Orioles prospects in the AL East piece, sub-60 win teams usually improve just based on variance. It's hard to be a 100-loss team year in and year out, as the sport's length each year helps see even the worst teams win 40%+ of their games each year. KC finished with 59 wins a year ago with a -5 number beside their names in Pythagorean wins. A likely boost in that category should help the Royals cash this ticket, as even with some break-even luck, the Royals are essentially already at this number.

However, it's the return of Salvador Perez behind the dish this season that I believe will be the biggest boom for Kansas City this year, as his defensive ability is great, but it's his ability to call a game that will prove highly valuable for KC this season.

Perez was lost for the whole year last year and while the Royals weren't going to be a team that went anywhere in 2019 either, I don't think you can undersell Perez's overall importance on the field. Sure, Perez doesn't always get the desired execution from his pitching staff to win games, and that's going to be the case frequently again this year. Kansas City's pitching staff is far from one I'd put serious belief into, but Perez will be a huge plus in terms of helping them navigate through a game the best they can, while keeping everything in front of him as well. Should Perez remain healthy and catch the 130 or so games he is known to do, this Royals team should be well on their way to taking the next step.

Offensively, Perez can contribute at times, but a lineup that's got more power then it's getting credit for with the likes of Maikel Franco, Jorge Soler, and Hunter Dozier in the middle of the order. The Royals still have Alex Gordon plugged in somewhere around there, and the hitting machine that is Whit Merrifield will still be out there setting many a table for all of those guys. Finishing the 2019 season with the 2nd worst mark in the AL in terms of runs scored (691) was what KC wanted to see immediate improvement in for 2020, and with this lineup, that's something that they will be able to achieve.

With the rest of the division relatively weak overall – KC will win their fair share of games against a bad Detroit team, a still up-and-coming Chicago team, and a regressing Cleveland team – the Royals are in fine shape to threaten a 70-win campaign. 70 wins may end up being the Royals high watermark in 2020, but as long as they can stay relatively healthy and maybe get a bit of luck along the way, it's a number you should feel comfortable in them reaching.

Team Future Best Bet

Minnesota Twins to make the Playoffs: Yes (-140)

A play like this feels like a bit of a cop out in regards to not wanting to back the Twins to win the division, but that extra room for error where the Twins don't catch a division rival that catches fire for a large portion of the season is some nice wiggle room to have. If the Twins don't win this division, chances are they'll still have enough wins to be one of the two AL Wildcard teams, as the Twins will still collect plenty of wins against this weak division, relative to the other two divisions in the AL beating up on one another more.

To me, Minnesota's built like a better, more established version of the Royals. I say that meaning it will be Minnesota's offense that ultimately ends up being their strength this year, as the pitching staff still could have a few holes. But a projected starting rotation of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey and whomever is still going to service them quite well with the competition around them.

But adding a former MVP in Josh Donaldson was big, as he brings even more pop to a Twins team that mashed the ball last year. The 939 runs scored they had trailed only the New York Yankees (943) for best in all of baseball, and the core of that offense is basically still intact. Throw a guy like Donaldson on top of it all, and Minnesota will be putting up a lot of crooked numbers again.

As long as the Twins pitching can hold up for the long haul, the ability for them to go on winning streaks will always be there, as they just need a few comfortable wins over their lesser division rivals to get the confidence level up to a point where five and six-game win streaks become routine. As I said, the only was I don't see the Twins winning this division is if a team say like Chicago plays well over their heads for a prolonged period of time to build a lead in the standings that's tough to overcome. Chances of that happening aren't all that great, but it's still possible, and I'll take the extra security of having the potential of Minnesota being involved in the Wildcard game as worthy of paying 40 cents on the dollar.

Player Prop Best Bet

Jake Odorizzi Under 8.5 wins (-110)

As much as I do believe the Twins will be playoff bound again in 2020, I've got no problem fading one of their pitchers long-term this year. That's nothing too specific regarding Odorizzi and his stuff, but fading a guy off the type of career year Odorizzi had in 2019 is always going to be a situation I look to attack, and that's more in line with where this play falls.

Odorizzi made his first career All-Star game in 2019, had a career high in wins (15), and his second-lowest season ERA (3.51). Even with the division being as bad as it could be overall, I do expect Odorizzi to come back down to the level somewhat, as it's not like those same division rivals haven't improved at least somewhat.

Adding a proven guy who's been plenty involved with an organization that's done a lot of recent winning in former LA Dodger Kenta Maeda also takes some pressure off of the rest of this Twins pitching staff. While that can undoubtedly be seen as a good thing overall, in Odorizzi's case, it may actually be a necessary thing to help cover up some of his shortcomings this season. Remember, Minnesota's not likely to mash in as many runs as they did a year ago – Minnesota was 2nd in MLB with 5.73 runs per game and the entire Twins staff greatly benefited from that – and for a guy like Odorizzi who never pitched more than six innings since early May of 2019, some outings with earyl struggles won't be as likely to be bailed out by Minnesota's offense.

Minnesota's overall pitching staff is why I believe the cushion you get in taking them to make the playoffs over winning the division is a necessary one, and Odorizzi falling back a bit after a career year is a big reason why.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Future Bets - AL West
February 19, 2020
By Matt Blunt

2020 MLB American League West Best Bets

No better place to start a discussion on the AL West then with the elephant in the room regarding the Houston Astros cheating scandal and how teams/players will react when facing the Astros this year. But let's talk about that for a minute. Because not only does what they did affect their division and all of baseball, there is seemingly one new Astros rival from the AL East that everyone can't wait to see face Houston this year, and believes got the raw end of the deal and are righteous in all of this, but don't want to question their own recent methods.

New York Yankees fans, you may want to turn away now.

Don't get me wrong, what Houston did in the methods they used to cheat the game was disrespectful to the rest of the league, irresponsible, repulsive, and many other adjectives you want to throw in there. The Astros deserve every boo, every bean ball, every cleats up slide at 2nd, and every runner coming home plowing their catcher that they'll get this year, but what I don't get is how everyone is making the team they beat in 2017 and 2019 especially – the N.Y. Yankees - into complete victims here.

The Yankees went out and hired Carlos Beltran in December of 2018 – the acknowledged ring leader of Houston's 2017 cheating campaign – as a “special advisor” to New York for the 2019 season. The Yankees brass claims his role was minimal and all he was doing was dissecting video – of opposing team's pitchers no less - but what was Beltran's main tool of cheating in Houston again? Oh yeah, video.

You're telling me, a guy that was brought in to an organization to give “special advice” and analyzed video just sat on his thumbs in New York after getting away with what he did in Houston? We've even had guys come out and say they heard inklings about Houston's methods in 2017, and if that's the case, we can't just automatically assume no one on the Yankees had heard those inklings. They wanted their former player involved with them and their future success, and hired him in a video-related role for crying out loud. They wanted that same level of success in whatever way possible, and for one reason or another, fell just short again last year. How are we as baseball fans not questioning everything Beltran touched since 2017?

I mean, what about DJ LeMahieu, who is “disappointed” in what the Astros did. He spent seven years playing half his games at Coors Field, a well-known joke of a ballpark that is a hitter's paradise and a place where many a player has set career highs offensively just by wearing a Rockies uniform, and somehow, in LeMahieu's first season with the Yankees last year, he sets a career high in hits (197), HR's (26) and his career high in RBI's (102) was more than 50% higher than his previous career high (66). There is no way “special video advice” from Carlos Beltran could have had any involvement with that, right?

Yes, the Yankees were on the wrong end of things in 2017 and 2019, but to believe they don't have some dirt on their hands in all this is from being involved with Beltran in 2019 is just asinine. Any complaints from any of the players and/or coaching staff involved with the Yankees regarding what Houston did should carry absolutely zero weight, and quite frankly, other guys around the league should test the waters with some of those bean ball inquiries this season with the Yankees as well.

Maybe that's too cynical of an outlook for the game on the whole, but after all the discussion about whether or not the baseballs were juiced or not last year, this Houston Astros thing has really put the sport in shambles. It's just sad to see. Who knows, maybe that highly anticipated first series between Houston and New York will just end up with all 18 hitters getting beaned. One can only hope.

Anyways, that's enough discussion about the Yankees and the Astros as far as I'm concerned. It's why I didn't touch on any Yankees futures in the AL East piece, and why I'm not discussing any Astros futures either. Neither of them deserve the time, and I don't believe you can trust what we've seen from the Yankees in 2019 or the Astros since 2017 as legitimate, so why even acknowledge any of it.

So let's look at the futures market regarding the rest of the AL West.

American League West – Win Totals
Houston Astros 94.5
Los Angeles Angels 84.5
Oakland Athletics 88.5
Seattle Mariners 68.5
Texas Rangers 79.5

American League West – Odds to Make Playoffs
Houston Astros Yes (-300) No (+240)
Los Angeles Angels Yes (+210) No (-260)
Oakland Athletics Yes (+130) No (-150)
Seattle Mariners Yes (+2000) No (-10000)
Texas Rangers Yes (+600) No (-900)

Season Win Total Best Bet
Texas Rangers Over 79.5

The Texas Rangers get to open a brand new ballpark this year with Globe Life Field slated to be opened with the Rangers first home game of the year. Interestingly enough, the last two American League teams that opened new ball parks – Minnesota in 2010 and the NY Yankees in 2009 – saw their records spike by 7 and 14 wins respectively and win their respective divisions in their inaugural season in their new home. I can't go as far to say the Rangers will be AL West champs in 2020, but after Texas finished with a 78-84 SU record last year, they'd just need a minor spike of two wins in their new digs to surpass this year's win total mark. It's a number I expect them to hit.

On the field, the Rangers still have a batting lineup that has guys from 1-through-9 that can hit, and when they get going, they'll put a lot of crooked numbers up on guys. Adding 3B Todd Frazier to the fold this winter only lengthens an already potent lineup even more, and with a very nice blend of speed and power in their order, playing a lot of Rangers games 'over' the total may end up being quite profitable as well.

That leads into the Rangers pitching rotation, and despite bringing in Corey Kluber to be the #1 guy in that rotation, there still have to be some concerns about how good this Rangers staff will be. But we aren't needing them to be world beaters at this number, just simply be a .500 team. With Kluber, Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson projected as the guys at the top of the rotation, you can't discount their veteran experience in this league, and while they all do possess somewhat of 'journeymen' characteristics, you can't hang around in MLB as a journeyman without some level of sustained success.

Finally, the way this year's Texas team gets that 2+ win boost (outside of the new stadium boost) to cash this ticket is being just a shade better within the division – 33-43 SU last year vs AL West foes – but more importantly, be much better against the teams that are equal or worse then them outside of the division. Outside of having winning records against the Mariners and Angels within the division last year, of the 16 non-division teams Texas faced last year, they only finished with a winning (6)or break-even record (3) against nine of them, and three of those 'winners' were NL teams where Texas was lucky enough to win a single series 2-1. The other three came against who you'd expect them to be; Baltimore, Detroit and Kansas City.

If the Rangers can say win just one more series against an AL Central or AL East foe, they'll improve enough within the division – finished 6-13 SU against Houston and Oakland last year – to get those necessary wins to grab at least 80 this season. Yes, Texas did benefit from some luck last year (+3) to get to 78 wins, but they are a more talented team overall this season and should end up with at least a .500 mark.

Team Future Best Bet

Oakland A's to win the Division: (7/2)

Not sure there is a team poised to take more advantage of a likely step back from Houston this year then the Oakland A's are. Oakland continues to be that team with the moneyball mentality that continues to win year after year, and are likely desperate to make sure that they avoid the Wildcard game this year and actually get involved in a postseason series.

The A's overall roster is relatively unchanged from the 97-65 team they were a season ago, and as much as everyone loves to talk trades and free agency signings in today's sports world, there is something to be said for continuity. Oakland has the latter in spades this year, and their 97-65 SU record was no fluke; they were not helped or harm by any Pythagorean luck a season ago.

Even with the Astros still listed as the favorite in this division, Houston's win total is just 98.5 and if forced to make a play there it would be on the 'under.' That suggests that all things being equal for Oakland this year, the 97-win Oakland team from a year ago can get there as is, and who knows, maybe they take a big step up in their head-to-head meetings with Houston with no sign stealing going on. Oakland was 8-11 SU vs Houston a season ago and you'd have to rightfully assume they were on the wrong end of some shadiness in those 19 games.

The A's could take a step back within the division but their 44-32 SU record against division foes is nothing extremely out of the ordinary. What was for the Athletics was a 0-6 SU record vs Toronto and 1-3 SU record against the Giants. The Blue Jays are likely an improved bunch in 2020, but they aren't going to be sweeping the A's in the season series again, and the cross-town rivalry with the Giants in 2020 is likely to have different results as well.

If you do really want to capitalize on the anger/hatred coming Houston's way this season, backing Oakland at this futures price to win the division is probably the best way to go.

Player Prop Best Bet

Anthony Rendon Under 26.5 Home Runs

Rendon was the big signing for the L.A. Angels this year, but I'm still not convinced he'll put the Angels over the top in being anything more than a team that finishes somewhere around the .500 mark give or take a few games. You can't blame Rendon for going out and getting his massive contract after the 2019 season he had and what he did in helping Washington win the World Series, but you see it time and time again with these big dollar deals, guys just simply can't live up to the expectations all that money puts on them.

Furthermore, how much intrinsic motivation can Rendon actually have in 2020? He got paid, got to go to a team/city he wanted to, and got a World Series ring last year as well. It's not going to be hard for complacency to set in for Rendon this year, and his career year last year was the only time he's ever hit more than 25 HR's in a campaign. It's not like he didn't have ample protection in the batting order around him in Washington like he'll get in L.A. with Trout, Otani, Upton etc, and 2019 was basically a career year across the board for Rendon.

Just don't see him duplicating it a year later while he gets comfortable in new surroundings and a new league.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Future Bets - NL East
February 15, 2020
By Matt Blunt

2020 MLB National League East Best Bets

Pitchers and catchers are just days away from reporting to spring training, which means there is no better time then the present to really start to dive into the MLB futures market. There isn't nearly as much uncertainty in the free agency market as there was at this time of the year a season ago which always helps, and while completing trades is seemingly a challenge for some, for the most part the significant pieces of rosters are set this year.

National League East - Win Totals
Atlanta Braves 83.5
Miami Marlins 62.5
New York Mets 86.5
Philadelphia Phillies 85.5
Washington Nationals 90.5

National League East - Odds to Make Playoffs
Atlanta Braves Yes (+105) No (-125)
Miami Marlins Yes (+4000) No (-20000)
New York Mets Yes (+150) No (-180)
Philadelphia Phillies Yes (+170) No (-200)
Washington Nationals Yes (+105) No (-125)

While there is plenty to go through in terms of the entire MLB futures market, I'll be breaking it down by division and touching on a little bit of everything if it fits for that respective division. And there is no better place to start then where the reigning champions reside, so it's NL East plays up first.

Season Win Total Best Bet

New York Mets Over 86.5

The New York Mets have become a franchise known for perennial under-achieving and uncommon scenarios derailing their seasons in recent years, but I do believe all of that changes now that we are in to a new decade.

From a roster perspective, there is plenty to like with New York this season, as on paper at least, they've got one of the best starting rotations in baseball with a top six of deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, Wacha, Porcello and Matz. I mean, deGrom has won the Cy Young the last two years, Porcello is a former Cy Young winner himself, a full year of having a former All-Star like Stroman in the rotation can only help, and then you've got 'Thor' swinging his hammer around as well. There are many organizations in baseball that are going to end up being jealous of that starting rotation this year, but the key to the Mets success will be significant improvement from their biggest liability last year – the bullpen.

The Mets bullpen was one of the worst in baseball last year, and just based on the fickle nature of bullpens as it is, there really is nowhere to go but up for that Mets unit. It's not like they don't have the names that have had past success in those high leverage roles with Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Seth Lugo and the newly added Dellin Betances, they've just all got to put it together as a unit. Betances is coming back from injuries so that's a potential question mark, but if he's anywhere near the guy he was for the bulk of his tenure across town with the Yankees, that will be a huge improvement for the Mets alone.

Diaz and Familia fall into the “nowhere to go but up” idea, and while their performances last year may make it hard to believe an improvement could happen, their long-term track history does suggest otherwise. Pitching is always going to be the Mets biggest strength this year, and as long as the bullpen can carry their own weight and not consistently blow games late, the Mets should be a 90 win team.

Offensively, New York still has that nice blend of experience and youth sprinkled throughout their roster, and if guys like Yoenis Cespedes and Robinson Cano can produce like the big name stars they were when they came to this team, this Mets lineup should be fun to watch. Cespedes for one, just had his contract cut for this year by nearly $20 million (from $29.5 to $10 million) thanks to his injury issues in recent years, and with free agency looming for him this winter, there may not be a more motivated guy to produce on this team then him.

Even with some statistical drop offs for say Pete Alonso, the Mets have enough talent on the field overall to help pick up any of that kind of slack. They finished last year dead even in terms of Pythagorean W/L record at 86-76, and that includes all those blown leads late. Should the Mets get a little bit of positive luck this year, and/or just break even in extra inning games (7-9 SU in extra innings last year), getting to at least 87 wins shouldn't be a problem.

Team Future Best Bet

Atlanta Braves to make the playoffs: NO (-125)

As the two-time defending champions of this division, the Atlanta Braves have to come into 2020 feeling like they've built a very strong young core that's made for sustained success. Winning only breeds more winning as they say, and the Braves have learned how to do that over the past two seasons.

However, they haven't done it without plenty of luck, as they were the 2nd “luckiest” team in all of baseball last year in Pythagorean W/L record, out-producing their expected win/loss record of 91-71 by six total wins. Atlanta was also 3rd best in baseball in one-run games (28-16 SU), and went 11-6 SU when extra innings were needed. Teams can't run that well forever, and while they did add a big name like Marcel Ozuna to the outfield this winter, regression is likely coming.

Furthermore, when you look at the entire state of the NL East as a whole, the Mets, Phillies, and Nationals are all plenty capable of passing the Braves this year, as Atlanta's 46-30 SU record from a year ago is likely to regress as well. And really, given the way those four teams could beat up on each other within the division, it's no given that a second NL East team will earn a Wildcard berth either. I do believe there will be a new division champion crowned though, and no matter how the rest of the division shakes out, Atlanta will be on the outside looking in regarding October baseball this year.

Player Prop Best Bet

Noah Syndergaard Over 10.5 wins (-110)

Pitcher wins is a stat that holds much less significance in today's baseball world then they once did, but this number is far too low for Syndergaard this year, all things considered.

Yes, I get that he's only surpassed this total twice in five seasons with New York, which probably has a bit to do with the number being what it is, but I've already touched on the Mets bullpen likely being much better this season, and Syndergaard will be a big beneficiary of that. He's never been the guy to consistently go 7+ innings like deGrom has done for this team, so having his relievers close things down when he does leave ahead will go much further for Syndergaard over the long term.

Going further, Syndergaard is the guy that's kind of gotten lost in this Mets rotation this year with the new additions they've got (Porcello, Stroman) for the full campaign, and the dominant consistency deGrom always brings them at the top. Syndergaard being shipped out of town rumors and talks of his over reliance on who's catching him caused too many distractions for him late last year, and he still managed to finish the year with 10 wins.

Give him a little bit of that positive luck I mentioned before for the Mets this year, and some more held leads from the bullpen, and a 13+ game winner like New York got from him in 2018 and 2016 is what I project we see from 'Thor' in 2020.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Future Bets - NL Central
February 15, 2020
By Matt Blunt

2020 MLB National League Central Best Bets

Just like the NL East division, the NL Central is expected to be a wide open race between four of the five teams. The St Louis Cardinals (3/2 to win NL Central in 2020) – long been the model of consistency for winning in this division – enter 2020 as the defending division champs, but the Chicago Cubs (3/1), Cincinnati Reds (3/1) and Milwaukee Brewers (4/1) are expected to have plenty to say about that this season.

National League Central - Win Totals
Chicago Cubs 84.5
Cincinnati Reds 83.5
Milwaukee Brewers 82.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 72.5
St. Louis Cardinals 88.5

National League Central - Odds to Make Playoffs
Chicago Cubs Yes (+150) No (-180)
Cincinnati Reds Yes (+170) No (-200)
Milwaukee Brewers Yes (+190) No (-240)
Pittsburgh Pirates Yes (+800) No (-1400)
St. Louis Cardinals Yes (+120) No (-140)

And just like I did with the NL East division, it's time to take a look at a few various futures markets related to the NL Central this year, as I do believe there will be a new division champion crowned.

Season Win Total Best Bet #1

Milwaukee Brewers Under 82.5

Milwaukee has found a way to make the playoffs each of the past two seasons, and they've surpassed this win total number in three straight years as well. But last year was a step back from their great 2018 campaign, and while their 2019 record was a strong 89-73 SU, they were the luckiest team in baseball in terms of Pythagorean W/L record as they were +8 in the end. Luck like that just isn't sustainable, and 2020 is where this team is going to feel it as they aren't likely to get those types of bounces go their way again.

Milwaukee also had some key contributors that provided lineup depth like Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal leave town, but what I view as the biggest reason for seeing them slide this year is their starting rotation. A projected starting five of Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser, Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom, and Eric Lauer can hardly strike fear in any opponent this year. And while Milwaukee's bullpen has been a strength during these past few years for them, bullpens are so fickle as it is, that if they continue to count on those relievers to bring games home from the 5th inning on, eventually teams in that situation are going to get got.

Finally, in getting back to Milwaukee's fortunate luck last year, we can't leave out the fact that their 27-18 SU record in one-run games is going to be hard to repeat. Obviously some of those close victories are directly due to the great work of their bullpen guys like Josh Hader and company, but Hader started to slip as the season wore on last year – likely a high usage rate had something to do with that – and I just don't believe you can expect the same thing from that relief core this season.

Outside of the Pirates, every other division rival found a way to get at least a little better on paper this off-season, so Milwaukee's 45-31 SU record within the division is likely to take a hit as well. It's been two straight years of Milwaukee being rather lucky overall – they finished 2018 with a +5 Pythagorean number, but considering the 2018 MLB leader in that category – Seattle at +12 – ended up finishing in the bottom 3rd of the league with a -1 number in 2019, a flip like that for the Brewers in 2020 will have them finishing with a .500 record nothing but a pipe dream.

Season Win Total Best Bet #2

Chicago Cubs Over 84.5

The Cubs have been in the off-season news cycle a lot this winter because of the will they/won't they talk about trading 3B Kris Bryant, and as of now, it looks like they'll be starting the year with the disgruntled Bryant at 3B every day. How Bryant reacts remains to be seen, but he's still an upper echelon talent in the game today, and you've got to figure that once he's between those lines for nine innings each day, he'll aim to let that talent shine through. And if the Cubs do end up moving him, you know they are going to get some very good talent in return, so his status has very little effect on why I like the Cubs to perform well in 2020.

Instead, part of the reason I expect Chicago to be a great team this year is basically the exact opposite of what I see in the Brewers. Chicago's still got a very long and deep lineup offensively with the likes of Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, and Contreras being every day guys, and their projected starting five rotation – Lester, Darvish, Hendricks, Quintana, Chatwood – should strike some fear into opponents on a daily basis. And if closer Craig Kimbrel can stay healthy unlike in 2019, a full season of him shutting down games for the North Siders can likely only be a positive overall for this season win total play.

Not only does the Cubs roster have talent littered throughout it, but there should also be some added excitement in playing for new manager David Ross. Ross was a teammate to a lot of these Cubs players when he helped them win the World Series in 2016, so that respect level from the players end, and the ability to connect on numerous levels with the players on Ross' end is already there. It's hard not to figure that Joe Maddon's message and ways got a little stale and overdone with this team at the end of last year, so having a fresh face, and one that everyone in the organization already has experience with and respects is going to be a huge plus.

Finally, we can't forget about old Lady Luck potentially flipping over to the Cubs side in 2020, as their 2019 record was 84-78 SU despite a league-worst -6 in luck in relation to Pythagorean wins. All of that came on top of all the reports of drama etc in those final few months and it speaks to just how talented this team is when things are rolling. They break even in the luck department this year and 86-87 wins should be easily attainable, and if they end up on the positive side of things there, 90+ wins will be where this team finishes. Which leads me to...

Team Future Best Bet

Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central (+150)

This play is really just a continuation of that Cubs season win total 'over' bet, as if you believe the Cubs are going to at least threaten a 90-win campaign as I do, taking them to go a step further and win the NL Central at +150 odds is the next logical step.

Outside of all the positives I outlined for the Cubs this year, you can look around at the rest of the division and figure that +150 is more then a fair price to take a shot with the Cubs this year. Pittsburgh is going to be a bad team that ends up in the basement, the Brewers should take a significant step back as discussed earlier, and the Reds, for all their off-season hype about being a highly improved team and going for it in 2020, still have to prove it to the world. I'm not exactly ready to believe that a few solid additions will turn a theoretically 80-82 team from 2019 into division winners just yet.

Which leaves the Cubs and the Cardinals, and in that heated rivalry I've got no problem riding with Chicago over the course of the year. St Louis is likely still going to be counting on Adam Wainwright to go out and perform every fifth day, and he's been on his last legs in this league for some time now – especially on the road. It's not hard to convince me that if the division does indeed come down to these two organizations, it's going to essentially be a coin flip, and with the Cubs sitting at +150 in that scenario, I'll take my shot with them.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Future Bets - NL West
February 15, 2020
By Matt Blunt

2020 MLB National League West Best Bets

I've run through the other two National League divisions -- East and Central -- so all that's left is to head out west and look at the division that oddsmakers have basically already given the LA Dodgers. LA enters the year as 1/9 favorites to win their eighth straight division crown. Considering the Dodgers just acquired Mookie Betts and David Price from Boston to bolster an already loaded lineup, LA is definitely deserving of opening the year at this kind of price.

National League West - Win Totals
Arizona Diamondbacks 83.5
Colorado Rockies 74.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 98.5
San Diego Padres 82.5
San Francisco Giants 68.5

National League West - Odds to Make Playoffs
Arizona Diamondbacks (+160) No (-190)
Colorado Rockies Yes (+1000) No (-2000)
Los Angeles Dodgers Yes (-1200) No (+750)
San Diego Padres Yes (+190) No (-240)
San Francisco Giants Yes (+4000) No (-2000)

Tough to find a legit reason to bet against the Dodgers to win the division this year, but that's not the only future out there. We can look to capitalize on being correct in which division rivals may or may not threaten LA more times than not, so that's where I'll begin.

Season Win Total Best Bet

San Diego Padres Over 82.5

When the Padres landed Manny Machado in free agency last year, they were able to sell Machado on their 3-5 year plan on being a legit World Series contender in that span. They already had plenty of great young arms moving through their system and reaching the majors, and some of those guys had their coming out parties in 2019. How San Diego's young rotation holds up for an entire year with bigger expectations in 2020 remains to be seen, but even if that staff does take a minor step back, this team has a great mix of talent all over the field behind them.

The thing is, San Diego's brass were not wrong in their pitch to Machado in selling him on the future of this franchise, and even after a 70-92 season a year ago, they could be considered ahead of schedule. To reach that ultimate goal in that time span, the organization has to make sure they clear the necessary steps, and the major one this year is to finish with a winning record. SS Fernando Tatis Jr's arrival on the scene allowed expectations to be accelerated a bit with what he flashed on both sides of the diamond, and bringing in Jurickson Profar – a former highly touted minor league prospect in baseball – to team with Tatis up the middle could pay off with huge dividends. They've already got Machado and Eric Hosmer manning the corner infield positions, and the acquisition of a veteran guy who knows what it feels like to win in Tommy Pham should help further the Padres culture in that locker room this year.

Getting to .500 will start with playing much better within the division for the Padres, as a 31-45 record against NL West opponents was the worst in the division. But even with the Dodgers being even better on paper then they were a year ago in their great year, San Francisco is much worse, Colorado could end up selling their starts if they don't overachieve relative to their projections, and Arizona may have added Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte, but they've got a lot of questions offensively still. Remember, it was San Diego's pitching staff that was the key factor for the first four months of the year before everything fell off late – San Diego finished the year 9-21 SU in their last 30 games.

If that pitching staff ends up taking another step forward, and the rest of this roster does as well, then this will be that year that the Padres do take that next step and finish the year with a winning record, likely in the mid-to-high 80's in wins. Split the season series with the loaded Dodgers and maybe even the longshot dream of competing for a division crown this season becomes more of a reality then seems possible right now.

That's too far fetched to consider taking a shot with the Padres division odds in the 10/1 range now, but expecting a big improvement from San Diego isn't. This is a team that does finish the year multiple games over the .500 mark.

Team Future Best Bet

Arizona Diamondbacks to make the playoffs: NO (-190)

The other team that's projected to be the biggest threat to the Dodgers in this division are the Arizona Diamondbacks. The word 'threat' can be used lightly there as chances are the Dodgers do ultimately cruise to another division crown, but Arizona is still projected to be better than San Diego this year – in terms of season win total odds and making the playoffs odds, and I just don't see it.

Yes, Starling Marte and Madison Bumgarner are two big name additions to this D-Backs squad, but Bumgarner is only going to impact things every fifth day as it is, and it's not like he's been the world beater in recent years that he was for the Giants during those World Series years. There isn't much else past him in the starting rotation in my view, and relying on the Marte brothers to carry the load offensively is a bit much. They are great secondary weapons offensively in my view, not necessarily the ones you need to count on all the time.

It's this Arizona offense that really presents a lot of question marks for me, and playing in the ball park that they do, that's got to be a big concern. There is plenty plenty of space in that outfield and this does appear to be a lineup that's more suited to beat up on teams with double after double, but it's also got the look and feel of those San Francisco Giants teams Bumgarner was recently a part of where there will be long stretches of games where they struggle to do much offensively.

And then in terms of this being a miss the playoffs bet, you've got to look at the rest of the National League as a whole. It's not hard to argue that the two Wildcard teams are likely to come from the NL East and NL Central given the races we are likely to have there. There is just next to nothing in terms of wiggle room for Arizona, and it's a price that I would have made 30-40 cents higher to be honest. Anything under -200 for Arizona missing out on the playoffs is chalk I've got no problem laying.

Player Prop Best Bet

Trevor Story Over 32.5 Home Runs

Story's proven to be a workhorse in his three seasons starting the year in the majors and that's always something to keep in mind with these season long props. 33 or more HR's is a bit of an ask for a guy that may miss significant time, and Story has not shown in his career that he is someone that succumbs to his body. 145+ games in each of the past three years proves that.

The last two seasons we've seen Story eclipse this total with 37 HR's in 2018, and 35 HR's a year ago. It's always an advantage playing half your games at Coors Field, and Story will likely take full advantage of it again this year. Last year he had 24 of his 35 HR's at home, and although there were just 11 hit as a visitor, that's probably all he'll need to do again in 2020 to cash this bet.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

2020 American League MVP Betting Odds
February 26, 2020
By Rock Westfall

Trout Opens as Huge Chalk for AL 2020 MVP Odds

Considering the fact that Mike Trout has won three American League Most Valuable Player Awards as a member of the Los Angeles Angels, including last year, it is no surprise that he is a prohibitive favorite to do it again for 2020. Add to the fact that Joe Maddon’s arrival as Halos manager, combined with the uncertain status of their AL West rival Houston Astros, there are sizable gambling expectations of a big year at the Big A.

Of course, it’s also no surprise that Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres of the Yankees are also top tier chalks for AL MVP. Shohei Ohtani is also riding the Angels wave while Houston’s Alex Bregman may be an under the radar quality pick. Francisco Lindor could spark a comeback season in Cleveland, but Matt Chapman of the A’s may prove to be the ultimate hidden gem.

Let’s take a look at the 2020 AL MVP favorites.
2020 American League Most Valuable Player Betting Odds at DraftKings:

Mike Trout +100
Aaron Judge +1200
Gleyber Torres +1200
Francisco Lindor +1600
Alex Bregman +1600
Shohei Ohtani +1800
DJ LeMahieu +2500
Matt Chapman +2500
Anthony Rendon +3000

2020 American League Most Valuable Player Odds Overview
As is usually the case the betting line is set based off the combination of last year’s results along with preseason projections that are largely based on that. Mike Trout epitomizes that phenomenon. While Trout is still a bona fide threat for his fourth AL MVP award, he offers no betting value at all especially compared to other top candidates. Mike Trout One factor in Trout’s favor is the likelihood of an Angels renaissance in the American League West. If LA contends or wins the division and Trout maintains current production he will certainly be in the conversation.

Aaron Judge
Yes, Judge was the winner of the 2017 AL Rookie of the Year award and the New York Yankees are big favorites to win it all, but he wasn’t able to complete a full season in the two years that followed. The right fielder has some things yet to prove relative to his expensive price tag.

Gleyber Torres
The Yankee shortstop has been named an AL All-Star in back to back seasons and produced impressive 2019 numbers of 96 runs, 26 doubles, 38 home runs, 90 runs batted in, .535 slugging percentage and .871 OPS. In just his third season he figures to bring more upside.

Shohei Ohtani
The Angels DH was 2018 AL Rookie of the Year but dipped a bit in 2019. Still he could be a key component for the Angels if they are to have the big year. Ohtani is slated to hit in the third position but lacks the numbers that other big-time candidates bring to the board.

Francisco Lindor
For handicappers thinking that the Cleveland Indians can bounce back after missing the playoffs last year shortstop Francisco Lindor could be worth serious consideration. Lindor has been named an AL All-Star for the last four seasons and has two Gold Gloves, including from 2019. He also posted impressive numbers of 101 runs, 40 doubles, 32 home runs, 74 runs batted in, .284 average, .518 slugging percentage, and .854 OPS last year.

Alex Bregman
When you get past all of the moralizing and virtue signaling pontification about the Astros, the fact remains that they have the best material in the AL West and Alex Bregman headlines it all. The Houston third baseman is coming off consecutive AL All-Star campaigns. Last year Bregman totaled 122 runs, 37 doubles, 41 home runs, 112 runs batted in, .296 average, .527 slugging percentage and 1.015 OPS.

Matt Chapman
A’s third baseman Matt Chapman is where those wanting a great price combined with proven ability may end up. Oakland is coming off consecutive wild card berths and could well win the AL West if Houston indeed slips. Chapman is a 2019 All-Star that has won back to back Gold Gloves. Last year he totaled 102 runs, 36 doubles, 36 home runs, 91 runs batted in, .506 slugging percentage and .848 OPS. At age 26 and entering his fourth season the best may yet be to come.
2020 American League Most Valuable Player Selection Summary
When considering all that goes into the MVP award and the price tag on each player Matt Chapman makes the most sense.

2020 American League Most Valuable Player Free Pick: Matt Chapman

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

2020 National League MVP Betting Odds
February 26, 2020
By Rock Westfall

Mookie Gets Most Betts for NL 2020 MVP Odds

The arrival of Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers has served to add to the already hefty price tag for anything connected to this most public of MLB franchises. The Dodgers have won seven consecutive NL West Division titles and have played in two of the last three World Series.

LA won 104 games in 2017 and 106 in 2019. They were already heavy co-favorites with the New York Yankees to win the 2020 Fall Classic before Betts arrived via a trade with Boston, which only adds to the hysteria. In fact, he quickly emerged as the favorite to win the 2020 NL MVP Award. However better values are likely to be found elsewhere.

2020 National League Most Valuable Player Betting Odds at DraftKings:

Mookie Betts +350
Ronald Acuna Jr +400
Christian Yelich +700
Cody Bellinger +900
Juan Soto +1000
Fernando Tatis Jr +1000
Nolan Arenado +1400
Bryce Harper +1400
Javy Baez +2500

2020 National League Most Valuable Player Odds Overview

Mookie Betts could certainly win the 2020 NL MVP Award but he is overpriced. There has long been plenty of Dodgers public wagering money in Vegas that often drives LA’s value into the ground. Meanwhile Ronald Acuna Jr. has emerged as one of the National League’s rising superstars with considerable upside and Christian Yelich is fresh on everyone’s mind as 2018 NL MVP. So too is last year’s winner Cody Bellinger, also of the Dodgers. Bryce Harper has seen quite a drop after serving as the public sugar rush bet for this award one year ago.

Mookie Betts
First, it must be remembered that Betts won the 2018 American League MVP award with the Boston Red Sox and is a legitimate, though very expensive, favorite. Also factoring into the equation is that last year Betts had a significant drop in production from 2018, which was far and away a career season for him. Add in a new league and division of pitchers for Betts to learn, and a repeat of 2018 is doubtful.

Ronald Acuna Jr.
Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna Jr. is a player to watch. The 2018 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 All-Star could bring more growth in 2020. Last year he compiled 127 runs, 41 home runs, 101 runs batted in, a .532 slugging percentage with an OPS of .883. The Braves are favored to again win the NL East and he will likely be in the hunt all season.

Christian Yelich
Part of being an MVP is the effect a player has on his team. And it’s hard to conceive of a more valuable asset than Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers. Yelich is coming off back-to-back All-Star seasons and hit a career high 44 home runs despite missing 32 games in 2019.

Fernando Tatis Jr.
Bargain hunters looking for a sleeper may consider Tatis. The 22-year-old immediately garnered attention with the San Diego Padres as he scored 61 runs with 22 home runs and 53 runs batted in while playing in just 84 games as a rookie shortstop. This is an obvious bet the come play on an unproven but prosing player that plays for a perpetual losing franchise.

Cody Bellinger
Albert Pujols was the last man to repeat as NL MVP in 2009 so Bellinger is already facing long odds. He is also carrying the high price tag of being 2019 NL MVP and playing for the Dodgers. Last year Bellinger exploded for far and away his best year. Regression is a reasonable possibility.

Juan Soto
In just his first full season as a regular for the Washington Nationals Soto rode the wave to the Nats surprise World Series championship with very good, but hardly MVP type numbers.

Nolan Arenado
Arenado is another sleeper with five consecutive years as a National League All-Star and seven straight Gold Gloves. Further, Arenado is coming off a stellar season of 102 runs, 31 doubles, 41 home runs, 118 runs batted in, .315 average, .583 slugging percentage and .962 OPS. Counter to that is the fact of playing third base for a dreadful team, which hurts the MVP cause.

Bryce Harper
On the positive Harper is a classic beaten favorite that fell far short of expectations last year. However, the Phillies are not a top pick for a playoff spot and Harper is coming off an inconsistent 2019 campaign.
2020 National League Most Valuable Player Selection Summary
Ronald Acuna Jr. combines fantastic numbers, likely upside, and a quality team that is a pennant contender.

2020 National League Most Valuable Player Free Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Gerrit Cole - Pitching Props
February 17, 2020
By Rock Westfall

Gerrit Cole Prop Odds for 2020

When you take the combination of Gerrit Cole being a three-time All-Star who is coming off a 20-win season, the most strikeouts in the American League for 2019, and signing the biggest contract for a pitcher in major league history, he is going to draw a lot of attention. Add to the fact that Cole signed that $324 million deal with the New York Yankees and you get a level of hype that is over the top.

Cole’s arrival from the Houston Astros is seen by many as the final missing piece that will catapult the Bronx Bombers to their first World Series championship since 2009. Many gamblers are salivating at the possibilities Cole brings to the betting window.

However, many players post career seasons in their last year before free agency and then revert back to more normal numbers after getting the big payout.

Let’s examine some of the more popular props on Gerrit Cole for the 2020 campaign.

Odds provided by FanDuel (IN, NJ, PA & WV only)
Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+)
Gerrit Cole 2020 ERA Odds:
Over 2.90 -140, under 2.90 +100

On this one we have to take into account that Cole has pitched only two seasons in the American League with its designated hitter factor taken into account. Although it hasn’t seemed to matter as Cole has posted earned run averages of 2.88 in 2018 and 2.50 in 2019 with the American League Houston Astros. Previously with the National League Pittsburgh Pirates from 2013 through 2017 Cole’s best-earned run average was 2.60. In every other season he was at 3.22 or higher. The only concern is that Cole is coming off a career season. That being said the underdog price of under 2.90 is worth a flier.

Gerrit Cole 2020 Strikeout Odds:
Over 290 +100, Under 290 -140

Only once in his seven-season career has Cole gone over the posted strikeout total of 290. That was of course last year when he struck out 326 batter in a career high of 212.1 innings pitched. Cole will turn 30 in September and has no record of sustaining last year’s total. Under is the understandable chalk on this one.

Gerrit Cole 2020 Win Totals:
Over 15 -120, Under 15 -120

In his two seasons with the Astros, Cole posted win totals of 15 in 2018 and 20 in 2019. Only once in his five seasons at Pittsburgh did he go over the win total of 12 when he won 19 games in 2015. As a Yankee, Cole stands a strong chance of going over the total. First, he will be playing for a World Series favorite that has won 100 or more games the past two seasons. Second, he has arguably the best closer in the game finishing things up for him in the person of Aroldis Chapman. Chapman posted 37 saves in 2019 as the Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year award winner. All told, this one stands a strong chance of going over the total of 15.

Gerrit Cole Wins 2020 AL Cy Young:
No -1000, Yes +500

Cole has never won the Cy Young Award and the +500 price is not a bad one to ponder. On the positive he will be in pinstripes and getting all of the hype that the New York media has to offer. On the negative he is coming off the best season of his career and will be adjusting to a new team and stadium.

Gerrit Cole to have a 15+ Strikeout Game:
-135

Certainly, this is a longshot as Cole posted only one 15-strikeout performance last year in the regular season and had only one in the season prior to that. But one game is all that it takes to win the bet. Still, it’s not likely that he gets it done. His career strikeouts per nine innings is 10.062.

Gerrit Cole to have a 20+ Strikeout Game:
+2000

Cole’s best strikeout performance in the regular season is 16, which he achieved in 2018. He has never come close to 20 or more strikeouts in a game.

Gerrit Cole to throw a No Hitter:
+2000

Cole is still in search of his first -no-no and this is always a long shot even for Hall of Fame hurlers.

Best Bet
Gerrit Cole to win 15 games

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Judge, Stanton likely to start on IL; Sale elbow hurting
March 3, 2020
By The Associated Press

Injured outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are likely to miss the New York Yankees' opener at Baltimore on March 26.

Judge is having more tests to determine the cause of soreness in the right pectoral area near his shoulder. Judge has not hit on the field since spring training started, and the right fielder felt discomfort Friday when he took batting practice for the second straight day in an indoor cage.

''He feels it more now in the pec,'' general manager Brian Cashman said Tuesday. ''It's moved down toward the pec. We're just trying to figure it out and determine what's bothering him. In the meantime, I can just tell you he is feeling better in the last 48 hours.''

Stanton strained his right calf on Feb. 26 during defensive drills. Cashman thinks Stanton will be back in April.

''For the time frame, obviously, we've got to get the healing component done for a Grade 1 strain and then rehab it,'' Cashman said. ''With arguably, what, 3 1/2 weeks to go before opening day I think we'd rather be safe than sorry.''

CHRIS SALE

Boston Red Sox ace Chris Sale has soreness in his pitching elbow and has undergone an MRI.

Manager Ron Roenicke said Sale felt the discomfort Monday morning, the day after his 18-pitch batting practice session. Team doctors reviewed the MRI results and sent them to Dr. James Andrews.

Sale's batting practice session Sunday was the first time he faced hitters since he gave up five runs over 6 2/3 innings in a win at Cleveland on Aug. 13. He went on the injured list with elbow inflammation, finishing 6-11 with a 4.40 ERA in 25 starts - his fewest wins and starts and highest ERA in a full season since 2012.

YANKEES 9, RED SOX 1

Masahiro Tanaka struck out five over three perfect innings in his second start, and DJ LeMahieu had a two-run single in a six-run first inning off Martin Perez. Gio Urshela hit his first home run, a solo shot. Five of the six runs off Perez were unearned. He allowed four hits and a walk, retiring two batters. Rafael Devers hit his second home run, among just two hits for the Red Sox.

CARDINALS 6, ASTROS 3

Paul Goldschmidt homered off Justin Verlander, who allowed three runs - two earned - three hits and a walk in 2 2/3 innings. Matt Wieters also homered for St. Louis. Dakota Hudson allowed one run and two hits in four innings.

NATIONALS 5, ORIOLES 3

Max Scherzer allowed two runs and five hits over 3 1/3 innings with five strikeouts in his second start. Andrew Stevenson and Howie Kendrick had RBI singles, Juan Soto hit a two-run double and Asdrubal Cabrera added a sacrifice fly in a five-run fifth inning. Pedro Severino had an RBI triple, Mason Williams singled in a run and Chris Davis had a sacrifice fly for Baltimore, giving him seven RBIs in six games.

MARLINS 6, METS 1

Noah Syndergaard gave up three runs - two earned - and two in five innings with five strikeouts. Garret Cooper had a solo home run and Chad Wallach, the son of former MLB player Tim Wallach, added an RBI single off Syndergaard. Jeff McNeil led off the Mets' first inning with his first home run. Jordan Yamamoto yielded pone run and four hits in three innings.

RAYS 5, BRAVES 2

Brandon Lowe singled and walked twice. Austin Riley hit a two-run homer for Atlanta and Ronald Acuna Jr.. went 0-for-3, dropping his average to .105. Ozzie Albies had two hits and is hitting .444 in 18 at-bats.

TWINS 5, TIGERS 1

Marwin Gonzalez hit his first home run and had a two-run double, and Miguel Sano hit his first homer. Randy Dobnak, in line for the fifth spot in the rotation, allowed one hit in three shutout innings. Closer Taylor Rogers struck out two in a scoreless inning. Kody Clemens, a son of Roger Clemens, hit his first homer for Detroit.

ANGELS 11, INDIANS 7

Michael Hermosillo had a three-run homer and RBI single for the Angels. Andrew Heaney allowed two runs and three hits in three innings. Cleveland's Franmil Reyes hit his third home run. Cesar Hernandez also hit a two-run homer and Carlos Santana had a solo shot. Carlos Carrasco allowed two runs and three hits over two innings in his first start.

RANGERS 6, GIANTS 5

Wilmer Flores hit his first home run and Buster Posey added an RBI single for San Francisco. Logan Webb, in line for the fifth spot in the rotation, allowed one run and three hits in 2 1/3 innings. Texas started Jordan Lyles yielded three runs and three hits in three innings. Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit his third home run. Joey Gallo went 0 for 3 with two strikeouts and is hitting .188.

CUBS 10, ROCKIES 10

Nolan Arenado hit his second home run, a two-run drive. Ian Happ led off the game with a home run and added an RBI single. Willson Contreras had a two-run single for Chicago. Carlos Quintana gave up three runs and in two innings.

PADRES 9, BREWERS 0

Garrett Richards, who struggled in three September starts last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery in July 2018, allowed one hit over two scoreless innings in his first spring training start. Abraham Almonte hit a grand slam in a seven-run third inning and Trent Grisham had two hits. Milwaukee starter Shelby Miller walked two with three strikeouts in two scoreless innings. Logan Morrison had the Brewers' only hit.

ATHLETICS 6, WHITE SOX 5

Top five prospect Jorge Mateo had three singles, stole his third base and drove in two runs. Ryan Goins had a two-run single. Nicky Delmonico singled and hit his first home run for Chicago. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez allowed one run, three hits and three walks in three innings.

ROYALS 6, DIAMONDBACKS 4

New third baseman Maikel Franco went 3 for 3 with a home run and four RBIs for Kansas City. Trevor Rosenthal struck out three in a scoreless inning of relief. Salvador Perez was 0 for 4 as the designated hitter.

Arizona starter Luke Weaver allowed two runs and two hits with three strikeouts and two walks in 1 1/3 innings. Kole Calhoun homered off Greg Holland.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

White Sox think CF Robert is headed for stardom
March 3, 2020
By The Associated Press

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) Luis Robert's first spring training homer looked like a drive into the gap - right before it flew over the wall in left-center. And the Cuban slugger made it look so easy.

Robert has the type of athleticism that stands out in any crowd. Even with the Chicago White Sox.

''Man, look at his body. His frame,'' shortstop Tim Anderson marveled. ''Man, he's different. He's built different.''

The chiseled Robert, listed at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds, is a major reason why the White Sox are talking playoffs this year despite a streak of seven consecutive losing seasons.

While he remains a work in progress, Robert - dubbed La Pantera by his teammates - has the type of game that raises expectations for whatever team he is on.

''Well, listen, his talent is without question,'' manager Rick Renteria said Tuesday. ''I think that him settling down and getting to understand big league pitching and things of that nature are going to be a big part of it. But his skill set is fantastic.''

Robert was pursued by a couple teams when he was a free agent coming out of Cuba in 2017, but he opted for a minor league contract with Chicago that included a $26 million signing bonus. The White Sox have a long history of successful Cuban players, helping their courtship of the outfielder.

After Robert broke out last year, batting .328 with 32 homers, 92 RBIs and 36 steals over three minor league stops, the White Sox rewarded him with a $50 million, six-year deal - before his big league debut.

''I already had a big contract, when I signed with this organization,'' Robert said through a translator. ''This one, it didn't affect me at all. I mean it didn't change my goal or my mindset, because I knew that this year I was going to have a chance to play in the majors. I didn't know when, but I was for sure going to have the chance to play in the majors this year.''

But the contract erased any messy questions about service time and free agency, clearing the way for Robert to take over in center field as soon as opening day.

The White Sox are doing whatever they can to make Robert's transition to the majors as easy as possible. His locker neighbors at spring training are countrymen Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada, and Eloy Jimenez - another young Latin outfielder - is situated near the trio.

Abreu helps look after the 22-year-old Robert, and Moncada and Jimenez know exactly what he is going through after recently making the transition from top prospect to the major league regular themselves.

''It's going to help me a lot because they already passed through this experience,'' Robert said. ''Eloy did it last year, Moncada did it a couple of years ago, and they know the challenges that I'm going to face and when I hit a wall, they're going to be there for me to let me know what I need to do in order to get over that tough wall and keep going.''

Playing ball might be the easiest part for Robert, who reached twice, stole a base and scored during Chicago's 6-5 exhibition loss to Oakland on Tuesday.

''I don't think that I need to work on something specifically,'' he said. ''I just need to take full advantage of my tools.''

The White Sox know there are going to be ups and downs with Robert, especially after going through some growing pains with Moncada and Jimenez. But they think Robert also is on his way to stardom - and dreaming about a more finished product.

''You know he's still young, so wait until he really gets it,'' Anderson said. ''When he really gets it - he's dangerous now, don't get me wrong - so when he really gets it, he's going to be really dangerous.''

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Padres counting on Pham to be 'heartbeat'
March 3, 2020
By The Associated Press

PEORIA, Ariz. (AP) Tommy Phamâ??s cleats clacked on the sidewalk as he jogged between on-field batting practice and hitting in the cage.

No walking until he returned to the San Diego Padres' clubhouse to get ready for Tuesdayâ??s game against the Milwaukee Brewers. Pham is all business at spring training as he works his way back to full strength from soreness in his side.

Pham has high expectations of himself, as do the Padres. New to the Padres after being traded from the Tampa Bay Rays in the offseason, Pham is ticketed for an everyday role in the San Diego outfield even though heâ??s been slowed by his injury.

â??Everything has to improve. My swing, itâ??s just working on some stuff to kind of make me a more consistent hitter,â?? Pham said.

Pham, a career .277 hitter who hit 21 home runs, drove in 68 runs and tied a career high with 25 stolen bases with the Rays last season, struck out three times in his spring debut for the Padres last Saturday. He went 1-for-3 with an RBI in his second game Sunday.

Pham is also coming off an elbow ligament injury from last season that has him on a throwing program. He served as the designated hitter Tuesday, hoping heâ??s cleared soon to play in the outfield.

â??Defensively, I need to continue to work on my jumps, and throwing-wise, Iâ??m building back up my arm strength and my distance,â?? Pham said. â??Running-wise, it seems like you can run as much as you want in the offseason, then you come out here and put on cleats and run on grass and start cutting and everything, itâ??s just a different kind of shape.â??

Pham acknowledges he has a long way to go with a little over three weeks until opening day. With hustle and speed a big part of his game, Pham is working hard to be ready.

â??This game kind of rewards you for working hard and giving effort," he said. "I strongly believe in that.â??

Padres manager Jayce Tingler said heâ??s looking for Pham to be himself, which means being a disciplined hitter, swinging aggressively, running hard down the line when he puts the ball in play and being a threat on the bases.

Pham walked twice Tuesday, swiping his first base of the spring with a headfirst slide and scoring after going from first to third base on an error.

â??To be just part of the heartbeat that weâ??re looking for our lineup to be, one through eight,â?? Tingler said. â??Defensively, I expect him to get off the ball, have good jumps, go gap to gap. The reason I expect that is because thatâ??s who he is.â??

Pham is part of a veteran-laden Padres lineup, the new guy who turns 32 on March 8. He hit second in the order Tuesday, ahead of Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers and Brian Dozier.

â??Weâ??re trying to flip the page and turn the corner and start winning over here,â?? he said.

NOTE: Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. missed his third straight day of spring training with the flu. â??I donâ??t know when heâ??s going to be back. Itâ??s a sensitive deal,â?? Tingler said. â??Weâ??re making sure heâ??s taken care of and, at the same time, the bug is going around this complex.â?? .

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Cards' Andrew Miller loses feeling for pitches
March 3, 2020
By The Associated Press

JUPITER, Fla. (AP) Andrew Miller has lost control, and neither he nor the Cardinals know why.

The two-time All-Star and 2016 ALCS MVP with Cleveland will be sidelined for an undetermined amount of time as he tries to regain the feel for his pitches.

''The sensation I have throwing a baseball now just isn't consistent with what it is when I know I'm good,'' Miller said.

Miller struggles to describe the feeling he experiences when releasing the ball. It's not pain. There's no burning or tingling. It simply doesn't feel right.

Scheduled to pitch in relief on Monday, Miller cut short his warm-up after several tosses badly missed his target.

''I wasn't worried about hurting myself,'' Miller said. ''The stuff that's been bothering me and I've been trying to work through, it just wasn't getting better.''

That outing followed a wild Grapefruit League debut Friday during which Miller allowed one run in one inning while hitting two batters, including Tim Tebow.

Miller said the issue dates back to last season, his first with St. Louis, and contributed to his disappointing 5-6 record and 4.45 ERA. He's entering the final year of a two-year free agent contract worth $25 million, with a club option for 2021.

''There's not an incident or moment when something happened and you can really point to something,'' Miller said. ''Whatever it is, it's been gradual to get there.''

Miller said his arm and shoulder feel fine and aren't experiencing weakness. He spent Tuesday undergoing tests.

''In some ways it's good that there's no clear-cut pain,'' Miller said. ''In other ways it's frustrating because, what is it?''

Entering spring training, Miller was among a handful of relievers who could have emerged as the Cardinals' closer, but he seemed destined to reprise his setup role as a lefty capable of throwing multiple innings.

Miller's weary of trying to pitch through the issue without having any idea of the cause.

''Last year was a challenge,'' Miller said. ''Even before that, you keep waiting, you keep putting the work in and hoping you kind of pull through the fog and you can do what you expect from yourself. It's just been an incredible grind.''

The injury news is significantly better for Kwang Hyun Kim. Groin tightness prompted the offseason signee from Korea to skip Monday's scheduled start and throw a bullpen instead.

Kim emerged healthy from that session and is now scheduled to start one of the Cardinals' games on Thursday.

Manager Mike Shildt said the Cardinals aren't overly concerned about the split fingernail that forced Genesis Cabrera, Kim's replacement starter from Monday, from that game.

NOTES: Yairo Munoz is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his left hamstring Wednesday. Munoz felt a pop in the muscle while running out a ground ball during Saturday's game. He hasn't played since. Fellow utility fielder Brad Miller has been battling back tightness and hasn't played since Thursday but Shildt said Miller could return following Friday's off day.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Carrasco feeling strong, ready for new start with Indians
March 3, 2020
By The Associated Press

GOODYEAR, Ariz. (AP) In the midst of the spring training grind, the Angels-Indians game Tuesday provided an inspirational moment.

Carlos Carrasco made his first start for Cleveland since last May - before he was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia. He missed three months while undergoing treatment, but made good on his promise to return before the end of last season and pitched 15 innings in relief in September.

''It was emotional, just getting to this point. I feel happy,'' Carrasco said after pitching two innings in Arizona. ''I think everything's come out pretty good, I'm really excited to start again.''

He wasn't the only one who was happy about it.

''Awesome. Special,'' said Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor. ''It's a blessing to have him on the field.''

''He's been pitching for a long time and he knows what he needs to do to get ready,'' said Sandy Leon, who caught him on Tuesday.

Carrasco allowed three hits and two runs against a Los Angeles lineup highlighted by Mike Trout, but Carrasco threw mostly strikes and used all his pitches. His Cactus League debut was delayed a few days due to a strained right hip flexor but he reported no difficulties with that Tuesday.

''I actually thought he was pretty good,'' manager Terry Francona said.

Carrasco finished 2019 on a high note by just being able to pitch again. But his 6-7 record and 5.29 ERA, mostly before being sidelined, reflected the fatigue he felt before his diagnosis.

That's far in the past, especially after going out on the mound again.

''I feel great. Really strong. That's what I'm looking forward to the rest of the season,'' Carrasco said.

Francona said before the game that Carrasco looks normal to him. ''The hope would be that we could treat him like Carlos Carrasco and not have to worry about other things, that's the goal. His goal and our goal,'' he said.

In his return to action last year, Carrasco was greeted with a standing ovation, from fans and players alike, in a road game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

''Everybody cares about him,'' Francona said. ''We'd just like to see him put it all together because we think what's in there, he can be a pretty special pitcher.''

Carrasco was a reliable rotation pitcher for Cleveland before being sidelined last season. He averaged 15 wins and 180 innings per season with a 3.40 ERA from 2015 to 2018

''That's what I want. That's what I've been working for. This is a new year. Just trying to bring back 2016, '17, '18,'' he said.

While a spring start was nice, pitching again in Cleveland is what Carrasco is really looking forward to doing.

''It's going to be unbelievable,'' he said. ''I can't wait for that.''

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

AP Exclusive - Bryant ruling: Cubs did nothing 'nefarious'
March 3, 2020
By The Associated Press

Arbitrator Mark Irvings accepted Theo Epstein's rationale for delaying Kris Bryant's debut at the start of the 2015 season, concluding there was no proof of ''a nefarious motive'' by the Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations to delay the third baseman's eligibility for free agency.

In a 42-page decision obtained by The Associated Press, Irvings accepted Epstein's explanation that injuries to Mike Olt and Tommy La Stella prompted the timing of Bryant's call-up to the Cubs in April 2015. Had Bryant been brought up one day earlier, he would have been eligible for free agency after the 2020 season. Instead, he will be eligible after the 2021 season.

''The association could not satisfy its burden of proving that the Cubs' assignments of Bryant were done in bad faith to mask service time manipulation,'' Irvings wrote. ''Given this finding, there is no need to resolve, and this decision does not address, the global issue of whether clubs have the right to manage service time to delay a player's achievement of the service benchmarks for salary arbitration and free agent eligibility.''

Hearings were held last Oct. 21-23, with a final day on Nov. 6. Irvings issued his decision to the parties on Feb. 4, but it was not made public.

Now a three-time All-Star third baseman, Bryant hit .425 with nine homers in 40 at-bats during spring training in 2015. Hampered by a sore shoulder, he made three errors in eight games, a factor cited by Epstein as among the reasons for having Bryant start the season at Triple-A Iowa.

''The fact that Bryant amassed the worst fielding percentage of any third baseman in baseball during spring training cannot be ignored,'' Irvings wrote.

Olt started for the Cubs at third base on opening day and La Stella in the second game. La Stella strained an oblique muscle on April 10 and Olt was hit on his right wrist by a pitch the following day, then diagnosed with a fracture on April 15.

Bryant batted .321 with three homers in seven games at Iowa. The Cubs were off on April 16, and Bryant was brought up to make his debut against San Diego on April 17. If Bryant had been called up a day earlier, he would have had exactly six years of major league service - the time needed for free agency - by the end of the 2020 season.

Epstein said service time was a secondary consideration, Irvings said.

''The association was not able to produce memos, emails or texts from Epstein to show he had a nefarious motive at variance with his public comments,'' Irvings wrote, adding that ''unforeseen events had forced Epstein's hand.''

''He made a decision based on what he concluded were the acute needs of the major league team, even though it posed a risk to the development of his top prospect,'' Irvings added. ''The debatable wisdom of that decision cannot be the grounds for finding that Epstein lacked a basis in fact or reason for keeping Bryant with Iowa until April 17.''

The players' association has been critical of teams' actions that have delayed eligibility for salary arbitration and free agency. Union head Tony Clark has said the matter will be brought up in bargaining for the labor contract that follows the current deal, which expires in December 2021.

''Epstein's explanations cannot be discounted as pretextual or dishonest. While other baseball people could certainly have decided that Bryant should have been put on the opening day roster, Epstein had bases in both fact and reason for reaching a different conclusion,'' Irvings wrote.

''He had a philosophy of player development that he had followed at that point for 14 years as the person in ultimate control of baseball operations at two big-market baseball clubs,'' the decision said. ''The association was not able to produce a single example before or since of a first-year minor league player whom Epstein brought up in September or of a true rookie who started the season on the 25-player roster. The association is correct that Bryant's minor league and spring training numbers were exceptional, even unprecedented, but it cannot be said that consistent adherence to a philosophy that had proven successful is evidence of bad faith motivation.''

Selected by Chicago with the second overall pick on the 2013 amateur draft, Bryant was voted National League MVP in 2016 as the Cubs won the World Series for the first time since 1908. The 28-year-old agreed in January to an $18.6 million, one-year contract.

Attempting to show there had been service time manipulation, the union cited a Feb. 26, 2015, email from Cubs director of major league scouting Kyle Evans to general manager Jed Hoyer suggesting talks to trade outfielder Ryan Sweeney to Toronto early in the season as a way of clearing a roster spot for Bryant. It also cited a March 20 remark to Bryant by farm system director Jaron Madison about why Bryant was walking through the minor league side of the complex when he had not been assigned there ''yet,'' and a text from Evans to Epstein and Hoyer predicting Bryant would homer and made an ''unreal play'' in the outfield during an exhibition game ''just to be more of a pain.''

The union also referred to a slide made for Epstein's presentation to Cubs ownership on March 19, 2015, that indicated Bryant would be under club control through 2021. Irvings said the Epstein's presumptive position and was ''not evidence of deceit.''

''Epstein stated that a player's development and the acute needs of the major league club, not the impact on a player's service time accrual, dictated the timing of the initial call-up. He said there is too much uncertainty about future service time accrual to make decisions based on arbitration and free agent eligibility,'' Irvings wrote. ''Epstein testified that Bryant had not made the necessary defensive improvements during spring training that might have caused Epstein to go against his presumption that Bryant, like all other top prospect rookies in his 13 years as a general manager, would start the season in AAA.''

Chicago started the 2015 season 5-3 and finished 97-65, earning a wild-card berth. The Cubs advanced to the NL Championship Series before getting swept by the New York Mets.

''Ensuring Bryant's multiyear success was of much greater competitive benefit to the club than perhaps enhancing the chances of the team winning a few extra games at the beginning of the season,'' Irvings wrote. ''The fact that the team won five of their first eight games before Bryant was called up was a further indication that Epstein's calculation was a reasonable, and even in retrospect a successful, balancing of short and long term competitive goals.''

In a holding that could be cited in future grievances, Irvings ruled that ''while this award will not reach the broader issue of whether a club can base a roster decision solely on the desire to delay free agency, the concept of good faith and fair dealing is relevant for purposes of this narrower analysis.''

''The association has not proven that ... Epstein acted in bad faith,'' Irvings said. ''Repeatedly from the emergence of the Bryant as the top minor league prospect, Epstein articulated his belief that Bryant would presumptively start the 2015 season in AAA.''

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

Verlander says groin tightness no longer a concern
March 3, 2020
By The Associated Press

JUPITER, Fla. (AP) As far as Houston ace Justin Verlander is concerned, the groin tightness that has bothered him much of the spring is done with.

The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner made his spring debut Tuesday, surrendering three runs, two earned, during 2 2/3 innings of a 6-3 loss against St. Louis.

â??I think after today I can start to forget about wondering about my groin and just go about my routine and just worry about getting my pitch shape and deception where I want it,â?? Verlander said.

The groin issue prompted Verlander to throw a controlled two-inning live bullpen session last week in place of his scheduled start.

Slated to throw in the neighborhood of 50 pitches on Tuesday, Verlander threw 53, hitting 97 on the scoreboard radar gun.

â??I thought he was very good,â?? Houston manager Dusty Baker said. â??His first time out, his velocity was better than we expected and I think maybe better than he expected.â??

Verlander wasn't as pleased with the location of his pitches, particularly struggling with the command of his slider.

His desire to get a feel for that pitch ultimately drove his pitch count higher.

â??Got some counts where I could put some guys away with the slider and just wasn't executing very well,â?? Verlander said. â??And then you're like, let me throw that again and still didn't execute it.â??

Verlander did develop a better feel for the pitch as the game progressed, throwing two impressive sliders in a strikeout of Yadier Molina, the penultimate batter he faced. Verlander's third strikeout of the game would be his last one.

The final at-bat didn't go as well as Verlander would have hoped.

Realizing he was near the end of his outing, Verlander decided to really let loose, sending a handful of high-effort fastballs toward Paul Goldschmidt.

â??To a hitter of his caliber, you can't really do that.â?? Verlander said.

With the count full, Goldschmidt pounded Verlander's final pitch, a fastball high and away, over the center field wall for his second homer of the spring.

â??To be honest it was just kind of, OK, let's let some go a little bit,â?? Verlander said. â??Even though it was coming out good early I was still a little cognizant of it. There toward the end I didn't feel anything all game so it was like, â??OK let me trust this thing a little bit more and just throw the fastball and try to let it eat.â??"

NOTES: For the first time this spring, Baker had planned to create a lineup card indicative of what the Astros could show on opening day. Injuries and sickness prevented that from happening. Jose Altuve is battling an illness that Baker said has struck several other Astros. Baker told Altuve not to come to the park Tuesday. ... Outfielder Yordan Alvarez and catcher Martin Maldonado both had their names written into the original lineup card, but a sore knee prevented Alvarez from playing. A lingering sore thumb suffered on a foul tip kept Maldonado out of the lineup.

CNOTES · Mar 4, 2020

FOR ENTERTAINING PURPOSES ONLY

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 4

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at TB
TB -170
U 11.0

DET at BOS
DET +140
U 12.5

STL at NYM
NYM -110
O 8.0

CHC at CIN 03:05 PM
CIN -110
O 10.5

CHW at MIL 03:05 PM
CHW +120
O 10.0

COL at TEX 03:05 PM
COL +130
O 11.0

CLE at ARI 03:10 PM
ARI -140
U 10.0

SEA at LAA 03:10 PM
LAA -180
O 11.5

KC at SD 03:10 PM
SD -140
U 11.5

SF at LAD 08:05 PM
SF +165
U 10.0

CNOTES · Mar 6, 2020

FRIDAY, MARCH 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SF at MIL 03:05 PM
SF +100
O 10.0

CHW at CHC 03:05 PM
CHW -125
O 12.0

LAA at KC 03:05 PM
LAA +105

COL at ARI 03:10 PM
COL +100
O 11.0

NYM at HOU 06:05 PM
NYM +115
O 9.0

BAL at NYY 06:35 PM
O 10.0

WAS at MIA 07:05 PM
MIA -110
U 7.5

SEA at LAD 08:05 PM
O 10.0

TEX at SD 08:40 PM
TEX +100
O 11.0

CNOTES · Mar 6, 2020

Friday’s 6-pack
Odds to make the Final Four this season:
-$140— Kansas
-$110— Baylor, Gonzaga
+$150— Dayton
+$250— Duke, Kentucky
+$300— Louisville, Maryland
+$350— Florida State, Oregon

Quote of the Day:
“You might run a 4.3 [at the combine], but your tape says you’re 4.6. You might run a 4.6, but your tape says you’re 4.4. The tape don’t lie. The combine lies. You can fall in love at the combine and get your ass broke.”
Bruce Arians

Friday’s quiz
How many college basketball leagues have their conference tournament in Las Vegas?

Thursday’s quiz
Bruce Bochy was the San Diego Padres’ manager the last time they played in a World Series.

Wednesday’s quiz
John Calipari coached the Nets from 1996-99.

****************************************************************

Friday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a busy Thursday…….

13) From ESPN.com: Los Angeles Angels fired their longtime visiting clubhouse manager after an internal investigation confirmed suspicions that he was providing ball-doctoring substances to opposing pitchers. Brian Harkins had been with the Angels for 30 years, was providing illegal sticky substances in the visiting clubhouse that aided pitchers’ abilities to grip the baseball.

Trevor Bauer recently told Real Sports that 70% of pitchers use some sort of substance — be it pine tar or Firm Grip or a homemade concoction — to enhance their grip, which could ultimately provide greater movement and velocity.

Baseball has had a very rough offseason; they need real games to start. Soon.

12) Hal Mumme is a 67-year old football coach, the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Vipers in the XFL; 20 years ago, he was head coach at Kentucky. He is a tough guy.

Last weekend, Mumme was on the sidelines at the Houston-Dallas game when a RB ran out of bounds and knocked Mumme over- that happened in the second quarter. Mumme got up and coached the rest of the game. No big deal.

Turns out he broke his leg in the collision, so he stood there for more than half the game and called plays, with a freakin’ broken leg.

He’ll be coaching from the booth this week, when the Renegades play New York.

11) Terence Ross is in his 8th year in the NBA, his 4th with the Orlando Magic; he scored 35 points in 34:11 in the Magic’s 116-113 loss to Miami Wednesday.

What makes this unusual is the rest of Ross’ line score:
Zero rebounds, zero assists, zero steals, zero blocks, one turnover, two fouls.

It is really, really odd for a guy to score 35 points with no rebounds, no steals.

Ross is averaging 14.6 ppg in 27.2 mpg; he’s taken 738 shots, has 69 assists.

10) Utah State 75, New Mexico 70— Merrill scored 29 points to bail out the Aggies, who led by 13 early on, but then trailed 11 with 9:15 left. Utah State is barely on right side of the bubble, so this win was necessary. Winning tonight might be necessary, too.

9) Washington 90, Arizona State 83— Huskies get first Pac-12 road win this season, hand ASU a horrific home loss that could haunt them on Selection Sunday. Sun Devils lost their last three games, after a 7-game win streak.

8) San Diego State 73, Air Force 60— Aztecs are 29-1, but they’ve trailed at halftime in their last four games; they caught a break though, when UNLV got upset, so they won’t have to play the host team in Friday’s semifinal, they play Boise State instead.

7) Upsets:
— Wyoming (+10) 74, Nevada 71
— Lipscomb (+8) 73, North Florida 71
— Washington (+6) 90, Arizona State 83
— Alcorn State (+5.5) 80, Prairie View 71
— Bucknell (+5) 64, American 59
— UMKC (+3.5) 61, Utah Valley 59

6) Four of five teams in NL Central have season win totals of 82.5 or more wins, which is bad news for the Pittsburgh Pirates, the fifth team in the division, whose over/under is 69.5.

5) Pirates are projected to have the lowest Opening Day payroll in baseball, roughly $57M; the players union has filed grievances against the Pirates the last two years for not spending their revenue sharing money to increase their payroll. Go figure.

4) Late night TV is great this month, with replays of college hoop games and spring training games all night, every night. Baseball should show late night replays all season long.

3) Tim Duncan coached the San Antonio Spurs Tuesday, in their 104-103 win over Charlotte, subbing for an absent Gregg Popovich.

2) Chicago White Sox signed their young star, 2B Yoan Moncada, to a 5-year. $70M deal.

1) Coronavirus is a huge problem for the cruise ship industry; in mid-January, Royal Caribbean stock was $136/share; at the close of business Thursday, it was $65.78/share. Oy.