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Thread: Intersting thoughts

  1. #701  
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    Thanks Boz. I may add 5 to 10 shares and just sit on it and see what happens. It would be nice to see it go to where Amazon is right now! Does BABA pay dividends?
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  2. #702  
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    No dividends...

    Last night a put up two charts Amazon and apple then run through prices over the history of the companies ...Some of the dips are mind blowing early on and later too in the companies price histories (Apple lost quarter value over a few days of trading more than once and amazons chart is comical the first 5 years) ... BABA is a baby compared to APPL/ AMZ... BABA will be a one trillion dollar company soon enough then 2 trillion someplace down the line in 10 years .Losing the ANT IPO was crushing but in reality the cloud part of BABA will be as big as the payment arm. cloud is just becoming profitable for BABA and eventually the ANT IPO will come around again in 21 or 22 .Buying little chunks its the way to go... it's what I've been doing since I bought my first chunk ...I got crush on the 284's..placing 254's a few days later sucked but I do believe this is a great investment for a long hold.

    Enjoy the weekend hopefully you're at a track someplace warm.
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  3. #703  
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    Thanks Boz. I wish I hadn't sold those 265 shares I bought last week! I'll add a few shares and keep doing that (which is what I do w/ Apple) and plan to hold. Do you think if there's a downturn in the US market it will effect BABA?

    I'm sitting in Washington DC (actually, Arlington) watching college football....pining for the days I can move home (Florida). Hope you're having a great weekend!
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  4. #704  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    Thanks Boz. I wish I hadn't sold those 265 shares I bought last week! I'll add a few shares and keep doing that (which is what I do w/ Apple) and plan to hold. Do you think if there's a downturn in the US market it will effect BABA?

    I'm sitting in Washington DC (actually, Arlington) watching college football....pining for the days I can move home (Florida). Hope you're having a great weekend!

    Spent a good amount of time in Arlington/DC, Cleveland heights area... Florida looks good after DC winters..I know.
    We miss Pho 75... badly. We talk about that place all the time and how they can figure out who's bill is who's at the front counter.
    If you've never been it's be best PHO I've ever had outside of being in Asia.

    Lucky bastard...lol.

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    Phone: (703) 525-7355
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  5. #705  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozzie View Post
    Spent a good amount of time in Arlington/DC, Cleveland heights area... Florida looks good after DC winters..I know.
    We miss Pho 75... badly. We talk about that place all the time and how they can figure out who's bill is who's at the front counter.
    If you've never been it's be best PHO I've ever had outside of being in Asia.

    Lucky bastard...lol.

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    Located in: Colonial Village Shopping Center
    Address: 1721 Wilson Blvd, Arlington, VA 22209 Hours: Open ⋅ Closes 9PM
    Phone: (703) 525-7355
    I've been to Pho 75 several times. Great place in Rosslyn. I used to live in Ballston, then Clarendon, then bought the house I'm in in 2011. Did you ever go to Eden Center? It's a shopping center that is now all Asian food, markets, restaurants, etc. Some great Asian. It's in the Falls Church area. I have a friend that lived in Cleveland Heights, got robbed/mugged one night - they stole his cell phone, wallet, and car! They got arrested and he had to go to court over it, the two guys ended up getting 10 years. My buddy was in Georgetown med school at the time.
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  6. #706  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    I've been to Pho 75 several times. Great place in Rosslyn. I used to live in Ballston, then Clarendon, then bought the house I'm in in 2011. Did you ever go to Eden Center? It's a shopping center that is now all Asian food, markets, restaurants, etc. Some great Asian. It's in the Falls Church area. I have a friend that lived in Cleveland Heights, got robbed/mugged one night - they stole his cell phone, wallet, and car! They got arrested and he had to go to court over it, the two guys ended up getting 10 years. My buddy was in Georgetown med school at the time.

    We loved Eden...you saw DC change over the years pretty amazing the way DC turned.
    Cleveland Park and heights changed big time..We were off mass ave on Quebec st / near Sidwell School..Pretty funny the secret service sat in front of our house for years while the Obama girls were in school at Sidwell...Nice guys actually we chatted quite a lot over the years.

    I miss DC in some ways..It's a super well educated town but maybe the most expensive place I've ever lived...
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  7. #707  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    Thanks Boz. I wish I hadn't sold those 265 shares I bought last week! I'll add a few shares and keep doing that (which is what I do w/ Apple) and plan to hold. Do you think if there's a downturn in the US market it will effect BABA?

    I'm sitting in Washington DC (actually, Arlington) watching college football....pining for the days I can move home (Florida). Hope you're having a great weekend!

    If the US market shits the rest of the world has fallowed in the past...China had growth this year I'm not certain but it's one of the only countries that did.
    It wouldn't help BABA if the US has a big decline but the economy is growing in China plus Chinese consumers are just swinging in to the internet from what you read about BABA's penetration ..One great thing is BABA is focused on consumers at the brick and mortar level as well particularly in the under serviced 2nd and 3rd tear cities in china were the internet is less used....

    It's a great long term plan in China for gathering customers ..Think Walmart in this county but jacked up on the best Chinese roids.
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  8. #708  
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    Boz, I've been here over 12 years. Ready to move back to the sunshine state! But I do like it here. I work at the Treasury, and I'm hoping they're going to let me do full-time telework where I come in the office once a month, or every other month. I want to work another 4 to 6 years (I'm 50 now) before I retire. Getting back to DC 6 to 10 times a year would be nice, it's an easy flight from Tampa or Jacksonville. Since the China virus I don't go into the city often, usually just for work (I work in the office 5 days a pay period). The lockdowns in the city are pretty strict, plus the political climate makes it unsafe.

    I just added 10 shares of BABA - will plan to hold on long-term.
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  9. #709  
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    I get it my folks are in Naples, we cancelled or plans to go this Thanksgiving as my pop had a triple by pass less than a year ago and with Covid I wouldn't risk his health, major bummer as we love Naples.

    How cool...Man, working for the treasury must have be interesting..I love the old treasury building..
    I walked the Mall all the time, It was sorta like being on an adult field tip any time I was down there.
    The Bureau of engraving & printing tour is the best... I've been at least a dozen times over the years with friends, something about stacks of freshly printed notes excites everyone. Another thing I miss is the the Goat trails along the Potomac ... I even caught some fish just off the trail for fun.

    Great town.

    I have enough BABA for now and I'm behind the ball on two buys as of now...I do love the company though.
    Hang in there buddy till you can get to Florida..

    And Be well.
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  10. #710  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozzie View Post
    Originally Posted by Bozzie
    Worth watching...They are doing some far out science and the growth is impressive.

    Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST)
    62.51-0.53 (-0.84%)At close: September 11 4:00PM EDT


    crazy science,
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twist...120000866.html



    Twist ...Bought at 62..sold 1/2 at 90 bought back the half around 104.00 - 114 .00 today...

    I sorta wonder if this isn't a +300 dollar company in 2021?
    Scary point to buy right now, it's run has been unreal..DNA storage is hard to
    figure.. where and how much it works exactly, how much it is to produce who can produce it and is it propriety?..The storage capability is the one big seller ...case closed. I love this but so many questions the same questions I had when a sold at 90..but then forgot when I bought back.

    TWST is a head scratcher.....Still waiting on a Ginko IOP in 2021.
    beat earnings by .17...122.00 today up another 6%.

    Looking for a pull back...Please
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  11. #711  
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    BABA rowan capital report.


    On the drive if anyone is interested .

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...nqnT85NBf6-siF
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  12. #712  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozzie View Post
    BABA rowan capital report.


    On the drive if anyone is interested .

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...nqnT85NBf6-siF

    Just finished this..very good read.
    4th and 5th tier cities is interesting and it's being done firstly on the retail level.
    The growth potential is unreal /the cloud alone being x 10 at the very least.

    I didn't pay for this it's available on google as well.
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  13. #713  
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    This is huge and something I've been waiting on ..Imagine living in mainland China and not being able to invest in BABA only because it's traded of the Hang Seng markets. The CCP has controlled who's able to traded 'southbound' on the HS exchange. Both BABA and JD finally got included after being turned away twice for inclusion. This means retail investors on the mainland with be able to buy BABA and JD on the open market in Hong Kong for the first time ever....It'll be a massive inflow of capital announcement tomorrow.
    Forbes

    China Market Update: Alibaba, JD.com, And NetEase Rise On Southbound Stock Connect Inclusion

    Asian equities largely celebrated Janet Yellen leading the US Treasury, the beginning of Biden’s transition, and the positive vaccine progress, with Japan returning from its three-day weekend gaining +2%. The Hang Seng managed a small gain that masked a weaker day than the 50 stock index would indicate. The index was led higher by Hong Kong volume leader Alibaba BABA +3.6% Hong Kong, which rose +2.27% on a Mainland media report that Chief Executive of Hong Kong Carrie Lam will announce on Wednesday an expansion of Southbound Connect, the trading venue that allows Mainland Chinese investors to buy Hong Kong stocks, to include US-listed companies’ Hong Kong listings and Hong Kong-listed biotech stocks. How much money could flow into Alibaba’s Hong Kong listing? Looking at Southbound ownership as a percentage of shares outstanding, Mainland investors own 4.17% of Tencent and 6.42% of Meituan. So, this is real money flowing potentially into Alibaba Hong Kong, JD.com Hong Kong, which rose +1.04%, NetEase NTES +2.9%, which rose +1.55%, and Yum China Hong Kong, which rose +0.38%. Other volume leaders were Tencent, which fell -0.34%, Xiaomi, which fell -1.63%, BYD, which rose +0.81, Meituan, which fell -1.49%, Hong Kong Exchange, which gained +4.03% after announcing a new settlement platform for Northbound Connect, Ping An, which was off -1.24%, and Geely Auto, which gained +2.35%. While Tencent and Meituan were off as US dual listing stocks rose, it is worth noting that both stocks were bought heavily in Southbound Connect trading.
    There is chatter that Ping An’s valuation could be questioned after the announcement that Ant Group will be regulated more as a bank than as a fintech company, which is similar to Ping An’s efforts to be valued more as a fintech company than as an insurance company based on numerous successful investments in the space. Hong Kong is implementing increased social distancing on Hong Kong’s 4th wave, though healthcare stocks were off. Shanghai & Shenzhen were both off -0.34% on profit-taking in growth sectors, while many are predicting cyclical stocks to outperform as China’s economic rebound expands. Northbound Stock Connect had a small outflow driven by a few larger stock sales on the Shanghai. CNY was off a touch to 6.58 while the bond market stabilizes.
    Baozun’s Hong Kong listing followed its US listing down overnight despite what looked to be strong earnings. We are starting to see analysts opine on the strong Q3 earnings, which could give the stock some support. There are reports that a respected hedge fund manager is coming to the defense of JOYY (YY US), following a fraud allegation last week and the company’s strong denial. I don’t Tweet often but for intra-day updates, I can be followed at @ahern_brendan.
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  15. #715  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozzie View Post
    beat earnings by .17...122.00 today up another 6%.

    Looking for a pull back...Please


    Pulled back nicely...the run hasn't made sense despite news.

    Twist EOY financial reports. On the google drive.

    https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...qPKaISwwOMf5JN

    Link to call but you'll need to sign up.

    https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/jezd66vg


    Off a 119.00 high trading at 99.00 and change..Looking for chunk at around 90 to buy half again where I sold 1/2 in the first place to sell at around 104 on the next pop.
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  16. #716  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozzie View Post
    Mist opened up 100% at the bell.. how did you manage to leave money on the table?
    Also ABUS was halted not MIST. ABUS was a shot in the dark I'd bet, it's not often you find a stock worth investing in because it's litigating a judgment VS a major Pharma. Pretty unbelievable you found the 1 and 2 % movers in the market today...


    If you like real risk in a Pharma in litigation check out MNK
    Great book value/great product line and they have a few products in the FDA pipe now (3rd phase) The stock price has been absolutely crushed under massive pressure of litigation.
    Bankruptcy around the corner.. the stocks being shorted heavily when a bankruptcy is announced this will go up 15% off the bat.
    Decent play if you like chapter 11s' ..Look at the balance sheet it's sorta unreal the stock is 2.34 but the law suits again..could be right up your alley.
    Let me know what you think value and maybe from legal standpoint if you will... I'm curious.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...til-bankruptcy
    Formally great MNK is now trading as MNKKQ and is in bankruptcy but they are a company with more than decent product in the pipeline.
    If you like Craps this is a buy....It'll pop both up and down here for a bit but you'll need to watch it from the moment you buy..it'll have a few 50% days both directions and there is great daily liquidity so far...I'm buying next week early but just a few thousand shares for excitement...I want it to dive here in the next few days but it might pop the other direction..You could get stuck with it for a bit but I like the odd's to make a bit of pocket money selling it on moves....Gotta be a shark with this one..beware

    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=MNKKQ
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  17. #717  
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    I added a few shares of BABA again today.
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  18. #718  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    I added a few shares of BABA again today.
    "China Market Update: Alibaba, JD.com, And NetEase Rise On Southbound Stock Connect Inclusion"
    ^^^
    Nice.. you know, I can't find this news anyplace but Forbes but I looked a bit ago...Sorta makes me wonder if it's misreported ..it's news worthy I'd think.
    A 4 % inflow on the low side would be amazing with being included in the southbound..it's a great subject..The China connect program.
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  19. #719  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozzie View Post
    This is huge and something I've been waiting on ..Imagine living in mainland China and not being able to invest in BABA only because it's traded of the Hang Seng markets. The CCP has controlled who's able to traded 'southbound' on the HS exchange. Both BABA and JD finally got included after being turned away twice for inclusion. This means retail investors on the mainland with be able to buy BABA and JD on the open market in Hong Kong for the first time ever....It'll be a massive inflow of capital announcement tomorrow.
    Forbes

    China Market Update: Alibaba, JD.com, And NetEase Rise On Southbound Stock Connect Inclusion

    Asian equities largely celebrated Janet Yellen leading the US Treasury, the beginning of Biden’s transition, and the positive vaccine progress, with Japan returning from its three-day weekend gaining +2%. The Hang Seng managed a small gain that masked a weaker day than the 50 stock index would indicate. The index was led higher by Hong Kong volume leader Alibaba BABA +3.6% Hong Kong, which rose +2.27% on a Mainland media report that Chief Executive of Hong Kong Carrie Lam will announce on Wednesday an expansion of Southbound Connect, the trading venue that allows Mainland Chinese investors to buy Hong Kong stocks, to include US-listed companies’ Hong Kong listings and Hong Kong-listed biotech stocks. How much money could flow into Alibaba’s Hong Kong listing? Looking at Southbound ownership as a percentage of shares outstanding, Mainland investors own 4.17% of Tencent and 6.42% of Meituan. So, this is real money flowing potentially into Alibaba Hong Kong, JD.com Hong Kong, which rose +1.04%, NetEase NTES +2.9%, which rose +1.55%, and Yum China Hong Kong, which rose +0.38%. Other volume leaders were Tencent, which fell -0.34%, Xiaomi, which fell -1.63%, BYD, which rose +0.81, Meituan, which fell -1.49%, Hong Kong Exchange, which gained +4.03% after announcing a new settlement platform for Northbound Connect, Ping An, which was off -1.24%, and Geely Auto, which gained +2.35%. While Tencent and Meituan were off as US dual listing stocks rose, it is worth noting that both stocks were bought heavily in Southbound Connect trading.
    There is chatter that Ping An’s valuation could be questioned after the announcement that Ant Group will be regulated more as a bank than as a fintech company, which is similar to Ping An’s efforts to be valued more as a fintech company than as an insurance company based on numerous successful investments in the space. Hong Kong is implementing increased social distancing on Hong Kong’s 4th wave, though healthcare stocks were off. Shanghai & Shenzhen were both off -0.34% on profit-taking in growth sectors, while many are predicting cyclical stocks to outperform as China’s economic rebound expands. Northbound Stock Connect had a small outflow driven by a few larger stock sales on the Shanghai. CNY was off a touch to 6.58 while the bond market stabilizes.
    Baozun’s Hong Kong listing followed its US listing down overnight despite what looked to be strong earnings. We are starting to see analysts opine on the strong Q3 earnings, which could give the stock some support. There are reports that a respected hedge fund manager is coming to the defense of JOYY (YY US), following a fraud allegation last week and the company’s strong denial. I don’t Tweet often but for intra-day updates, I can be followed at @ahern_brendan.
    China Market Update: Southbound Connect Expansion Will Not Include Dual Share Classes, Value Rotation Goes Global


    (BABA And JD are both dual classed stocks unfortunately )

    Key News

    Asian equities seemed to question US stock euphoria in light of rising global coronavirus cases as markets were off on high volumes. High volume days are important clues on what big investors are thinking as these investors utilize them to shift their portfolios. What did today tell us? The value catch trade is a global phenomenon just as the growth outperformance over the last decade has been a global phenomenon. The 50 stock Hang Seng Index was up today masking an ugly day as the 400+ stock Hang Seng Composite was down -0.69% and the Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong within the MSCI MSCI +1.1% China All Shares Index were down -1.36%. A significant driver of growth stock weakness was Carrie Lam’s financial reform speech that didn’t include Hong Kong dual share classes becoming part of Connect as the market anticipated. No Bueno! STAR Board stocks will be added to Northbound Connect while biotech stocks will be added to Southbound Connect. Helping value stocks are rumors that HSBC’s dividend could be reinstated.
    Hong Kong volume leaders were Tencent, which fell -1.88% and had a rare selling day by Mainland investors via Southbound Connect, Xiaomi, which was off -3.68%, Alibaba BABA -0.8% Hong Kong, which dropped -1.11%, Meituan, which fell -3.23%, Ping An, which rose +2%, HSBC, which gained +6.54%, Hong Kong Exchanges, which fell -2.3%, BYD, which was off -3.55% and AIA, which rose +0.74%. Shanghai and Shenzhen were off -1.19% and -1.74% respectively despite Premier Li’s positive statements about the economy during the “1+6” Roundtable with the World Bank, WTO, OECD, Financial Stability Board, and IMF. Not helping growth stocks was India increasing the number of banned Chinese apps, including Alibaba’s international e-commerce unit. Growth names and YTD outperformers, which tend to be mid and small caps, were off on profit-taking. Concerns that President Trump will not go gentle into the night had technology stocks off on concerns that the technology ban could be expanded. A smaller EV player is falling under regulator scrutiny, leading to all things auto being taken to the woodshed on profit-taking. Foreign investors got in on the value rotation with net buying of Shanghai stocks while Shenzhen stocks were sold for an outflow of -$238mm via Northbound Connect. CNY was stable overnight.
    JD.com Hong Kong was off overnight despite progress on its JD Health spin-off IPO making progress. The company will sell 381mm shares between HKD 62.80 and HKD 70.58, which would raise around HKD 3.5B. The company has lined up several prestigious investors according to Bloomberg including PE/HF giant Hillhouse, Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC, and BlackRock BLK +0.6%. The company is expected to list next week or the week after. I don’t Tweet often but for intra-day updates, I can be followed at @ahern_brendan.
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  20. #720  
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    Interesting one today....

    Global Market Comments
    November 27, 2020
    Fiat Lux

    FEATURED TRADE:
    (NOVEMBER 25 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
    (TSLA), (CRM), (CRSP), (CVS), (SQ), (CRSP), (LUV), (GLD). (SLV), (SPY), (TMO), (UUP), (TAN), (FXA), (FXE), (FXY), (FXB), (CYB)


    November 25 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

    Below please find subscribersí Q&A for the November 25 Mad Hedge Fund TraderGlobal Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis. Q: Is gold (GLD) still a hold?
    A: Long term yes; short term no. Short term, cash is being drained out of gold in order to buy Bitcoin, just like silver. And once Bitcoin peaks, which could be today or tomorrow when it hits 20,000, then you could get a round of profit-taking and a nice little pop in gold. So, it's basically moving totally counter-cyclically to Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies right now.
    (Note: since this webinar, Bitcoin has crashed by $3,000)
    Q: A competitor of yours claims that asymptomatic transmission of COVID does not occur.
    A: I would bet money that person does not have a medical degree. Asymptomatic transmission occurs in almost all diseases, so why COVID would be an exception is beyond me. I suggest that somebody is trying to sell newsletters at your expense with zero knowledge about the topic. Ask him to kiss a Covid victim. This is common in my industry where 99% of the people are crooks. This is also an example of the vast amounts of information that have been spread during an election year.
    Q: Will you take a vaccine when itís out or will you let others try it first?
    A: Actually, by the time the public gets the vaccine, more than a million people will have already tried it, so I think it will be fairly safe. I am probably already the most vaccinated person on the planet; I've had flu shots every year for 40 years, so I will happily try it out. At my age, I have little to lose. And I would like to travel again, and thatís going to be a requirement for international travel. I am worried there could be long term side effects that weíve seen with other drugs in the past, like all future children being born without arms and legs, which is what happened in the 1950s with Thalidomide.
    Q: If the Senate flips to the Democrats, how do you see it affecting the market?
    A: It doesnít really affect the market overall; what it will do is affect sector reallocation. Solar, alternative energy and ESG companies do a lot better in A Democratic Senate, and energy oil companies do a lot worse. All you do is short the losers and buy the winners; it really makes no difference who wins. Most of the big conflicts over issues these days are social ones that donít affect the market.
    Q: Where do you see Tesla (TSLA) by the end of the year?
    A: Well, this morning, itís at an all-time high of $565. It looks like it wants to take a run at $600, and then we will be up 50% from where the news was announced that it was joining the S&P 500. That seems to me like a heck of a move on no real fundamental news. During this news, the market completely ignores a Model X recall and a Model Y pan from Consumer Reports. I would be inclined to take profits there or at least roll the strikes up on my options positions.
    Q: Whatís a good stock to play a commodity recovery?
    A: You canít do any better than Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), which Iíve been following for almost 50 years since I covered it for the Australian Financial Review newspapers.
    Q: Will Salesforce (CRM) hold?
    A: Yes, itís just a matter of time before we break out to substantial new highs, and this is a stock that could double next year.
    Q: What brokers do you suggest?
    A: I would pick tastyworks, owned by my friend Tom Sosnoff who will be speaking at the Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit next week and will be answering all your questions. Click here for their site. To register for the summit, click here.
    Q: Is CVS (CVS) a good buy?
    A: I would say yes; a billion Covid-19 vaccine doses will need to be distributed next year. You can't do that without all the drug companies participating big time.
    Q: Does Trump have a chance to win in his lawsuits?
    A: Itís more likely that I will be elected the next Miss America; so, I wouldnít place any bets on that. Some 30 consecutive Republican judges ruling against him does not augur well for his future.
    Q: Would you buy any LEAPS here (Long Term Equity Participation Securities)?
    A: Only in special one-off situations in the domestic stocks that havenít moved in ten years. There are a lot of those out there now that I have been recommending. Those are all fertile territory for LEAPs, especially going out 2 years where you get the maximum bang for the buck and a 1,000% return. Donít touch LEAPs in technology stocks here, and donít touch Tesla in LEAPs.
    Q: Whatís your outlook on Southwest Air (LUV)?
    A: I like it; itís one of the healthiest domestic airlines most likely to come back.
    Q: Are you going to update your long-term portfolio?
    A: Yes, but I only update it twice a year and my next turn is on January 22. If you bought the last update on July 22, you made a fortune getting into Freeport McMoRan at $12 (itís now $23), CRISPER Therapeutics at $80 (CRSP) (itís now $110), and Square (SQ) at $110 (the current is $212). You can find it by logging into www.madhedgefundtrader.com, going to My Account, clicking on Global Trading Dispatch, on the drop-down menu, click on the Long-Term Portfolio tab and then clicking on the red tab for the Long-Term Portfolio. That lets you download an excel spreadsheet.
    Q: Do you have any LEAPS to suggest now?
    A: I only put out portfolios of LEAPS at giant market bottoms like we had in March. Then I put out lists and lists of LEAPS. At all-time highs, itís not good LEAPS territory, except for specific names. So, if you want to get involved in that on a regular basis, I suggest you sign up for our Mad Hedge Concierge Service. There they are making millions of dollars a week right now.
    Q: Where does the US dollar (UUP) go from here?
    A: Straight down; the outlook for the buck couldn't be worse. I would be selling short the US dollar like crazy right now except that there are much better trades in US equities.
    Q: Just to be clear, thereís no voter fraud?
    A: Thereís probably never been an election in US history without voter fraud on all sides; itís just a question of whoís better at it. In the 1948 Texas Democratic Party runoff, back when the party owned Texas, Lyndon Johnson won by 87 votes out of 988,295 cast. It was later found that in five Hispanic-dominated counties that bordered Mexico, everyone had voted 100% for Johnson Ö.in alphabetical order. Johnson then took the seat with a 66% margin and went on to dominate the US Senate. I remember in the 1960 election, all the military absentee votes were sent flying around in circles over the Atlantic so Kennedy would win; thatís a story thatís been out there for a long time.
    Q: You said stay away from other EVs except for Tesla?
    A: A few have gone crazy this week, but that doesnít mean they can actually make a car. So, you might get lucky on a quick trade on some of these, but long term, I donít think any of the other non-Tesla EV companies are going to make it except for General Motors, which is plowing $27 billion into the sector. Even if (GM) may be able to put out a lot of cars, but they wonít be able to make very much money at it because theyíre nowhere near the neighborhood of Tesla with the software where all the money is made.
    Q: As the dollar gets weaker, will you expand your international stock picks?
    A: Yes, we put out the first one in a long time, Ali Baba (BABA), on Monday, and weíll be adding to that a bunch. I think the dollar could be weak for 5 or 10 years, a lot like it was in the 1970s.
    Q: Whatís your outlook for silver (SLV)?
    A: Same as for gold (GLD). Quiet for the short term, double for the long term.
    Q: Favorite names in biotech?
    A: For that, you really need to subscribe to the biotech letter; weíre giving you two names a week there and all of them have done great. But another one might be Thermo Fisher (TMO), which seems to double every time I recommend it. Itís a great takeover target too.
    Q: Is there any possibility of a 30% dip in the market (SPY) in 2021?
    A: No, I donít see more than a 10% dip in 2021. The tailwinds now are gale-force, generational, and will run for a decade.
    Q: How do you sell the US dollar rally?
    A: You buy all the ETFs that we cover in our foreign exchange sections. Those are the Australian dollar (FXA), the Euro (FXE), the Japanese Yen (FXY), the British pound (FXB), and the Chinese Yuan (CYB). Those are five ETFs that will do well on a weak dollar for the next several years.
    Q: What about the Invesco Solar ETF TAN?
    A: We have been recommending (TAN) for many years and it has done spectacularly well. I still love it long term, but itís had one heck of a run; itís up 300% from the March low. I think the entire country is about to have a solar explosion because the costs are now quite simply less than for oil. Itís an economic question. We are going to an all-Electric America.
    Q: What do you think about LEAPS on gold?
    A: Itís not really LEAPs territory yet, but on a two-year view, youíd have to do well on gold LEAPs.
    Q: Is the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) good to buy?
    A: You should be looking to short the UUP. Itís a long dollar basket which we think will do terribly.
    Good Luck and Stay Healthy.

    John Thomas
    CEO & Publisher
    The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader














    Quote of the Day

    "If we live in a period of uncertainty long enough, it becomes the norm," said Drew Matus, an economist at UBS.



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  21. #721  
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    Boz, explain what he means about the dollar being weaker for 5-10 years. What are these ETF's (the foreign currency ETFs) he's talking about?

    I like that he's positive on BABA.
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  22. #722  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    Boz, explain what he means about the dollar being weaker for 5-10 years. What are these ETF's (the foreign currency ETFs) he's talking about?

    I like that he's positive on BABA.
    Debt first then a move to gold by a lot of funds/Individuals have been the main reasons..Doubtful the reserve status is in question but dollars are not in favor as an investment right now...gold,Yuan and crypto.
    Those ETFs are a simple way for a retail investor to play currencies markets during regular trading hours. Used to speculate on forex markets mostly single currencies but sometimes a basket of a few, managers can also add short term contracts/derivative contracts/ Debt denomination.. it's used a hedge VS the dollar or that's the way he's looking at it..I think.

    I do like the some of the Non currency based Chinese ETFs though.
    KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF.(Symbol KWEB )... Up 3+% this week.


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  23. #723  
    RX Senior
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozzie View Post
    Debt first then a move to gold by a lot of funds/Individuals have been the main reasons..Doubtful the reserve status is in question but dollars are not in favor as an investment right now...gold,Yuan and crypto.
    Those ETFs are a simple way for a retail investor to play currencies markets during regular trading hours. Used to speculate on forex markets mostly single currencies but sometimes a basket of a few, managers can also add short term contracts/derivative contracts/ Debt denomination.. it's used a hedge VS the dollar or that's the way he's looking at it..I think.

    I do like the some of the Non currency based Chinese ETFs though.
    KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF.(Symbol KWEB )... Up 3+% this week.


    Thanks Boz. What's the expectation for these ETF's? Safe growth? Expect small return, but no losses? (sort of like a low yield savings - when they paid 1-2%)?

    I have a question for you about SQQQ. I've lost my ass w/ this (since the market keeps going up). I'm down nearly 40% in the shares I own. What should I do with it? Hold on until there is a market down turn? If I sell now I've lost a few thousand $$.
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  24. #724  
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    Thanks Boz. What's the expectation for these ETF's? Safe growth? Expect small return, but no losses? (sort of like a low yield savings - when they paid 1-2%)?

    I have a question for you about SQQQ. I've lost my ass w/ this (since the market keeps going up). I'm down nearly 40% in the shares I own. What should I do with it? Hold on until there is a market down turn? If I sell now I've lost a few thousand $$.
    Safe growth exposer to the growth markets...Yes... that YTD % is misleading it's up almost 50% YTD and you can find others too..some of the emerging market ETFs sorta interest me as well. EMQQ is a good one.. US based and a basket of investments weighted toward Asian markets but includes other markets as well. up 50% YTD...For an example of the holdings.. https://www.emqqetf.com/emqq-holdings/ ultra pro's run reputable ETFs.. it's a nice stress off investment knowing someone smarter than me is pulling levers someplace else...watch and reading for me,

    Million dollar question is what the market going to do..I've sold about 40% outa one account..Maybe I shouldn't have but I did lock profits.
    One deal with sqqq is you could just keep losing..it'll split down again and reset if the market keeps going up.. SQQQ can be a black hole for money...I managed to lose (about a grand) on it too only holding it for short times...It's a good question I wish I could answer but I might cut bait this market is insanely hard to figure.. Stimulus is most likely 60 days + away but the market cares not for the populous pains. I really don't know.
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  25. #725  
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    This is worth the read..Published in 2015 but still relevant ..Surprised the fund would leave a 6 year old thesis up.
    Only 4 pages but places BABA's IOP in an historical sense in the rise of EM's

    https://www.emqqetf.com/static/sitep...Whitepaper.pdf
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