Forum: Financial Investment Forum. - Discuss Stocks, Cryptocurrency, And Other Financial Investments

Thread: Intersting thoughts

  1. #1626  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,004
    
    Read in Browser
    Top News
    Fed meeting finesse
    Shutterstock
    The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that's been hyping up big macro events lately. This is certainly the most important FOMC meeting since, well, the last FOMC meeting. But if Chairman Jay Powell and company avoid taper talk and keep rate forecasts steady, Wall Street could shrug it off, like recent jobs and inflation reports. While nobody expects a rate hike when the statement arrives, there's plenty for the FOMC to try and finesse in its statement and for Powell to address at his Q&A.

    The "Fed has to navigate desire to taper asset purchases through land mines of uncertainties about the economy and the risks posed by variants, debt ceiling politics, China & inflation," Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, tweeted yesterday. Stock index futures are higher after dip-buying faded yesterday and the broader market closed lower again. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 1 basis point to 1.33%. There is some speculation that the recent market selloff, with the S&P looking at its worst monthly performance in a year, could make Fed members gun-shy about a hawkish tilt. But Renaissance Macro Research says the current selloff is "not even close to having the Fed shift course."

    The "S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is basically flat since the Fed’s July 28 confab," RenMac tweets. "When we think about the last few times China was the source of the concern 2015/2016, the US equity decline was far more pronounced."

    Asset purchase tapering: Calls for the Fed to trim its $120B per month in asset purchases are growing as inflation heats up. But the consensus is that there will be no official announcement today. Two-thirds of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a November announcement, with more than half expecting the Fed to start the taper in December. Still, Powell has been adamant he will give ample notice for any moves. The August jobs report gave "the doves on the Federal Reserve’s board, essentially where we think the Chair resides today, some fodder for postponing a tapering of the QE asset purchase program, though we think this would be a mistake," BlackRock's Rick Rieder writes. "Yet, we do believe that we will learn more details in September from the FOMC meeting, relative to what the Fed’s schedule for tapering will be."

    A change in the wording of the statement may be where the market gets that signal. "If the Fed signals any change, expect different language in the third paragraph of its statement, where the committee may update the risk to the outlook as balanced, which may signal tapering before the end of the year," economist Joseph Brusuelas writes in his Real Economy Blog. "In 2013, before its previous round of tapering, the Fed used its statement to signal coming policy action, so it may choose to take that approach this week." Mohamed El-Erian says the Fed needs to act as the window to tapering is closing.

    Dissecting the dot plot: The latest dot plot chart of Fed member interest rate projections, which caused a stir last time, will also be closely watched, much to the chagrin of Powell. The "sole purpose" of the "fabled dot plot ... is to increase confusion and misunderstanding in financial markets," UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan writes. The dot plot is meant to illustrate where individual members see rates going, but not where they will or necessarily want them to go and the Fed chief has said it is not a great forecaster. But if three members raise their 2022 dots, the new median will be for a quarter-point hike that year, and Wall Street banks have been aggressively marketing short-term interest rate derivatives that would pay off with tightening pulled forward, Bloomberg reports. "Watch the dots - likely will see initial rate hike pulled into 2022 with more in 2023," Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist for Schwab, tweets. "Look out for (jobless) projections - (that) will indicate what Fed sees as 'full employment.'"

    Ethics questions: Beyond monetary policy, Powell may face some difficult questions about the recent controversy of the asset portfolios of Fed governors. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan's trading in individual stocks last year, including several megacaps that tend to benefit from lower interest rates, prompted the Fed chairman to open an ethics review. And Powell and two other Fed members owned securities that the central bank was buying last year. (8 comments)


    Energy
    Permian purchase
    ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) will become the second-largest oil and gas producer in the Lower 48 U.S. states following its $9.5B acquisition of Shell's assets in the Permian Basin, as the pecking order is reshuffled among top U.S. shale drillers.

    Adding an estimated 200K boe/day will put Conoco within striking distance of leader Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), which is expected to produce about 1M boe/day from the Lower 48 this year.

    Conoco's deal will propel it past Chevron (NYSE:CVX), EQT Corp. (NYSE:EQT), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) and EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), according to consulting firm Rystad Energy. (20 comments)


    Consumer
    Cashing in on shorts
    AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) and Blackstone (NYSE:BX) top the list of stocks that short sellers might be tempted to cash in on.

    S3 Partners' Ihor Dusaniwsky breaks down the one-day return for stocks with a short interest level of over $1B as he factors in the gains on a percentage basis. The mark-to-market gains are seen making those stocks more likely to be cashed in by short sellers. (29 comments)


    Sponsored By VantagePoint
    Educate Yourself, Beat Wall Street
    Hardworking retail investors are finally being looked at as a major force in the market. They are beating the billionaires and hedge fund elites and it feels good.
    We are on the right side of this radical shift…and we make it our duty to help traders continue to grow their portfolio successfully. That’s why we made our live masterclass “Find the Next Big Stock Movers Using A.I.” available for FREE for anyone who wants it. Click here to secure your seat.Room will automatically close at 200 guests.
    You will be shown a free A.I. forecast to see what’s next for the markets. Keep your investments safe and your trades profitable. Knowledge is power!


    Earnings
    Adobe earnings
    Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) fell in extended-hours trading after it reported fiscal third-quarter earnings where it beat consensus on top and bottom lines and guided above expectations for the current quarter.

    Revenue rose 22% to a record $3.94 billion, with gains spread broadly. Gross profit jumped to $3.47 billion from $2.8B, a year ago. Non-GAAP operating income came to $1.81 billion. (25 comments)


    IPOs
    Toast IPO
    Toast (NYSE:TOST), a restaurant-specific software platform priced its IPO of 21.7M common shares at $40/share, significantly above its expected range of $34-$36, upped from the previous price of $30-$33.

    The company will raise $869.6M for a valuation of about $20B. Shares are set to begin trading Wednesday on NYSE. Founded in 2011, Toast makes software for restaurants to manage functions like business operations, online ordering and delivery, and integrated payments. (1 comment)


    Trending
    Evergrande interest payments
    Bloomberg reports that Hengda Real Estate - the main unit of troubled Chinese property developer Evergrande - will make its Thursday bond coupon payment.

    This hardly means Evergrande is out of the woods. Indeed, a restructuring at some point still remains likely. But a disorderly unwind seems off the table at the moment. (68 comments)


    Today's Markets
    In Asia, Japan -0.67%. Hong Kong Closed. China +0.4%. India -0.13%.
    In Europe, at midday, London +1.17%. Paris +1.10%. Frankfurt +0.58%.
    Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.59%. S&P +0.55%. Nasdaq +0.34%. Crude +1.59% at $71.61. Gold +0.1% at $1775. Bitcoin -3.1% at $42103.
    Ten-year Treasury Yield +1.2 bps to 1.336%

    Today's Economic Calendar
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    10:00 Existing Home Sales
    10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
    11:30 Results of $26B, 2-Year FRN Auction
    2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
    2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference

    Companies reporting earnings today »

    What else is happening...
    Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) eyes a correction, S&P 500 (SP500) falling as much as 20%.

    QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) soars after another deal with 'top ten' automaker.

    Freshworks (FRSH) prices 28.5M-share IPOabove range at $36.

    U.S. nat gas (NG1:COM) slides to two-week low on more bearish weather outlook.

    Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) debuts new portable Portal video device.

    AT&T's (NYSE:T) Stankey: HBO Max deserved value unlock; Cost cuts one-third complete.

    DOJ, six states sue American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU)over alleged anticompetitive partnership.

    Office REIT stocks make headway after Google's (GOOG, GOOGL) $2.1B office deal reported.


    Seeking More
    Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

    Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.


    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #1627  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,004

    September 23, 2021

    Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


    Built on shaky financial foundations.Aly Song/Reuters


    The Evergrande trade

    Fears of the fallout from Evergrande’s potential collapse faded somewhat as Chinese regulators reportedly instructed the embattled property developer to repay some of its debts and China’s central bank injected money into the country’s financial system. Evergrande’s stock jumped nearly 20 percent today, even as large holders said that they might dump their stakes and doubts swirled around an $83 million interest payment on a dollar bond due today.

    Market watchers are assessing the implications of a potential restructuring of Evergrande’s $300 billion in debts. A full-blown bailout is unlikely, analysts say, but Beijing has the means to limit the damage if the company fails. “We believe that Evergrande is an exceptional case that is unlikely to lead to a broader systemic crisis in the property sector,” Houze Song of the Paulson Institute wrote in a recent report.

    International investors in Evergrande’s bonds are preparing for turmoil — and in some cases buying more. Evergrande’s debt is in the portfolios of many major investment firms, and some hedge funds have been adding more to their holdings as prices have tumbled. A group of bondholders has tapped restructuring advisers at Kirkland & Ellis and at Moelis. For its part, Evergrande has hired the firms Houlihan Lokey and Hong Kong Admiralty Harbour Capital. How might the negotiations play out?


    ADVERTISEMENT



    U.S. institutional investors are largely invested in Evergrande’s offshore bonds, which are worth a relatively small portion of the company’s overall debt. Those securities are linked to various private and public companies separate from Evergrande’s property business, such as an electric-vehicle division. The units could still have value even if the real-estate business defaults, and bonds issued by Evergrande’s Cayman Islands-based units are governed by different rules than the debt issued in mainland China.

    Beijing’s intentions are unclear, especially when it comes to prioritizing debt holders at home and abroad. In the bankruptcy of Dubai World, in which confidence in a country’s financial system was similarly wrapped up in a single company, the company managed to pay back its creditors. But Dubai is a big borrower that relies on international credit markets, quite unlike China, which has recently discouraged local companies from listing abroad, among related measures. Despite all the uncertainty, with prices on some of Evergrande’s offshore dollar bonds that mature within months trading below 30 cents on the dollar, bargain hunters with a big appetite for risk see a bet worth taking.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

    Boosters for some, but not for all. The F.D.A. approved an extra dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus shot for people 65 and older and for those at risk of becoming severely ill from Covid. Separately, President Biden said that the U.S. would purchase 500 million more doses of the Pfizer vaccine to donate abroad.

    Facebook’s chief technology officer is leaving. In a rare change to the company’s top ranks, Mike Schroepfer will departas the tech giant faces scrutiny for issues as varied as toxic speech, misinformation and privacy.

    Lawmakers take aim at key SPAC sponsors. Senator Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats sent letters to serial backers of blank-check investment vehicles, including Michael Klein and Chamath Palihapitiya, expressing concern about “misaligned incentives.” They asked the financiers to respond to a list of questions about how their SPACs work by Oct. 8.

    The next U.S. comptroller of the currency could be a Bitcoin skeptic. President Biden is reportedly set to nominate Saule Omarova, a law professor who has criticized cryptocurrencies and said that regulators (like the office of the comptroller) should oversee fintech firms as closely as banks.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    The White House moves to limit a major driver of climate change. The E.P.A. is expected to announce today a rule that would reduce the use of hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, which are widely used in air-conditioners and refrigerators. Experts said that the change would be a major step in cutting the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.


    For the Fed, is now the time?

    The Federal Reserve said yesterday that it could soon slow the large-scale bond purchases that have propped up the economy during the pandemic. “It’s time for us to begin to taper them,” Jay Powell, the Fed chair, said. With that end in sight, DealBook asked some experts whether it was the right time to pull the plug on the extra support.

    • Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former top adviser to the Bank of England, said that before the pandemic, Powell promised he would allow inflation to rise to make the economy more inclusive. Now, the Fed has reverted to worrying about inflation when millions are still out of work and price increases are the result of supply-chain problems, Posen said. “If inflation comes in higher than expected, the Fed is going to tighten faster than it should want, and that is a mistake,” he said.

    • Vincent Deluard, the global macro strategist at StoneX, said that the Fed’s pledge to get the official unemployment rate back down to where it was before the pandemic had led it to take too long to taper. “The idea that we are going back to something where people are as tied to a full-time employer as they were before is probably something that is impossible to achieve,” he said.
    • Robert Eisenbeis, a former top Fed staffer who is now the chief monetary strategist for Cumberland Advisors, is critical of the ambiguity around the Fed’s plan, which could stoke market volatility. Powell said that a specific timeline for tapering had not been set, and that at least one more month of solid job growth was necessary. “Powell has said the Fed has a ‘wonderful framework for communication,’” Eisenbeis said. “It’s garbage.”


    Seen and heard

    ► “There just came a point where I didn’t know what to believe about Theranos anymore.”

    — The former Theranos director Jim Mattis, giving testimony at the trial of Elizabeth Holmes. The retired four-star general and former defense secretary said that he had been misled by the claims made by Holmes, the founder of Theranos.

    ► “It’s clear that you think AMC should accept Dogecoin. Now we need to figure out how to do that. Stay tuned!”

    — Adam Aron, the C.E.O. of AMC Entertainment, the theater chain and meme-stock darling, after conducting a poll on Twitter.

    ► “The hard-working warehouse employees who have helped sustain us during these unprecedented times should not have to risk injury or face punishment as a result of exploitative quotas.”

    — Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, who signed a bill yesterday that restricts warehouse operators from setting certain productivity quotas, which could alter Amazon’s labor practices. Business groups said that it would lead to litigation and supply-chain disruptions.


    Toast’s I.P.O. pops up

    Shares of Toast, a company that makes technology for restaurants, jumped more than 50 percent yesterday in its first day of trading. It closed the day with a market capitalization of more than $30 billion, up from an $8 billion private valuation in November. DealBook spoke with Chris Comparato, Toast’s C.E.O., about the company’s debut — and about what’s in store.

    “We had a great roadshow, there was a ton of investor interest,” Comparato said. The company priced its I.P.O. above an already raised target range, giving it a market cap of $20 billion going into the start of trading yesterday. “We felt like we priced where the business was valued,” Comparato said. “At that point, we said, ‘Pens down.’”

    Toast had to lay off about half of its staff early in the pandemic as restaurants closed during lockdowns. But helping restaurants adapt to delivery and takeout orders — what Comparato calls “an omnichannel, off-premise experience” — has become a boon for Toast, which brought in $703 million in revenue in the first half of 2021, more than in all of 2019.



    A look inside Robinhood during meme-stock mania

    The trading app Robinhood has grown explosively, gone publicand, for good measure, is now getting into crypto wallets. But internal exchanges between company managers revealed in a new legal filing — featuring Robinhood’s C.E.O., Vlad Tenev — highlight the tensions between fast growth and consumer protection.

    A class-action lawsuit brought by Robinhood users alleges that the company was negligent during a period of extreme market volatility in late January, knowing it had insufficient capital to handle all the trading by new and existing users. That ultimately led the company to impose limits on trading in meme stocks like GameStop and AMC, the subject of subsequent congressional hearings.

    Here’s a glimpse inside Robinhood in the days before it limited trading in meme stocks:

    Jan. 23: As Robinhood discussed how to manage the risks of the frenzied trading in GameStop, a company insider wrote that “the process outlined above covers firm risk well, but from a public perception POV, we may want to consider the risks our customers face. Is there a comms need or other action we should consider?”

    Jan. 25: Company engineers and executives chatted about surging trading volumes.“There are internal things that are starting to buckle under pressure,” a software engineer wrote. An engineering executive noted that a “code yellow” could be declared, putting all other work at the company on hold. “Only the paranoid survive,” Tenev responded. “One who panics first panics best,” added the company’s head of data science. “Joy,” said Tenev.

    Jan. 28: Robinhood limits trading in meme stocks during the peak of the short squeeze, facing inquiries from the National Securities Clearing Corporation about whether it had enough capital to cover the trading risk. In an internal chat, Robinhood’s chief operating officer, David Dusseault, wrote that the company was “to [sic] big for them to actually shut us down.”

    Maurice Pessah, attorney for the plaintiffs, said that the communications showed that Robinhood executives had been willing to put investors and markets at risk to advance their own interests. In a statement, a Robinhood spokeswoman told DealBook that the company stood by its decisions and that “communications cited by the plaintiffs are entirely consistent with Robinhood’s communications and actions on Jan. 28.”


    Want to share The New York Times with your friends and family? Invite them to enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

    THE SPEED READ

    Deals

    • Veritas Capital and Elliott Management, the owners of Athenahealth, are reportedly considering a sale or I.P.O. that could value the health tech firm at more than $20 billion. (Bloomberg)
    • The trading platform eToro delayed to the fourth quarter its plan to list via a SPAC merger. (CoinDesk)
    • Deutsche Bank’s C.F.O., James von Moltke, said that the banking industry in Europe needed to prepare for more consolidation. (Reuters)

    Policy

    • The E.U. unveiled a plan to require a standard charging port for all smartphones, tablets and other devices sold in the bloc. (NYT)
    • “It’s Not Really a ‘$3.5 Trillion’ Bill” (Times Opinion)
    • The wealthiest 400 households in the U.S. pay an effective federal income tax rate of just over 8 percent, White House economists say. (NYT)

    Best of the rest

    • Automakers will lose out on more than $200 billion in sales because of the global chip shortage. (Bloomberg)
    • Apple is not letting Fortnite back on the App Store until the verdict in its court case with Epic Games is final. (WaPo)
    • Male C.E.O.s with “manly” voices get paid more, a study shows. (Quartz)


    Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

    Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

    We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.



    Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
    Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
    Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
    Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel
    Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
    Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
    Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs


    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #1628  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,004
    Global Market Comments
    September 23, 2021
    Fiat Lux

    Featured Trade:
    (THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT VIDEOS ARE UP!)
    (WHY WARREN BUFFET HATES GOLD),
    (GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (GOLD)



    The Mad Hedge Summit Videos are UpThe Mad Hedge Summit videos are up from the September 14-16 confab. Listen to 27 speakers opine on the best strategies, tactics, and instruments to use in these volatile markets. It is a true smorgasbord of investment strategies. Find the best one to suit your own goals.

    The product discounts offered last week are still valid. Start, stop, and pause the videos at your leisure. Best of all, access to the videos is FREE. Access them all by clicking here at www.madhedge.com, click on CURRENT SUMMIT REPLAYS in the upper right-hand corner, and then chose the speaker of your choice.




    Why Warren Buffet Hates GoldThose in the investment business are well used to the Armageddon crowd. These are the guys who are perennially predicting the collapse of the dollar, the default of the US government, hyperinflation, and the end of the world.

    Maybe after 11 years of rising, stocks are finally expensive on a relative basis?

    Their perennial recommendations are to keep all your assets in gold and silver, store at least a year’s worth of canned food, and keep your untraceable guns well-oiled and supplied with ammo, preferably in high capacity magazines.

    If you followed their advice, you lost your shirt.

    I have broken many of these wayward acolytes of their money-losing habits. But not all of them. There seems to be an endless supply emanating from the hinterlands.

    The “Oracle of Omaha” Warren Buffet often goes to great lengths to explain why he despises the yellow metal.

    The sage doesn't really care about the gold, whatever the price. He sees it primarily as a bet on fear. I imagine he feels the same about Bitcoin, the modern tulips of our age.

    If investors are more afraid in a year than they are today, then you make money on gold. If they aren't, then you lose money.

    The only problem now is that fear ain’t working.

    If you took all the gold in the world, it would form a cube 67 feet on a side, worth $5 trillion. For that same amount of money, you could own other assets with far greater productive earning power, including:

    *All the farmland in the US, about 1 billion acres, which is worth $2.5 trillion.
    *Two Apple’s (AAPL), the largest capitalized company in the world at $2.1 trillion.
    Instead of producing any income or dividends, gold just sits there and shines, making you feel like King Midas.
    I don't know. With the stock market at an all-time high, and oil trading at $70.49/barrel, a bet on fear looks pretty good to me right now.

    I'm still sticking with my long-term forecast of the old inflation-adjusted high of $2,300/ounce. But it might be very long term.

    It is just a matter of time before emerging market central bank buying pushes it up there. And who knows? Fear might make a comeback too.



    Quote of the Day“Every recession sows the seeds for the next business recovery, and every recovery sows the seeds of the next recession,” said hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors.



    This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
    The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
    For full disclosures click here at:

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

    The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
    and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
    are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
    The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C)
    is protected by the United States Copyright Office




    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #1629  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,004

    September 24, 2021

    Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


    Behind closed doors, the Treasury Department is devising new crypto rules.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times


    Making the case for stablecoins

    Financial regulators are racing to regulate stablecoins. These digital currencies pegged to a stable asset like the dollar are used in crypto trading, banking and decentralized finance, addressing the problem of price volatility that plagues Bitcoin and others. Stablecoins have become an important bridge between digital currencies and the traditional financial system.

    But despite their name, stablecoins may be shaky. The urgency among regulators to rein in the industry has, in turn, generated a flurry of crypto industry lobbying all over Washington, Eric Lipton, Jeanna Smialek and DealBook’s Ephrat Livni report.

    From boom to bank run? In their short history, lightly regulated stablecoin issuers have shown that they don’t always have the cash reserves they claim. Tether, the company behind the most popular stablecoin, settled an investigation by the New York attorney general this year that alleged that it had obscured what it held in reserve. Officials fear a digital-era bank run may loom if new rules aren’t created soon for the booming stablecoin sector.

    “Regulators really start to care more when risks get greater for society,” said Jeremy Allaire, the C.E.O. of Circle, a payments and digital currency company that helped create the fast-growing stablecoin USD Coin with the crypto exchange Coinbase. Collectively, dollar-tied stablecoins have jumped from $30 billion in circulation in January to about $125 billion as of mid-September.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    Executives are pushing their perspectives. Ahead of a Treasury Department report on stablecoins expected this fall, crypto businesses have in recent weeks held dozens of meetings with cabinet members, White House staff members, federal lawmakers and financial regulators. Tight regulations could drive innovation abroad, hamper financial inclusion, risk the dollar’s primacy and kill the promise of digital finance, the industry argues. And each company is advancing a view on regulation that, if embraced, would put them ahead of the competition.

    “If we think back on the 20th century, first you had key innovations like aviation or automobiles,” said Tomicah Tillemann, a onetime aide to Joe Biden when Mr. Biden was a senator but who now works for Andreessen Horowitz, the venture capital firm that’s a major crypto investor. “And then you have investments in regulatory frameworks that helped to bring the benefits of those technologies to larger numbers of people.”

    In other crypto news, government agencies in China today reiterated that all cryptocurrency-related activities are illegalin the country, vowing harsher crackdowns. Prices are falling.

    HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

    A government cash crunch is weeks away. In a report today, the Bipartisan Policy Center said that the U.S. government could run out of cash and start missing payments on things like Social Security checks as soon as Oct. 15, but no later than Nov. 4. The White House has started to advise federal agencies to prepare for the first government shutdown since 2019.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    Workers in risky jobs can also get a coronavirus booster shot, the C.D.C. director says. Dr. Rochelle Walensky overruled her agency’s advice by recommending an additional Pfizer vaccine dose for health care workers, teachers and others whose jobs put them at increased risk. The agency had recommended boosters only for people over 65 and those with underlying medical conditions.

    New York City sets new rules for delivery workers. The first-of-its-kind legislation requires app-based delivery companies like Grubhub to disclose their tipping policies, gives delivery workers more control over where they work and requires restaurant owners to make bathrooms available to delivery workers.

    The S.E.C. flexes its muscles on market abuse. The commission in the past week has charged 14 individuals, across eight different cases, of multimillion-dollar frauds. Yesterday, a former Oppenheimer Funds trader was charged with placing more than 3,000 illegal trades, generating $8.5 million in gains, in a “front running” scheme.

    Delta Air Lines calls for a national “no fly” list of unruly passengers. The company said in a memo to other airlines that it had banned 1,600 people, and it called for carriers to combine their internal lists. A congressional panel yesterday heard that the F.A.A. had logged 4,284 “unruly passenger reports” since January, with about three-quarters related to mask wearing.


    ADVERTISEMENT



    What’s going on at Evergrande?

    Evergrande, the beleaguered Chinese property developer, left investors wondering yesterday about the fate of an $83 million interest payment due on a dollar-denominated bond. One bondholder told DealBook they had not been paid, but the covenants provide a 30-day grace period before a default.

    Shares of Evergrande dropped more than 10 percent today, but they are still up on recent lows. Global markets are also giving back some, but not all, of their recent gains. How worried should investors be about Evergrande’s potential collapse? Here’s a refresher on where we are and what might happen next.

    How did Evergrande get so big? The company’s billionaire founder, Xu Jiayin, is affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party, most likely giving creditors more confidence to keep lending money as Evergrande rode the country’s epic property boom. Eventually, though, Evergrande amassed more debt — some $300 billion — than it could seemingly pay back. Now, Chinese regulators are cracking down on the aggressive borrowing habits of developers as China’s property market cools.

    Could its troubles hurt the Chinese economy? A messy restructuring or default could hit confidence, drag down property prices and dent household wealth. It could also make it harder for other Chinese companies to finance their businesses with foreign investments. Avoiding that fate and containing the fallout could force China to backstop Evergrande, directly or indirectly.

    How exposed are international investors? Ralph Hamers, the C.E.O. of UBS, said Evergrande’s troubles had “not been keeping me up at night.” (UBS is an Evergrande bondholder, but the bank’s direct exposure is “immaterial,” Hamers said.) Noel Quinn, the C.E.O. of HSBC, also an Evergrande bondholder, said the situation was “concerning” but that the bank hadn’t changed its approach to commercial real estate in China. On Wednesday, the Fed chair, Jay Powell, described Evergrande’s troubles as “particular to China.”


    “The name of the game for these old guys is to show they are like her.”

    — The Times’s Christopher Schuetze on how the two leading candidates to become Germany’s next chancellor, Armin Laschet and Olaf Scholz, have pitched themselves to voters ahead of Sunday’s election. Angela Merkel is stepping down after 16 years, and much is at stake for the next leader of Europe’s largest economy. Listen to “The Daily” for more on Germany after Merkel, and here’s what else you need to know about the vote.


    A push to keep annual meetings virtual

    Last year, roughly 2,000 public companies in the U.S. held their annual shareholders meetings virtually, according to Broadridge Financial Solutions. That was up from about 300 in 2019. Now, a group of shareholder activists are pushing companies to keep those meetings virtual, or add a remote option, permanently. They are having some success.

    This week, the S.E.C. ruled that two companies, Brinker International and Campbell Soup, had to allow a shareholder vote on whether the remote option for meetings would continue. The companies had asked the S.E.C. to allow them to exclude the proposals at their upcoming meetings. After the ruling, Brinker decided to make its meeting open to remote attendees. Campbell will hold a vote on the matter at its next meeting.

    Shareholder meetings have traditionally been in-person affairs. Companies generally prefer that format because it limits attendees — and with it questions board members might face. Shareholder advocates have long said that virtual meetings level the playing field for smaller investors who might not have the resources to travel to a meeting.

    Virtual meetings “fundamentally change the scope of shareholder engagement and accessibility,” Matthew Prescott, a shareholder advocate and senior director at the Humane Society, told DealBook. His group sponsored the proposals about virtual meetings at Brinker and Campbell.

    Shareholders have long had the ability to vote remotely before a meeting. A study this year found that meetings held virtually didn’t tend to generate more shareholder engagement than in-person meetings. “These shareholder proposals will not garner any meaningful support,” said Douglas Chia, a corporate governance expert and the author of the study.


    Harper

    Weekend reading: Maximum resiliency

    The pandemic hasn’t changed everything about how we live and work, but it has changed a lot. And there is more change to come, argues the former F.D.A. commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb in his new book, “Uncontrolled Spread.” DealBook spoke to Dr. Gottlieb, who is a Pfizer board member, about doing business in the new world that Covid is creating. The interview has been edited and condensed.

    DealBook: What does the previous pandemic tell us about the future after this one?

    Dr. Gottlieb: The 1918 flu pandemic was an inflection point in history. Very clearly, this pandemic has changed the course of history. In terms of culture and society, it’s early to say what the effects will be. But Covid has exposed the vulnerabilities in many aspects of society — essential workers, people with lower incomes, older populations and minorities. We’ll be forced to change.

    How will workplaces change?

    A workplace needs to be made impervious to viral threats. There are no clear lines demarcating phases, but at some point, Covid will become a persistent threat, like the flu. We need to think about de-densifying spaces, better airflow, changing commutes and businesses voluntarily requiring vaccination.

    What about conferences?

    Events will have to be moved outdoors and held in specific seasons. Conferences could become more bespoke, and there will be hybrid approaches, both live and virtual.

    How else will our thinking change, in the big picture?

    We’ll have to look systematically at our entire system of government and business, the way we operate in the world, how we evaluate risks globally and, from that, create a new framework based on a need for preparedness. We will have to think about maximum resiliency versus maximum efficiency, taking a view of public health as a priority — an economic and national security issue.


    Want to share The New York Times with your friends and family? Invite them to enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

    THE SPEED READ

    Deals

    • Barry Diller’s IAC is reportedly in talks to buy the magazine publisher Meredith for $2.5 billion. (WSJ)
    • Daimler is teaming up with Stellantis to produce battery cells at new gigafactories in France and Germany. (FT)
    • Vitalize is the latest venture fund to start an angel investing program for non-accredited investors. (Twitter)
    • Gorillas, a European grocery delivery start-up, raised funds at a $3 billion valuation. (The Information)

    Policy

    • New federal flood insurance rules that reflect the real risks of climate change will make the premiums for waterfront homes soar. (NYT)
    • EQT, the largest listed private equity firm in Europe, is being investigated for market abuse in Sweden. (Bloomberg)
    • The F.E.C. rejected complaints about election interference made by Representative Matt Gaetz and former President Donald Trump against Twitter and Snapchat. (Insider)

    Best of the rest

    • The wealth gap between Black and white Americans is so enormous that only reparations can fix it, an economist argues. (NYT)
    • “When You ‘Ask App Not to Track,’ Some iPhone Apps Keep Snooping Anyway.” (WaPo)
    • A memoir from a well-connected businessman in China gives a rare insight into the interplay between money and power in the country. (NYT)
    • Rihanna, the pop star turned fashion mogul, on becoming a billionaire. (NYT)


    Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

    Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

    We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.



    Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
    Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
    Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
    Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel
    Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
    Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
    Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #1630  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    8,742
    What's your thoughts on GLD?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #1631  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,004
    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    What's your thoughts on GLD?
    Did you read this today CB?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/24/is-g...nvestment.html

    I'm in WB's corner
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #1632  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,004


    Global Market Comments
    September 24, 2021
    Fiat Lux

    Featured Trade:
    (TESTIMONIAL)
    (SEPTEMBER 22 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
    (TLT), (TBT), (V), (AXP), (MA), (FSLR), (SPWR), (USO), (UNG), (PFE), (JNJ), (MRNA), (MS), (JPM), (FCX), (X), (FDX), (GLD), (UPS), (SLV), (AAPL), (VIX), (VXX), (UAL), (DAL), (ALK), (BRK/B), (BABA), (BITCOIN), (ETHEREUM), (YELL)


    TestimonialAll my friends tell me that I’m the smartest person they know. All I’m doing is repeating back to them what I read in your newsletter, Thanks for all you do.

    Tim
    Lafayette, CA




    September 22 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&ABelow please find subscribers’ Q&A for the September 22 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from the safety of Silicon Valley.
    Q: When’s the United States US Treasury bond fund (TLT) going to go down?
    A: When J. Powell tapers, which will be either today or in 6 weeks. That's the time frame we’re looking at now, and people are positioning now for the taper—that's why financials are taking off like a rocket. Buy those financials and don't expect too much from your tech stocks for the next few months.
    Q: What do you think of adding corporate or municipal bonds to my portfolio?
    A: Don’t do that on pain of death please; you will lose money. Corporate bonds will get slaughtered the second interest rates turn because they have the most exposure from a credit point of view to any downgrades resulting from rising interest rates. Better to keep your money in cash than buy bonds here. It was a great idea 10 years ago, but a terrible idea today. Just buy cash or buy extremely deep-in-the-money LEAPS which will get you a 10-20% per year return.
    Q: What are the chances that the government defaults?
    A: Zero, because corporate profits this year will increase from $2 trillion to $10 trillion, spinning off massive tax revenues for the government. The deficit will come down substantially in the future as a result. Keep expecting upwards surprises in profits and taxable revenues. That may be why the (TLT) is staying so high.
    Q: I need a customized LEAPS on a stock.
    A: We do those for our concierge customers. If you’re interested, then email Filomena at customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com.
    Q: What brand of shot did you get?
    A: Pfizer (PFE).
    Q: The Government is showing no sign of balancing a budget and the hole will only get deeper; what are your thoughts?
    A: I agree, and that’s why I'm short the (TLT). All we need is a taper to really get some juice under that trade; we really don’t need that much. Ten-year US Treasury yields are now around 1.30% and we only need the yield to get up to about 1.70% for us to make a maximum profit on our positions. One taper hint and it could get us up to those levels.
    Q: Why is Visa (V) dropping so much?
    A: Fear of being replaced by Bitcoin. This is the big thing dragging all three credit card companies down, including American Express (AXP) and master Card (MA). That's why I have not added a Visa position among my financials in this go around.
    Q: How can the Fed unwind their balance sheet and normalize interest rates to a historical average of 4-5%?
    A: Quite easily: quit buying bonds. They’re still buying $120 billion/month worth. Technology has accelerated with the pandemic and we all know this is highly deflationary. I expect the next peak in interest rates to be only 3% or 3.5%, not the 6% we saw in the last peak in interest rates in the 2000s. So yeah, bonds are going to go down but not back to 2000’s level.
    Q: Thoughts on the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shot?
    A: No thank you. If you get to choose, Moderna (MRNA) is now producing the best immunity data on a year-to-date basis if you’re starting out from scratch. Some people are mixing, they start out with Pfizer and then get Moderna. They get a worse reaction because the Moderna initial reaction shot sees the Pfizer vaccine as a new virus, so you may get a small flu as a result of that.
    Q: What is the put spread you’re recommending on the TLT?
    A: The May 2022 $150-$155 vertical put spread. That is the sweet spot now on the short side on (TLT) LEAPS. You should earn a 115% profit in eight months on this trade if interest rates remain unchanged or fall.
    Q: Do you expect the ProShares Ultra Short 20 year+ Treasury ETF (TBT) to make it to $20 this year?
    A: Yes, I do; $16 to $20 isn’t that much of a move. Remember, the (TBT) is a two times short ETF.
    Q: Are you recommending bank stocks?
    A: Yes, Morgan Stanley (MS) and JP Morgan (JPM) are two of the best. They will lead the yearend rally starting from here.
    Q: When do you expect the semiconductor shortage to end?
    A: End of next year, or maybe even 2023, because what all the analysts keep underestimating is that the end of shortages is based on companies getting the chips they want today. The actual issue is that companies are designing billions of chips into their products at an exponential rate, and what they’ll need in a year from now is far higher than most people realize. The semiconductor shortage is much more structural than people realize—that's my theory. They don’t throw up a $2 billion fab overnight. So, this will keep going on for a while and be a drag on economic growth.
    Q: Are you sure we won’t see $100 oil (USO)?
    A: With oil, you're never sure about anything, although I highly doubt it. We’d have to have monster economic growth in China to get oil up to $100 a barrel. Right now, China is going the other way.
    Q: What’s your view on the debt ceiling? Will it give us a good buying opportunity?
    A: Probably not, our good buying opportunity was yesterday or Monday. These debt crises are always one minute before midnight solutions. They always get solved. Never underestimate the ability of Congressmen to spend money in their own district. So, I don’t think that would create a stock market crash like it might have done 20 years ago.
    Q: What about Freeport McMoRan (FCX)?
    A: It’s taking a dip here because of a possible real estate crash in China, and of course China is the world’s largest buyer of copper for apartment construction. I’m kind of taking a break here on Freeport McMoRan and US Steel (X) until we learn a little more about the China situation. They did move to start a bailout today. Let’s see if that continues.
    Q: When will the airlines come back?
    A: They’ll come back when business travel returns, which I think could be next year. If you eliminate the virus completely, these things double easily. That's the bet you’re making. Let’s see if the covid boosters work, the childhood shots work, and then you can take another look at Delta (DAL) and Alaska (ALK).
    Q: If Bitcoin gains mass adoption, does that put banks out of business just like electric vehicles are making oil obsolete?
    A: No, not if the banks go into the Bitcoin business. And the banks actually have the cash, resources, and infrastructure to take over the Bitcoin area once the technology matures. And the corollary to that is that the oil industry is that the majors have the infrastructure, the manpower, and the capital to take over the alternative energy business if they choose to do so and oil goes to zero, which it eventually will. The proof of that is the largest investor in all the Silicon Valley energy startups are Saudi Arabian venture capital funds. They’re huge investors in solar here. If Saudi Arabia has a lot of oil, they have even more solar. Believe me, I’ve been there.
    Q: Will a lack of inventory and rising interest rates end the bidding wars on houses soon?
    A: Only if you consider 10 years soon. That is how long it will take for the sizes of different generations to come into balance, the Millennials (85 million) versus the Gen Xers (45 million). That’s when the housing bubble will end, but that won’t be for another decade. We still have a structural shortage of new home construction (about 5 million units a year) because all the home builders who went bust in the financial crisis in 2008/2009 and never came back—all of that new construction is still missing. And the surviving ones haven’t increased production to meet that shortfall because they want to manage their risk. Eventually, they will and that probably will be the next top, but that’s really 2030 type business.
    Q: What about Federal Express (FDX)?
    A: Labor shortages. It's hitting (UPS), (FDX), the Post Office, and DHL too—all the couriers.
    Q: When do you think gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) rise back to 2,000?
    A: I am avoiding gold and silver as long as Bitcoin has buyers. The action in Bitcoin is 10x the movement you get in gold and that’s attracted all the speculative capital in the market, draining all interest from gold, which hit a new six-month low just last week.
    Q: What’s your buy target for Apple (AAPL)?
    A: I would say if you can get it at $135, that would be a gift. We did get close to $140 at the lows this week; that’s when you start nibbling, and then you double up again at $135. I doubt Apple is going down more than 10% in this cycle. There are too many people still trying to get into it. And they’re still the largest buyer of stock in the world. They only buy one stock, their own.
    Q: I never got any IPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) alerts.
    A: That's because we never sent any out. (VIX) has become an incredibly difficult game to play, accumulating positions for months and then trying to get out on a one-day spike that lasts a few minutes. The insiders have too much of a house advantage here, who only play from the short side. There are too many better fish to fry.
    Q: What about the Apple electric vehicle?
    A: I’ll believe it when I see it; I've been hearing about this for something like seven years. My guess is that Apple is more likely to supply consoles and parts to other EV makers and help them get into the game with software and so on. I think that will be Apple's role in all of this.
    Q: How much has China Evergrande Group stock fallen?
    A: It’s a really illiquid stock in China so we never got involved in it. I think it’s down more than half. Even the professional short-sellers like Jim Chanos and Kyle Bass, have been targeting that stock for 10 years are now screaming they’re vindicated. Of course, they lost fortunes in the meantime. So, I'll pass on that one.
    Q: What about stop losses on LEAPS trades?
    A: I don’t really run LEAPS portfolios or issue stop losses. The idea is to run these into expiration, and we’ve never had one expire out of the money, although I may break that record if TLT doesn’t turn around in the next three months.
    Q: How would autonomous trucking impact rail transportation?
    A: They’re two totally different things. Trucking companies like Yellow Corporation (YELL) carry smaller cargo for local deliveries or small long-distance deliveries. 7Some 70% of all railroad traffic is coal going to China, and the rest is bulk commodities like wood chips, iron ore, etc. Trucks don’t carry any of that, so they’re totally separate businesses. But, if we went totally autonomous on trucking, it would make all the main trucker companies massively profitable, as they get rid of their drivers. Right now, every trucking company in the US has a driver shortage.
    Q: United Airlines (UAL) pilots are now ordered to get vaccinated.
    A: I think within months to hold a job anywhere in the US, you will have to get vaccinated. They do not want you in the office without a vaccination. Jobs are not worth risking lives, and we hit 2,000 deaths again yesterday. The corporations are taking the lead, not the government. The exception will be the politically motivated companies, like the My Pillow Guy; I doubt they'll ever require vaccinations at My Pillow. And there are a few other companies such as Hobby Lobby that are also anti-vaxers. But all public transport companies, hospitals, etc., are going to say get vaccinated or get out—it’s very simple.
    Q: Should I buy Berkshire (BRKB) here?
    A: Yes, it’s a great entry point, even if you can't get my price. Go higher in the strikes or go farther out in maturity.
    Q: Is copper metal (CPER) a buy here?
    A: Probably long term, but short term will be subject to the whims of the Chinese real estate crisis if there is one.
    Q: Won’t Natural Gas (UNG) outperform in the power grid since all EVs must be charged?

    A: Not if the grid is 100% electric. Natural gas still has carbon in it, although only half as much as oil or gasoline. I think even natural gas eventually gets phased out because you can expect solar panels to improve by 80% over the next ten years. At that point, any other energy source won’t be able to compete—oil, natural gas, you name it. And that is why you don’t see any long-term money going into carbon energy sources.

    Q: Iron ore has just gone from $200 to $100, why are you bullish?
    A: Yes, Because it has just gone from $200 to $100. Eventually, China recovers, despite a short-term financial and housing crisis. Buy low, sell high—that’s my revolutionary new strategy.
    Q: What are your thoughts on Bitcoin vs Ethereum?
    A: I think Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin because it has a more modern technology. It’s only six years old, vs 12 years for Bitcoin. It’s also more efficient, using less energy in its production. In fact, we did get a double in Ethereum in August as opposed to only a 50% move in Bitcoin.
    Q: Do you have any concerns on holding the financials through earnings in October?
    A: No, I think the results will be fantastic, and I want to be long going into those.
    Q: What does the current situation with China mean for Alibaba (BABA)?
    A: Keep your stocks, you’ve already taken the hit—down 53%. The next surprise is that China quits beating up on capitalism and these things will all recover bigtime. However, any options you may have could expire before that happens. So, keep the stocks, get rid of the options, salvage whatever time value you can, and then wait for China to start doing the right thing.

    Q: What are the best solar stocks?
    A: First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR), which have both done great.
    Q: If bonds are a no-no, and governments are getting more indebted than ever, who will buy them?
    A: Governments. The only buyers of bonds now are non-economic buyers. Those would be governments, central banks, and banks who are required by law to own certain amounts of bonds to meet regulatory capital requirements. No individual in their right mind is buying any bonds here at all, nor is any financial advisor recommending them.
    To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.
    Good Luck and Stay Healthy.

    John Thomas
    CEO & Publisher
    The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader








    Quote of the Day?Bull markets go everywhere from 1-2 years to five years after the Fed begins tightening. We've got a long way to go before we have to worry about bonds competing against stocks,? said Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of Business


    This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
    The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
    For full disclosures click here at:

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

    The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
    and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
    are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
    The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C)
    is protected by the United States Copyright Office


    Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.



    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #1633  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,004
    Semana Tres NFL entreténimiento.

    TAMPA BAY -1
    SD+7
    ATL / NYG Under 48
    Washington / Buffalo Under 46

    
    Read in Browser
    Top News
    Yield signs
    Shutterstock
    The markets are no strangers to delayed reactions as investors digest many different influences on a post-pandemic economy. And one arrived in the bond market in earnest yesterday. Treasury yields surged back to levels last seen in the middle of the summer. After taking the Fed's hawkish tilt, telegraphing tapering and pulling forward rate liftoff expectations on the dot plot, pretty much in stride on Wednesday, traders went the other way yesterday.

    The curve, as measured by the gap between the 2-year Treasury and the 10-year, had flattened after Fed chief Jay Powell's press conference, with the gap narrowing about 4 basis points. Yesterday saw steepening, with the gap jumping more than 10 basis points. It now stands around 117 basis points. The 10-year yield saw its biggest one-day move since February, pushing above 1.4% for the first time since early July. It's seen a ceiling of about 1.8% this year.

    "Take a step back and just think about how low yields are even relative to where we were in the first quarter of this year," Zachary Griffiths, Wells Fargo macro strategist, told Reuters. "We do have very high inflation, high economic growth forecasts and it's really been kind of hard to justify where yields have been up to this point."

    The 30-year Treasury yield surged more than 13 basis points for its biggest one-day move since March 2020 when the Fed announced QE round one. (NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT) Real yields, the difference between nominal yields and inflation, were a driver of the move, with the 10-year TIPS now at -0.9%. (NYSEARCA:TIP). That puts the 10-year breakeven inflation expectation at 2.33%, around the lowest they've been since the highs in May.

    LPL Financial's Ryan Detrick says the 10-year yield could break out of its range this week, with today's trading crucial to the weekly chart. It's "on the verge of moving higher," he says.

    Delayed Reaction: The run-up in yields didn't really start until just before stocks opened on Thursday, underscoring the argument that investors should be wary of Fed-day moves. A lot of short and long positions are unwound in a very short space of time right after the FOMC statement is released. But by the next day, the market began to look at a global landscape where central banks, the ECB excluded, are removing historically high accommodation.

    "A hawkish Fed meeting, with the dots increasing and the end of QE potentially accelerated, didn’t quite have the ability to move markets but the global dam finally broke yesterday with Norway being the highest profile developed country to raise rates this cycle (expected), but more importantly a Bank of England meeting that saw the market reappraise rate hikes," Deutsche Bank's Paul Reid writes in a note. In addition, as bond prices fell, sell stops were triggered, adding to the technical impact of the move.

    Stocks holding up: Even with the pressure higher yields puts on megacaps and other stocks with high valuations that have underpinned the stock market, the major averages closed higher thanks to reflation plays. The S&P 500 (SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY) is now in positive territory for the week and closed above its 50-day moving average, providing some support for today's trading. Equity investors appear to be looking at the Fed moves as a sign of confidence in the recovery and a commitment to combat inflation.

    “While we are far from the end of QE and near-zero rates, the tide seems to be beginning to change," Anu Gaggar, global investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, told Bloomberg. "So far, the market had welcomed bad news as good news, but a market reacting to signs of an economy able to stand on its own without the monetary policy crutches is a refreshing change.” (2 comments)


    Earnings
    NIKE trips
    NIKE (NYSE:NKE) shares are down premarket after the company's fifth consecutive earnings beat. Revenue for the quarter ended Aug 31, 2021, was slightly below expectations at $12.2B (+16% Y/Y), missing by $220M, and down $100M sequentially due to global supply chain issues and the Vietnam lockdown.

    The company reports that its owned physical retail stores have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, growing 24% Y/Y. Digital sales were up 25%, led by a 43% increase in North America. Gross margin expanded 170 bps from last year and 70 bps from the prior quarter to 46.5%, driven by NIKE Direct business margin expansion and fewer promotions, offset by higher freight costs. (13 comments)


    Tech
    iFootball
    The NFL is leaning toward Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) as the new home for the premium Sunday Ticket programming package, The Athletic reports. That's a report contrary to conventional wisdom, which points to Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) putting in a strong bid for the out-of-market games, or ESPN (NYSE:DIS) taking it on.

    And that may be due to changes the league might like to see from the traditional one-price, all-the-games menu. Apple is reportedly considering allowing fans to pay for just one team's out-of-market games - or even individual games a la carte.

    There's still a while to go in negotiations, but one thing that seems clear is that DIRECTV (recently divested by AT&T (NYSE:T), which maintains an interest) won't keep the Sunday Ticket rights it's held for decades.
    (80 comments)


    Industrials
    China plane demand
    Boeing (NYSE:BA) slightly raises the 20-year forecast for China's airline market, forecasting the country will need 8,700 new aircraft valued at $1.47T by 2040 to meet rising air travel demand. In its annual commercial market outlook, Boeing notes the Chinese market's resilience during COVID-19 and estimates the market opportunity for commercial aviation services in the region at nearly $1.8T.

    China's economic fundamentals and a middle-income demographic that is expected to double in two decades underpin the anticipated increase in air travel, Boeing says. (34 comments)


    Trending
    Buybacks rebounding
    "Despite remaining cautious with their buyback expenditures," S&P 500 companies' stock buybacks for Q2 rose 11.6% Q/Q to $198.8B, up 124.3% from the year-ago period, S&P Dow Jones Indices says. Buybacks are 11% off the all-time high of $223B set in Q4 2018. (18 comments)

    Cryptocurrency
    China crypto crackdown
    China's crackdown on cryptos is escalating, with the People's Bank of China taking aim at transactions and Beijing making more moves to curb mining, Bloomberg reports. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is down 1.7% and Ethereum (ETH-USD) falling 6%. (2 comments)

    Today's Markets
    In Asia, Japan +2.1%. Hong Kong -1.5%. China -0.80%. India +0.30%.
    In Europe, at midday, London -0.16%. Paris -0.72%. Frankfurt -0.51%.
    Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.11%. S&P -0.23%. Nasdaq -0.40%. Crude +0.31% at $73.53. Gold +0.33% at $1756. Bitcoin +1.4% at $44493.
    Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.42%

    Today's Economic Calendar
    8:45 Fed's Mester: “Bouncing Back in the Post-Pandemic Economy”
    10:00 New Home Sales
    10:00 Jerome Powell: “Fed Listens: Perspective on the Pandemic Recovery”
    10:00 Fed’s Bowman: “Fed Listens: Perspective on the Pandemic Recovery”
    10:00 Fed’s Clarida: “Fed Listens: Perspective on the Pandemic Recovery”
    10:00 Fed’s George: U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
    12:00 PM Fed’s Bostic: “From Policy to Progress: Partnering to Create Equitable Community Development”
    1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

    Companies reporting earnings today »

    What else is happening...
    Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) to add Bitcoin payments in its mobile app.

    Costco (NASDAQ:COST) reports double-digit sales growth in all segments.

    Federal agency calls for more regulation of Texas power grid, natural gas.

    COVID-19 test maker Cue Health (NASDAQ:HLTH) prices 12.5M-share IPO at $16.

    Brent crude (CO1:COM) settles near three-year high; WTI (CL1:COM) best since July.

    HIVE Blockchain Technologies (NASDAQ:HIVE) reports full year results.

    Seeking More
    Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

    Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.


    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #1634  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,004

    September 25, 2021

    Good morning. The construction industry has hundreds of thousands of unfilled jobs — and it is likely to have more if President Biden’s infrastructure bill passes. In today’s newsletter, we examine an often overlooked issue in the industry that may prevent those jobs from getting filled — and ways to solve it.

    (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


    Michael Reynolds/EPA, via Shutterstock


    To fill jobs, expand the labor pool

    By Patrick Sisson

    The Biden administration estimates that if the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill passes, it could add two million jobs per year over a decade.

    But those jobs, mostly in construction, may be difficult to fill in an industry that is already experiencing labor shortages, with 321,000 unfilled jobs in July.

    One way some industry leaders see to address the scarcity of skilled workers? Diversify the industry.

    Nearly 90 percent of the 10.8 million people employed by the construction industry are white, and just 11 percent are women, according to the Department of Labor. Despite efforts in recent decades to make the industry more inclusive, and some progress, a long history of exclusionary hiring practices and informal recruitment networks has blocked some groups from opportunities.

    If the infrastructure bill passes, the industry could be short a million and a half to two million workers by 2025, estimates Boyd Worsham, the president of the National Center for Construction Education and Research. That would create an immediate challenge, but also an opportunity to hire from communities that the industry has ignored.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    “Traditionally, heavy industries have not been diverse,” said Kevin DeGood, director of infrastructure policy at the liberal Center for American Progress. “The benefits for labor should flow to those communities where the work is going to be done and where jobs traditionally haven’t been.”

    The Biden administration’s initial infrastructure proposal earmarked $100 billion for new training programs, including $12 billion specifically for workers from underserved communities. (While this funding was cut from the infrastructure bill, President Biden’s $3.5 trillion social policy package does include work force training.) And some industry leaders who are seeking to plug existing talent shortages are already focusing on broadening recruitment.

    “We need diversity because it improves the outcome,” Mr. Worsham said. “Different life experiences and different ways of looking at things can apply to the work.”

    Initiatives in Maryland, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia and elsewhere show the promise of focusing on underrepresented groups — for both the construction industry and for local communities.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    In Baltimore, a pre-apprenticeship program called Project JumpStart has trained more than 800 participants, most of them formerly incarcerated, for construction jobs. Local building contractors started the program 15 years ago, when Johns Hopkins University sought to build a biotech campus in a predominantly Black neighborhood and employ residents during construction. It has placed 75 percent of its graduates in jobs.

    Mike Henderson, who runs JumpStart and has testified in Congress about its success, said it had been a meaningful way to expand the work force, create middle-class jobs and dispel hurtful stereotypes about his hometown.

    “Remember the Freddie Gray riots?” said Mr. Henderson, a chapter president of the Associated Builders and Contractors. “Baltimore was taking an incredible P.R. hit. The narrative was that nobody really wanted to work, that people were happy to protest. We knew that wasn’t true.”

    Pushing past stereotypes has also been a driving factor for an Associated Builders and Contractors program that trains prisoners at the Louisiana State Penitentiary, known as Angola, in carpentry and electrical work.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    “When they come out of their incarceration period, they can fully re-enter society, and can better define their own long-term employment prospects,” said the local chapter president, David Helveston. About 1,400 prisoners have completed the program since it started in 2010.

    Other programs, such as Power UP in Birmingham, Ala., seek to encourage, educate and place women in construction trades. Kathleen Culhane, president of Nontraditional Employment for Women, or NEW, which has been training women for jobs in construction and other trades since 1978, said the organization’s partners in trade unions now set aside 15 percent of their job slots for NEW graduates. (It was 10 percent about five years ago.)

    In the early ’80s, women could show up at a construction site, tools in hand, and wouldn’t be able to find work, Ms. Culhane said. Despite progress, she said, there’s still work to be done, especially in providing access for women of color to these “life-sustaining, family-sustaining careers.” Women still fill just 3 percent of “hands on tools” jobs (as opposed to management and administrative jobs) in the construction industry, according to NEW.

    To improve those disparities, other programs target a younger audience, when stereotypes about who can work in construction may be less entrenched. The Construction Education Foundation of Georgia, founded in 1993, shares construction skills and training with around 20,000 students in 175 elementary and secondary schools statewide. In districts that fully adopt the program, students encounter construction education from second grade on, including themed lesson plans in math and science classes, and even apprenticeship programs in high school to help students graduate into the field with a job.

    “We’re building bridges between industry and education, and all genders and ethnicities are able to try this out,” said Zach Fields, vice president of the foundation.

    Actively opening the construction industry to a broader range of people would increase the pool of recruits, allowing for more opportunities to train them to assume in-demand positions. But it wouldn’t be a silver bullet. Better wages, labor standards and benefits would also help attract more workers to long-term careers in the skilled trades, especially when wages are rising for jobs that require less training.

    Andrew Garin, an economics professor at the University of Illinois, said the overall economic data didn’t point to a shortage of workers building infrastructure as much as a shortage of workers at the going rate.

    “Sure, I could say there’s a shortage of affordable Ferraris,” he said, adding that policymakers should understand that the industry needs training programs with better incentives.

    Mr. DeGood believes that if the final social policy bill does not include money for training, Congress will eventually appropriate more funding. It will become obvious, he said, that you can’t “snap your fingers and create a new labor force.”


    Want to share The New York Times with your friends and family? Invite them to enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.


    What do you think? Let us know: dealbook@nytimes.com.



    Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
    Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
    Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
    Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel
    Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
    Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
    Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs


    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #1635  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,004
    
    Read in Browser
    Top News
    Shutterstock
    Stocks flip-flopped between gains and losses Friday to end a volatile week on Wall Street, as investors appeared content to consolidate positions after worries over China Evergrande and a slowing global economy prompted traders to pull $28.6 billion from U.S. equity funds over the first three days of the week, the most since February 2018. But stocks then staged a two-day rally after the Federal Reserve signaled no removal of its easy money policy, at least for now. Tech stocks trailed Friday after a crackdown on bitcoin by China overnight hurt sentiment in the sector, but financial stocks rose as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest since July. For the week, the Dow gained 0.6% and the S&P 500 added 0.5% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished flat.

    Stocks
    China property crisis
    The possibility of China property company Evergrande collapsing and overall worries about China's crackdown on indebted firms took a toll on Hong Kong shares. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell more than 3% on Monday with China and Japan closed for a holiday. The benchmark index hit an 11-month low, with the index tracking construction and property off more than 6%. Evergrande (OTCPK:EGRNF)(OTCPK:EGRNY) sunk more than 11% and has fallen more than 80% this year as it struggles to meet debt payments. The company has more than $300B in debt and defaulted on an interest payment on a bond later in the week.

    Sponsored By Yieldstreet
    The Real Estate Market is Hot. Get Your Piece of the Action.
    Bidding well above asking price before even inspecting a home is becoming all too popular. Investing in real estate the old fashioned way is pricing out everyday people. Enter Yieldstreet.
    Yieldstreet is here to help put your savings to work, allowing you to invest in real estate debt and equity without needing to take out a new mortgage. Investment minimums start at $10k, allowing you to leverage the real estate market to generate passive returns.

    • Less than 8.5% of opportunities reviewed this year have passed Yieldstreet’s due diligence process to be offered in the Yieldstreet marketplace.
    • Yieldstreet’s investors have already allocated over $500M in their real estate asset class to date.

    Here’s The Kicker: Yieldstreet offers target annual yields typically from 7% to 18%, allowing you to shift into leisure mode while your money is positioned to work overtime.
    Learn more about how Yieldstreet can start your passive income journey today.

    Energy
    Permian purchase
    ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) will become the second-largest oil and gas producer in the Lower 48 U.S. states following its $9.5B acquisition of Shell's assets in the Permian Basin, as the pecking order is reshuffled among top U.S. shale drillers. Adding an estimated 200K boe/day will put Conoco within striking distance of leader Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), which is expected to produce about 1M boe/day from the Lower 48 this year. Conoco's deal will propel it past Chevron (NYSE:CVX), EQT Corp. (NYSE:EQT), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) and EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), according to consulting firm Rystad Energy.

    Central Banking
    Fed evolution
    The Federal Reserve avoided a shock to equities in an already weak September, but will investors remain comfortable with the hawkish tilt? As expected from its decision yesterday, members pulled forward rate-hike expectations on the dot plot. And Fed chief Jay Powell telegraphed a tapering announcement at the next meeting in November. Tapering is expected to end around mid-2022 and liftoff could occur after that, although 2023 still seems the most likely timing for the start of rate hikes for now.

    "What is clear is that inflation is likely to be the determining factor for liftoff and the pace of rate hikes," Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzzetti writes in a note. "If inflation is at or below the Fed's current forecast next year of 2.3% core PCE, liftoff is likely to come in 2023, consistent with our view. However, if inflation proves to be higher with inflation expectations continuing to rise, the first rate increase could well migrate into 2022." Scott Ruesterholz, portfolio manager at Insight Investment, is expecting a gradual liftoff and notes the Fed "is expecting inflation to run above 2% through 2024 even as they keep rates below their neutral 2.5% estimate." "That shows how committed they are to fostering as strong of a labor market recovery as possible." But was also the discussion and debate about asset purchases and how to communicate a taper within the FOMC and the markets a waste of energy?


    Consumer
    Nike and peers fall
    NIKE (NYSE:NKE) shares fell hard despite the company's fifth consecutive earnings beat. Revenue for the quarter ended Aug 31, 2021, was slightly below expectations at $12.2B (+16% Y/Y), missing by $220M, and down $100M sequentially due to global supply chain issues and the Vietnam lockdown. The company reports that its owned physical retail stores have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, growing 24% Y/Y. Digital sales were up 25%, led by a 43% increase in North America. Gross margin expanded 170 bps from last year and 70 bps from the prior quarter to 46.5%, driven by NIKE Direct business margin expansion and fewer promotions, offset by higher freight costs. Investors reacted to softer guidance than anticipated from Nike and concerns over the impact of inventory all the way into spring from the supply chain disruption. Peers Adidas (OTCQX:ADDYY), Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) and JD Sports (OTCPK:JDSPY) also fell after the Nike numbers dropped.

    U.S. Indices
    Dow +0.6% to 34,798. S&P 500 +0.5% to 4,455. Nasdaq +0.% to 15,048. Russell 2000 +0.8% to 2,254. CBOE Volatility Index -14.7%to 17.75.

    S&P 500 Sectors
    Consumer Staples -0.3%. Utilities -1.2%. Financials +2.2%. Telecom -0.7%. Healthcare -0.4%. Industrials +0.8%. Information Technology +1.%. Materials +0.1%. Energy +4.7%. Consumer Discretionary +0.3%.

    World Indices
    London +1.3% to 7,051. France +1.% to 6,638. Germany +0.3% to 15,532. Japan -0.8% to 30,249. China 0.% to 3,613. Hong Kong -2.9% to 24,192. India +1.8% to 60,048.

    Commodities and Bonds
    Crude Oil WTI +2.8% to $73.98/bbl. Gold -0.1% to $1,750.4/oz. Natural Gas +1.4% to 5.174. Ten-Year Treasury Yield -0.6% to 132.09.

    Forex and Cryptos
    EUR/USD -0.05%. USD/JPY +0.71%. GBP/USD -0.49%. Bitcoin -11.8%. Litecoin -15.1%. Ethereum -15.2%. Ripple -11.9%.

    Top Stock Gainers
    Zivo Bioscience (NASDAQ:ZIVO) +95%. Marin Software Inc (NASDAQ:MRIN) +80%. Aerocentury Corp (NYSE:ACY) +66%. Medirom Healthcare Technologies Inc ADR (NASDAQ:MRM) +58%. Ensysce Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:ENSC) +52%.

    Top Stock Losers
    Eargo Inc (NASDAQ:EAR) -68%. Innovage Holding Corp (NASDAQ:INNV) -49%. Nuvalent Inc Cl A (NASDAQ:NUVL) -37%. Beyondspring Inc (NASDAQ:BYSI) -33%. China Liberal Education Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:CLEU) -32%.

    Where will the markets be headed next week? Current trends and ideas? Add your thoughts to the comments section.

    Seeking More
    Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

    Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.


    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •