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Thread: Intersting thoughts

  1. #1676  
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    October 13, 2021

    Good morning. JPMorgan Chase just kicked off earnings season by beating expectations for quarterly profits, setting an optimistic tone as other companies prepare to open their books. Can they follow suit? (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


    Getting vaccinated in Texas, where mandates are contentious.Matthew Busch for The New York Times


    Vaccine politics

    President Biden’s push for large employers to mandate coronavirus vaccinations took another step toward becoming official yesterday: OSHA submitted the initial text of its emergency temporary standard to the Office of Management and Budget. From there, it still needs to go through an interagency review process, which could take weeks. Many companies say they have been waiting for the official OSHA standard to come out before announcing vaccine mandates, despite pressure from the White House to act.

    In the meantime, vaccine mandates are facing growing resistance in states whose leaders oppose such requirements and other pandemic restrictions. On Monday, Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas issued an executive order banning private employers from mandating coronavirus vaccines. Yesterday in Florida, the state’s health department fined Leon County, which encompasses Tallahassee, for violating a state ban on “vaccine passports.”

    State-level complications come as companies juggle two sets of federal mandates: the rule requiring all federal contractors to be fully vaccinated by Dec. 8 — the text of which has already been released — and the rule requiring all companies with more than 100 workers to be fully vaccinated or submit to weekly testing, which OSHA has now submitted for approval.


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    Legal experts say that state actions do not override Biden’s order. “Texas has just set itself up for a grand political show, but not a potentially legally sound initiative to stop all vaccine mandates,” James Hodge, the director of the Center for Public Health Law and Policy at Arizona State University, told The Times. That said, for companies wary of vaccine mandates, perhaps because they fear that workers may quit, the Texas order could provide cover to delay an announcement.

    Several big companies said they would defy the Texas order, including American Airlines and Southwest Airlines, which are based in the state. Boeing, which has offices in Texas, announced a vaccine mandate yesterday. A spokesperson for Shell, which requires offshore workers in the Gulf of Mexico to be vaccinated by January, told DealBook the company was evaluating the governor’s order.

    “The question for any business leader is: What do you want to do to save more lives in your companies?” Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said yesterday at a briefing, emphasizing the Biden administration’s message that vaccine mandates are good for business. “Our intention is to implement and continue to work to implement these requirements across the country,” she said, “including in the states where there are attempts to oppose them.”

    HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

    The U.S. opens its borders to Mexico and Canada. Fully vaccinated travelers will be allowed to cross America’s land borders starting in November. The lifting of the ban, imposed in March 2020, will effectively mark the reopening of the United States to tourism, signaling a new phase in the recovery.


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    Policymakers nervously watch inflation data. A key reading on consumer prices today is expected to show that inflation remains historically high, a worry for officials at the Fed and the White House.

    The global chip shortage takes a bite out of Apple. The tech giant’s production targets for the new iPhone 13 could fall short by as many as 10 million units, according to Bloomberg. Analysts warn that long lead times for semiconductors could persist well into 2022.

    A big deal in the world of corporate comms. WPP’s Finsbury Glover Hering is buying Sard Verbinnen, combining two of the most well-known M.&A. and crisis communications firms. The new firm will have roughly 1,000 employees and $330 million in revenue. Employees will own about 40 percent of the group, while Sard’s significant minority investor, Golden Gate Capital, will retain a stake.

    William Shatner heads to space. The actor famous for playing Captain Kirk on “Star Trek” will be a passenger on the second flight by Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’s space tourism company. Shatner, 90, who has also recorded 10 albums, said he planned to release a song about his trip.


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    That ’70s shadow

    As the pandemic’s initial economic shock recedes, many worry that the next stage of the recovery could be messy. This week, both the I.M.F. and Goldman Sachs cut their estimates of this year’s economic growth, with the persistence of the coronavirus and supply chain disruptions weighing on the outlook.

    The biggest worry is a recovery-killing bout of stagflation — the toxic mix of rising prices and sluggish growth that bedeviled the U.S. in the second half of the 1970s, The Times’s Matt Phillips reports. Indeed, some of what’s happening today seems like a flashback:

    • Prices are rising at their fastest rate in decades, and not abating like many thought they would.
    • Energy prices have recently surged, as oil-producing countries restrict supplies. “Historically, stagflation has often been accompanied by oil shocks,” said Jill Carey Hall, a stock market analyst at BofA Securities.
    • September’s disappointing job growth, the second month in a row that badly missed expectations, suggests that a slowdown may have already started.


    But the market doesn’t appear to be pricing in a 1970s rerun. Stocks have generally traded at lower valuations during times of rising inflation, like in the latter half of the 1970s. Today, the market’s average price-to-earnings ratio is not far off the levels reached at the height of dot-com mania. Keeping that up relies on continued strong earnings growth. Companies like FedEx, Nike, CarMax and Bed Bath & Beyond saw their shares fall in recent weeks after releasing disappointing quarterly reports.

    “People are going to be further disappointed,” said Mike Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. “Even if the economy is OK, it may not translate into the kinds of earnings that people are expecting.”


    “You see oil majors feeling the heat. But private equity is quietly picking up the dregs, perpetuating operations of the least desirable assets.”

    — Alyssa Giachino of the Private Equity Stakeholder Project, a nonprofit behind a new report that shows private equity firms are among the biggest investors in fossil fuels, despite many of the firms trumpeting their sustainable investments.


    Exclusive: SoftBank bets on Vuori

    SoftBank is investing $400 million in the activewear company Vuori, at a valuation of about $4 billion. The move into retail is noteworthy for SoftBank, which is known largely for investing in tech companies. The heady valuation reflects investors’ enthusiasm for direct-to-consumer brands.

    The athleisure market got a major boost during the pandemic, as consumers bought comfortable clothes during lockdowns. Vuori competes with some formidable rivals in this market, including Lululemon, Outdoor Voices and Sweaty Betty. “One of the things that sets us apart is authenticity with a male demographic,” said Joe Kudla, Vuori’s C.E.O. The company was founded in 2015 and reached profitability two years later, he said.

    Like other consumer start-ups that were born digital, Vuori is now expanding offline: It has nine retail stores, accounting for about 10 percent of sales. Over the next five years, it’s aiming for around 100 stores.

    SoftBank’s investment came from a mutual connection. Kudla was introduced to Nagraj Kashyap, a managing partner at SoftBank Investment Advisers, through one of the company’s board members. SoftBank has experience with e-commerce, with investments in companies like Coupang. SoftBank, which invested in the start-up via its Vision Fund 2, saw Vuori as having a “tech mode and a brand mode going forward,” Kashyap said. Vuori is looking to grow in Western Europe and Asia, where Softbank’s connections could help.



    Digital design for investors

    Our online lives generate loads of data that companies use to nudge us toward doing things. But a prompt to listen to songs that you might like is different from pushing you to invest in a meme-stock frenzy. When it comes to algorithms and recommendation engines, it’s fair to expect more from a finance app than a music program, the S.E.C. chairman Gary Gensler argued in a speech yesterday.

    “When do these design elements and psychological nudges cross the line and become recommendations?” he asked. The answer “might change the nature of the platform’s obligations under the securities laws,” he said, highlighting the tension that finance firms face in harnessing data collected from users. A finance app’s “legal duties may conflict with such platforms’ ability to optimize for their own revenue,” Gensler said.

    This isn’t a hypothetical debate. The S.E.C. recently requested comment on the use of new technologies by financial industry firms. In response, the University of Miami School of Law’s Investor Rights Clinic reported “a sharp increase” in clients who suffered losses on digital platforms using gamification, predictive data analytics and behavioral prompts. People “express confusion as to the reason their trusted institution would promote high-risk strategies,” it said.

    What does Robinhood think? The trading app with more than 20 million customer accounts noted in its response to the S.E.C. that a majority of its users are new to investing. “We believe that this is unequivocally a good thing,” the company wrote, arguing that its digital features help promote financial literacy and don’t explicitly recommend to buying or selling securities. In March, it removed a controversial digital confetti feature that was criticized for gamifying trading.

    Gensler and Robinhood are on the same page, in part. The regulator said new technologies have broadened access to the markets and brought “a lot of good.” But Gensler said that updates to the commission’s rules may be needed to address the nature of digital nudges on trading platforms.


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    THE SPEED READ

    Deals

    • A consortium led by K.K.R. is nearing a $1.1 billion deal to acquire a song catalog from the indie music company Kobalt, which includes rights to hits by Lorde and The Weeknd. (FT)
    • The Trump Organization is in advanced discussions to sell its Washington, D.C., hotel to CGI Merchant Group, whose partners include the retired baseball star Alex Rodriguez. (WSJ)
    • Coinbase is starting a marketplace for nonfungible tokens and partnering with United Masters, a music distributor, to offer artists the option to be paid in cryptocurrency. (CNBC, Insider)

    Policy

    • BlackRock’s Larry Fink writes: “Rich Countries Must Bear the Cost if We Can Ever Hope to Achieve a Net-Zero World.” (Times Opinion)
    • The first electronic cigarette has been authorized for sale in the U.S. (NYT)
    • The House gave final approval to legislation that would raise the debt ceiling until early December. (NYT)
    • The S.E.C. is investigating whether banks are allowing employees to communicate outside of monitored channels. (Reuters)

    Best of the rest

    • Can Jane Fraser fix Citigroup? (Bloomberg Businessweek)
    • “Hundreds of Police Officers Have Died From Covid. Vaccines Remain a Hard Sell.” (NYT)
    • These are the 50 American restaurants that The Times’s food desk is most excited about. (NYT)
    • How Slack has upended the workplace. (The Atlantic)
    • Hasbro’s longtime C.E.O. Brian Goldner, who led a transformation of the toy company, has died at 58, days after stepping down for health reasons. (NYT)


    Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

    Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

    We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.




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  2. #1677  
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    Top News
    Ready, set, earnings!
    Shutterstock
    Keep an eye on loan growth at JPMorgan (JPM) as the U.S. bank kicks off the Q3 earnings season today. Supply chain problems could help boost the multiple as companies need more revolvers to increase their working capital. Credit quality will also be in focus, as well as how an increasing amount of "buy now, pay later" options is affecting JPMorgan's credit card portfolio, and whether dealmaking boosted advisory fees for its investment bank.

    Key metrics: Analysts expect the bank to report a net interest margin of 1.64%, down from 1.82% a year ago, though it's hoping that number has seen the bottom given the rise in Treasury yields. At the beginning of the year, JPMorgan has also guided for $55B in net interest income for 2021, but on a Q2 earnings call, management cut that guidance to $52.5B.

    Fast forward to September... Marianne Lake, co-CEO of JPMorgan's consumer and community banking division, said at a conference that prepayment rates - while still elevated - are no longer growing like they were and that management expects the NII guidance of $52.5B to hold up. Lake also provided some guidance, saying that in the division's markets business, the bank expects revenue to decline ~10% from Q2 and Y/Y, which is not a huge surprise because, at some point, activity had to normalize.

    Market movement: While trading on earnings announcements is a tricky play, consensus EPS and revenue estimates are $3.00 (+2.7% Y/Y) and $29.63B (+1.6% Y/Y), respectively. Over the last four quarters, JPMorgan has sold off immediately following earnings despite some strong numbers. For those looking for a good entry point, keep in mind that the stock is up 12% over the past quarter and usually finds its footing in the week or two after earnings.


    Data
    A lot to watch
    The major averages fell for the third straight session on Tuesday, and there is no shortage of "headwinds out there, especially as the threat of slower growth looms large," said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading at E*TRADE Financial. Starting today, traders will be "looking for any and all indications of guidance" as the Q3 earnings season kicks off. In terms of actual numbers, earnings growth is expected to climb about 30% Y/Y this quarter following a 96.3% expansion in Q2, according to Refinitiv.

    Not the only concern: The consumer inflation report for September will be released today at 8:30 a.m. ET. The figure has been coming in at over 5% since June (don't worry it's transitory) and the latest number is anticipated to flare up once again. Economists expect to see a rise of 0.3%, or a 5.3% annualized rate, but even excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI is still forecast to rise 0.3%, or 4% annualized.

    Meanwhile, the IMF is sounding the alarm on price pressures, saying the global economy is entering a phase of inflationary risk. It even called on central banks to be "very, very vigilant" and take early action on tightening policy should inflation prove persistent. The fund also trimmed its 2021 global economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 5.9% vs. its July forecast, citing the effect of supply disruptions in advanced economies and worsening pandemic dynamics in developing countries.

    Other data: Coming off the weak nonfarm-payrolls numbers on Friday, the Labor Department's latest JOLTS report yesterday showed that 4.3M workers quit their positions in August. The record pace (highest since December 2000) continues a trend seen throughout the year, with hotel, restaurant and retail employees quitting in droves. The FOMC will also release the minutes from its September meeting at 2 p.m. ET, giving broader clues about the timeline surrounding the central bank's tapering plans. (4 comments)


    Communicated
    Inflation: Between The Fed’s Rock And The Economy’s Hard Place
    While Chairman Powell continues to stall, the rise in the cost of goods is undercutting the administration’s hope for a continued robust economy. With no room for error, the Fed is now trapped as it tries to tame the inflation beast. This leaves your portfolio caught between a rock and a hard place. The good news is you have a chance to soften the blow and come out ahead by making some key moves today…Continue Reading
    Trending
    Coinbase NFT
    Diversifying beyond cryptocurrency, Coinbase Global (COIN) is moving into the non-fungible token space. It's aiming to create a peer-to-peer marketplace that's intended to make "minting, purchasing, showcasing, and discovering NFTs easier than ever," according to the company's blog. "Just as Coinbase helped millions of people access Bitcoin for the first time in an easy and trusted way - we want to do the same for the NFTs," noted Sanchan Saxena, VP of Product.

    What's an NFT again? It's a type of cryptocurrency - usually run on Ethereum blockchain - that's used to represent a unique asset and is valued as collectors' items. They are usually art, but can also be a meme, GIFs, songs, videos or items in video games. NFTs work like other speculative assets, where buyers hope that the value of it goes up, so it can be sold for a profit.

    Coinbase's marketplace will help artists maintain creative control through decentralized contracts and metadata transparency. While the firm didn't say when Coinbase NFT will start, users can join a waitlist for early access to the platform, which will initially support Ethereum-based ERC-721 and ERC-155 standards and "multichain support planned soon after." The offering could also offer a new revenue stream after Coinbase shelved crypto lending plans last month due to regulatory pressure.

    Stats: According to DappRadar, NFT sales exceeded $10B in the third quarter of 2021, marking a 704% increase from the previous quarter. (6 comments)



    Energy
    'Bumpy ride'
    Many questions have surfaced in recent weeks over the pace of the energy transition as a power crunch takes shape across the globe. While many arguments are covering specific policy details or green efforts, all appear to be in agreement that the world is not spending enough on future energy needs. Some of those risks were detailed in the new World Energy Outlook from the IEA, which advises governments on energy policy.

    Quote: "There is a looming risk of more turbulence for global energy markets," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "Spending on oil and natural gas has been depressed by price collapses in 2014-15 and again in 2020. As a result, it is geared towards a world of stagnant or even falling demand. If the supply side moves away from oil or gas before the world's consumers do, then the world could face periods of market tightness and volatility. Alternatively, if companies misread the speed of change and over-invest, then these assets risk under-performing or becoming stranded."

    "The energy transition is not being handled properly," OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo declared last week at the Energy Intelligence Forum. "And hence we are beginning to see the fallout." The fundamental problem has been the "hysteria" that has prompted a move away from fossil fuels, shrinking much-needed investment, even in developing countries. That being said, "we call on the leading polluters, the leading emitters" to pause and work on sustainable solutions when they gather for the November COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow, Scotland.

    Outlook: Oil prices are up more than 60% in 2021, while U.S. natural gas prices have more than doubled this year. "At the same time, spending on clean energy transitions is far below what would be required to meet future needs in a sustainable way," the IEA added in the report, advocating for annual spending on clean energy to triple to $4T by the end of the decade in order to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Emissions can drop by 40% using technologies that pay for themselves, according to the IEA, though the majority of the investment (nearly 70%) would have to come from private developers and Wall Street. This could also create "huge economic opportunities" for clean energy technologies such as wind turbines, solar panels, fuel cells, electrolyzers and a new era of batteries.


    In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong +0.2%. China +0.4%. India +0.8%.
    In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.7%.
    Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude -0.7% at $80.07. Gold +0.7% at $1770.70. Bitcoin -4.2% at $64610.
    Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.56%

    Today's Economic Calendar
    7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    8:30 Consumer Price Index
    10:00 Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations
    1:00 PM Results of $24B, 30-Year Note Auction
    2:00PM Treasury Statement
    2:00 PM FOMC Minutes
    3:30 PM Fed's Brainard Speech
    8:00 PM Fed's Bowman: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook

    Companies reporting earnings today »

    TOGETHER WITH
    What else is happening...
    Tobacco-flavored Vuse (NYSE:BTI) e-cigarette authorized by the FDA.

    Netflix's (NASDAQ:NFLX) Squid Game success leads Baird to boost price target.

    LG to reimburse General Motors (NYSE:GM) for majority of Bolt EV recall costs.

    Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) announces CEO death days after he took a medical leave.

    EU may expand probe into Nvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) $54B ARM (ARMHF) bid.

    Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) draws muted response from FDA for COVID booster shot.

    Boeing (NYSE:BA) to require COVID vaccinations for 125K U.S. employees.

    Report: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) set to cut iPhone 13 production due to chip shortages.

    Jack's back! Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) chairman makes appearance in Hong Kong.

    S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI), IHS Markit (NYSE:INFO) $44B deal to get EU antitrust approval?

    Seeking More
    Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

    Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.


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  3. #1678  
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    October 13, 2021
    Fiat Lux
    Featured Trade:
    (THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF ONLINE RETAILING),
    (SNAP), (GPRO), (APRN), (SFIX)


    The Brave New World of Online RetailingI was flying on first class flight on Virgin America from New York to San Francisco last year, and all I can say is that you meet the most interesting people in first class.

    The woman sitting next to me was dark-haired, rail-thin, elegantly dressed, and utterly gorgeous. She addressed the flight attendant in a heavy Italian accent.

    I hadn’t been to the former Roman empire since the summer, so I thought I would give my Italian a workout.

    What I learned was amazing and opened up nothing less than a peek into the future of retailing.

    I am always on the lookout for the next “big thing” than can generate a great Trade Alert, and suddenly here was a golden opportunity

    It turned out that the woman was a senior executive with the fashion house Prada, based in Milan. Why was a fashion executive flying to a city where the hoodie and torn designer jeans were the primary means of dress?

    She was flying halfway around the world to develop a relationship with Stitch Fix (SFIX), the hottest new concept in online apparel retail.

    The fact that major companies were flying people in from Europe to check out a small startup said a lot right there.

    The company’s business model is very simple, if not brave.

    Consumers fill out a personal profile that includes every conceivable measurement, preference, and lifestyle. A personal stylist is then assigned to you who mails you a monthly box of items they think you would like.

    For this service, you are charged a “stylist” fee of $20, which can then be applied as a credit towards any purchases.

    You simply buy the items that appeal and mail the rest back. An artificial intelligence-driven algorithm records your picks and returns and then predicts what you are most likely to buy next time.

    After several of these cycles, the algorithm knows what you like better than you do and will even mail you special offerings at a discount.

    Along the way, Stitch Fix will introduce you to styles and brands that you never would have thought of. In order words, it does all the thinking for you.

    The company has already clocked $1 billion in revenues in 2017 and is on an exponential growth trajectory.

    Stitch Fix boasts an operating gross margin of 44%, well in excess of traditional retailers like Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), The Gap (GPS), and JC Penny (JCP).

    Originally targeting Millennials, it quickly learned that its real market was with middle-aged professional women who don’t have time to shop.

    It is already marketing 700 brands and is working to establish its own brands where the real margins are.

    Some 95% of the firm’s employees are women.

    The recent history of tech IPOs has not been great ((SNAP), (GPRO), (APRN), etc.). However, given the current online retail explosion, I have great hopes for (SFIX).

    Just to have some fun, I filled out a profile but listed my age as 25. I can’t wait to see what they send me.

    Hopefully, I won’t blow up their algorithm.

    To place your first order with Stitchfix, please visit their website by clicking here.



    Quote of the Day“A man who is the master of patience is the master of everything else,” said George Saville, a professional soccer player.





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  4. #1679  
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    October 14, 2021

    Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


    The Port of Los Angeles will start operating around the clock to help ease supply issues, which have stoked inflation.Mike Blake/Reuters


    Prices and policy

    Consumer prices rose more than economists expected last month, new numbers show, on top of an already high August reading. While a jump in prices was expected as the economy recovered from the pandemic shock, persistently high inflation is complicating plans for both the Fed and the White House, who face pressure to act so that price gains don’t become a permanent fixture.

    Americans are paying more for dinner, fuel and housing, and wage gains, while decent, aren’t keeping up. Hopes that a spike in prices would quickly fade — that pandemic-induced inflation would be “transitory,” to use the economic lingo — are being challenged by rising prices for a wide range of items: Meat rose by nearly 13 percent in the year to September, gasoline was up 42 percent and rent rose by more than 3 percent (double the rate six months ago).


    What it means for the Fed: As the central bank prepares to remove emergency stimulus measures to support the economy, sustained inflation could force the Fed to move faster than it would like, before the labor market is fully healed. In newly released minutes from their latest policymaking meeting, Fed officials appear split, with “various” members arguing that interest rates should stay near zero for a couple of years, while “a number” said that rates would need to go up next year, with inflation most “likely to remain elevated in 2022 with risks to the upside.” A recent Fed survey suggests that consumer expectations for inflation are running at historic highs.


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    What it means for the White House: The tricky task of passing two enormous spending packages is made harder as opponents argue that the bills could worsen inflation. Fixing the supply chain snarls that are behind some of the price pressures has become a priority, with President Biden announcing yesterday that the Port of Los Angeles will operate around the clock and that major companies including FedEx, UPS and Walmart will expand their working hours. But it’s not clear how much those efforts can help because the blockages stretch up and down supply chains, from foreign harbors to American railyards and warehouses.

    The most visible policy effect of high inflation is on Social Security. The Social Security Administration said yesterday that it would raise benefits 5.9 percent in 2022, the biggest cost-of-living adjustment in the past 40 years. “You’re glad that you get a 5.9 percent increase,” said Nancy Altman, the president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group, “but it doesn’t feel like you’re getting 5.9 percent when all of your other costs are going up much higher.”

    HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

    Thousands of John Deere workers go on strike. Some 10,000 workers at the agriculture equipment maker’s facilities primarily in Iowa and Illinois went on strike early this morning after rejecting a contract proposal that union negotiators had reached with the company. As employers grapple with labor shortages, workers across the country appear more willing to strike, as at Kellogg and Nabisco.

    More big banks report bumper earnings. Bank of America, Morgan Stanleyand Wells Fargo beat expectations for their latest quarterly earnings. This follows a similar pattern at JPMorgan Chase, which reported yesterday, easing some worries about the strength of the economic recovery.


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    A study suggests that J&J vaccine recipients may fare better with a Moderna or Pfizer booster. The finding from a federal clinical trial, along with a mixed review from the F.D.A., is a blow to Johnson & Johnson’s case for approving a booster of its single-dose coronavirus vaccine. F.D.A. advisers meet today and tomorrow to decide on allowing J&J and Moderna to offer booster shots.

    The S.E.C. is sued for its stance on proxy advisers. The National Association of Manufacturers took issue with the securities regulator for not enforcing a Trump-era rule that sought to rein in the firms that are hired by institutional investors to advise them on how to vote their shares. Some companies argue that proxy advisory firms distort shareholder votes, but a recent study found that the firms can lead to better corporate outcomes.

    MindBody acquires ClassPass in a merger of exercise services. The combination of the two companies that help individuals find open exercise classes, and studios fill open spots, is a bet that people will soon return to gyms. Meanwhile, Tonal, a maker of connected fitness equipment, announced that the basketball star LeBron James has invested in the company, a bet that people will upgrade their home gyms.


    A duty to think of the big picture

    The Labor Department proposed rule changes yesterday that would make it easier for retirement plans to add investment options based on environmental, social and governance, or E.S.G., considerations.


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    Reversing a Trump-era policy, the proposal not only permits pension plan administrators from considering these factors, but it may make it their legal duty to do so, especially as the economic consequences of climate change continue to emerge. The Biden administration’s regulations would also make it possible for E.S.G. funds to be the default setting upon enrollment, which the previous administration prohibited.

    The existing rule appears to have a “chilling effect” on using E.S.G. factors to judge investments, said Marty Walsh, the labor secretary. “If these legal concerns were keeping fiduciaries on the sidelines, it could mean worse outcomes for workers and retirees,” Walsh said. E.S.G. factors are now incorporated in some $17 trillion worth of investments, or about one in three dollars under professional management. A small fraction of these investments are held by retirement plans, even as interest is rising fast, especially among younger investors.

    Retirement plan overseers can’t sacrifice returns or take on greater risks in pursuit of E.S.G. objectives, according to the proposed new rule. But investment managers could consider these issues earlier in the analytical process than under the old rule.

    Some investors have used E.S.G. factors in proxy fights with companies.Increasingly, shareholders have made environmental and social proposals at companies — and won. This year, such resolutions got an “eye-popping” amount of support. With even more money potentially unlocked to invest in these strategies, this trend is likely to continue.


    “I doubt we’ll be talking about supply chain stuff in a year. I just think that we’re focusing on it too much. It’s simply dampening a fairly good economy. It’s not reversing a fairly good economy.”

    — Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase on the bank’s latest earnings call.


    Piercing the veil of incarceration

    Larry Miller, the chairman of Nike’s Jordan Brand, was living in a kind of prison even as he rose through the top ranks of business — at Campbell Soup, at Kraft Foods and at the N.B.A. He had harbored a secret for more than 50 years that he feared would destroy him: When he was 16, Miller shot and killed another teenager and was imprisoned.

    Revealing his secret has been “a real freeing exercise.” Miller, 72, kept the truth from almost everyone, even some of his children, he told Sports Illustrated. Opening up about it, he said, could help change how others perceive people with criminal convictions.

    Criminal justice has become a popular cause in boardrooms, with a wide range of companies — like JPMorgan Chase, Koch Industries, McDonald’s, Third Point and Walmart — joining initiatives to train and hire formerly incarcerated individuals who have paid their debt to society. Miller’s success in business, described in a book about his life that comes out next year, may persuade people to rethink redeemability, he said.

    “It’s really about making sure that people understand that formerly incarcerated people can make a contribution,” Miller said. “And that a person’s mistake, or the worst mistake that they made in their life, shouldn’t control what happens with the rest of your life.”



    Why ‘no jab, no job’ policies are rare in Britain

    Starting next week, Blackstone will require employees who want to work at its London office to be vaccinated against the coronavirus, according to a memo seen by The Times. That means the American private equity giant is taking a much more forceful approach to vaccinations than many other businesses in Britain, Eshe Nelson and Lananh Nguyen write.

    Data protection and employment discrimination laws make corporate vaccine mandates rare in Britain. In the U.S., it is increasingly common to require employees to be inoculated to remain in their jobs, with companies with more than 100 workers getting ahead of a rule by Biden that will apply to them. (United Airlines’ C.E.O., Scott Kirby, confirmed yesterday that 232 of its unvaccinated U.S. employees were “going through the termination process.”) Companies in Britain, by contrast, have been advised to encourage vaccination rather than enforce it. Collecting proof of vaccination is particularly charged because medical records have special protection under British privacy laws.

    This highlights the challenge for international companies as they bring workers back to offices. In the U.S., Blackstone asked vaccinated deal makers to return to offices three months ago. In London, where more than 400 people work for the firm, working in the office remains voluntary, as does uploading proof of vaccination.


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    THE SPEED READ

    Deals

    • AvidXchange, a fintech firm backed by Mastercard and Peter Thiel, slipped in its first day of trading, ending with a market cap of $4.9 billion. (Bloomberg)
    • Tech investors have made more than $580 billion from listings and M.&A. deals so far this year. (FT)
    • The winemaker Winc is targeting a valuation of more than $260 million for its upcoming I.P.O. (Reuters)
    • The British payment processor SumUp is acquiring Fivestars of San Francisco as it expands into the U.S. to compete with Square and ******. (CNBC)

    Policy

    • The Biden administration is planning to develop wind farms along nearly the entire U.S. coastline. (NYT)
    • The Bank of England has banned its policy-setting committee members from having private discussions with bankers. (FT)
    • The venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz is shopping its ideas about crypto regulation around Washington. (CNBC)
    • The S.E.C. plans to break from its common practice of “no admit, no deny” settlements of civil enforcement actions. (WSJ)
    • The top federal auto safety regulator has questioned Tesla on its lack of a recall after an update to its driver-assistance software. (NYT)

    Best of the rest

    • Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of Alibaba who has laid low during China’s tech crackdown, has reappeared in Hong Kong. (Reuters)
    • “The Most Important Global Meeting You’ve Probably Never Heard Of Is Now” (NYT)
    • Workers in China are sharing details of their hours in a spreadsheet to protest the country’s excessive work culture. (Bloomberg)
    • “How New York’s Skewed Property Tax Benefits the Rich” (Bloomberg Businessweek)
    • The “Star Trek” actor William Shatner, 90, became the world’s oldest space traveler after his trip aboard a Blue Origin rocket. (NYT)


    Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

    Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

    We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.



    Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
    Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
    Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
    Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel
    Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
    Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
    Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

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  5. #1680  
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    I sold off the few shares of Tesla I had, up 30%. My luck, it'll keep shooting up!
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  6. #1681  
    RX Senior
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    Top News
    Santa's early start
    Shutterstock
    The Port of Los Angeles, one of the busiest ports in the country, will begin operating 24 hours a day and 7 days a week to ease cargo bottlenecks that have led to shortages and higher consumer costs. While the neighboring Port of Long Beach, Calif., also started doing a 24/7 schedule last month, major ports in Europe and Asia have operated around the clock for years. The latest change was announced by the White House as it seeks to alleviate supply chain issues ahead of the holidays, though the increase in capacity will require cooperation from major U.S. companies like Walmart (WMT), FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS).

    What happened? The root of the problem goes back to the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020, when consumer demand slumped and shipping lines canceled sailings between Asia and North America. When demand came back in the summer, there were thousands of empty containers stuck in the U.S., and by the fall of 2020, the West Coast freight networks were bursting at the seams to handle the surge in imports. A wave of COVID-19 cases in Southern California over the winter exacerbated the issue by causing a labor crunch, with docks, warehouses and truckers that handled the cargo unable to find enough workers.

    Companies like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Target (NYSE:TGT), Pottery Barn (NYSE:WSM), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) and Gap (NYSE:GPS) are even offering discounts - or starting holiday advertising - six weeks before Black Friday. The goal here is to stretch out the year-end shopping season, as supply chain challenges could leave them with empty shelves closer to the holidays. The firms also have a load of goods that they brought in early, but with limited warehouse space available, they need consumers to buy the stuff to top off their cash balances.

    Stats: According to a RetailMeNot survey of almost 1,100 consumers, 37% of shoppers began their holiday shopping between August and September (if not earlier). Another 22% said they would start shopping in October, while 24% planned to begin in November ahead of Thanksgiving. Americans are expected to spend about $1.3T this holiday season, per the latest forecast from Deloitte, marking a 7% to 9% increase over last year.


    Central Banking
    Tapering timeline
    Fed officials signaled last month that they should start reducing emergency pandemic support for the economy in mid-November or mid-December, according to the latest FOMC minutes. The program could then end by mid-2022, though several participants said they'd prefer quicker pace of reducing purchases. Keep in mind that the central bank is currently purchasing at least $80B per month of Treasury securities and at least $40B per month of MBS.

    What it means: "A number" of FOMC officials said they believed that the test of "substantial further progress" toward maximum employment had been met. That's important because most Fed members also believe that the price stability requirement had already been fulfilled. Central bankers are looking for both of the standards to be met before the Fed reduces its rate of asset purchases.

    "We still think November, but one month isn't going to matter to markets at this point," noted Lawrence Gillum, fixed income strategist for LPL Financial. "There was some interesting discussion on lift-off though and it looks like the Committee remains divided. The future make-up of the Committee only adds uncertainty to when lift-off will actually take place."

    Wild card: While the inflation outlook was raised in the near term after much discussion, Fed staff continue to predict the recent acceleration is "transitory." CPI data on Wednesday showed headline prices rising by 5.4% Y/Y in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of annual increases of 5% or more. However, stocks continued to climb during the session as traders appeared to spend much of the last few weeks positioning themselves for a flaming number. (43 comments)



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    Covid
    Mix and match
    A new study has found that individuals who received a COVID-19 booster shot that was from a different manufacturer than the original series had significantly increased neutralizing antibody titers. The findings, conducted by the National Institutes of Health, examined individuals who had initially received either the Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE, BNTX), Moderna (MRNA), or Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vaccine and then received a booster with one of the other jabs.

    By the numbers: For participants who received the same vaccine for the initial course and booster, neutralizing antibody titers increased 4.2-20-fold. Individuals who received a different booster saw titers increase 6.2-76-fold. The results, which were published on medRxiv, have yet to be peer reviewed.

    For the record, the CDC has recommended that individuals receive a booster shot from the same manufacturer and the primary series. Pfizer's booster has also been the only one authorized by the FDA.

    Elsewhere: The World Health Organization is establishing a new panel of scientists to lead an investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Earlier this year, President Biden ordered a similar systematic review, though that probe ended after China "continued to reject calls for transparency and withhold information." Many scientists believe the virus jumped from bats to humans, though a lab leak theory has gained ground after initially being dismissed by many as a conspiracy. (67 comments)



    Space
    Sci-fi becomes reality
    William Shatner, known to many as Captain and later Admiral Kirk, launched into space yesterday aboard a Blue Origin (BORGN) New Shepard rocket, which reached an altitude of 350K feet before parachuting back to Earth. At the age of 90, the Star Trek actor is the oldest person to ever fly into space. Looking ahead, SpaceX (SPACE) is also prepping to launch three private passengers, who each paid $55M to fly to the International Space Station in 2022.

    Bigger picture: Having Shatner on board brought star power to Bezos space tourism enterprise, given its appeal to baby boomers, industry watchers and space enthusiasts. Analysts also say the attention is incrementally positive in bringing attention to the space sector and space-related stocks like Virgin Galactic (SPCE), Redwire (RDW), Iridium Communications (IRDM), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Astra Space (ASTR) and Spire Global (SPIR).

    "You have done something," Shatner told Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon (AMZN) and Blue Origin, after emerging from the capsule. "What you have given me is the most profound experience. I hope I never recover from this."

    Outlook: Congress has restricted the FAA from regulating the safety of commercial space flights since 2004 to help the sector develop without heavy compliance costs. The policy has been extended several times over the years and now runs until 2023. Crews today fly under a regime known as "informed consent," meaning potential astronauts take on similar risks to skydivers and bungee jumpers. Companies are fighting for share in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1T in annual sales by 2040, according to Morgan Stanley, whose forecast assumes rapid developments in space tourism, moon landings and satellite broadband Internet. (47 comments)



    Today's Markets
    In Asia, Japan +1.5%. Hong Kong closed. China -0.1%. India +0.9%.
    In Europe, at midday, London +0.8%. Paris +0.9%. Frankfurt +0.9%.
    Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.6%. S&P +0.7%. Nasdaq +0.8%. Crude +1.3% at $81.45. Gold +0.4% at $1745. Bitcoin +4.9% at $57396.
    Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 1.54%

    Today's Economic Calendar
    8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
    8:30 Producer Price Index
    8:35 Fed's Bullard Speech
    9:00 Fed's Bostic Speech
    10:00 Fed's Bostic Speech
    10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
    11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
    1:00 PM Fed's Williams Speech
    1:00 PM Fed's Barkin: “Talking About Outcomes”
    4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
    6:00 PM Fed's Harker: Economic Outlook

    Companies reporting earnings today »

    What else is happening...
    Analysts react: JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Q3 revenue beat is mostly expense driven.

    Russia's Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) is pumping gas from storage to Europe.

    U.S. announces plans for seven offshore wind farms by 2025.

    Uranium ETFs, stocks rally in bet on nuclear power's resurgence.

    Purdue Pharma to resume work on its $10B settlement - AP.

    As CRISPR (CRSP) continues to falter, other CAR-T names aren't impacted.

    Revival? Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) could follow Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) path.

    Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) beats consensus, guides above estimates.

    Bill Gross sees 10-year Treasury yield rising to 2% over the next year.

    Seeking More
    Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

    Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.


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  7. #1682  
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    October 15, 2021

    Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


    Harvard’s endowment had a great year, but not as great as others did.Charles Krupa/Associated Press


    High grades for college endowments

    University endowment managers, long criticized for the fees they pay out to private equity firms and hedge funds, have something to show for it: eye-popping returns. Yesterday, M.I.T. reported that its endowment had gained 56 percent in its most recent fiscal year, which ended in June. Yale also published its latest returns yesterday, with its endowment up 40 percent over the same period, its third-highest annual return since 1970. Dartmouth posted a return of nearly 47 percent. Duke reported a 56 percent return.

    Harvard, which runs the biggest endowment (worth $53 billion), said yesterday that its fiscal-year return lagged many of its rivals, rising a mere 34 percent. Harvard’s endowment manager said this “tremendous” return nonetheless reflected “the opportunity cost of taking lower risk” than many of the school’s peers.

    A big reason for the gains is investments with private equity firms, which in some years have received more in fees than endowments have paid out in tuition help. Harvard’s private equity investments, worth a third of its total portfolio, returned 77 percent in its latest fiscal year. Venture capital funds are also recording huge returns: The University of North Carolina logged a 142 percent return from that portion of its $10 billion endowment.


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    Are these returns worth the risk? Many endowments, like Harvard’s, have increased their allocations to private equity, venture capital and hedge funds in recent years, saying that this provides crucial diversification from broader stock and bond market trends. These “alternative” investments can result in outsize returns, subject to hefty fees, but can be less predictable than more conservative choices. The S&P 500 was up about 40 percent in the year to June, putting endowments’ returns in perspective. Even with U.N.C.’s venture capital gains, its total endowment was up 42 percent. Yale’s fund had nearly 40 percent of its portfolio in private equity funds, and matched the return of a diversified index fund.

    High returns also complicate the debate about big endowments’ tax status. One of the few tax increases that President Donald Trump pushed through was a 1.4 percent levy on the largest university endowments’ investment income. Facing lobbying by the affected institutions, Democrats have discussed reducing the tax as part of the spending bills slowly working their way through Congress. The bumper returns that many schools just reported could make that harder to justify.

    HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

    It’s the first day of Italy’s sweeping vaccine mandate. All workers across public and private sectors are now required to show proof of vaccination against the coronavirus or they will be put on unpaid leave. Lines formed outside the country’s office buildings, and officials braced for protests. Follow The Times’s live, on-the-ground updates as the first-of-its-kind mandate for a Western democracy comes into force.

    An F.D.A. panel recommends a Moderna booster. Advisers voted unanimously in favor of approving a half-dose booster of the coronavirus vaccine. Those eligible for the extra shot include people over 65 and other adults considered at high risk, the same groups now eligible for a Pfizer-BioNTech booster.


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    Boeing is in more trouble. A former Boeing pilot accused of deceiving the F.A.A. was indicted by a federal grand jury for statements he made about the 737 Max jet, the plane involved in two crashes in which 346 people were killed. Separately, the company is dealing with a new type of defect on its 787 Dreamliner.

    LinkedIn is shutting down its social networking service in China. The Microsoft-owned site cited “a significantly more challenging operating environment and greater compliance requirements” in making the move. It was one of the last foreign social networking sites operating in the country — Twitter and Facebook have been blocked for years, and Google left more than a decade ago — and will instead offer users in China a new app focused solely on job postings.

    Netflix faces outside criticism and internal unrest. The comedian Dave Chappelle’s special, “The Closer,” was called transphobic by several organizations, including GLAAD. It has thrust Netflix into difficult cultural debates, the kind usually focused on Facebook and Google, which are playing out in heated internal discussions as employees accuse the streaming giant’s executives of facilitating the spread of hate speech.


    Banks report sunny earnings, but clouds loom

    The nation’s largest banks this week reported bumper earnings for the third quarter, propelling the stock market higher. Profits at Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo rose by more than 50 percent, on average. (Goldman Sachs reports later today.) Driving the banks’ earnings increase was a flurry of fee-generating deal-making activity, but other parts of their businesses, like trading and lending, were down.


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    Those six banks hold more than 40 percent of all assets in the sector, which means that their fortunes can provide a pretty good weather vane for the economy in general. Here’s the forecast:

    Partly sunny with unseasonably high temperatures: Deal-making was strong, with M.&A. fees hitting record highs, a sign that executives are optimistic about the future. Consumers are also opening their wallets, with credit card spending up more than 20 percent in the third quarter, versus a year ago, at Bank of America, Citi and JPMorgan. “If you look at the economy, it’s improving, people are spending more and businesses are going to have to start investing,” Paul Donofrio, Bank of America’s C.F.O., said yesterday.

    Late thunderstorms possible: Trading revenue fell at JPMorgan and Citigroup and rose slightly at Morgan Stanley, reflecting the recent turmoil in markets. What’s more, a good portion of the banks’ earnings in the latest quarter came from tapping rainy-day funds. Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo pulled a collective $6 billion out of accounts meant to cover future loan losses. And loan growth overall was again disappointing. If higher spending shows optimism for today, a lack of lending may be a sign that consumers and businesses still see clouds on the horizon.


    Seen and heard

    “We need some of the world’s greatest brains and minds fixed on trying to repair this planet, not trying to find the next place to go and live.”

    — Prince William, taking aim at billionaires spending their money on going to space rather than on fighting climate change on Earth.

    “The state companies are going their own way. They don’t care about the political pressure worldwide to control emissions.”

    — René Ortiz, a former OPEC secretary general and a former energy minister in Ecuador, on how government-owned energy companies are increasing production as U.S. and European companies pare supply because of climate concerns.

    “It’s a racecar slowing down ahead of a turn, but it’s still going faster than we ever have in our lives.”

    — Igor Popov, the chief economist at Apartment List, on the rapid rise in rent prices, which is stoking inflation and putting pressure on policymakers to react.


    In the papers

    Some of the academic research that caught our eye this week, summarized in one sentence:




    Crypto players mobilize in D.C.

    Coinbase, the cryptocurrency exchange, started a high-profile public policy campaign yesterday, posting its blueprint for crypto regulations on GitHub, which mainly serves as an open-source software code library, for public comment. “Our purpose in publishing this proposal was to contribute to a broad conversation and to do so openly and democratically,” a Coinbase spokeswoman told DealBook.

    Federal agencies are racing to address the potential risks in the fast-growing crypto industry, and a burgeoning lobby has emerged to influence the shape of regulations.

    Coinbase is flipping the script. Traditionally, lawmakers and regulators solicit comments from the public when considering new rules and regulations. But Coinbase appears to be losing patience, feuding publicly last month on Twitter with the S.E.C. over a proposed crypto product and now subtly co-opting the government’s role as representative of the people.

    But old-fashioned lobbying is still important. Although Coinbase did not submit its proposal to the Senate Banking Committee, which recently requested input on crypto regulations, it met with staff at 30 congressional offices and engaged directly with at least 20 members of Congress before publishing it, the company told reporters. It also “reached out” to the S.E.C., it said.

    Crypto advocates are flooding the zone. The venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, an early Coinbase investor, submitted its thoughts to the banking panel, and representatives have been making the rounds in Washington this week to advance the firm’s views. Katie Haun, a former federal prosecutor who co-leads Andreessen’s crypto fund, was also in town.

    “Crypto knows how to get through to members,” Kristin Smith of the Blockchain Association told lawyers this week at a D.C. Bar Association event. The industry’s ability to engage with Congress and encourage enthusiasts to press its policy views is unique, she said. Crypto now has “more of a voice and a seat at the table,” she added. Mobilizing crypto Twitter — a “highly communicative community” — is the industry’s “special tool,” she said.


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    THE SPEED READ

    Deals

    • The activist investor Jana Partners has taken a stake in Macy’s and is pushing for the retailer to spin off its e-commerce business. (WSJ)
    • LeBron James’s SpringHill entertainment group sold a minority stake to four investors — Gerry Cardinale’s RedBird Capital, Fenway Sports Group, Nike and Epic Games — at a $725 million valuation. (NYT)
    • Shares in the software provider GitLab jumped 35 percent on its first day of trading, raising its valuation to almost $15 billion. (CNBC)

    Policy

    • China’s central bank said that the risks to the country’s financial system from Evergrande’s crisis were “controllable.” (Reuters)
    • Plant-based food companies aren’t transparent enough about their emissions to tell whether their foods are more sustainable than meat, some analysts say. (NYT)
    • “Shareholder Democracy Is Getting Bigger Trial Runs” (NYT)
    • YouTube’s stricter policy against election misinformation led to a drop in misleading videos on Facebook and Twitter, too. (NYT)
    • Cybersecurity experts said that plans by Apple and the E.U. to monitor phones for illicit material were ineffective and dangerous. (NYT)

    Best of the rest

    • The real reasons driving the energy crunch in Britain and the rest of Europe. (NYT)
    • “Your Black Friday Bargain Is Stuck Somewhere in the Pacific.” (Bloomberg Opinion)
    • The U.S. is missing about 4.3 million workers. Where did they go? (WSJ)
    • A shorter workweek trial in Iceland was an “overwhelming success,” researchers say. (Bloomberg)
    • “The Unvaccinated May Not Be Who You Think” (Times Opinion)


    Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

    Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

    We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.



    Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
    Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
    Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
    Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel
    Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
    Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
    Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs


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  8. #1683  
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    Top News
    Bitcoin business
    Shutterstock
    The SEC could decide as early as Monday to allow American ETFs to hold Bitcoin (BTC-USD) futures, making it easier for small investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency. The agency is facing a Monday deadline to decide whether to approve or deny a filing by ProShares to launch a ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF. Several other ETF firms have also filed to launch similar funds and will be watching closely to see whether regulators green light ProShares' plan.

    Snapshot: Many investors have been anticipating the ability to trade crypto assets through exchange traded funds, but the SEC has yet to allow ETFs to directly hold things like Bitcoin. In the past, the agency has cited investor hazards like liquidity, manipulation and extreme price swings. The list of issuers that are currently anticipating the approval include names such as Valkyrie, Galaxy Digital, VanEck, ETF Series Solutions, ARK Invest, Invesco and ProShares.

    "Before investing in a fund that holds Bitcoin futures contracts, make sure you carefully weigh the potential risks and benefits," the SEC wrote in a tweet late Thursday. "Check out our Investor Bulletin to learn more."

    Movement: All the hype is adding to bullish crypto sentiment as Bitcoin traded up 3% overnight to over $59,000. At that level, the token has doubled in value this year and is near April's record high of $64,895. While the proposed Bitcoin-futures ETFs won't invest directly in crypto, issuers aim to trade futures contracts based on Bitcoin. (68 comments)



    Aviation
    Indicted for MAX fraud
    Mark Forkner, chief technical pilot of the Boeing (BA) 737 MAX program, has been indicted by a federal grand jury in Texas for allegedly deceiving safety regulators which had been evaluating the plane before its approval. As a result of a series of missteps, two MAX crashes occurred in late 2018 in Indonesia and early 2019 in Ethiopia that claimed 346 lives. While the pilots tried to regain control of the plane, both went into fatal nosedives minutes after taking off.

    Backdrop: The "Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System" was a flight stabilizing program developed by Boeing that became notorious for its role in the fatal accidents. MCAS mitigated the MAX's tendency to pitch up during certain maneuvers - because of the aerodynamic effects of its larger CFM LEAP-1B engines - though Boeing requested the FAA remove its description from aircraft manuals (leaving pilots unaware of the new system when the jet entered service in 2017). Meanwhile, the decision allowed the MAX to be certified as another 737 version, which appealed to airlines due to the reduced cost of pilot training.

    737 MAX jets were grounded worldwide for more than a year and a half following the deepest corporate crisis in Boeing's history. The FAA only approved the plane for flying again late last year after company made changes to MCAS. In January, Boeing also agreed to pay more than $2.5B in fines and compensation after reaching a deferred prosecution agreement with DOJ over the MAX crashes, which cost the company a total of more than $20B.

    Justice comes knocking? Forkner is expected to make an initial court appearance today in Fort Worth, Texas. He faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison for each of the four counts of wire fraud, and 10 years in prison for each of the two counts of fraud involving aircraft parts in interstate commerce. That could mean decades behind bars if convicted. (45 comments)



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    Tech
    LinkedIn reevaluates China
    Microsoft (MSFT) is shutting down the Chinese version of LinkedIn, effectively turning out the lights on the last major American social media provider operating in the country. Beijing had once touted the model, which involves a partnership between LinkedIn and Chinese nationals who actually own the platform, as a way for American tech giants to access its market. However, the framework didn't allow overseas headquarters to have too much control over the Chinese operations, making it an unpopular choice in Silicon Valley.

    Behind the decision: "While we've found success in helping Chinese members find jobs and economic opportunity, we have not found that same level of success in the more social aspects of sharing and staying informed," LinkedIn said in a blog post. "We're also facing a significantly more challenging operating environment and greater compliance requirements in China."

    Back in March, LinkedIn temporarily paused new member sign ups in China to ensure it complied with local law. China's internet regulator also told company officials to better regulate its content and gave them 30 days to do so. Since then, LinkedIn has notified a number of China-focused activists, academics and journalists that their profiles were being blocked for containing prohibited content.

    Going forward: "Our new strategy for China is to put our focus on helping China-based professionals find jobs in China and Chinese companies find quality candidates. Later this year, we will launch InJobs, a new, standalone jobs application for China. InJobs will not include a social feed or the ability to share posts or articles. We will also continue to work with Chinese businesses to help them create economic opportunity." (24 comments)



    Financials
    Bank earnings
    It's been a solid first week of Q3 earnings so far as the largest U.S. banks posted another robust round of quarterly results. A rebounding economy allowed lenders to release more cash they had set aside for pandemic losses, while equity financing and trading boosted bottom lines. Don't forget about the deal bonanza that continued to ring the register for the banks' Wall Street operations, with a hefty quarter for mergers-and-acquisitions fees.

    JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) - Q3 net interest income of $13.2B, driven by balance sheet growth and higher rates, while Asset & Wealth management net revenue came in at $4.3B (+5% Q/Q and +21% Y/Y).

    Bank of America (BAC) - Regained the organic customer growth momentum it experienced before the pandemic, as well as reporting a record quarter for M&A transactions.

    Wells Fargo (WFC) - Consumer Banking & Lending net income of $2.5B climbed 15% from Q2 and 181% from Q3 2020, while total outstanding loans were down from a year ago, but up from the previous quarter.

    Citibank (C) - Spending on Citi credit cards rose 20% Y/Y to a record and continued climbing from the summer, though "strong consumer balance sheets impacted lending."

    Morgan Stanley (MS) - Topped expectations as investment bankers scored their best quarter ever, with the division posting a 67% increase in revenue to $2.85B.

    Commentary: "The banks painted a strong and healthy picture of the U.S. consumer," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. "Wall Street can't turn negative on the economy after seeing reserve releases, moderating trading revenue, mixed loan growth, and a consumer willing to take on debt."


    Today's Markets
    In Asia, Japan +1.8%. Hong Kong +1.5%. China +0.4%. India closed.
    In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
    Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +0.9% at $82.03. Gold -0.8% at $1783.80. Bitcoin +3.1% at $59241.
    Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 1.55%

    Today's Economic Calendar
    8:30 Retail Sales
    8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
    8:30 Import/Export Prices
    10:00 Business Inventories
    10:00 Consumer Sentiment
    11:45 Fed's Bullard: “Optimal Monetary Policy for the Masses”
    12:20 Fed's Williams: “Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stars”
    1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

    Companies reporting earnings today »

    What else is happening...
    FDA panel recommends Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA)booster for at-risk adults.

    UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) drives managed care peers higher after solid Q3 beat.

    Klobuchar & Grassley... Big Tech faces another bipartisan antitrust bill.

    Army delays Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) $22B AR goggles project.

    McDonald's (MCD) plans to test Beyond Meat (BYND) burger in U.S.

    Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) suggests new crypto framework to replace SEC.

    These stocks have the highest borrow fees for short sellers.

    Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) puts talc liabilities into bankruptcy.

    Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) falls 13% as Unity 23 test flight is rescheduled.

    TSMC (NYSE:TSM) confirms plans for semiconductor fab plant in Japan.

    Seeking More
    Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

    Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.


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  9. #1684  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
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    Global Market Comments
    October 15, 2021
    Fiat Lux

    Featured Trade:(HOW THE MAD HEDGE MARKET TIMING ALGORITHM WORKS)


    How the Mad Hedge Market Timing Algorithm WorksSince we have just taken in a large number of new subscribers from around the world, I will go through the basics of my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index one more time.

    I have tried to make this as easy to use as possible, even devoid of the thought process.

    When the index is reading 20 or below, you only consider “BUY” ideas. When it reads over 80, it’s time to “SELL.” Everything in between is a varying shade of grey. Most of the time, the index fluctuates between 20-80, which means that there is absolutely nothing to do today, although I am leaning towards more “BUYS”.

    To identify a coming market reversal, it’s good to see the index chop around for at least a few weeks at an extreme reading. Look at the three-year chart of the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index.

    After three years of battle testing, the algorithm has earned its stripes. I started posting it at the top of every newsletter and Trade Alert two years ago and will continue to do so in the future. The success rate of calls by the index in 2021 is about 95%.

    Once I implemented my proprietary Mad Hedge Market Timing Index in October 2016, the average annualized performance of my Trade Alertservice has doubled to an eye-popping 43%.

    As a result, new subscribers have been beating down the doors trying to get in.

    Let me list the highpoints of having a friendly algorithm looking over your shoulder on every trade.

    *Algorithms have become so dominant in the market, accounting for up to 90% of total trading volume, that you should never trade without one

    *It does the work of a seasoned 100-man research department in seconds
    *It runs real-time and optimizes returns with the addition of every new data point far faster than any human can. Imagine a trading strategy that upgrades itself 1,000 times a day!
    *It is artificial intelligence-driven and self-learning.
    *Don’t go to a gunfight with a knife. If you are trading against algos alone,
    you WILL lose!

    *Algorithms provide you with a defined systematic trading discipline that will enhance your profits.

    And here’s the amazing thing. My Mad Hedge Market Timing Indexcorrectly predicted the outcome of the presidential election, while I got it dead wrong.

    You saw this in stocks like US Steel (X), which took off like a scalded chimp the week before the election.

    When my and the Market Timing Index’s views sharply diverge, I go into cash rather than bet against it.

    Since then, my Trade Alert performance has been on an absolute tear. In 2017, we earned an eye-popping 57.39%. In 2018, I clocked 23.67% while the Dow Average was down 8%, a beat of 31%. So far in 2020, we are up 25.83%.

    Here are just a handful of some of the elements which the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index analyzes real-time, 24/7.

    50 and 200 day moving averages across all markets and industries

    The Volatility Index (VIX)

    The junk bond (JNK)/US Treasury bond spread (TLT)

    Stocks hitting 52 day highs versus 52 day lows

    McClellan Volume Summation Index

    20-day stock-bond performance spread

    5-day put/call ratio

    Stocks with rising versus falling volume

    Relative Strength Indicator

    12-month US GDP Trend

    Case Shiller S&P 500 National Home Price Index

    Of course, the Trade Alert service is not entirely algorithm-driven. It is just one tool to use among many others.

    Yes, 50 years of experience trading the markets is still worth quite a lot.

    I plan to constantly revise and upgrade the algorithm that drives the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index continuously, as new data sets become available.


    It Seems I’m Not the Only One Using Algorithms


    Quote of the Day“I think, it’s very obvious what’s going on. It’s the miracle of free money, zero commissions, and a lot of people getting checks that exceed what they would get if they went to work,” said my former hedge fund investor friend, Leon Cooperman of Omega Family Office.




    This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
    The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
    For full disclosures click here at:

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

    The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
    and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
    are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
    The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C)
    is protected by the United States Copyright Office




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  10. #1685  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
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    Oregon Coast
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    The trends continue to move in the right direction this week, with nothing changing dramatically from the beginning of the week. New case figures continue to run, on average, about 10K lower than the corresponding week-ago readings each day. That should put this week’s total somewhere just above 600K. That’s still far too high, but it’s about halfway down from the most recent peak to pre-Delta wave levels.

    Similarly, hospitalizations are down to about halfway between the late-August peak and the pre-Delta lows. We’re about a week away from cracking below 50K again and still falling by on average close to 1K per day. At this pace, by the end of October, the surge will be mostly over. At this point, all but about a dozen states, including all of the big ones except PA, are well off their Delta highs. My hope is that by the end of the month, we will begin to see the first states returning to or near their pre-Delta levels.

    Turning to COVID regulations, I am curious to see what happens, perhaps next month, when the conditions that justified the more stringent restrictions on activity like mask mandates, proof of vaccination, vaccine mandates, etc. no longer hold. Some things can be easily relaxed (e.g., mask mandates), but it feels like the mask mandate battles will continue.

    After recently relaxing the restrictions on international air travelers entering the U.S., the White House yesterday announced that it will soon ease restrictions on non-essential land travel between Canada and Mexico. This is designed to allow people in border communities to be able to move back and forth, for shopping, to see friends and family, etc. These efforts are all part of a campaign to reinvigorate international travel to the U.S. ahead of the holiday season. The international air travel rules were formally rolled out today with a November 8 implementation. Only fully vaccinated individuals with a negative test within 72 hours of takeoff will be allowed in.

    The “vaccine mandate wars” have a new high-profile poster child. Kyrie Irving, a star for the Brooklyn Nets, an early favorite to win the NBA title, refuses to get vaccinated. That’s a problem because NYC is requiring proof of vaccination to enter an indoor sports arena. So, Irving is not legally allowed to play in his team’s home games (and a few road games). The team decided this week that it had had enough. The Nets announced that Irving will not practice or play with the team until he gets vaccinated. Kyrie responded that: “I’m standing with all those that believe what is right. Everybody is entitled to do what they feel is what’s best for themselves. Seeing the way this is dividing our world up, it’s sad to see. People are losing jobs to mandates.” The regular season starts next week, so the clock is ticking for Kyrie.

    With the FDA slated to take up the question of vaccines for children ages 5 to 11 in a few weeks, the next round of the vaccine mandate wars may relate to children and the ability to attend in-person school classes. The state of CA has already announced a vaccine mandate for students to attend school as soon as the vaccines attain full approval for student age groups. However, a piece by David Leonhart of the New York Times (not exactly a right-wing anti-vaxxer) this week shows that real-world data indicate an exceedingly low risk to children from COVID. Data from King County, WA (Seattle area) show that the incidence of hospitalization from COVID for children 11 and under is similar to that for vaccinated people in their 50s. Nationwide data from England offer a much larger sample and show even less risk. Children under 12 were hospitalized during the 4-week period ending October 3 at a rate lower than for fully vaccinated adults in their 40s, if not 30s. Experts note that the risks of COVID for children is not much different as for any number of respiratory viruses that are considered routine. In light of this data, blanket vaccine mandates to attend school seem like overkill, and I can already envision a series of bitter battles across the country as state and local government officials and/or local School Districts require vaccination to attend school and a substantial minority of parents resist.

    By the way, the flip side of this age-distribution data is that older people, even when fully vaccinated, are still at significant risk. The UK data show that the rate of COVID hospitalizations for fully vaccinated adults was in the single digits per 100,000 people for those in their 50s but 49 per 100,000 for the over 80 cohort (which was half the frequency for the unvaccinated 80+ cohort). In my view, all of this data argues for a much more targeted approach rather than treating everyone exactly the same, regardless of age, especially once the incidence of the virus gets down to a more manageable level.

    As the FDA Advisory Committee debates boosters, the NIH-sponsored study on mixing vaccines found that taking different shots is at least as effective as sticking with the same vaccine throughout. If the government agencies sign off on mixing vaccines, then the booster process can be much more flexible, and the vaccines will be competing in an effectively free market for willing recipients of boosters. In fact, the market may evolve even more into a winner-take-all proposition. The study found that a Moderna shot gave the most powerful boost to people who had the single-dose J&J vaccine, with Pfizer also offering a far stronger boost than a second dose of J&J. J&J scientists acknowledge that their vaccine provides a smaller antibody kickstart but argue that the J&J protection is longer-lasting.

    The Advisory Committee decided on Thursday to unanimously recommend booster doses of the Moderna vaccine for everyone 65 and older and younger adults who are in high-risk groups due to underlying health issues or job situation. The Moderna booster will be a half dose relative to the original shots, which apparently does not present a major logistical problem. The Advisory Committee is debating boosters for the J&J vaccine as well as mixing vaccines today. As I am finishing up, the Committee voted unanimously to recommend boosters for everyone who got the single-dose J&J vaccine (and after as little as two months). As I have suggested for months, that vaccine should probably have been a two-dose regimen from the outset.

    The news on vaccines was not all good. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the FDA is delaying a decision on authorizing the Moderna vaccine for ages 12 to 17 so that it can gather more data on the risk of myocarditis, a heart inflammation condition that has occurred in rare cases, mainly in younger males.

    The FDA Advisory Committee’s dance card remains full. Next up after boosters this week and vaccines for ages 5-11 in two weeks will be Merck’s antiviral pill. There had been some talk of skipping the Advisory Committee step and proceeding straight to approval, given the overwhelmingly positive trial data, but the FDA has decided to follow standard operating procedures. The FDA Advisory Committee will take up the drug in a meeting on November 30, which means that the pill will not be approved before December.

    Turning to policy, The Hill ran a story this week detailing how Senator McConnell took a big hit among Republican Senators for his move to extend the debt ceiling fight into December. The bulk of the caucus felt that McConnell caved when he was in an advantageous position, and Republican Senators are making it clear that they will not supply the votes again to help Democrats raise the debt ceiling in December. McConnell acknowledged that in a latter to President Biden last Friday, in which he implored Biden to encourage Democratic Senators to enact a debt limit hike via reconciliation. However, Senate Democrats remain adamant that they will not do so (House Democrats are starting to warm up to the reconciliation route, but their views matter less because the reconciliation path is only needed in the Senate). Thus, as December 3 approaches (it will be here sooner than you think), the game of chicken is likely to go right down to the bitter end, in contrast to the surprising swerve taken by McConnell last week.

    On the economy, The Wall Street Journal reported this week that more workers are returning to the office. Using data from Kastle Systems that measures cardkey swipes, the number of workers returning to offices in 10 major cities was 31% of the pre-pandemic norm the week of Labor Day, moving to 35% in the week ended October 1 and 36% last week, a post-pandemic high. The rise has been especially notable in NYC, where the percentage moved from 21% at the beginning of September to 30% last week. The return-to-office trend has been much slower than anticipated, as a June survey of Manhattan employers (i.e., before the Delta wave hit) predicted that 62% of workers would be back by September.

    The striking shift in the balance of power between businesses and workers continues. A few thousand workers have already gone on strike, and over 100,000 unionized employees have overwhelmingly voted to authorize strikes. This includes Hollywood production crew members, John Deere factory workers, and Kaiser Permanente nurses. It feels like higher wages are not just a pandemic aberration. The 10,000 Deere workers went out on strike yesterday, the first strike at the company in 35 years.

    The owner of a staffing firm in Jacksonville, FL said that the average pay his clients are paying is up 22% from a year ago (that’s not a typo – I did not hit the 2 button twice by mistake!). Skilled workers who were drawing $12 an hour before the pandemic are commanding $17 or $18 an hour now.

    The Wall Street Journal had an article today on the eviction situation. The federal moratorium ended in August, but we have not gotten a surge in evictions just yet. Recall that many pointed to the possibility of a flood of millions and millions of evictions. Instead, trends last month remained well below pre-pandemic norms in September. Sources in the article point to two reasons for this. First, roughly half of renters nationally were living in areas with state or local eviction bans still in place after the federal moratorium expired. In major cities with no local protections in place, such as Houston, evictions in September were much closer to historical norms. Second, landlords are in many cases hesitant to evict because they still hope that their renters gain access to the federal funds that have been so slow to be distributed.

    Have a great weekend.


    Stephen Stanley
    Chief Economist
    Amherst Pierpont




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  11. #1686  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,233
    Chalk eater this week.
    Pitt -5
    KC -6.5
    Cleveland -3
    Dallas - 3.5


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    TOGETHER WITH
    Top News
    Shutterstock
    The S&P 500 wrapped up its best week since July, closing at its highest level in a month, as a series of upside earnings reports from Wall Street's biggest banks outweighed negative macro sentiment. Financial heavyweights Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America were among the firms topping consensus estimates. Economic data also eased some concerns this week, with U.S. retail sales data coming in stronger than expected and initial jobless claims posting their lowest numbers since the pandemic began. U.S. Treasuries fell as the 10-year yield inched above 1.57%, but more telling was the two-year yield climbing to its highest since February 2020.

    Financials
    Bank earnings
    It was a solid first week of Q3 earnings as the largest U.S. banks posted another robust round of quarterly results. A rebounding economy allowed lenders to release more cash they had set aside for pandemic losses, while equity financing and trading boosted bottom lines. Don't forget about the deal bonanza that continued to ring the register for the banks' Wall Street operations, with a hefty quarter for mergers-and-acquisitions fees.

    JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) - Q3 net interest income of $13.2B, driven by balance sheet growth and higher rates, while Asset & Wealth management net revenue came in at $4.3B (+5% Q/Q and +21% Y/Y).

    Bank of America (BAC) - Regained the organic customer growth momentum it experienced before the pandemic, as well as reporting a record quarter for M&A transactions.

    Wells Fargo (WFC) - Consumer Banking & Lending net income of $2.5B climbed 15% from Q2 and 181% from Q3 2020, while total outstanding loans were down from a year ago, but up from Q2.

    Citibank (C) - Spending on Citi credit cards rose 20% Y/Y to a record and continued climbing from the summer, though "strong consumer balance sheets impacted lending."

    Morgan Stanley (MS) - Topped expectations as investment bankers scored their best quarter ever, with the division posting a 67% increase in revenue to $2.85B.

    Commentary: "The banks painted a strong and healthy picture of the U.S. consumer," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. "Wall Street can't turn negative on the economy after seeing reserve releases, moderating trading revenue, mixed loan growth, and a consumer willing to take on debt."


    Communicated
    Inflation: Between The Fed’s Rock And The Economy’s Hard Place
    While Chairman Powell continues to stall, the rise in the cost of goods is undercutting the administration’s hope for a continued robust economy. With no room for error, the Fed is now trapped as it tries to tame the inflation beast. This leaves your portfolio caught between a rock and a hard place. The good news is you have a chance to soften the blow and come out ahead by making some key moves today…Continue Reading
    Energy
    'Bumpy ride'
    Many questions have surfaced in recent weeks over the pace of the energy transition as a power crunch takes shape across the globe. While many arguments are covering specific policy details or green efforts, all appear to be in agreement that the world is not spending enough on future energy needs. Some of those risks were detailed in the new World Energy Outlook from the IEA, which advises governments on energy policy.

    Quote: "There is a looming risk of more turbulence for global energy markets," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "Spending on oil and natural gas has been depressed by price collapses in 2014-15 and again in 2020. As a result, it is geared towards a world of stagnant or even falling demand. If the supply side moves away from oil or gas before the world's consumers do, then the world could face periods of market tightness and volatility. Alternatively, if companies misread the speed of change and over-invest, then these assets risk under-performing or becoming stranded."

    "The energy transition is not being handled properly," OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo declared last week at the Energy Intelligence Forum. "And hence we are beginning to see the fallout." The fundamental problem has been the "hysteria" that has prompted a move away from fossil fuels, shrinking much-needed investment, even in developing countries. That being said, "we call on the leading polluters, the leading emitters" to pause and work on sustainable solutions when they gather for the November COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow, Scotland.

    Outlook: Oil prices are up more than 60% in 2021, while U.S. natural gas prices have more than doubled this year. "At the same time, spending on clean energy transitions is far below what would be required to meet future needs in a sustainable way," the IEA added in the report, advocating for annual spending on clean energy to triple to $4T by the end of the decade in order to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Emissions can drop by 40% using technologies that pay for themselves, according to the IEA, though the majority of the investment (nearly 70%) would have to come from private developers and Wall Street. This could also create "huge economic opportunities" for clean energy technologies such as wind turbines, solar panels, fuel cells, electrolyzers and a new era of batteries. (23 comments)


    Consumer
    Santa's early start
    The Port of Los Angeles, one of the busiest ports in the country, is starting to operate 24 hours a day and 7 days a week to ease cargo bottlenecks that have led to shortages and higher consumer costs. While the neighboring Port of Long Beach, Calif., also started doing a 24/7 schedule last month, major ports in Europe and Asia have operated around the clock for years. The latest change was announced by the White House as it seeks to alleviate supply chain issues ahead of the holidays, though the increase in capacity will require cooperation from major U.S. companies like Walmart (WMT), FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS).

    What happened? The root of the problem goes back to the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020, when consumer demand slumped and shipping lines canceled sailings between Asia and North America. When demand came back in the summer, there were thousands of empty containers stuck in the U.S., and by the fall of 2020, the West Coast freight networks were bursting at the seams to handle the surge in imports. A wave of COVID-19 cases in Southern California over the winter exacerbated the issue by causing a labor crunch, with docks, warehouses and truckers that handled the cargo unable to find enough workers.

    Companies like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Target (NYSE:TGT), Pottery Barn (NYSE:WSM), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) and Gap (NYSE:GPS) are even offering discounts - or starting holiday advertising - six weeks before Black Friday. The goal here is to stretch out the year-end shopping season, as supply chain challenges could leave them with empty shelves closer to the holidays. The firms also have a load of goods that they brought in early, but with limited warehouse space available, they need consumers to buy the stuff to top off their cash balances.

    Stats: According to a RetailMeNot survey of almost 1,100 consumers, 37% of shoppers began their holiday shopping between August and September (if not earlier). Another 22% said they would start shopping in October, while 24% planned to begin in November ahead of Thanksgiving. Americans are expected to spend about $1.3T this holiday season, per the latest forecast from Deloitte, marking a 7% to 9% increase over last year. (17 comments)


    Central Banking
    Tapering timeline
    Fed officials signaled last month that they should start reducing emergency pandemic support for the economy in mid-November or mid-December, according to the latest FOMC minutes. The program could then end by mid-2022, though several participants said they'd prefer a quicker pace of reducing purchases. Keep in mind that the central bank is currently purchasing at least $80B per month of Treasury securities and at least $40B per month of MBS.

    What it means: "A number" of FOMC officials said they believed that the test of "substantial further progress" toward maximum employment had been met. That's important because most Fed members also believe that the price stability requirement had already been fulfilled. Central bankers are looking for both of the standards to be met before the Fed reduces its rate of asset purchases.

    "We still think November, but one month isn't going to matter to markets at this point," noted Lawrence Gillum, fixed income strategist for LPL Financial. "There was some interesting discussion on lift-off though and it looks like the Committee remains divided. The future make-up of the Committee only adds uncertainty to when lift-off will actually take place."

    Wild card: While the inflation outlook was raised in the near term after much discussion, Fed staff continue to predict the recent acceleration is "transitory." CPI data on Wednesday showed headline prices rising by 5.4% Y/Y in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of annual increases of 5% or more. However, stocks continued to climb during the session as traders appeared to spend much of the last few weeks positioning themselves for a flaming number. (65 comments)


    Cryptocurrency
    Bitcoin business
    The SEC could decide as early as Monday to allow American ETFs to hold Bitcoin (BTC-USD) futures, making it easier for small investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency. The agency is expected to approve an amended filing submitted by ProShares on Friday to launch the ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF. Several other ETF firms have also filed to launch similar funds and will be watching closely to see whether regulators green light ProShares' plan.

    Snapshot: Many investors have been anticipating the ability to trade crypto assets through exchange traded funds, but the SEC has yet to allow ETFs to directly hold things like Bitcoin. In the past, the agency has cited investor hazards like liquidity, manipulation and extreme price swings. The list of issuers that are currently anticipating the approval include names such as Valkyrie, Galaxy Digital, VanEck, ETF Series Solutions, ARK Invest, Invesco and ProShares.

    "Before investing in a fund that holds Bitcoin futures contracts, make sure you carefully weigh the potential risks and benefits," the SEC wrote in a tweet late Thursday. "Check out our Investor Bulletin to learn more."

    Movement: All the hype is adding to bullish crypto sentiment as Bitcoin traded above $60,000. At that level, the token has doubled in value this year and is near April's record high of $64,895. While the proposed Bitcoin-futures ETFs won't invest directly in crypto, issuers aim to trade futures contracts based on Bitcoin. (77 comments)


    U.S. Indices
    Dow +1.6% to 35,295. S&P 500 +1.8% to 4,471. Nasdaq +2.2% to 14,897. Russell 2000 +1.7% to 2,271. CBOE Volatility Index -13.2% to 16.3.

    S&P 500 Sectors
    Consumer Staples +1.2%. Utilities +1.4%. Financials +1.2%. Telecom -0.4%. Healthcare +0.8%. Industrials +1.9%. Information Technology +2.6%. Materials +3.6%. Energy +1.2%. Consumer Discretionary +3.6%.

    World Indices
    London +2.% to 7,234. France +2.6% to 6,728. Germany +2.5% to 15,587. Japan +3.6% to 29,069. China -0.6% to 3,572. Hong Kong +2.% to 25,331. India +2.1% to 61,306.

    Commodities and Bonds
    Crude Oil WTI +4.% to $82.53/bbl. Gold +0.6% to $1,768.2/oz. Natural Gas -2.6% to 5.422. Ten-Year Treasury Yield -0.1% to 130.95.

    Forex and Cryptos
    EUR/USD +0.29%. USD/JPY +1.81%. GBP/USD +1.02%. Bitcoin +11.8%. Litecoin +5.4%. Ethereum +8.3%. Ripple -1.5%.

    Top Stock Gainers
    Xiaobai Maimai (NASDAQ:HX) +107%. Jasper Therapeutics (NASDAQ:JSPR) +106%. Adamas Pharma (NASDAQ:ADMS) +75%. Protagonist Therapeutics (NASDAQ:PTGX) +70%. Huadi International Group (NASDAQ:HUDI) +69%.

    Top Stock Losers
    Aerocentury (NYSE:ACY) -32%. Aerovate Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AVTE) -30%. Cortexyme (NASDAQ:CRTX) -28%. Futu Holdings (NASDAQ:FUTU) -27%. Pavmed (NASDAQ:PAVM) -26%.

    Where will the markets be headed next week? Current trends and ideas? Add your thoughts to the comments section.

    Seeking More
    Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

    Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.


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  12. #1687  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    8,761
    AVDL is tanking. What happened there?
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  13. #1688  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,233
    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    AVDL is tanking. What happened there?

    Delay in the results..Buying op IMO.
    I still love it.

    
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    Top News
    Squid millions
    Shutterstock
    Squid Game, the latest megahit from Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), could be worth nearly $900M for the streaming giant, according to an internal document from the company. The nine-episode horror-thriller has risen sharply in the headlines since its debut on September 17, and ranks No. 1 in several countries, including the United States. The South Korean show involves heavily indebted people who compete in children's games for a chance to win big cash prizes, though the challenges come with fatal consequences.

    By the numbers: Netflix measures the success of its shows in "impact value," which combines data like how often a show is watched by new customers, existing customers, its cost efficiency and impact on long-term viewership. Squid Game has created about $891M in "impact value," making it a highly profitable series for the streaming giant. It only costs the company around $2.4M per episode, meaning the entire first season had production expenses of just $21.4M (41.7x in efficiency).

    About 132M people have watched at least two minutes of Squid Game in the show's first 23 days, blowing past the 82M Netflix record set by Bridgerton. Netflix also estimates that 89% of people who started the show watched at least 75 minutes (more than one episode) and 66% of viewers, or 87M people, have finished the series in the first 23 days. That means subscribers have spent over 1.4B hours watching the show, which is more than double the total hours watched for Bridgerton.
    Market movement: The viewership figures could go a long way for Netflix, which reported its slowest pace of subscriber additions since 2013 in the first half of the year. In fact, the stock is up 7% since Squid Game was released on Sept. 17 (check out the chart above), and many analysts expect the show to boost Q3 earnings, which the company will release after the bell tomorrow. Squid Game has already resulted in Baird, Truist, KeyBanc and others to raise their price target on shares, while J.P. Morgan believes net subscriber adds will come in around 3.5M for the quarter and 8.5M for Q4.



    Media
    Hollywood shutdown averted
    Meanwhile... a strike that would have disrupted TV and movie production nationwide has been avoided at the eleventh hour. Over the weekend, a three-year deal was struck between the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE), which includes film crews across the country, and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), which represents major Hollywood studios. The developments could have severely impacted the operations of streamers like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), as well as major film studio stocks like Disney (NYSE:DIS), Universal (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Warner Bros. (NYSE:T) and Sony (NYSE:SONY).

    What's in the contract? A 10-hour turnaround between shifts, a weekend rest period of 54 hours, increased health and pension plans, a 3% rate increase every year for the duration of the contract, and higher penalties for companies that don't provide meal breaks. Included in the deal are a wide swath of industry workers, ranging from prop makers and makeup artists to camera operators and studio mechanics. The IATSE acts on behalf of 150,000 members in the U.S. and Canada (60,000 of them are currently covered by contracts being renegotiated).

    "This is a Hollywood ending," IATSE International President Matthew Loeb said in a statement. "Our members stood firm. They're tough and united. We went toe to toe with some of the richest and most powerful entertainment and tech companies in the world, and we have now reached an agreement with the AMPTP that meets our members’ needs."

    Outlook: Changing dynamics in the labor market have put employees in the driver's seat and have allowed unions to flex their muscles. 10,000 workers at John Deere (DE) went on strike last Thursday over wages and benefits, joining the industrial action seen at Kellogg (K), where 1,400 workers walked off the job because of seven-day work weeks and a two-tier retirement system. A Hollywood strike would have hit studios hard as they recover from theater closures and pandemic shutdowns, and could have led many shows to shorten, postpone or cancel new seasons.


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    Global
    China's slowing growth
    Power shortages, COVID outbreaks, supply chain problems, industry crackdowns and the China Evergrande (OTCPK:EGRNF) debt crisis all weighed on China's economy in the third quarter. Data released overnight showed that GDP grew a disappointing 4.9% Y/Y, missing expectations for a 5.2% expansion, and marking the weakest clip since Q3 of 2020. That comes after a blazing 18.3% growth rate recorded in Q1 and the 7.9% seen in the three months ending in June.

    Quote: "The domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven," National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui said at a news briefing.

    China was the only major global economy to grow annually during the pandemic-induced slowdown (its economy expanded 2.3% in 2020). The nation was also quick to pare back stimulus enacted in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic last year, while Beijing's policymakers have so far brushed off economic headwinds, saying they wouldn't resort to liquidity or cutting rates to drive up the growth rate in Q4. China is targeting a full-year GDP target of 6% or more for 2021 and estimates even stretch to growth of more than 8%.

    Some analysts feel differently: "Most of the [negative] factors are policy-driven... the economy is having a lot of pain points and these pain points are not going away soon because policies are here to stay, and therefore it will continue into 2022," said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING. "We expect more measures to shore up growth, including ensuring ample liquidity in the interbank market, accelerating infrastructure development and relaxing some aspects of credit and real estate policies," added Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics.


    Tech
    Into the Metaverse
    Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is diving deeper into Metaverse as the company heads up a recruitment drive to create a new digital world. It plans on hiring 10,000 high-skilled engineers across the European Union over the next five years, calling the effort, "one of Facebook's most pressing priorities." Resumes will be looked at in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands and Ireland.

    What is the Metaverse? CEO Mark Zuckerberg describes it as an "embodied internet," which will be a major driver of new technology investment. The term was coined in the 1992 dystopian novel Snow Crash, where it refers to how a virtual reality-based Internet might evolve in the near future. Today, it's widely used to describe immersive, shared digital worlds, where multiple people can interact in a 3D environment.

    "We believe this is going to be the successor of the mobile Internet," Zuckerberg said on a Q2 earnings call in July. "The defining quality of the Metaverse is presence: creation, avatars, and digital objects. In addition to being the next generation of the Internet, the Metaverse is also going to be the next chapter of us as a company."

    Go deeper: Last month, Facebook unveiled plans to invest $50M to develop the Metaverse, but noted that parts of the new platform could take 10 to 15 years to fully develop. Other companies already have an early foothold in the space like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) and Fortnite maker Epic Games. Facebook is also building out products that can be shared with the new technology, like a VR remote work appthat allows Oculus users to hold meetings in their avatars.


    Today's Markets
    In Asia, Japan +1.7%. Hong Kong +0.3%. China -0.1%. India +0.8%.
    In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -0.5%.
    Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude +0.4% at $82.63. Gold -0.3% at $1762.50. Bitcoin -0.3% at $60945.
    Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 1.62%

    Today's Economic Calendar
    9:15 Industrial Production
    10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
    2:15 PM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
    4:00 PM Treasury International Capital

    Companies reporting earnings today »

    What else is happening...
    Bitcoin (BTC-USD) retakes $60K on news of imminent Bitcoin Futures ETFs.

    Zillow's (NASDAQ:Z) home-flipping service pauses to work through backlog.

    Banks feel wage inflation as competition for talent rises.

    What's next for movies? Morgan Stanley does a cinema sweep.

    Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to show the Mac still matters in an iPhone world.

    U.S. households likely to pay much higher heating bills this winter.

    Airlines losing pricing power with demand easing - Sector Watch.

    Seeking More
    Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

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  14. #1689  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    8,761
    As I mentioned last week, I sold off my Tesla shares....and now it's over $875. Unbelievable.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #1690  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,233
    [QUOTE=CoachCB;13619294]As I mentioned last week, I sold off my Tesla shares....and now it's over $875. Unbelievable.[/QUOTE

    Gezzzz..that blows CB
    We finally moved to the FH.. turned out real nice.
    2-2 in the NFL again 15 and 9 on the year.




    Global Market Comments
    October 18, 2021
    Fiat Lux
    Featured Trade:
    (MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE GOOD NEWS IS HERE)
    (GS), (MS), (JPM), (BAC), (C), (BLK), (TLT), (BRKB), (SPY)



    The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Good News is HereHere’s the good news.

    You know those pesky seasonals that have been a drag of the market for the past five months? You know, that sell in May and go away thing?

    It’s about to end, vanish, and vaporize.

    We are only ten trading days away from when seasonals turn hugely positive on November 1.

    On top of that, the pandemic is rapidly receding, the economy reaccelerating, and workers are returning to the workforce. The action Biden took with the west coast ports should unlock the logjam there. It all sounds like a Goldilocks scenario.

    The ports issue has nothing to do with the pandemic. The truth is that with 6% GDP growth, the US economy is growing faster than it has ever done before. That means we are buying a lot more stuff, more than our antiquated infrastructure can handle. Unlock the ports, and growth could accelerate even further.

    Bitcoin has been on fire as well, doubling since August 1. The focus has been on the launch of the first crypto futures ETF, which may happen as early as today. All of the trade alerts we issued in this space have been total home runs. (Click here for our Bitcoin Letter).

    As a result, Bitcoin is within striking range of hitting a new all-time high at $66,000. Break that, and we could see a melt-up straight to $100,000.

    Want another reason to be bullish? The Millennial generation is about to inherit $68 trillion by 2030. Guess where that is going? Bitcoin and all other risk assets, as younger investors tend to be more aggressive.

    So, what to do about all of this?

    Keep doing more of what’s working. Buy financials and Bitcoin and sell short bonds. Wait for tech to bottom out at the next interest rate peak, then load the boat there once again.

    Make as much money as you can now because 2022 could be a year of diminished expectations. Stocks might rise by only 15% compared to this year’s 30% torrid rate.

    As for Bitcoin, that is a horse of a different color.

    CPI Hits 5.4%, and was up 0.4% in September, a high for this cycle. This time, it was food and energy that took the lead. Used car prices, which went ballistic last month, showed a decline. Supply chain problems are wreaking havoc and those with inventory can charge whatever they want. The Fed thinks this is transitory, the bond market doesn’t. Sell rallies in the (TLT).

    Weekly Jobless Claims Plunge to 293,000, a new post-pandemic low. With delta in retreat, higher wages are luring people back to work to deal with massive supply chain problems. This may be the beginning of the big drop in unemployment to pre-pandemic levels. Stocks will love it. Buy stocks on dips.

    Big Banks Report Blowout Earnings and are firing on all cylinders. The best is yet to come. Interest rates are rising, default rates are falling, profit margins expanding, and the economy is growing at a record rate. Buy (JPM), BAC), and (C) on dips.

    The Nonfarm Payroll Bombs in September, coming in at only 194,000. That follows a weak 235,000 in August. The headline Unemployment Rate dropped to a new post-pandemic low of 4.8%, down from a peak of 22%. It’s not a soggy economy that’s causing this, but a shortage of people to hire. Some 10 million workers have gone missing from the American economy, and many may never come back.

    Bitcoin Soars to $61,000, a five-month high, putting the previous $66,000 high in range. With ten crypto ETFs waiting in the wings for SEC approval, a flood of money is about to hit the sector. Several countries are now considering the adoption of Bitcoin as a national currency after El Salvador’s move. Keep buying Bitcoin dips. Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter followers are making a fortune.

    Oil (USO) Tops $80, after OPEC limits production increases to 400,000 barrels a day, dragging on the stocks market. Prices are approaching levels that will restrain growth. Pandemic under-investment and distribution problems have triggered a short squeeze. There will be many spikes on the way to zero.

    Fed Minutes Show Taper to Start in November, as discussed in the September meeting. They may start with $15 billion a month in fewer bond purchases. The inflation boogie man is getting bigger with the 5.4% print on Tuesday. Sell rallies in the (TLT)

    JOLTS Comes in at 10.4 million indicating that the labor shortage is getting more severe. Millions are still staying home for fear of catching covid. There is also a massive skills disparity resulting from decades of under-investment in education.

    IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 5.9%. Supply chains, delta, inflation worries, and vaccine access are to blame.

    US Dollar (UUP) Hits One-Year High on rising interest rates. This will continue for the foreseeable future. Stand aside from the (UUP) as this is a countertrend trade. We may be only 15 basis points away from an interim peak in rates at 1.76% for the ten-year.

    My Ten-Year View

    When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!


    My Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch saw a heroic +8.91% gain so far in October. My 2021 year-to-date performance soared to 81.51%. The Dow Average was up 15.4% so far in 2021.

    Figuring that we are either at, or close to a market bottom, and being a man of my convictions, I kept 90% invested in financial stocks all the wall until the October 15 options expirations. Those include (MS), (GS), (JPM), (BLK), (BRKB), (BAC), and (C).

    The payday was big and more than covered earlier in the month stop-losses in (SPY) and (DIS). I quick trip by the Volatility Index (VIX) to $29, then back to $15 was a big help.

    That brings my 12-year total return to 511.06%, some 2.00 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period. My 12-year average annualized return now stands at an unbelievable 43.19%, easily the highest in the industry.

    My trailing one-year return popped back to positively eye-popping 119.57%. I truly have to pinch myself when I see numbers like this. I bet many of you are making the biggest money of your long lives.

    We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 45 million and rising quickly and deaths topping 725,000, which you can find here.

    The coming week will be slow on the data front.

    On Monday, October 18 at 8:15 AM, Industrial Production for September is published. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reports.

    On Tuesday, October 19 at 8:00 AM, the Housing Starts for September are released. Netflix (NFLX) reports.

    On Wednesday, October 20 at 7:30 AM, Crude Oil Stocks are announced. Tesla (TSLA) and IMB (IBM) report.

    On Thursday, October 21 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for September are printed. Alaska Air (ALK) and Southwest Air (LUV) report.

    On Friday, October 22 at 8:45 AM, the US Markit Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI is out. American Express (AXP) reports. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count are disclosed.

    As for me, I normally avoid the diplomatic circuit, as the few non-committal comments and soggy appetizers I get aren’t worth the investment of time.

    But I jumped at the chance to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China with San Francisco consul general Gao Zhansheng.


    Happy Birthday, China!
    When I casually mention that I survived the Cultural Revolution from 1968 to 1976 and interviewed major political figures like Premier Deng Xiaoping, who launched the Middle Kingdom into the modern era, and his predecessor, Zhou Enlai, modern-day Chinese are enthralled.

    It’s like going to a Fourth of July party and letting drop that I palled around with Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin.

    Five minutes into the great hall, and I ran into my old friend Wen. She started out her career with the Chinese Intelligence Service and had made the jump to the Foreign Ministry, as all their best people did. Wen was passing through town with a visiting trade mission.
    When I was touring China in the seventies as the guest of the Bank of China, Wen was assigned as my guide and translator, and we kept in touch over the years. I was assigned a bodyguard who doubled as the driver of a tank-like Russian sedan, a Volga.

    The Cultural Revolution was on, and while the major cities were safe, we ran the risk of running into a renegade band of xenophobic Red Guards, with potentially fatal consequences.

    By the time Wen married, China had already adopted its one-child policy. As much as she wanted more children, she understood the government’s need to adopt such a drastic policy. Without it, the population today would be 1.6 billion, not 1.2 billion, and all of the money that went into buying capital goods would have been spent on food imports instead.
    The country would have stagnated at its 1980 per capita income of $100/year. There would have been no Chinese economic miracle. She was very proud of her one son, who was a software engineer at Microsoft (MSFT) in Beijing.
    I asked if she recalled our first trip together and a dark cloud came over her face. We were touring a section of Fuzhou in southern China when three policemen marched up. They started shouting at Wen that we were in a restricted section of the city where foreigners were not allowed. They started mercilessly beating her with clubs.
    I was about to intercede when my late wife, Kyoko, let go with a blood-curdling tirade in Japanese that froze them in their tracks. I saw from the fear in their faces that she had ignited their wartime fear of Japanese authority and the dreaded Kempeitai, or secret police, and they beat a hasty retreat.
    To this day, I’m not exactly sure what Kyoko said. We took Wen back to our hotel room and bandaged her up, putting ice on the giant goose egg on her head. When I left, I gave her my paperback copy of HG Well’s A Short History of the World, which she treasured, as the book was then banned in China.
    Wen mentioned that she was approaching the mandatory retirement age of 60, and soon would be leaving the Foreign Service. I suggested she move to San Francisco, which offered a thriving Chinese community.
    She laughed. No matter how much prices had fallen, she could never afford anything here on a Chinese civil servant’s salary.
    I asked Wen if she still had the book I gave her nearly five decades ago. She said it had become a treasured family heirloom and was being passed down through the generations.
    As she smiled, I notice the faint scar on her eyebrow from that unpleasantness so long ago.

    Good Luck and Good Trading
    John Thomas
    CEO & Publisher
    The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader


    Kyoko and I in Beijing in 1977








    Quote of the Day“He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither,” said Benjamin Franklin, the Revolutionary War US ambassador to Paris and signer of the Declaration of Independence.





    This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
    The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
    For full disclosures click here at:

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

    The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
    and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
    are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
    The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C)
    is protected by the United States Copyright Office

    Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #1691  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    8,761
    Post up some FH pics.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #1692  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,233
    Quote Originally Posted by CoachCB View Post
    Post up some FH pics.

    I'll send you a wire link eventually CB...we're still unpacking pretty much.


    Global Market Comments
    October 19, 2021
    Fiat Lux

    SPECIAL BITCOIN ISSUEFeatured Trade:(WHERE DOES BITCOIN GO FROM HERE?)
    ($BTCUSD), (ETH), (CRPT), (BLOK), (MSTR)


    Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here?I first got involved with bitcoin in 2011, when a subscriber wanting to thank me for a spectacular investment performance GAVE me ten Bitcoin. They we then worth $1 each.

    Then, I forgot about them. When they appreciated to $100 in 2013, I decided to sell them and take the family out to dinner at The French Laundry, the best restaurant in California’s Napa Valley. I thought I was a genius.

    Back then, early in the life of Bitcoin, theft was rampant, and exchange regularly went bankrupt. So cashing in on my windfall wasn’t such an unreasonable thing to do.

    That turned out to be the most expensive dinner of my life. If I had kept the ten Bitcoin, they would be worth today over $600,000. Maybe I’m not such a genius after all.

    Unless you have been living in a cave for the past five years, you have probably heard of Bitcoin.

    By now, you have decided that it is the greatest money-making opportunity of all time or the greatest scam since Carlo Ponzi amassed a fortune selling international postal coupons in 1922.

    Some things are certain. Bitcoin will change the financial system beyond all recognition. It will revolutionize banking and investment. And it will vastly accelerate the digitization of the global economy to everyone’s benefit.

    After reading this book, you may or may not want to invest in Bitcoin. However, a working knowledge of what it is and how it works will become essential for everyone as the 21st century unfolds.

    For s start, Bitcoin, other cryptos, and future cryptos yet to be invented, will save $1 trillion a year in transaction costs in the global economy. Who will be the beneficiary of this bounty? You, me, and all the companies we invest in.

    It is certain that some form of current or future crypto will be a stepping stone to a global digital currency, not just for emerging nations like El Salvador, but all nations.

    And here is the most interesting thing. The eventual impact of crypto on our lives hasn’t even been imagined yet.

    Going back to my Defense Department days, I was one of a handful who was present at the birth of the Internet and the similarities are legion. A few clever people were aware of bits and corners of the Internet back in 1989, but nobody had a big picture.

    Long term predictions might as well have been science fiction. Insiders were buying up domain names for a dollar each, such as Mcdonalds . com, whitehouse . com, and sex . com. The McDonald’s site was later sold to the fastfood company for $10 million.

    When the Internet began mass adoption in 1995, no one imagined that every taxi company in the world would be out of business in 15 years. New York City taxi medallions once worth $1 million became worthless, prompting many suicides.

    Nor did prime downtown apartment owners all over the world expect they could rent their homes for astronomical daily rates through Airbnb (ABNB). They didn’t even expect that a small startup named Netflix (NFLX) would stream videos online, wiping out Blockbuster Video.

    Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto, a pseudonymous person or team who outlined the technology in a 2008 white paper. Nobody knows for sure. It might even be a US government agency that invented Bitcoin. It’s an appealingly simple concept: bitcoin is digital money that allows for secure, trustless, peer-to-peer transactions on the internet.

    Unlike other payment services, like ******’s Venmo (PYPL), which rely on the traditional financial system for permission to transfer money and on existing debit/credit accounts, bitcoin is decentralized: any two people, anywhere in the world, can send bitcoin to each other without the involvement of a bank, government, or other institution.

    Every transaction involving Bitcoin is tracked on the blockchain, which is like a bank’s ledger, or log of customers’ funds going in and out of the bank. In simple terms, it’s a record of every transaction ever made using bitcoin. Think of blockchain as a chain of blocks of code, each one of which contains millions of lines of code.

    Unlike a bank’s ledger, the Bitcoin blockchain is distributed across the entire network. No company, country, or third party is in control of it; and anyone can become part of that network. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is part of that network, otherwise known as a “node.”
    There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins. This is digital money that cannot be inflated or manipulated in any way.
    It isn’t necessary to buy an entire bitcoin: you can buy just a fraction of one if that’s all you want or need. To open my own crypto wallet, I started with an initial buy of one ten thousand of a Bitcoin, or $10. Now, I’m trading in the millions.
    Whatever the outcome of Bitcoin is, one thing is certain. None of our lives will be the same.





    Quote of the Day"The less prudent you find the actions of others, the more prudent you need to act yourself," said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.



    This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
    The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
    For full disclosures click here at:

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

    The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
    and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
    are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
    The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C)
    is protected by the United States Copyright Office


    Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.

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  18. #1693  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,233
    Top News
    BTC-ETF
    Shutterstock
    The crypto industry is celebrating a long-awaited milestone today as the first exchange-traded fund linked to Bitcoin (BTC-USD) launches on the New York Stock Exchange. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) does not invest directly in Bitcoin, but will rather hold futures contracts of the digital currency - meaning it will have a very high correlation with Bitcoin, but won't mirror the token's exact value. It will also cost more to own the fund, but some may be willing to pay up for institutional level custody, execution and security.

    Bigger picture:
    The new approval could bring more investors into the crypto market as it comes with a more regulated structure. That means 401(k)s and IRAs could now have an allocation of the sector, while the ETFs will also be available through brokerage accounts. Until now, Bitcoin has been a favorite among tech-savvy or younger traders, who are more comfortable with its technology, as well as the risks or price swings involved with their investments. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 1.7% to $62,324.

    While the SEC has recently taken a tougher stance on crypto, the ETF green light highlights what structure the agency is currently able to tolerate. Bitcoin futures trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while Bitcoin-related ETFs have already launched in other countries like Canada. There are also concerns about purchasing Bitcoin through digital currency exchanges, given worries about hackers or losing so-called private keys.

    Go deeper: The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF might be the first to list in the U.S., but it sure won't be the last. Grayscale Investments is jumping on the train with plans to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC) - which has $38.7B assets under management - into a spot ETF. Other issuers that are excited about the recent approval include names like Valkyrie, Galaxy Digital, VanEck, ETF Series Solutions and ARK Invest. (13 comments)


    Earnings
    Under the microscope
    Stock index futures are inching up, with contracts linked to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ahead by 0.3%, before Week 2 of earnings season kicks into high gear. Investors will be particularly parsing reports this week, as results from the banks and financials only provided metrics on spending and lending in the economy. As other factors continue to bite businesses and consumers alike, it will be crucial to see how supply chain disruptions, inflation, higher energy costs and labor shortages affected the biggest U.S. corporations in Q3.

    Before the bell: Procter & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Philip Morris (PM) and Halliburton (HAL).

    After the close: Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and United Airlines (UAL).

    "Whether we end up getting this finishing move at the index level this year or not will depend largely on retail participation, the message that Q3 earnings bring from a guidance standpoint, and the path of PMIs into year end," said Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.

    On the economic calendar: Clues on the state of the property market are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET. U.S. housing starts is expected to come in at a 1.621M annual pace in September, versus the 1.615M seen in August, which was much higher than expected. Builders have been caught between strong demand from buyers and shortages of labor and materials, and that could have a powerful multiplier effect throughout the economy.


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    Trending
    Hypertension
    Hypersonic missiles are on the radar following a report from the Financial Times stating that the country conducted a nuclear-capable glide vehicle test in August that "circled the globe in low-Earth orbit." The missile missed its target by "about two-dozen miles," but the "advanced space capability caught U.S. intelligence by surprise," according to the five unnamed sources. China has denied the latest headlines, claiming instead that it was carrying out a spacecraft check focused on reusable technology.

    Quote: "We watch closely China's development of armament, advanced capabilities and systems that will only increase tensions in the region," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Monday, without commenting on the report.

    According to the FT, this test showed two alarming advances by China. The first is a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System, which means the country could, in theory, send missiles over the South Pole (most U.S. defense systems are concentrated along the northern polar route). The second is the hypersonic glide vehicle itself, which flies at Mach 5 and is maneuverable in flight - compared to the fixed parabolic trajectory of ballistic missiles - making it harder to track.

    Policy steps: Advances in hypersonics by Beijing could strengthen concerns among those in Washington who think the U.S. needs to do more to stay ahead of China. The Biden administration is also in the middle of a Nuclear Posture Review, which is mandated by Congress to decide U.S. nuclear policy (how many weapons the country needs to stockpile, modernize, deploy, etc.) Some stocks that could benefit from additional hypersonic spending include Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Raytheon (NYSE:RTX), Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), Boeing (NYSE:BA), Kratos (NASDAQ:KTOS), L3Harris (NYSE:LHX) and Aerojet Rocketdyne (NYSE:AJRD). (6 comments)


    Central Banking
    Fed ethic rules?
    Fed Chair Jerome Powell sold up to $5M in a broad index fund as the economy was recovering from the pandemic last year. In a disclosure to the U.S Office of Government Ethics, Powell notes a sale from the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (NYSEARCA:VTI) of between $1M and $5M in October 2020. He also sold between $50K and $100K of the index on Sept. 21.

    Snapshot: The sale was first reported by The American Prospect, whose headline said Powell unloaded while the market was "tanking." Putting it in perspective, the Fed chief traded before a 1.5% pullback after the V-shaped recovery in shares from the pandemic nadir. The S&P then resumed its march higher, setting all-time highs. VTI is up more than 35% since he sold.

    In December, Powell sold smaller stakes, up to $250K, of the Causeway International Value Fund (CIVIX), the Goldman Sachs U.S. Equity Dividend and Premium Fund (GSPKX), the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). It was previously reported that Powell owned securities that the Fed was buying in 2020.

    Outlook: Powell's holdings and those of other Fed officials came under scrutiny earlier this year, with Dallas Fed Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed Eric Rosengren leaving their positions after trades within Fed rules that were nevertheless controversial. Those developments also led to Powell opening an ethics review on financial holdings. Separately, Senator Elizabeth Warren, who opposes Powell's renomination as Fed chairman, has called for SEC investigations into Kaplan, Rosengren and Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida for insider trading. (96 comments)


    Today's Markets
    In Asia, Japan +0.7%. Hong Kong +1.5%. China +0.7%. India -0.1%.
    In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris flat. Frankfurt +0.1%.
    Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +1.1% at $82.61. Gold +0.8% at $1779.90. Bitcoin +1.7% at $62324.
    Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.6%

    Today's Economic Calendar
    8:00 Fed's Daly Speech
    8:30 Housing Starts and Permits
    8:50 Fed's Harker: "C3: Cybersecurity Collaboration & Cooperation"
    8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
    1:00 PM Fed's Bostic: “Exploring Careers in Economics”
    2:50 PM Fed's Bostic: “Back to Work: Helping the Long-Term Unemployed”

    Companies reporting earnings today »

    What else is happening...
    New MacBooks (NASDAQ:AAPL) move away from chip partner Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

    Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) to hire 150K seasonal employees for holiday season.

    Disney (NYSE:DIS) dips as Barclays goes Neutral on streaming slowdown.

    FDA may authorize COVID vaccine 'mix and match' this week - NYT.

    Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) reportedly set to premiere its own server chips.

    Videogame sales rise for fifth straight month, paced by consoles.

    World's largest uranium producer to start physical uranium fund.

    Seeking More
    Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast

    Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.


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  19. #1694  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,233

    Global Market Comments
    October 20, 2021
    Fiat Lux
    Featured Trade:
    (THE HARD TRUTH BEHIND BUYING IN NOVEMBER)
    (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS)


    The Hard Truth Behind Buying in NovemberI am a big fan of buying straw hats in the dead of winter and umbrellas in the sizzling heat of the summer.
    I even load up on Christmas ornaments every January when they go on sale for ten cents on the dollar.
    There is a method to my madness.
    If I had a nickel for every time that I heard the term “Sell in May and go away,” I could retire. The flip side of that is just as valuable, “Buy in November and stand pat.”
    Oops, I already am retired!
    In any case, I thought that I would dig out the hard numbers and see how true this old trading adage is.
    It turns out that it is far more powerful than I imagined. According to the data in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, $10,000 invested at the beginning of May and sold at the end of October every year since 1950 would be showing a loss today.
    Amazingly, $10,000 invested every November 1 and sold at the end of April would today be worth $702,000, giving you a compound annual return of 7.10%!
    This is despite the fact that the Dow Average rocketed from $409 to $27,500 during the same time period, a gain of 62 times!
    My friends at the research house, NASDAQ Dorsey, Wright, who run a pretty powerful technical service of their own, (click here for their site) have parsed the data even further.
    Since 2000, the Dow has managed a feeble return of only 4%, while the long winter/short summer strategy generated a stunning 64%.
    Of the 62 years under study, the market was down in 25 May-October periods, but negative in only 13 of the November-April periods, and down only three times in the last 20 years!
    There have been just three times when the "good 6 months" have lost more than 10% (1969, 1973, and 2008), but with the "bad six months" time period, there have been 11 losing efforts of 10% or more.
    Being a long-time student of the American, and indeed, the global economy, I have long had a theory behind the regularity of this cycle.
    It’s enough to base a pagan religion around, like the once practicing Druids at Stonehenge.
    Up until the 1920s, we had an overwhelmingly agricultural economy. Farmers were always at maximum financial distress in the fall, when their outlays for seed, fertilizer, and labor were the greatest, but they had yet to earn any income from the sale of their crops.
    So they had to borrow all at once, placing a large cash call on the financial system as a whole. This is why we have seen so many stock market crashes in October. Once the system swallows this lump, it’s nothing but green lights for six months.
    After the cycle was set and easily identifiable by low-end computer algorithms, the trend became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Yes, it may be disturbing to learn that we ardent stock market practitioners might in fact be the high priests of a strange set of beliefs. But hey, some people will do anything to outperform the market.
    It is important to remember that this cyclicality is not 100% accurate, and you know the one time you bet the ranch, it won’t work. But you really have to wonder what investors are expecting when they buy stocks at these elevated levels, over $205 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
    Will company earnings multiples further expand from 18 to 19 or 20? Will the GDP suddenly reaccelerate from a 2% rate to the 4% expected by share prices when the daily sentiment indicators are pointing the opposite direction?
    I can’t wait to see how this one plays out.

    My Sources for Stock Tips is Interstellar



    Notice to Military SubscribersTo the dozens of subscribers in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Iraq, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service!
    I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out.
    Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from Southeast Asia five decades ago. In fact, employers have been given fantastic tax breaks and other incentives to hire you.
    I have but one request. No more subscriptions with .mil addresses, please. The Defense Department, the CIA, the NSA, Homeland Security, and the FBI do not look kindly on private newsletters entering the military network, even the investment kind, even ones from veterans like me.
    If you think civilian spam filters are tough, watch out for the military kind! And no, I promise that there are no secret messages embedded with the stock tips. “BUY” really does mean “BUY.” “Sell” means “Sell” too.
    If I did not know the higher-ups at these agencies, as well as the Joints Chiefs of Staff, I might be bouncing off the walls in a cell at Guantanamo by now wearing an orange jumpsuit.
    It also helps that many of the mid-level officers at these organizations have made a fortune with their meager government retirement funds following my advice. All I can say is that if the Baghdad Stock Exchange ever becomes liquid, I'm going to own it.
    Where would you guess the greatest concentration of readers The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is found? New York? Nope. London? Wrong. Chicago? Not even close.
    Try a ten-mile radius centered on Langley, Virginia, by a large margin.
    The funny thing is, half of the subscribing names coming in are Russian. I haven't quite figured that one out yet.
    Did we hire the entire KGB at the end of the cold war? If we did, it was a great move. Those guys were good. That includes you, Yuri.
    So, keep up the good work, and fight the good fight. But please, only subscribe to my letter with personal Gmail, Yahoo, or Hotmail addresses. That way my life can become a lot more boring.

    Oh, and by the way, Langley, you're behind on your bill. Please pay up, pronto, and I don't want to hear whining about any damn budget cuts!

    I Want My Mad Hedge Fund Trader!


    Quote of the Day"The time to worry about the Fed is not when they go from accommodative to neutral, it is when they go from neutral to tight," said Bill Miller, the legendary former chairman and chief investment officer of Legg Mason Capital Management.





    This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
    The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
    For full disclosures click here at:

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

    The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
    and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
    are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
    The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C)
    is protected by the United States Copyright Office

    Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.
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  20. #1695  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    8,761
    Do you own any BTC or crypto? I have .26 BTC and 1.55 ETH. I'm torn on selling it (then buying back in on the next dip). As far as being happy w/ profits, I'd be happy (I've more than doubled my buy in)....BUT, w/ all the "it'll go to $100k" predictions, I'm torn....
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  21. #1696  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Oregon Coast
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    Global Market Comments
    October 21, 2021
    Fiat Lux

    Featured Trade:(MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING IN 2022)


    My 20 Rules for Trading in 2022I usually try to catch three or four trend changes a year, which might generate 100-200 trades, and often come in frenzied bursts.

    Since I am one of the greatest tightwads that ever walked the planet, I only like to buy positions when we are at the height of despair and despondency, and traders are raining off the Golden Gate Bridge like a winter downpour.

    Similarly, I only like to sell when the markets are tripping on steroids and ecstasy and are convinced that they can live forever.



    Some 99% of the time, the markets are in the middle, and there is nothing to do but deep research and looking for the trend reversal and trade. That is the purpose of this letter.

    Over the five decades that I have been trading, I have learned a number of tried and true rules which have saved my bacon countless times. I will share them with you today.

    1) Don’t over trade. This is the number one reason why individual investors lose money. Look at your trades of the past year and apply the 90/10 rule. Dump the least profitable 90% and watch your performance skyrocket. Then aim for that 10%. Over-trading is a great early retirement plan for your broker, not you.

    2) Always use stops. Risk control is the measure of the good hedge fund trader. If you lose all your capital on the lemons, you can’t play when the great trades set up. Consider cash as having an option value. It's easier to dig yourself out of a small hole than a big one.

    3) Don’t forget to sell. Date, don’t marry your positions. Remember, hogs get fed and pigs get slaughtered. My late mentor, Barton Biggs, told me to always leave the last 10% of a move for the next guy.

    4) You don’t have to be a genius to play this game. If that was required, Wall Street would have run out of players a long time ago.

    If you employ risk control and stops, then you can be wrong 40% of the time, and still make a living. That’s a little better than a coin toss. If you are wrong only 30% of the time, you can make millions.

    If you are wrong a scant 20% of the time, you are heading a trading desk at Goldman Sachs. If you are wrong a scant 10% of the time, you are running a $20 billion hedge fund that the public only hears about when you pay $100 million for a pickled shark at a modern art auction.

    If someone says they are never wrong, as is often claimed in other newsletters and trade mentoring services, run a mile, because it is impossible. By the way, I was wrong 7% of the time in 2021. That’s what you’re paying for.

    5) This is hard work. Trading attracts a lot of wide-eyed, naïve, but lazy people because it appears so easy from the outside. You buy a stock, watch it go up, and make money. How hard is that?

    The reality is that successful investing requires twice as much work as a normal job. The more research you put into a trade, the more comfortable you will become, and the more profitable it will be. That’s what this letter is for.

    6) Don’t chase the market. If you do, it will turn back and bite you. Wait for it to come to you. If you miss the train, there will be another one along in minutes, hours, days, weeks, or months. Patience is a virtue.

    7) Limit Your Losses. When I put on a position, I calculate how much I am willing to lose to keep it. I then put a stop just below there. If I get triggered, I just walk away. Emotion never enters the equation, just cold, steely-eyed discipline.

    Only enter a trade when the risk/ reward is in your favor. You can start at 3:1. That means only risk a dollar to potentially make three.

    8) Don’t confuse a bull market with brilliance. I am not smart, just old as dirt. Nothing new ever happens, just endless repetition of the old stuff. But is this 1921, or 1929?

    9) Tape this quote from the great economist and early hedge fund trader of the 1930’s, John Maynard Keynes, to your computer monitor: "Markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent." Hang around long enough, and you will see this proven time and again (ten-year Treasuries at 0.31%?!).

    10) Don’t believe the media. I know, I used to be one of them. There is a reason why they are talking heads and not billionaire traders. Look for the hard data, the numbers, and you’ll see that often the talking heads, the paid industry apologists, and politicians don’t know what they are talking about (the Gulf oil spill will create a dead zone for decades?).

    Average out all the public commentary, and half are bullish and half bearish at any given time. The problem is that they never tell you which one is right (that is my job). When they all go one way, the markets usually go the opposite direction.

    11) When you are running a long/short portfolio, 80% of your time is spent managing the shorts. If you don’t want to do the work, then cash beats a short any day of the week.

    12) Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right.

    13) Invest like a fundamentalist, execute like a technical analyst. This is what all the pros do.

    14) Use technical analysis only, and you will buy every rally, sell every dip, and end up broke. That said, learn what an “outside reversal” is, and who the heck is that Italian renaissance guy, Leonardo Fibonacci.

    15) The simpler a market approach, the better it works because more people understand it and buy it. Everyone talks about “buy low and sell high”, but few actually do it. All black boxes eventually blow up, if they were ever there in the first place.

    16) Markets are made up of people. Understand and anticipate how they think, and you will know what the markets are going to do.

    17) Understand what information is in the market and what isn’t and you will make more money.

    18) Do the hard trade, the one that everyone tells you that you are “Mad” to do. If you add a position and then throw up on your shoes afterwards, then you know you’ve done the right thing. This is why people started calling me “Mad” 40 years ago. (What? Japan was a huge buy in 1980? Tech stocks were a huge buy last summer?).

    19) If you are trying to get out of a hole, the first thing to do is quit digging and throw away the shovel. Sell everything. A blank position sheet can be invigorating ad illuminating.

    20) Making money in the market is an unnatural act, and fights against the tide of evolution.

    We, humans, are predators and hunters evolved to track game on the horizon of an African savanna. Modern humans are maybe 5 million years old, but civilization has been around for only 10,000 years.

    Our brains have not had time to make the adjustment. In the market, this means that if a stock has gone up, you believe it will continue to do so.

    This is why market tops and bottoms see volume spikes. To make money, you have to go against these innate instincts.

    Some people are born with this ability, while others can only learn it through decades of training. I am in the latter group.




    Great Hunter, Lousy Trader
    Great Trader

    Quote of the Day“Bonds are priced artificially because you’ve got some guy buying tens of billions of dollars’ worth a month. That will change at some point, and when it does, people are going to lose a lot of money,” said the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.



    This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
    The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
    For full disclosures click here at:

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

    The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
    and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
    are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
    The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C)
    is protected by the United States Copyright Office


    Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be su



    Reply With Quote  
     

  22. #1697  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Oregon Coast
    Posts
    5,233





    October 21, 2021

    Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


    A two-year wait is nearly over.Hilary Swift for The New York Times


    Second time’s the charm?

    After two years, a failed I.P.O., a plunging valuation and a pandemic that reset many workers’ relationships with the office, the co-working company WeWork will begin a new life today as a publicly traded company.

    WeWork argues it’s a better company now. It has renegotiated or exited some 500 leases this year, saving over $400 million, according to its C.E.O., Sandeep Mathrani. And its deal to go public via a merger with a SPAC, BowX, will provide $1.3 billion in new capital.

    It has significantly dialed back the ambitions of Adam Neumann, a founder and former C.E.O., who pitched WeWork as the future of … well, a lot of things. He spooked many inside and outside the company with what they viewed as reckless management before his ouster.

    But WeWork’s future remains murky. It is still burning cash as customers drop their membership fees in an era of remote working. SoftBank, the company’s biggest backer, faces an uphill climb just to break even on its multibillion-dollar investment. Once valued at $47 billion, WeWork is expected to trade at a market cap of around $8 billion. “I made a wrong decision,” Masa Son, SoftBank’s chief, said last year.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    And Neumann hasn’t gone away. He and WeWork’s other founder, Miguel McKelvey, are hosting a party this morning to celebrate the company going public, DealBook has confirmed. Neumann still owns an 11 percent stake in WeWork, and can observe board meetings starting next year. That raises questions about whether WeWork can ever escape his shadow.

    HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

    Donald Trump turns to a SPAC to back his media venture. The former president said he was teaming up with Digital World Acquisition Group to form a publicly traded media group to rival the “liberal media consortium.” Digital World is led by Patrick Orlando, a former Deutsche Bank executive.

    Shares in Evergrande plunge after a failed stake sale. The embattled Chinese real estate giant’s stock fell more than 13 percent after it announced the end of its efforts to sell part of its property services business. The company is now days away from officially declaring default.

    A twist in the Fed’s trading scandal. The central bank’s ethics office warned the Fed chair, Jay Powell, and regional bank presidents in March 2020 against trading in their personal accounts, though several later did, The Times’s Jeanna Smialek reports.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    Amazon faces another unionization movement. Workers at a Staten Island warehouse that was scrutinized over its workplace conditions said they would formally begin a labor organization drive. It comes after a similar campaign in Alabama failed, though Amazon was accused of improperly influencing the vote.

    Netflix workers log off in protest. Dozens of employees walked out of a company office in Los Angeles, while others ended work early, to voice their displeasure at Dave Chappelle’s recent comedy special, which they said promoted bigotry against transgender people.


    ****** pins a deal for Pinterest

    ****** has offered to buy Pinterest in a deal valued around $45 billion, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. If completed, the takeover would be the largest in the consumer internet industry over the past decade, topping Microsoft’s $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016 and Salesforce’s $27.7 billion acquisition of Slack last year.


    ADVERTISEMENT


    The move is part of PayPal’s goal to drive further into e-commerce — and to put it on a different path than its rival Square. Through Pinterest’s app, people can save images to digital pinboards and buy goods directly through “buyable pins.”

    “Sometimes we buy things that people don’t expect,” Dan Schulman, PayPal’s C.E.O., said last month, foreshadowing the Pinterest approach. In context, he was referring to the company’s $4 billion acquisition of Honey, a coupon payment platform, in 2019. Schulman has said that ****** aims to become a comprehensive “super app,” like those found in Asia. Investors are wary: PayPal’s shares fell 6 percent after news of the potential deal.

    “We are perplexed by this potential transaction, and see little or no strategic rationale,” Adam Jeffrey, an analyst at Truist, said, worrying that it could create conflict with PayPal’s other marketplace customers. He noted the deal’s rationale in some ways harkened back to eBay’s acquisition of ****** 20 years ago, which was unwound in 2015 so that ****** could more easily sign agreements with rivals to eBay.

    Fintech companies are flush with cash and using it for deals. Square has announced deals to buy the music streaming service Tidal for nearly $300 million and the “buy now, pay later” company Afterpay for $29 billion. And ****** recently acquired its own “buy now, pay later” company, Paidy, and iZettle, a payment processor.


    “DuPont attempted to dump its liabilities on Chemours, just as it dumped GenX and other forever chemicals into the Cape Fear River.”

    — Josh Stein, North Carolina’s state attorney general, who is suing Chemours and DuPont for dumping chemicals and using a “shell game” to shirk accountability.


    Crypto’s new highs and lows

    The price of Bitcoin set a new high yesterday, nearly hitting $67,000. The cryptocurrency has doubled over the past three months, with enthusiasm fueled by the launch of the first U.S. Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded fund this week, exposing a broader range of investors to the crypto world.


    Another E.T.F. is on the way. VanEck’s Bitcoin futures E.T.F. will become effective on Saturday, the company told DealBook. VanEck first filed for approval of a Bitcoin fund in 2017, and its E.T.F. could start trading on Monday. In its first two days of trading, the ProShares Bitcoin futures E.T.F. amassed assets of $1.1 billion.

    The focus on crypto is not all celebratory. Today, a group of top U.S. financial regulators will meet to discuss stablecoins ahead of a forthcoming Treasury Department report on oversight of the fast-growing assets. These cryptocurrencies, whose values are ostensibly pegged to stable assets like the dollar, are integral to transactions in the burgeoning world of crypto financial services because the volatility of Bitcoin and others are impractical for that purpose. Regulators fear that stablecoins could become a systemic risk as crypto and traditional markets increasingly entwine. The Treasury Department declined to comment on today’s meeting.

    Tethered to what? Last week, the C.F.T.C. ordered Tether, the issuer of the most popular dollar-backed stablecoin, to pay $41 million in fines for years of misleading statements about the assets backing its tokens. Yesterday, the activist short-seller Hindenburg Research offered a $1 million bounty for information about Tether’s reserves.


    Joe Manchin’s billionaire adviser

    Nelson Peltz, the billionaire financier famous for shaking up companies he invests in, told CNBC yesterday that he speaks with Senator Joe Manchin weekly. “Joe is the most important guy in D.C. — maybe the most important guy in America today,” Peltz said of the West Virginia Democrat, a key swing voter in a narrowly divided Congress. “I call him every week and say: ‘Joe, you’re doing great. Stay tough.’”

    Manchin’s powwows with Peltz raise questions for the senator, who has faced criticism from his party after The Times reported that he was pushing to block a key program in President Biden’s plan to combat climate change. The $150 billion clean electricity program would have rewarded utilities that shut down coal and natural gas plants in favor of greener energy, and penalized those that did not.

    The problem: Peltz’s investment firm, Trian Partners, is a big shareholder in General Electric, one of the largest managers of gas-fueled electricity plants. Peltz’s son-in-law Ed Garden, who is also a Trian partner, is a G.E. board member. Biden’s clean electricity program would have had a significant effect on G.E., which reported more than $17 billion in revenue from its power business last year, about three-quarters of which came from gas-power generation. (G.E. also has a growing renewable energy business, and some of Biden’s other climate proposals could benefit those operations.)

    A spokesperson for Peltz declined to comment. Manchin’s office did not return a request for comment.

    Will Manchin’s supporters be bothered by him getting advice from a Wall Street billionaire? Regardless, the fact is that West Virginia is one of the nation’s largest coal and natural gas producing states. On top of that, Manchin, as The Times has reported, owns a stake in a coal brokerage business he founded that is now run by his son.



    The $50 billion question about legacy admissions

    Amherst College announced yesterday that it would end legacy admissions, which give the children of alumni preferred treatment in the application process. It joins other selective schools, like M.I.T., Johns Hopkins and Caltech, in scrapping the practice.

    Elite schools say legacy admissions encourage alumni to donate more,but a study that tracked giving at 100 schools from 1998 to 2008 found no evidence of that. Still, schools with legacy admissions tend to attract higher alumni donations in general than others, possibly because they overselect from wealthy families.

    Amherst’s decision raises issues around the admissions process. And if the trend catches on, there could be a huge amount of money at stake. According to one survey, U.S. higher-education institutions pulled in nearly $50 billion in donations in the year to June 2020. Here are some of our questions about that money if others end legacy admissions:

    • How much money would alumni continue to donate, and if they don’t donate it to their alma mater, where will it go?
    • If alumni give less money, would schools with smaller endowments struggle to provide scholarships?
    • Would wealthy people refocus giving only to the most prestigious schools, or those that maintain legacy policies?

    What do you think will happen? Let us know at dealbook@nytimes.com. Include your name and location, and we may feature your response in a future newsletter.


    Enterprise Subscriptions

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    THE SPEED READ

    Deals

    • Blackstone will buy a majority stake in Spanx, the shapewear maker, at a $1.2 billion valuation. (WSJ)
    • The activist hedge fund Elliott Management is said to have amassed a big stake in the railroad operator Canadian National. (WSJ)
    • The gym operator Equinox, which owns SoulCycle, is reportedly in talks again to go public by merging with a SPAC. (Bloomberg)

    Policy

    • The White House is backing away from raising tax rates because of continued opposition by Senator Kyrsten Sinema. (NYT)
    • The F.D.A. formally authorized mixing and matching coronavirus vaccine booster shots. A doctor who received the J&J vaccine explains why she did just that. (NYT, WaPo Opinion)
    • Instead of a voucher-based system, would it be better if the government offered “universal basic rent”? (The Atlantic)

    Best of the rest

    • Tesla’s third-quarter profit quintupled from a year ago, to $1.6 billion. (NYT)
    • Initial sales of Aduhelm, the Alzheimer’s drug once feared as a threat to Medicare’s survival, came in well below expectations. (NYT)
    • The Gates Foundation pledged $120 million to help supply Covid pills to low-income countries. (NYT)
    • A crypto collective bought Martin Shkreli’s one-of-a-kind Wu-Tang Clan album for $4 million. (NYT)
    • This private equity firm has banned the word “deal” from its offices. (WSJ)


    Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

    We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.



    Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
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    Global Market Comments
    October 21, 2021
    Fiat Lux

    Featured Trade:(MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING IN 2022)


    My 20 Rules for Trading in 2022I usually try to catch three or four trend changes a year, which might generate 100-200 trades, and often come in frenzied bursts.

    Since I am one of the greatest tightwads that ever walked the planet, I only like to buy positions when we are at the height of despair and despondency, and traders are raining off the Golden Gate Bridge like a winter downpour.

    Similarly, I only like to sell when the markets are tripping on steroids and ecstasy and are convinced that they can live forever.



    Some 99% of the time, the markets are in the middle, and there is nothing to do but deep research and looking for the trend reversal and trade. That is the purpose of this letter.

    Over the five decades that I have been trading, I have learned a number of tried and true rules which have saved my bacon countless times. I will share them with you today.

    1) Don’t over trade. This is the number one reason why individual investors lose money. Look at your trades of the past year and apply the 90/10 rule. Dump the least profitable 90% and watch your performance skyrocket. Then aim for that 10%. Over-trading is a great early retirement plan for your broker, not you.

    2) Always use stops. Risk control is the measure of the good hedge fund trader. If you lose all your capital on the lemons, you can’t play when the great trades set up. Consider cash as having an option value. It's easier to dig yourself out of a small hole than a big one.

    3) Don’t forget to sell. Date, don’t marry your positions. Remember, hogs get fed and pigs get slaughtered. My late mentor, Barton Biggs, told me to always leave the last 10% of a move for the next guy.

    4) You don’t have to be a genius to play this game. If that was required, Wall Street would have run out of players a long time ago.

    If you employ risk control and stops, then you can be wrong 40% of the time, and still make a living. That’s a little better than a coin toss. If you are wrong only 30% of the time, you can make millions.

    If you are wrong a scant 20% of the time, you are heading a trading desk at Goldman Sachs. If you are wrong a scant 10% of the time, you are running a $20 billion hedge fund that the public only hears about when you pay $100 million for a pickled shark at a modern art auction.

    If someone says they are never wrong, as is often claimed in other newsletters and trade mentoring services, run a mile, because it is impossible. By the way, I was wrong 7% of the time in 2021. That’s what you’re paying for.

    5) This is hard work. Trading attracts a lot of wide-eyed, naïve, but lazy people because it appears so easy from the outside. You buy a stock, watch it go up, and make money. How hard is that?

    The reality is that successful investing requires twice as much work as a normal job. The more research you put into a trade, the more comfortable you will become, and the more profitable it will be. That’s what this letter is for.

    6) Don’t chase the market. If you do, it will turn back and bite you. Wait for it to come to you. If you miss the train, there will be another one along in minutes, hours, days, weeks, or months. Patience is a virtue.

    7) Limit Your Losses. When I put on a position, I calculate how much I am willing to lose to keep it. I then put a stop just below there. If I get triggered, I just walk away. Emotion never enters the equation, just cold, steely-eyed discipline.

    Only enter a trade when the risk/ reward is in your favor. You can start at 3:1. That means only risk a dollar to potentially make three.

    8) Don’t confuse a bull market with brilliance. I am not smart, just old as dirt. Nothing new ever happens, just endless repetition of the old stuff. But is this 1921, or 1929?

    9) Tape this quote from the great economist and early hedge fund trader of the 1930’s, John Maynard Keynes, to your computer monitor: "Markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent." Hang around long enough, and you will see this proven time and again (ten-year Treasuries at 0.31%?!).

    10) Don’t believe the media. I know, I used to be one of them. There is a reason why they are talking heads and not billionaire traders. Look for the hard data, the numbers, and you’ll see that often the talking heads, the paid industry apologists, and politicians don’t know what they are talking about (the Gulf oil spill will create a dead zone for decades?).

    Average out all the public commentary, and half are bullish and half bearish at any given time. The problem is that they never tell you which one is right (that is my job). When they all go one way, the markets usually go the opposite direction.

    11) When you are running a long/short portfolio, 80% of your time is spent managing the shorts. If you don’t want to do the work, then cash beats a short any day of the week.

    12) Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right.

    13) Invest like a fundamentalist, execute like a technical analyst. This is what all the pros do.

    14) Use technical analysis only, and you will buy every rally, sell every dip, and end up broke. That said, learn what an “outside reversal” is, and who the heck is that Italian renaissance guy, Leonardo Fibonacci.

    15) The simpler a market approach, the better it works because more people understand it and buy it. Everyone talks about “buy low and sell high”, but few actually do it. All black boxes eventually blow up, if they were ever there in the first place.

    16) Markets are made up of people. Understand and anticipate how they think, and you will know what the markets are going to do.

    17) Understand what information is in the market and what isn’t and you will make more money.

    18) Do the hard trade, the one that everyone tells you that you are “Mad” to do. If you add a position and then throw up on your shoes afterwards, then you know you’ve done the right thing. This is why people started calling me “Mad” 40 years ago. (What? Japan was a huge buy in 1980? Tech stocks were a huge buy last summer?).

    19) If you are trying to get out of a hole, the first thing to do is quit digging and throw away the shovel. Sell everything. A blank position sheet can be invigorating ad illuminating.

    20) Making money in the market is an unnatural act, and fights against the tide of evolution.

    We, humans, are predators and hunters evolved to track game on the horizon of an African savanna. Modern humans are maybe 5 million years old, but civilization has been around for only 10,000 years.

    Our brains have not had time to make the adjustment. In the market, this means that if a stock has gone up, you believe it will continue to do so.

    This is why market tops and bottoms see volume spikes. To make money, you have to go against these innate instincts.

    Some people are born with this ability, while others can only learn it through decades of training. I am in the latter group.




    Great Hunter, Lousy Trader
    Great Trader

    Quote of the Day“Bonds are priced artificially because you’ve got some guy buying tens of billions of dollars’ worth a month. That will change at some point, and when it does, people are going to lose a lot of money,” said the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.



    This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
    The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
    For full disclosures click here at:

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

    The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
    and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
    are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
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    is protected by the United States Copyright Office


    Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be su



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  23. #1698  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozzie View Post
    At some point the party and high ranking members will be very happy $$$ with chunks they've already extracted.
    For BABA it's been a "if you can't beat um have them join in".....$$$$

    greed is universal.
    ha, J Ma sighting in Hong Kong, lol


    who knew baba would be a value play;

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/...lation-2021-10





    finished watching Squid Games a week ago, the ending scene had an interesting line....and for whatever reason Munger came to mind


    contestant 001 :

    Do you know what people with no money have in common with people with too much money. That living isnt fun


    dunno, Charlie seems to like to make money.

    BABA reports Nov 3rd

    https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/baba/earnings-calendar
    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  24. #1699  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Oregon Coast
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    5,233
    Quote Originally Posted by Ricboff View Post
    ha, J Ma sighting in Hong Kong, lol


    who knew baba would be a value play;

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/...lation-2021-10





    finished watching Squid Games a week ago, the ending scene had an interesting line....and for whatever reason Munger came to mind


    contestant 001 :

    Do you know what people with no money have in common with people with too much money. That living isnt fun


    dunno, Charlie seems to like to make money.

    BABA reports Nov 3rd

    https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/baba/earnings-calendar

    I like the new chip Idea....The CCP guys got their chucks of BABA..MA a Co figured out how to deal with the CCP alright.

    I will say BABA's been a very painful trip at times over the past year (I bought a small amount at 280) buying in the 150's then seeing it dip to 139.00 made me feel more than ill.... I did bring my average down a good amount now.

    Hope you're well Ricoff..Is your son killing it in LA?









    Global Market Comments
    October 22, 2021
    Fiat Lux

    Featured Trade:(OCTOBER 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
    (DIS), (TLT), (TBT), (FXI), (BABA), (BIDU), (JD), (USO), (JPM), (MS), (GS), (BITO), ($BTCUSD)

    October 20 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&ABelow please find subscribers’ Q&A for the October 20 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from the safety of Silicon Valley.

    Q: Why are stocks so high? Won’t inflation hurt companies?
    A: Inflation hurts bonds (TLT), not companies, which is why we are short the bond market and have been short for most of this year. Inflation actually helps companies because it allows them to raise prices at a faster rate. The ability to raise prices is the best that it’s been in 45 years, and that is enabling them to either maintain or increase profit margins.
    Q: Where is all this liquidity coming from to drive the stocks high after the Fed ends Quantitative easing?
    A: In the last 20 years, the liquidity of the US has gone from 6% of GDP to 47% of GDP. That is an enormous increase, and most of that money has gone into stocks and real estate, which is why both have been on a tear for the last 11 years. And I expect that to continue; the Fed isn’t even hinting at taking liquidity out of the system until well into 2023. On top of that, you have corporate profit exploding from $2 trillion last year to $10 trillion this year, adding another $8 trillion to the system, and outpacing any Fed taper by a five to one margin. Corporations alone are using these profits to buy back more than $1 trillion of their own stock this year.
    Q: I’m hearing so much about the supply chain problems these days. Is that just a short-term fixable problem or a long-term structural one?
    A: Absolutely it’s short-term. This actually isn’t a pandemic-related problem but a private capital investment one. It’s being caused by the record growth of the US economy which is sucking in more imports than it has ever seen before. We’ve actually exceeded pre-pandemic levels of imports a while ago. Import infrastructure isn’t big enough to handle it. If it was there wouldn’t be enough truckers to handle it. We had a shortage of 50,000 truckers before the pandemic, now we’re short 100,000. Some of these guys are making up to $100,000 a year, not bad for a high school level education. Expect it to get worse before it gets better, but it will get better eventually. That is why Amazon is having trouble, because supply chain problems may bring a weak Christmas, which is the most profitable time of year for them. If we get any big selloff at Amazon for this reason, you want to buy that bottom because it’ll double again in 3 years.
    Q: Walt Disney (DIS) has pretty much sideways the whole year around $70, is this going down or should I buy?
    A: I would look to buy but I would buy an in-the-money LEAPS, like a $150-$170 one year out. Disney’s been hit with a lot of slowdowns lately, slowdowns with park reopening, movie releases, new streaming customers. But these are all temporary slowdowns and will pick up again next year. Disney is the classic reopening play, so you will get another bite at the apple with a second reopening. Maybe “bite of the mouse” is a better metaphor.
    Q: Global growth is down because of China (FXI) with their PMI under 50; do you think they will drag down the entire global economy in 2022?
    A: No, if we recover, their largest customer, they will recover too. Remember their pandemic cases are only a tiny fraction of what ours were, some 4,000 or so, and their economy is still export-driven. You can't have major port congestion in Los Angeles and a weak economy in China, those are just two ends of one chain. I would look for a recovery in China next year. As for the stocks, I don’t know because that’s an entirely political issue; Baidu (BIDU), (JD), and Alibaba (BABA) are still getting beaten like a redheaded stepchild. We don’t know when that’s going to end; it’s an unknown. So, stand aside on Chinese plays, especially when the stuff at home is so much better with all these financials and tech stocks to invest in.
    Q: What do you think about meme stocks?
    A: I think you should avoid them like the plague. When there are so many good quality stocks with long term uptrends, why bother dumpster diving? You’re better off buying a lottery ticket.
    Q: Which US bank should I invest in?
    A: If you want the gold standard, you buy JP Morgan (JPM) which just announced blowout earnings. If you want a broker, go for Morgan Stanley (MS), which also just announced blowout earnings last week. And I want you to make my monthly pension payment secure, as it comes from Morgan Stanley. Keep those checks coming!
    Q: Are we headed to $150 oil (USO)?
    A: No, what we’re seeing here is a short-term spike in prices due to supply chain problems, OPEC discipline, a booming economy, and Russia trying to squeeze Europe on energy supplies. I don’t see it continuing much per year as the stocks could be popping out, so avoid oil and energy plays. The solar plays, like (TAN), (FSLR), and (SPWR) on the other hand, all look like they have miles to go.
    Q: You said in your Webinar that you can still get a 50% Return on the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) LEAPS. Can you give me the specifics?
    A: If you went a year out on Tuesday when I recorded this webinar, you could buy the (TLT) October 2022 $150-$150 vertical bear put spread for $3.40 for a maximum profit on expiration at $5.00 of $47%. That’s where you buy the $155 put and sell short the $150 put against it. Since then, bonds have fallen by $3.00, and it is now trading at $3.60 giving you a 39% return. Try to establish this position on the next (TLT) rally.
    Q: What is your yearend target for Bitcoin?
    A: Now that we have broken the old high at $66,000, we should be able to make it to $100,000 by January. The SEC approving that new ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) ETF unlocks trillions of dollars which can now go into Bitcoin, those regulated by the Investment Company Act of 1940. Crypto is now the fastest-growing segment of the financial markets. It’s inflation that driving this, and the Fed is throwing fuel on the fire by taking no action in the face of a red hot 5.4% Consumer Price Index. Even if the Fed does taper, the action will be more than offset by the massive $8 trillion increase in corporate profits. Companies are not only buying their own stocks, they are also using these profits to buy Bitcoin. I see this as a Bitcoin node myself. Be sure to dollar cost average your position by putting in a little bit of money every day because Bitcoin is wildly volatile, up 140% since August 1. By the way, it’s not too late to subscribe to the Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter, which we are taking down from the store on Monday for a major upgrade by clicking here. We are raising prices after that.
    To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on the paid service you are currently in (GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, TECH LETTER, or BITCOIN LETTER), then select WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.
    Good luck and stay healthy.

    John Thomas
    CEO & Publisher
    The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader








    Quote of the Day"The question is not whether Tesla will sell 80,000 or 90,000 cars this year, but whether they will sell 14 million or 15 million in 15 years. I believe they can do it," said Ron Baron of long-term value player, Baron Capital.





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  25. #1700  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    If you don't want for much.... money just a tool basically.
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