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Thread: Intersting thoughts

  1. #201  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruins4Life View Post
    GLD was trading around $167 today. How is he basing his call on GLD being $158.
    Clearly I'm missing something.
    This guy is B.S his number is always way off and was never correct with the current trading market, even if you go back for wk. I personally subscribed to his services and so far all his text alert is a loser. Beware ( lessons learned)
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  2. #202  
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    Quote Originally Posted by UT_VI View Post
    This guy is B.S his number is always way off and was never correct with the current trading market, even if you go back for wk. I personally subscribed to his services and so far all his text alert is a loser. Beware ( lessons learned)

    oh really ..you subscribe?
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  3. #203  
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    Yeah I see the problem with the alert...

    He has missed on this rally for sure,,I think a lot of pros have...
    I've done very well with his picks and do play some of his exotics. Calls and LEAPS mostly
    I'm guessing UT subscribes for some reason..

    I do my own picking mostly..I've been holding a number of stocks since 2009 .. got beat to shit earlier this year, should I have sold out at one point? Maybe
    I'm not one to give up long term capital gain status easily and now I'm mostly back percentage wise after a shit few months.
    I haven't done that well with the rebound..honestly the V surprised me. I love 2 of the longish holds I've recently bought and the short position I took as insurance will pay eventually.
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  4. #204  
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    I did buy some GLD yesterday and paid $167
    I also re bought CRWD
    Also gave in and bought ZM lol.

    Was very tempted to take more GLD. I may buy some physical bars but having trouble pulling the trigger lol.
    How did a generation raised on South Park and Family Guy become sooooo sensitive?
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  5. #205  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruins4Life View Post
    I did buy some GLD yesterday and paid $167
    I also re bought CRWD
    Also gave in and bought ZM lol.

    Was very tempted to take more GLD. I may buy some physical bars but having trouble pulling the trigger lol.

    I love JD very long too.
    CRWD..I bought a bit more on the little dip.Long hold.
    Zm to much too fast for me but what a ride so far.

    good luck bruins
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  6. #206  
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    Where do you think the bottom is on SQQQ? Been a steady decline as people continue to sell off.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmrcharity View Post
    Where do you think the bottom is on SQQQ? Been a steady decline as people continue to sell off.
    It's basically an Dow adverage/S&P play so anytime now if you believe the market will decline.
    I think the market has almost gassed it's self out... experts have differing opinions but watching people sheltering in gold and even T bills makes you think...
    Who knows..after the long weekend with Biden talking about taxes, C19 spiking and earnings coming out.... July is looking promising for SQQQ

    Just be careful with this one it's leveraged X3 as I'm sure you know... big gains if the market declines big losses if the market continues.
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  8. #208  
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    I have thought the market has gassed itself out for a while now but it just hasn't happened. When it does start to decline it should be very sharp.
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  9. #209  
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    Since Bozzie mentioned it I have been considering a position in SQQQ but thought it best to wait til Monday.
    I could be wrong but I think historically that SPY rises 10% just before the holiday.
    How did a generation raised on South Park and Family Guy become sooooo sensitive?
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  10. #210  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozzie View Post
    oh really ..you subscribe?
    Yes I did. I did it because I have no experience and have no clue what to do. But lessons learned
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  11. #211  
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    Curious on your guys take on these 2. Pure Storage ( PSTG) AND Workiva (WK)
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  12. #212  
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    [QUOTE=UT_VI;13175773]Yes I did. I did it because I have no experience and have no clue what to do. But lessons learned[/QUOTE

    Some of his vehicles are not for novice investors...Just hold decent companies long.. don't get too fancy.

    Good luck UT
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  13. #213  
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    Fiat Lux

    Featured Trade:
    (THE DEATH OF THE FINANCIAL ADVISOR)


    The Death of the Financial Advisor

    About one-third of my readers are professional financial advisors who earn their crust of bread telling clients how to invest their retirement assets for a fixed fee.

    They used to earn a share of the brokerage fees they generated. After stock commissions went to near zero, they started charging a flat 1.25% a year on the assets they oversaw.

    So, it is with some sadness that I have watched this troubled industry enter a long-term secular decline which seems to be worsening by the day.

    Some miscreants steered clients into securities solely based on the commissions they earned, which could reach 8% or more, whether it made any investment sense or not. Some of the instruments they recommended were nothing more than blatant rip-offs.

    Knowing hundreds of financial advisors personally, I can tell you that virtually, all are hardworking professionals who go the extra mile to safeguard customer assets while earning incremental positive returns.

    That is no easy task given the exponential speed with which the global economy is evolving. Yesterday’s “window and orphans” safe bets can transform overnight into today’s reckless adventure.

    Look no further than coal, energy, and the auto industry. Once a mainstay of conservative portfolios, all of these sectors have or came close to filing for bankruptcy.

    Even my own local power utility, Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PGE), filed for chapter 11 in 2001 because they couldn’t game the electric power markets as well as Enron.

    Some advisors even go the extent of scouring the Internet for a trade mentoring service that can ease their burden, like the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, to get their clients that extra edge.

    Traditional financial managers have been under siege for decades.

    Commissions have been cut, expenses increased, and mysterious “fees” have started showing up on customer statements.

    Those who work for big firms, like UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Merrill Lynch, and Charles Schwab, have seen health insurance coverage cut back and deductibles raised.

    The safety of custody with big firms has always been a myth. Remember, all of these guys would have gone under during the 2008-09 financial crash if they hadn’t been bailed out by the government. It will happen again.

    The quality of the research has taken a nosedive, with sectors, like small caps, no longer covered.

    What remains offers nothing but waffle and indecision. Many analysts are afraid to commit to a real recommendation for fear of getting sued, or worse, scaring away lucrative investment banking business.

    And have you noticed that after Dodd-Frank, two-thirds of a brokerage report is made up of disclosures?

    Many advisors have, in fact, evolved over the decades from money managers to asset gatherers and relationship managers.

    Their job is now to steer investors into “safe” funds managed by third parties that have to carry all of the liability for bad decisions (buying energy plays in 2014?).

    The firms have effectively become toll-takers, charging a commission for anything that moves.

    They have become so risk-averse that they have banned participation in anything exotic, like options, option spreads, (VIX) trading, any 2X leveraged ETFs, or inverse ETFs of any kind. When dealing in esoterica is permitted, the commissions are doubled.

    Even my own newsletter has to get compliance review before it is distributed to clients, often provided by third parties to smaller firms.

    “Every year, they try to chip away at something”, one beleaguered advisor confided to me with despair.

    Big brokers often hype their own services with expensive advertising campaigns that unrealistically elevate client expectations.

    Modern media doesn’t help either.

    I can’t tell you how many times I have had to convince advisors not to dump all their stocks at a market bottom because of something they heard on TV, saw on the Internet, or read in a competing newsletter warning that financial Armageddon was imminent.

    Customers are force-fed the same misinformation. One of my main jobs is to provide advisors with the fodder they need to refute the many “end of the world” scenarios that seem to be in continuous circulation.

    In fact, a sudden wave of such calls has proven to be a great “bottoming” indicator for me.

    Personally, I don’t expect to see another major financial crisis until 2032 at the earliest, and by then, I’ll probably be dead.

    Because of all of the above, about half of my financial advisor readers have confided in me a desire to go independent in the near future, if they are not already.

    Sure, they won’t be ducking all these bullets. But at least they will have an independent business they can either sell at a future date or pass on to a succeeding generation.

    Overheads are far easier to control when you own your own business, and the tax advantages can be substantial.

    A secular trend away from non-discretionary to discretionary account management is a decisive move in this direction.

    There seems to be a great separating of the wheat from the chaff going on in the financial advisory industry.

    Those who can stay ahead of the curve, both with the markets and their own business models, are soaking up all the assets. Those that can’t are unable to hold on to enough money to keep their businesses going concerns.

    Let’s face it, in the modern age, every industry is being put through a meat grinder. Thanks to hyper-accelerating technology, business models are changing by the day.

    Just be happy you’re not a doctor trying to figure out Obamacare.

    Those individuals who can reinvent themselves quickly will succeed. Those that won’t will quickly be confined to the dustbin of history.



    It’ Not as Easy as It Looks


    Quote of the Day

    “There’s a 70% chance the whole thing will fail,” said Jeff Bezos when pitching his parents for a $100,000 investment in his startup, Amazon (AMZN) in 1994.





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  14. #214  
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    I call BS on these employment numbers...
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    Sold a bit of CRWD and watching LLNW..Looking to buy in the next few days..Up 8% today.
    LLNW's connection to amazon..Poor mans Fastly
    Great take over potential and I'd say amazon could be interested given the talk about amazon streaming live TV.
    Decent Covid Play
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  16. #216  
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    30% of LLNW revenue is derived by Amazons Prime services.
    Scary..if they aquirrer another provider... Amazon will eventually buy someone if/when they move forward with live TV programing.
    Amazon has no comment on live TV plans but as this story points out it looks as if they are gearing up to move that way.

    https://www.protocol.com/amazon-prime-live-tv
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  17. #217  
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    Just this morning I read an article re LLNW on Stocktwits.

    CRWD is a hold for me. Any reason you sold some?
    How did a generation raised on South Park and Family Guy become sooooo sensitive?
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  18. #218  
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    TECH ALERT - BUY (TWTR) July 2020 $26-$29 CALL spread at $2.66, Opening Trade, 7-2-2020, exp: 7-17-2020, wgt:10% = 37 contracts
    Just got it at 12:55 July 2
    and trading price is at 30.96 his number is no where near to be find at the time text alert was received.
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  19. #219  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruins4Life View Post
    Just this morning I read an article re LLNW on Stocktwits.

    CRWD is a hold for me. Any reason you sold some?

    Just spreading my cloud holdings out a bit.
    I still have a good amount of CRWD...still love it long.
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  20. #220  
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    Quote Originally Posted by UT_VI View Post
    TECH ALERT - BUY (TWTR) July 2020 $26-$29 CALL spread at $2.66, Opening Trade, 7-2-2020, exp: 7-17-2020, wgt:10% = 37 contracts
    Just got it at 12:55 July 2
    and trading price is at 30.96 his number is no where near to be find at the time text alert was received.


    sounds like a bull call spread.....I haven't seen the alert so I'm not sure.
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  21. #221  
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    [QUOTE=UT_VI;13176057]TECH ALERT - BUY (TWTR) July 2020 $26-$29 CALL spread at $2.66, Opening Trade, 7-2-2020, exp: 7-17-2020, wgt:10% = 37 contracts
    Just got it at 12:55 July 2
    and trading price is at 30.96 his number is no where near to be find at the time text alert was received.[/QUOTE

    I'd love to help you out with these but given the fact you admitted you're learning about the stock market ...my advise would be just play the market straight till you know more.

    Not being a dick but I don't want anyones loses on my hands.

    Don't follow me...I haven't been that good lately

    sorry man
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  22. #222  
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    [QUOTE=Bozzie;13175882]
    Quote Originally Posted by UT_VI View Post
    Yes I did. I did it because I have no experience and have no clue what to do. But lessons learned[/QUOTE

    Some of his vehicles are not for novice investors...Just hold decent companies long.. don't get too fancy.
    thank you Bozzie

    Good luck UT
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  23. #223  
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    [QUOTE=Bozzie;13176087]
    Quote Originally Posted by UT_VI View Post
    TECH ALERT - BUY (TWTR) July 2020 $26-$29 CALL spread at $2.66, Opening Trade, 7-2-2020, exp: 7-17-2020, wgt:10% = 37 contracts
    Just got it at 12:55 July 2
    and trading price is at 30.96 his number is no where near to be find at the time text alert was received.[/QUOTE
    thank you man your words is much appreciated

    I'd love to help you out with these but given the fact you admitted you're learning about the stock market ...my advise would be just play the market straight till you know more.

    Not being a dick but I don't want anyones loses on my hands.

    Don't follow me...I haven't been that good lately

    sorry man
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  24. #224  
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    [QUOTE=Bozzie;13176087]
    Quote Originally Posted by UT_VI View Post
    TECH ALERT - BUY (TWTR) July 2020 $26-$29 CALL spread at $2.66, Opening Trade, 7-2-2020, exp: 7-17-2020, wgt:10% = 37 contracts
    Just got it at 12:55 July 2
    and trading price is at 30.96 his number is no where near to be find at the time text alert was received.[/QUOTE
    Thank you Bozzie your words is much appreciated
    I'd love to help you out with these but given the fact you admitted you're learning about the stock market ...my advise would be just play the market straight till you know more.

    Not being a dick but I don't want anyones loses on my hands.

    Don't follow me...I haven't been that good lately

    sorry man
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  25. #225  
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    Global Market Comments
    July 6, 2020
    Fiat Lux

    Featured Trade:
    (MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or MEET THE NEW MARKET)
    (SPY), (TLT), (TSLA), (GLD)



    The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Meet the New Market

    Meet the new market.Remember “RISK ON, RISK OFF”?

    That’s long gone, tossed in the dustbin of history.

    We now have a stock market that runs on “COVID ON, COVID OFF”.

    When the rate of increase in the number of new US Covid-19 cases soars, stocks dive. When they fade, stocks rocket. It doesn’t get any more complicated than that.

    In fact, the market is becoming immune to induced Covid shocks. In February and March, it was a huge black swan. Now, it is put in front of our face every day, from the moment we put on our masks in the morning to the when we vigorously wash our hands on our return.

    Which leads us to the question, “What are we buying here with the Dow Average at 26,000 and the S&P 500 price earnings multiple at a nosebleed 26X?” The lead sector of technology is seeing a four times price to sales multiple, the highest since the Dotcom Bubble top.

    You certainly aren’t paying for 2020 earnings, which have been completely written off by investors long ago. (SPY) earnings could drop from $162 a share in 2019 to $125 this year…. or $85, depending on how long the Great Depression extends.

    You are not paying for 2021 or 2022 earnings either because stocks are still expensive according to traditional benchmarks. Now, you have to go out to 2023 before we recover that historic $162 a share level. And that is the bull case. The bears don’t see earnings returning to peak levels until 2025, or even 2030 before we recover the 2019 earnings power.

    Good thing I am not a habitual bear. I believe the America that comes out the other side of the pandemic will be immensely more powerful and profitable than the one going in. Fat is being trimmed at an incredible pace. New product lines and services are being invented out of whole cloth. What is going on in biotech is out of science fiction. And you want to buy a piece of this right now.

    All of this sets up my coming American “Golden Age” scenario and another Roaring Twenties. Investors are not paying for the last America, but the next one, and that one is much more valuable. Stocks in the old America are expensive. Stocks in the new America are cheap.

    I can see how this plays out with all the clarity of a sage. The Dow Average will grind up to just short of the all-time high. Then, a true vaccine will be announced and stocks will rise by 5% a day until the Index doubles to $50,000.

    If the Oxford vaccine succeeds with its stage three trials in August, this could be only weeks away. Hence, the superheated market action right now.

    It isn’t going to be all Champaign and roses. We are on the verge of losing the bottom quarter of the US population, the part that doesn’t own stocks, rents their homes, and once had low-waged jobs in restaurants, retailers, hotels, local government, and airlines. As many as ten million could get evicted from homes. The U-6 unemployment rate will stay permanently in double digits.

    Then the next government will have to roll out 1930s style Roosevelt programs that put millions to work, like the Civilian Conservation Corps, which built much of the public infrastructure that we enjoy today.


    June Nonfarm Payrolls blew it away, up 4.8 million, taking the unemployment rate to a still half-century high of 11.1%. A gain of only 2 million was expected. The problem is that the states that powered the greatest gains are now showing the biggest increases in new infections. Leisure & Hospitality gained 2.1 million, Retail 739,000, Manufacturing356,000, Construction 158,000. It’s probably the most meaningless number ever reported.

    Bonds were the best performing asset class in June, up 9%, with a huge flight to safety bid chasing every category of fixed income. It’s setting up one of the best short-selling opportunities of the century….again. The bond market is about to get crushed by historic over-issuance of paper by the US government.

    The IMF predicts a 4.9% global GDP loss in 2020, a 1.9% drop in only two months. They are expecting a 5.4% bounce back in 2021. It lines up with my own forecast that things will get much worse before they get better.

    Pending Home Sales up a staggering 44.3% in May, far and away the largest pop in history on a signed contract basis. They’re still down 5% YOY. Most builders will take that as a win. The west saw the biggest gains, up 56%. It bolsters my argument that housing will be immune to the current Great Depression, thanks to a surging Millennial demographic tailwind.

    Fed Governor Powell warns of unprecedented uncertainty in his comments to be delivered to the House today. Translation: interest rates will stay lower for longer. Oh, and we need more fiscal stimulus too.

    Tesla announced blockbuster Q2 sales. Of course, the news that Tesla delivered an amazing 90,650 vehicles in Q2, 20,000 greater than the most optimistic expectations, was the trigger. This is at the height of the pandemic with the factory closed for two months. I sent out a trade alert on the stock two days ago with a $1,200 target and it is already up 20%. The bottles of single malt Scottish whiskey have already started to arrive (hint, hint).

    Tesla now has a market capitalization of an eye-popping $225 billion. Tesla has had everything thrown at it that should have wiped it out, like a pandemic, Great Depression, and negative oil prices. Yet, it has gone from strength to strength, the shares tripling off the March lows. Next stop $2,500.

    The PPP is running out, and companies are not allowed to double-dip, unless congress changes the law and replenishes the funds. Some 47% of Americans work for companies with less than 500 employees, so the unemployment rate could surge to over 52 million. Me thinks the market won’t like this. Grounds for another 10% correction? My downside target is $270 in the (SPY).

    The ISM Manufacturing Index shocked to the upside in June, coming in at 52.6 from 31.8, the best report in a year. It shows there was some kind of reopening going on last month. Can we repeat in July?

    Gun Sales are soaring, according to FBI background check statistics for June. New owners are seeking protection in our current dystopian world on riots and pandemic. Many will end up shooting themselves or loved ones in accidents. The greatest of all ironies here is that Remington is now owned by the Navajo Indian tribe, who are almost wiped out by Remington’s in the 19th century, which they just obtained ownership of in a bankruptcy settlement.

    When we come out the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade.

    My Global Trading Dispatch enjoyed the best week in its 13-year history, up an astounding +10.67%, even though it was only a holiday-shortened four-day week. We have taken in an eye popping +2.85% just in the first two days of July.

    June closed at an awesome 10.38%. It was a week when everything worked in the extreme. My eleven-year performance rocketed to a new all-time high of 379.46%. Double weightings in Tesla, gold, and biotech were a big help.

    That takes my 2020 YTD return up to an industry-beating +23.25%. This compares to a loss for the Dow Average of -9.4%, up from -37% on March 23. My trailing one-year return popped back up to 63.85%, THE HIGHEST IN THE 13 YEAR HISTORY of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. My eleven-year average annualized profit recovered to a record +35.85%.

    The only numbers that count for the market are the number of US Coronavirus cases and deaths, which you can find here. It’s jobs week and we should see an onslaught of truly awful numbers.

    On Monday, July 6 at 10:00 AM EST, the June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is released.

    On Tuesday, July 7 at 8:00 AM EST, the US Vehicle Sales for June are announced.
    On Wednesday, July 8 at 10:30 AM EST, the EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks are out.
    On Thursday, June 9 at 8:30 AM EST, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced.
    On Friday, June 10 at 8:30 AM EST, the US Producer Price Index is released. The Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 2:00 PM EST.

    As for me, I’ll be hitting the beach at Incline Village, Nevada, managing the appropriate social distance. The Coronavirus has a much short life span in the supper dry High Sierra air so I should be OK. And as far as I know, the virus can’t swim….yet.

    Stay healthy.

    John Thomas
    CEO & Publisher
    The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader












    Quote of the Day

    “If you’re not bullish stocks here for the longer run, you are short the massive firepower of the US government and every scientist and biotech company who’s working on a vaccine,” said John Spallanzani of the Miller Value Funds.




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