This Corona Virus Study kinda blows my mind

My brother lives in England and is pretty sure he and his wife had it a couple weeks ago.

Enfuego said:

An Oxford epidemiologist argues via a study that half of all Britons may have already been infected by the coronavirus. Says her model shows that less than 1 in a thousand of those with disease require hospitalization.

She says virus has likely been circulating in England for two months. Needs blood testing to check for antibodies in public. Says she is shocked that so many believed the paper projecting millions of deaths in UK & United States.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

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I'm sure you can dig up even more discredited, crackpot studies if you look hard enough. Blame it on Mexicans or aliens if you can

Did they have a fever?

Everyone w/ a mild cough thinks they have it.

PatsFan1283 said:

Did they have a fever?

Everyone w/ a mild cough thinks they have it.

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That's the thing Pats. I'm sure thousands will have it and just go about their business and be fine in a few days so we'll never know.

there are several people I've met that already believe they've had it and recovered, but there's no testing available to prove that just yet

HarryCaray said:

My brother lives in England and is pretty sure he and his wife had it a couple weeks ago.

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couple weeks ago? Why wouldn’t you think that was corona? If you said a couple months ago that’s different

This must be more media mumbo jumbo here bahahahhahahaha. The MEDIA planted CORONA!!!! That’s who did it. That damn CNN son of a bitch don lemon. It’s their fault!!!!! :Carcajada:



Ive heard a few dumbasses say this has been around for months. Since December in the states. Simple correct answer.....nah. Lot of you still don’t know the facts it’s comical at this point.

Cocksucker posts a link from the financial times lmfao what do you expect their going to say? The economy is great right now. This virus is serious. We need to keep stuff closed.

You can’t see what’s in front of you

“Blows my mind.” Pfffffshbabahahhahahahahahahahahhaha

Lol, just a troll. Nobody has ever suggested the media planted this virus situation haha.

Mobdeeper7239 said:

Cocksucker posts a link from the financial times lmfao what do you expect their going to say? The economy is great right now. This virus is serious. We need to keep stuff closed.

You can’t see what’s in front of you

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Be fucking honest guy, you’ve never heard of the Financial Times let alone read it. It’s a bit above your pay grade.

The numbers still don’t add up

sorry

Enfuego said:

An Oxford epidemiologist argues via a study that half of all Britons may have already been infected by the coronavirus. Says her model shows that less than 1 in a thousand of those with disease require hospitalization.

She says virus has likely been circulating in England for two months. Needs blood testing to check for antibodies in public. Says she is shocked that so many believed the paper projecting millions of deaths in UK & United States.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

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All i could read at that link was the title. OTOH:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-may-have-already-infected-half-of-uk-study-says/

"The rapidly spreading coronavirus may have already infected half the UK population — but that is encouraging news, according to a new study by the University of Oxford.The modeling by researchers at Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates the COVID-19 virus reached the UK by mid-January at the latest, spreading undetected for more than a month before the first official case was reported in late February, the Financial Times reports.

But even though this suggests the spread is far worse than scientists previously estimated, it also implies that only one in a thousand people infected with COVID-19 requires hospitalization.

The researchers say this shows that herd immunity — the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough of the population builds up resistance through becoming infected — can help fight the highly-contagious disease.

This view is in contrast to the Imperial College London modeling used by the UK government to develop policies to halt the crisis, including social distancing.
“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study, told the Financial Times.

If the Oxford model is confirmed by testing, Professor Gupta believes this means current restrictions could be removed much sooner than the government has indicated, the Financial Times reports.

The group is now working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing to figure out what stage the epidemic is in and to assess protective immunity, according to the outlet.

In the UK, 422 people have died from the illness while 135 have recovered. There have been 8,077 confirmed cases, data from Johns Hopkins University shows.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-may-have-already-infected-half-of-uk-study-says/

"Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand"

"Summary

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is themost serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present theresults of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countriesin recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number ofpublic health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducingcontact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presentedhere, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britainspecifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likelyto be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact ontransmission.

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarilystopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk ofsevere disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducingcase numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has majorchallenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of theelderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 anddeaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds ofthousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed manytimes over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.


We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of socialdistancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their familymembers. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should berecognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased


absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until avaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmissionwill quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing –triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily inrelative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbersrebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible inthe short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social andeconomic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

we're not even at H1N1 level of deaths yet in this country...Barak and Biden weren't doing anything at this point yet.. kinda confusing

Mobdeeper7239 said:

“Blows my mind.” Pfffffshbabahahhahahahahahahahahhaha

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if no one is around...does it make a sound???

RED EYE said:

we're not even at H1N1 level of deaths yet in this country...Barak and Biden weren't doing anything at this point yet.. kinda confusing

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do you remember it that way?

did you research that?

or did you just regurgitate some talking heads, like a no brain sheep.

a little background. H1N1 was a form of flu, so not a novel virus. Thus humans did have some basic inherent genetic immunity as immune systems would recognize the tweak of the flu strain. But it was also known that a vaccine would be able to be made in relatively short term. A novel coronavirus will infect a human immune system and they have absolutely zero natual affinity to fight it off and have to re learn their entire immune response. That is why things are shutting down EVERYWHERE in the world for this. Scientists have been shitting their pants behind closed doors to world leaders as they don't have answers yet, and this is a more contagious and insidiously mutating virus that has a stealth incubation component. But if you want to continue to compare the apples and oranges, just using raw data that is done vs very quickly accumulating data against the advice of experts that is a decision that doesn't just affect you. but in any event here is how the H1N1 went down. It was a bit different in big and nuanced ways. a big one being, that since it was a very bad flu strain, we did know that the sun, heat and humidity would help mitigate the affects, summer was soon approaching.

April 15 First H1N1 Case in the United States. It began in the United States so there was no months of previous warning from foreign countries.

April 28 the First H1N1 death

April 29- Public health Emergency declared and Obama requests 1.5 Trillion dollars from Congress, Says some schools should close and people to plan for contingencies for staying home

April 29 WHO raises Pandemic alert to level 5

May 5 the first US citizen dies of H1N1

July 11 The CDC declares H1N1 a pandemic


July 24- The CDC says there are 2738 confirmed cases of H1N1

The summer hit and H1N1 "washed through" kids were out of school and not spreading as fast. There were on a few thousand actual cases and there was no exponential growth.

Fall comes and kids start spreading again a quick ramp up after September things get bad in October.

October 5th- first H1N1 vaccine is administered

not everyone is getting the H1N1 vaccine, because hey, its just the flu vaccine of the year and not everyone gets that.

October schools start to close and A surge(like but lesser than what we see in NY now) finally hits some hospitals and is predicted for other hospitals.

In response Obama declares a national emergency to make it easier for Medical facilities to handle the surge by allowing a waiver of some medicare red tape as well as other federal health insurance programs


August 10 2010 WHO declares end of the H1N! pandemic.

so there is 17 months of that pandemic. If people want to compare apples and oranges for purely political purpses its gonna make it doubly sad when CV19, which is a far scarier pathogen, kills much more than 12,000+ over the next 17 months