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Thread: Forecasting COVID - Confirmed Cases

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  1. #1 Forecasting COVID - Confirmed Cases 
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    The ancillary data for Hospitalizations, Recoveries and Deaths will all flow from this leading indicator

    DATE CASES %Increase from previous day

    3/15 3505 24%
    3/16 4466 27%
    3/17 6135 37%
    3/18 8760 43%

    3/19 13229 51%
    3/20 18763 42%
    3/21 25740 37%
    3/22 34276 33%

    3/23 42663 24%
    3/24 52976 24%
    3/25 66273 23%


    *IF* 25% or more holds for coming 10 days

    3/26 81,591
    3/27 101,989
    3/28 127,486
    3/29 159,358
    3/30 199,198

    3/31 248,997
    4/1 311,246
    4/2 389,058
    4/3 486,322
    4/4 607,933

    As noted in a separate thread, while these numbers may well *exist* on Apr 4 given the variable of 25% daily, we likely will NOT see them posted that soon because quite simply it appears at least 7million-8million tests would have to be performed in same 10 days and at this time the USA does not have that many available

    How much of the Senate 4.5T bailout bill is being allotted for manufacture and expedited delivery of needed COVID tests to health care providers nationwide?
    Don Trump is another Nixon.....if Nixon had 4th grade literacy, weighed 381 lbs, snorted amphetamines like Pez, consumed only pureed food & exhibited expanding symptoms of FTD
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  2. #2  
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    Fun Fact....If the median daily pct increase over next 10 days were 33% instead of 25% we would be at 1.15m confirmed cases
    Don Trump is another Nixon.....if Nixon had 4th grade literacy, weighed 381 lbs, snorted amphetamines like Pez, consumed only pureed food & exhibited expanding symptoms of FTD
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sgt Lanquel View Post
    Fun Fact....If the median daily pct increase over next 10 days were 33% instead of 25% we would be at 1.15m confirmed cases
    That would be about 1/3 of 1% of our population - and of the that 1/3 of 1% of our population the vast majority would not know they had the virus or might have a mild cough or were a little sleepy
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  4. #4  
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  5. #5  
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    NY spreading it all over the place. Mardi Gras in LA.
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  6. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sgt Lanquel View Post
    Fun Fact....If the median daily pct increase over next 10 days were 33% instead of 25% we would be at 1.15m confirmed cases
    How many people get the flu each year Barman?
    Welchers are the worst.
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  7. #7  
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    'How much of the Senate 4.5T bailout bill is being allotted for manufacture and expedited delivery of needed COVID tests to health care providers nationwide?'


    dunno.....but here's what Maya MacGuineas has to say.......btw, she's lovely, you'd like her


    http://www.crfb.org/press-releases/d...virus-response

    Donít Play Politics with the Coronavirus Response


    This is a national emergency, and it is exactly the kind of time when we should borrow money as necessary to help deal with this emergency. While itís unfortunate we are entering this crisis already over-indebted and running trillion-dollar deficits, this is not the moment to let our large deficits stand in the way of responding quickly and aggressively.
    However, this is not an invitation for legislators to add unrelated measures or pet projects. Preventing a health and economic calamity will require an unprecedented level of spending, but each dollar must still be spent wisely. The emphasis of legislation should be to strengthen public health measures, provide support for families and businesses most impacted by the disruptions, and limit damage to the overall macroeconomy. Policies must be legitimately temporary, enacted in a timely manner, and as targeted as possible without compromising the first two criteria.
    Proposals to create new above-the-line deductions unrelated to the coronavirus, provide blanket loan forgiveness for past student debt, or weaken the base broadening measures enacted as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act have no place in this legislation. If these proposals are worth enacting, they should be passed through the normal legislative process and with adequate pay-fors. They should not come out of the precious dollars needed to address the current health and economic crisis. Unrelated measures that are tucked into the current bill will compromise its credibility and make it more difficult to pass future response measures as they prove necessary. This is a moment to put special interest politics aside and focus only on the emergency at hand.
    This country needs the highest level of leadership right now that puts country over party and citizens over special interests. We are depending on our leaders to come together to govern responsibly through these trying times. To do so, Congress must kick the habit of inserting political party favors into must-pass emergency legislation, and focus only on the current emergency. There are many important and sensible measures in this bill and they should be adopted as quickly as possible.


    Pinarello (Paris) 2012 , dura-ace c50, shimano ultegra Di2
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  8. #8  
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  9. #9  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sgt Lanquel View Post
    Fun Fact....If the median daily pct increase over next 10 days were 33% instead of 25% we would be at 1.15m confirmed cases
    We'll never see 33% in a single day again much less sustain it over 10 days.
    Stop fear mongering.
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  10. #10  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego View Post
    How many people get the flu each year Barman?
    Listen dipshit. You know this is different than the flu. Right?
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  11. #11  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigbet1234 View Post
    Listen dipshit. You know this is different than the flu. Right?
    No, he doesn't and he never will get it along with the others that keep repeating the same mantra.
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  12. #12  
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    I don't even know where to begin, because if you can't think of this yourself you probably won't comprehend what I'm saying anyhow.

    Citing "confirmed" cases as evidence the virus is spreading exponentially or faster than expected is simply and totally inaccurate. At this point, we don't have the FACTS to make any such call.

    The reason these numbers are increasing like they are is because the number of people being TESTED is increasing exponentially.

    Let me give a simple example for the sake of conversation

    10 people have coronavirus (cv)

    1 person has been tested, so we have 1 confirmed case.

    Then a second person gets tested, so we have two confirmed cases. Does that mean the spread of the virus grew by 100%? That's supposed to be a rhetorical question, but I think I better answer it anyway. NO FUCKING WAY

    This is what's called FAKE FUCKING NEWS

    The numbers are further skewed by the fact that most localities only test people with significant symptoms, increasing the likelihood of positive testing. My niece returned home from Florence Italy where she was studying for 1 semester. She's been in the states 3 or so weeks. Her roommate tested positive, but since my niece shows no symptoms they refuse to test her.

    So now throw in the fact that many people are asymptomatic and are not being tested, and baddafuckingbing you realize we have absolutely no idea how many people have CV, never
    mind how fast it's spreading.

    To suggest something like it increased by 33% in one day is CNN stupid, maybe worse. It may be Nancy Pelosi stupid

    THINK, it helps a lot
    Living & loving life, despite the bumps. Always stay humble and kind.
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  13. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigbet1234 View Post
    Listen dipshit. You know this is different than the flu. Right?
    Orange leader plants the seed in their empty heads that the Coronavirus is no worse than the flu.

    Then Fox News waters and cultivates it that it's no worse than the flu.

    The weak minded morons come to believe that it's no worse than the flu and defends it even when proven wrong.

    Brainwashing 101.
    A press that is free to investigate and criticize the government is absolutely essential in a nation that practices self-government -- Thomas Jefferson
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  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by raiders72 View Post
    NY spreading it all over the place. Mardi Gras in LA.
    yep, John Rocker was right about Newyork.
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  15. #15  
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    lots of jews getting it, and men get it 60-40 over women. maybe jewish blood type is O like the Armenians. Weinstein has it, The gay dude Andy Cohen has it. Brentwood, New Rochelle, nyc.
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  16. #16  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sal santorre View Post
    No, he doesn't and he never will get it along with the others that keep repeating the same mantra.
    Sal, you need to stop hopping on other people's comments. Come in and add something on your own and be your own man. It would be a productive discussion if you did that.
    Welchers are the worst.
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  17. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigbet1234 View Post
    Listen dipshit. You know this is different than the flu. Right?
    If you're going to insult me, we aren't talking about anything.
    Welchers are the worst.
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  18. #18  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mango View Post
    Orange leader plants the seed in their empty heads that the Coronavirus is no worse than the flu.

    Then Fox News waters and cultivates it that it's no worse than the flu.

    The weak minded morons come to believe that it's no worse than the flu and defends it even when proven wrong.

    Brainwashing 101.
    It's an analogy, an analogy about how it spreads, how many people have it and how many people die from it, AND NO HYSTERIA TO BE FOUND.

    You're right, there's no comparison, we need 50 million more inflictions and up to 50,000 more deaths to be as bad as the flu

    The only difference between this pandemic and all it's predecessors is that this one is new, so it's "different"

    Of course, we were told they were all "different" at some point in time
    Living & loving life, despite the bumps. Always stay humble and kind.
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  19. #19  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Railbird View Post
    yep, John Rocker was right about Newyork.
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  20. #20  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    Damn, almost forgot another major difference, "this one is Trump's fault"
    Living & loving life, despite the bumps. Always stay humble and kind.
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  21. #21  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    I don't even know where to begin, because if you can't think of this yourself you probably won't comprehend what I'm saying anyhow.

    Citing "confirmed" cases as evidence the virus is spreading exponentially or faster than expected is simply and totally inaccurate. At this point, we don't have the FACTS to make any such call.

    The reason these numbers are increasing like they are is because the number of people being TESTED is increasing exponentially.

    Let me give a simple example for the sake of conversation

    10 people have coronavirus (cv)

    1 person has been tested, so we have 1 confirmed case.

    Then a second person gets tested, so we have two confirmed cases. Does that mean the spread of the virus grew by 100%? That's supposed to be a rhetorical question, but I think I better answer it anyway. NO FUCKING WAY

    This is what's called FAKE FUCKING NEWS

    The numbers are further skewed by the fact that most localities only test people with significant symptoms, increasing the likelihood of positive testing. My niece returned home from Florence Italy where she was studying for 1 semester. She's been in the states 3 or so weeks. Her roommate tested positive, but since my niece shows no symptoms they refuse to test her.

    So now throw in the fact that many people are asymptomatic and are not being tested, and baddafuckingbing you realize we have absolutely no idea how many people have CV, never
    mind how fast it's spreading.

    To suggest something like it increased by 33% in one day is CNN stupid, maybe worse. It may be Nancy Pelosi stupid

    THINK, it helps a lot

    Spot on.
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    you might slice a hook!
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  22. #22  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    Damn, almost forgot another major difference, "this one is Trump's fault"

    Anybody who brings Trump in this is a damn fool. I wonder why liberal politicians like Schumer and Pelosi have went back and deleted the tweets slamming trump for closing borders into China in January.

    Sheep gonna sheep. Sky is falling so might as well scream at it while it's coming down. Water is wet. Gonna get my free gumberment check tho.
    Donít drink and drive...
    you might slice a hook!
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  23. #23  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Railbird View Post
    lots of jews getting it, and men get it 60-40 over women. maybe jewish blood type is O like the Armenians. Weinstein has it, The gay dude Andy Cohen has it. Brentwood, New Rochelle, nyc.
    there may or may not be some nationalities genetically more prone - like Italians (more) and Germans (less) - but explain how u think the virus knows if ur Roman Catholic, Hasidic Jew or Evangelical
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  24. #24  
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    pittsburgh is at 88 cases with 2nd death occurring yesterday when a 78YO Bulgarian woman, here visiting son and grandkid, contracted it from granddaughter and died. both her son and granddaughter recovered in 2 days but she did not. The first COVID death was someone "in their late 60's" but no mention of how they contracted the virus.
    If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear
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  25. #25  
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    Meanwhile, the most pertinent figure related to Fatalities would be CFR

    Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is deaths divided by closed cases (active cases may still result in death).

    The US CFR is 1080/ 2943—or 37%.
    Don Trump is another Nixon.....if Nixon had 4th grade literacy, weighed 381 lbs, snorted amphetamines like Pez, consumed only pureed food & exhibited expanding symptoms of FTD
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