Forecasting COVID - Confirmed Cases

SgtLanquel · Mar 25, 2020

The ancillary data for Hospitalizations, Recoveries and Deaths will all flow from this leading indicator

DATE CASES %Increase from previous day

3/15 3505 24%
3/16 4466 27%
3/17 6135 37%
3/18 8760 43%

3/19 13229 51%
3/20 18763 42%
3/21 25740 37%
3/22 34276 33%

3/23 42663 24%
3/24 52976 24%
3/25 66273 23%

*IF* 25% or more holds for coming 10 days

3/26 81,591
3/27 101,989
3/28 127,486
3/29 159,358
3/30 199,198

3/31 248,997
4/1 311,246
4/2 389,058
4/3 486,322
4/4 607,933

As noted in a separate thread, while these numbers may well *exist* on Apr 4 given the variable of 25% daily, we likely will NOT see them posted that soon because quite simply it appears at least 7million-8million tests would have to be performed in same 10 days and at this time the USA does not have that many available

How much of the Senate 4.5T bailout bill is being allotted for manufacture and expedited delivery of needed COVID tests to health care providers nationwide?

SgtLanquel · Mar 25, 2020

Fun Fact....If the median daily pct increase over next 10 days were 33% instead of 25% we would be at 1.15m confirmed cases

Seymour · Mar 25, 2020

Sgt Lanquel said:
Fun Fact....If the median daily pct increase over next 10 days were 33% instead of 25% we would be at 1.15m confirmed cases

That would be about 1/3 of 1% of our population - and of the that 1/3 of 1% of our population the vast majority would not know they had the virus or might have a mild cough or were a little sleepy

raiders72 · Mar 25, 2020

Top states

raiders72 · Mar 25, 2020

NY spreading it all over the place. Mardi Gras in LA.

Enfuego · Mar 25, 2020

Sgt Lanquel said:
Fun Fact....If the median daily pct increase over next 10 days were 33% instead of 25% we would be at 1.15m confirmed cases

How many people get the flu each year Barman?

Ricboff · Mar 25, 2020

'How much of the Senate 4.5T bailout bill is being allotted for manufacture and expedited delivery of needed COVID tests to health care providers nationwide?'

dunno.....but here's what Maya MacGuineas has to say.......btw, she's lovely, you'd like her

http://www.crfb.org/press-releases/dont-play-politics-coronavirus-response

Don’t Play Politics with the Coronavirus Response

This is a national emergency, and it is exactly the kind of time when we should borrow money as necessary to help deal with this emergency. While it’s unfortunate we are entering this crisis already over-indebted and running trillion-dollar deficits, this is not the moment to let our large deficits stand in the way of responding quickly and aggressively.
However, this is not an invitation for legislators to add unrelated measures or pet projects. Preventing a health and economic calamity will require an unprecedented level of spending, but each dollar must still be spent wisely. The emphasis of legislation should be to strengthen public health measures, provide support for families and businesses most impacted by the disruptions, and limit damage to the overall macroeconomy. Policies must be legitimately temporary, enacted in a timely manner, and as targeted as possible without compromising the first two criteria.
Proposals to create new above-the-line deductions unrelated to the coronavirus, provide blanket loan forgiveness for past student debt, or weaken the base broadening measures enacted as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act have no place in this legislation. If these proposals are worth enacting, they should be passed through the normal legislative process and with adequate pay-fors. They should not come out of the precious dollars needed to address the current health and economic crisis. Unrelated measures that are tucked into the current bill will compromise its credibility and make it more difficult to pass future response measures as they prove necessary. This is a moment to put special interest politics aside and focus only on the emergency at hand.
This country needs the highest level of leadership right now that puts country over party and citizens over special interests. We are depending on our leaders to come together to govern responsibly through these trying times. To do so, Congress must kick the habit of inserting political party favors into must-pass emergency legislation, and focus only on the current emergency. There are many important and sensible measures in this bill and they should be adopted as quickly as possible.

raiders72 · Mar 25, 2020

HarryCaray · Mar 25, 2020

Sgt Lanquel said:
Fun Fact....If the median daily pct increase over next 10 days were 33% instead of 25% we would be at 1.15m confirmed cases

We'll never see 33% in a single day again much less sustain it over 10 days.
Stop fear mongering.

bigbet1234 · Mar 25, 2020

Enfuego said:
How many people get the flu each year Barman?

Listen dipshit. You know this is different than the flu. Right?

Salsantorre · Mar 26, 2020

bigbet1234 said:
Listen dipshit. You know this is different than the flu. Right?

No, he doesn't and he never will get it along with the others that keep repeating the same mantra.

Willie99 · Mar 26, 2020

I don't even know where to begin, because if you can't think of this yourself you probably won't comprehend what I'm saying anyhow.

Citing "confirmed" cases as evidence the virus is spreading exponentially or faster than expected is simply and totally inaccurate. At this point, we don't have the FACTS to make any such call.

The reason these numbers are increasing like they are is because the number of people being TESTED is increasing exponentially.

Let me give a simple example for the sake of conversation

10 people have coronavirus (cv)

1 person has been tested, so we have 1 confirmed case.

Then a second person gets tested, so we have two confirmed cases. Does that mean the spread of the virus grew by 100%? That's supposed to be a rhetorical question, but I think I better answer it anyway. NO FUCKING WAY

This is what's called FAKE FUCKING NEWS

The numbers are further skewed by the fact that most localities only test people with significant symptoms, increasing the likelihood of positive testing. My niece returned home from Florence Italy where she was studying for 1 semester. She's been in the states 3 or so weeks. Her roommate tested positive, but since my niece shows no symptoms they refuse to test her.

So now throw in the fact that many people are asymptomatic and are not being tested, and baddafuckingbing you realize we have absolutely no idea how many people have CV, never
mind how fast it's spreading.

To suggest something like it increased by 33% in one day is CNN stupid, maybe worse. It may be Nancy Pelosi stupid

THINK, it helps a lot

mango · Mar 26, 2020

bigbet1234 said:
Listen dipshit. You know this is different than the flu. Right?

Orange leader plants the seed in their empty heads that the Coronavirus is no worse than the flu.

Then Fox News waters and cultivates it that it's no worse than the flu.

The weak minded morons come to believe that it's no worse than the flu and defends it even when proven wrong.

Brainwashing 101.

Railbird · Mar 26, 2020

raiders72 said:
NY spreading it all over the place. Mardi Gras in LA.

yep, John Rocker was right about Newyork.

Railbird · Mar 26, 2020

lots of jews getting it, and men get it 60-40 over women. maybe jewish blood type is O like the Armenians. Weinstein has it, The gay dude Andy Cohen has it. Brentwood, New Rochelle, nyc.

Enfuego · Mar 26, 2020

Sal santorre said:
No, he doesn't and he never will get it along with the others that keep repeating the same mantra.

Sal, you need to stop hopping on other people's comments. Come in and add something on your own and be your own man. It would be a productive discussion if you did that.

Enfuego · Mar 26, 2020

bigbet1234 said:
Listen dipshit. You know this is different than the flu. Right?

If you're going to insult me, we aren't talking about anything.

Willie99 · Mar 26, 2020

mango said:
Orange leader plants the seed in their empty heads that the Coronavirus is no worse than the flu.

Then Fox News waters and cultivates it that it's no worse than the flu.

The weak minded morons come to believe that it's no worse than the flu and defends it even when proven wrong.

Brainwashing 101.

It's an analogy, an analogy about how it spreads, how many people have it and how many people die from it, AND NO HYSTERIA TO BE FOUND.

You're right, there's no comparison, we need 50 million more inflictions and up to 50,000 more deaths to be as bad as the flu

The only difference between this pandemic and all it's predecessors is that this one is new, so it's "different"

Of course, we were told they were all "different" at some point in time

StevieRay · Mar 26, 2020

Railbird said:
yep, John Rocker was right about Newyork.

Willie99 · Mar 26, 2020

Damn, almost forgot another major difference, "this one is Trump's fault"

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