Oaklawn 04-04-2020

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OP 04-04-2020


race #1 - 8.5f
... race is wide open if fav falters
#4 3-1 KRISTI'S COPILOT - hate this trainer, logical, great post, drops, inspect
#9 8-1 GRAY SKY - sneaky fit, Lukas adds bug with the stretch/drop ... Tapit grays prefer longer and this one likes slop.
#1 15-1 DAPPER JACK - Fernando back up
#10 5-1 EIGHTS AND ACES - good work

race #2 - 8.5f
#3 10-1 MOON IN THE SKY - jock+
#8 9-2 LISTEN TO ROSE - on wrong lead in last, likely switches correct today like usual
#11 4-1 HOT IRON - jock+
#13 8-1 BLANCO BRONCO

race #3 - 6f
... very tough race
#11 4-1 CALCULATING KING
#2 9-2 ZEROED IN - bad post or would have put on top ... tuff field to wire but would need to
#4 8-1 PLATINUM NIGHTS - jock sticks

race #4 - 8.5f
#6 3-1 CHEROKEE MAIDEN
#5 7-2 KIZZY B
#8 6-1 BEST INTENTIONS

race #5 - 6f
#6 3-1 DRENA'S STAR
#9 20-1 FAREEQ
#5 6-1 LEO

race #6 - 6f
... wide open
#8 9-2 JACK VAN BERG
#5 8-1 BELEWS GOLD - jock+
#9 7-2 EXULTATION
#1 4-1 BOX OF CHOCOLATES

race #7 - 6f
#3 7-2 MARYANORGINGER
#2 4-1 INTHEMIDSTOFBIZ
#9 9-2 CARDAMON
#6 8-1 DULCE RIDE

race #8 - 8.5f
#5 3-1 ANSWER IN
#3 9-2 GENERAL TREV
#7 8-1 FORT KNOX

race #9 - 6f
#1 4-1 KIMARI
#4 3-1 EDGEWAY
#8 5-2 FRANK'S ROCKETTE

race #10 - 8.5f
... wide open
#2 8-1 GREAT FACES
#5 7-2 WILD UNION
#12 6-1 ON D'ORO
#8 6-1 MO AND GO


FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
"fiddler" - don't expect top effort if low price
My wagers are exacta keybox top pick, plus straight win bet on top pick.
Good luck to all!
 

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Oaklawn is Muddy. Capped it for Sloppy. I'll sample the first race or 2 track variants and see what's what.
 

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Oaklawn variant for 1st race is +6 ..... which is about a length slower than their Fast track. Guessing track will play similar to Fast except deeper runners have a little better chance than on Fast track. Don't expect any more detriment to the 1 hole. If the track turns sloppy over the course of the day then the rail will hurt sprinters.
 

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Oaklawn variant for 1st race is +6 ..... which is about a length slower than their Fast track. Guessing track will play similar to Fast except deeper runners have a little better chance than on Fast track. Don't expect any more detriment to the 1 hole. If the track turns sloppy over the course of the day then the rail will hurt sprinters.
And naturally .... track is now listed Sloppy
 

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Hey Prof, Doesn't sloppy play the same as fast??? I don't know the difference but it seems to me that speed horses would have an edge???
 

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Depends on the track, but Sloppy plays closer to Fast than Muddy.
Oaklawn inside posts 1 and 2 don't fare well on Sloppy (according to stats), going short. Likely too much water to splash thru unless you can clear and get over a little. Other than that, Oaklawn will play similar to fast, IMO.
 

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I'm using stats over the last 18 months for Oaklawn. I can break it down Fast, Muddy, Sloppy...
 

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Sorry, I meant to say, my stats are already broken down by various conditions Fast, Muddy, Sloppy ... ect.
 

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Nice $54 9-2 exacta in the 7th.
PF I appreciate your handicapping and time investment.
How do you decide which track(s) you handicap each day?
 

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Nice $54 9-2 exacta in the 7th. PF I appreciate your handicapping and time investment. How do you decide which track(s) you handicap each day?
Sorry, outside of yesterday, my last 4 or 5 posts have simply stunk.

I play many tracks/races each day. I only get the urge to post if I think there's a couple playable races with pays on the card. Or if a track has puzzled me, then I will post their card until I've got them completely ironed out.
Mostly I'm interested in live races. Not 6 horse fields and 3-1 winners.

Today's off track played to outside posts, clearly. Not an excuse. An observation.
Not happy with my posts. I cap every card each day though.
 

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One other thing is a track needs to have reasonable scratches-posted time. If they post scratches 30 minutes to post that isn't enough time to re-vamp picks.
 

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