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Thread: Best Bets On NFL Win Totals 🏈

  1. #1 Best Bets On NFL Win Totals 🏈 
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    Hache Man's Avatar
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    Jan 2002
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    Best bets on NFL win totals, playoffs: Fade New England?


    The majority of the sports world is in a holding pattern, but there are still betting options.

    Caesars Sportsbook released its win totals for all 32 NFL teams, providing an opportunity to get a head start on the upcoming season.

    The majority of the sports world is in a holding pattern, but there are still betting options.

    Caesars Sportsbook released its win totals for all 32 NFL teams, providing an opportunity to get a head start on the upcoming season.

    Marks: The Patriots under 8.5 wins is my second-favorite play (Buffalo over 9 is my top pick). With all due respect to Bill Belichick, don't underestimate the loss of Brady; they were a package deal.

    I'm a fan of Jarrett Stidham and believe he will be a good starter in the league -- assuming reports that he will start are true -- but this will be a developmental year. The Pats also lost a number of defensive players who joined their former defensive coordinators (now head coaches) in Detroit and Miami.

    New England has one of the most difficult schedules this season, and don't sleep on the Dolphins or Jets. This is a "push the reset button" year for New England, as difficult as that may be for Pats fans to accept.

    Dallas Cowboys over 9.5 wins

    Johnson: I would be remiss not to admit that my Cowboys season wins under bet a year ago benefited from some good fortune. Dallas outscored its opponents by 113 points, which was the third-largest point differential in the NFC behind the 49ers (+169) and the Saints (+117). Two of that trio I think most would admit were the clear-cut favorites to come out of the NFC, and the other didn't even make the playoffs.

    The Cowboys finished 8-8, but it wasn't without seeing serious improvements under first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore on offense. Dallas averaged 6.5 yards per play, which led the NFL (the next best were Kansas City at 6.2 and Baltimore at 6.1, for context). In the passing game in particular, Dak Prescott finished top five in yards per pass attempt after finishing 18th and 21st the two seasons prior. Moore remains on the coaching staff despite Mike McCarthy stepping in for Jason Garrett, and as mundane as we all felt McCarthy got in Green Bay, I'm confident he's an upgrade over Garrett.

    I currently project the Cowboys to have the 10th-easiest schedule in the NFL, and at the price of +100 to win 10 or more games, it's worth grabbing now. There won't be a lack of Dallas money in the futures market, so when I like an over on a public-heavy team, I prefer to grab it earlier rather than later.

    Denver Broncos over 7.5 wins

    Kezirian: I faded and criticized Drew Lock often at Missouri, but he seems to be a good fit in Denver. After starting 0-4 last season, the Broncos eventually punted on Joe Flacco, and Lock posted a 4-1 mark as a starter to close the season.

    All signs point to the Broncos adding an impact wide receiver in the draft, and this team should be a sneaky candidate to make the playoffs. We all know the mile-high altitude and strong defense give the Broncos a home edge, and now head coach Vic Fangio has a full season under his belt.

    Washington Redskins over 4.5 wins

    Kezirian: This requires a strong stomach, but it feels like the right side. A lot of my hopes hinge on Kyle Allen starting over Dwayne Haskins, who needs more game experience. Ron Rivera should also stabilize the franchise and set a tone for a healthy culture that ultimately leads to victories.

    Washington is expected to draft Ohio State defensive end Chase Young, whom many consider already ready to impact the NFL. The team lacks offensive playmakers, but the schedule is favorable. The Giants, Bengals, Panthers, Cardinals and Lions all present opportunities for wins, and the defense should give them other chances.

    Buffalo Bills under 9 wins

    Kezirian: Before Bills Mafia searches for my home address, I'd like to remind them that I touted Buffalo +500 to make the playoffs last spring. I am a big fan of head coach Sean McDermott and that defense, especially with the offseason acquisitions.

    However, the schedule makes double-digit wins a challenge. A single victory over any of the four NFC West teams will be difficult, given Buffalo must travel to Arizona, and even the AFC West slate poses more trouble than pleasure. Within the AFC East, a win over New England is now more doable without Brady, but I also see the Jets and Dolphins as candidates to improve significantly. I'm also on the Bills missing the playoffs (+175).

    Johnson: Buffalo traded for Stefon Diggs and Tom Brady took his talents to Tampa Bay, and now it seems like the whole world loves the Bills in 2020. I'm not in that camp. They shift from one of the easiest schedules in the NFL last season to one of the toughest (they face the AFC West and NFC West now out of the division). They missed the fourth-fewest starts as a team in 2019, and when adjusting for the actual quality of those missed starts, the Bills were the healthiest team in the NFL by a fairly big margin last season.

    All things point to regression from a health perspective as well as a few other luck factors, like fumbles lost per game (they fumbled 1.5 times per game on average last season yet lost only 0.5 per game; the stat tends to regress toward 50-50, historically).

    With actual expectations set for Josh Allen now against a much more difficult schedule, I'm not sure I can give him my trust. The 2019 version of Buffalo has a lot of 2017 Jaguars and 2018 Bears in it, and this isn't a good thing looking toward the 2020 season. I also like Buffalo at +175 to miss the playoffs.

    Marks: My favorite over/under win total this season is the Bills over 9 wins. Talk about a perfect storm brewing for Buffalo. Brady takes his talent to the NFC South, leaving the Patriots without a legit field general. Allen enters his third season sporting an improved arsenal with the addition of Stefon Diggs. The Bills' dominant defense improved as well in free agency with the additions of Quinton Jefferson, Vernon Butler and Mario Addison.

    Buffalo had one of the healthiest teams last season, but if that is not a repeat performance this season, the Bills have the depth to lock and reload. Not to mention the Bills have a favorable schedule, where the most difficult opponents are home games against the Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams.
    Baltimore Ravens over 12 wins

    Kezirian: With the coronavirus pandemic significantly disrupting this offseason, I firmly believe continuity will play a major role. John Harbaugh is as solid as they come, and I expect the Ravens to maintain that dominant offense with the versatile Lamar Jackson leading the way.

    Outside of the division, Baltimore faces the NFC East and AFC South, which does not concern me. I also think preparing for Jackson requires a particular focus and preparation that teams rarely demonstrate in the regular season; the playoffs are a different story. With stud kicker Justin Tucker providing a valuable edge in close games, Baltimore should flirt with the conference's top seed. I would love this play at 11.5 but will still lean on the number at 12.

    Chicago Bears under 8.5 wins

    Clay: I have Chicago projected for 6.1 wins, so you can imagine my reaction when I saw under 8.5 available at even money. The 2.4 gap between the projection and line is the largest I have on the books over the past five seasons. In fact, the only previous situations in which the gap was above 2.0 were the 2016 Rams (under 7.5 -- hit) and the 2018 Browns (over 5.5 -- hit). For what it's worth, bets in which my projection is at least 1.0 game off the line have a 15-7-2 hit rate (67%) since 2016.

    So, why the low projection? For starters, the Bears do not have a good quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky has been one of the league's least efficient passers since entering the league, and Nick Foles has struggled aside from the occasional stretch with Philadelphia. As a whole, Chicago's offense is one of the league's worst on paper, which isn't exactly bold considering it ranked 29th in yards and points last season and its only impact offseason additions were Foles and 33-year-old Jimmy Graham. The Chicago defense is still good, but it's no longer the dominant unit of 2018 after crashing back to earth in most categories last season.

    The Bears have gone over eight wins once over the past seven seasons and, though they got close at 8-8 last season, their only win against a team with a winning record (that wasn't resting players) was an early-season home win against Minnesota.

    Fortenbaugh: Imagine an NFL franchise winning eight games in 2019 despite a quarterback who:

    A. Threw fewer TD passes than a guy who missed three contests with mono.
    B. Threw more interceptions than Josh Allen.
    C. Averaged fewer passing yards per game than Daniel Jones.
    D. Recorded a lower completion percentage than Case Keenum.
    E. Posted a lower passer rating than Joe Flacco, who was cut this offseason.
    F. Averaged fewer yards per attempt passing than everybody in the league.

    I'm not saying Foles is going to light Michigan Avenue on fire, but league-average quarterback play with this defense should be enough to score nine victories in 2020.

    Seattle Seahawks under 9.5 wins

    Fortenbaugh: You could make a strong case that Seattle caught more breaks last season than any team in the NFL en route to producing the league's seventh-best record (11-5) despite the 14th-best scoring differential (+7).

    Speaking of scoring differential, a +7 mark over 16 games is more indicative of an 8-win team than an 11-win team, so we should expect some regression in 2020 from an outfit that went an astounding 10-2 in one-score contests (games decided by 8 or fewer points) with a +12 turnover differential (T-3rd in NFL).

    Indianapolis Colts over 8.5 wins

    Johnson: In 2018 before Andrew Luck's sudden retirement, the Colts won 10 games and a road wild-card matchup over the Texans. More impressive was Frank Reich getting seven wins on the fly without Luck in 2019 with Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer under center. Reich is one of my favorite coaches in the NFL, and acquiring a competent veteran quarterback in Philip Rivers certainly warrants an early look on Indy.

    The Colts bolstered their defense with the acquisition of DeForest Buckner and project to have the easiest schedule in the NFL. Every other team in the AFC South looks to take a step back, and I'd be surprised if this win total wasn't nine later this summer, so I'm grabbing the 8.5 early.

    Clay: You had to feel for the Colts a bit last season after they were blindsided by Luck's August retirement and then forced to start Brissett and Hoyer. The roster was otherwise solid and helped Indianapolis to a 7-9 record with quality wins against the Titans, Chiefs and Texans.

    Looking forward, GM Chris Ballard had another strong offseason, upgrading at quarterback with Rivers, re-signing star LT Anthony Castonzo and trading for arguably the NFC champion 49ers' best player in Buckner. The Colts have compiled what is arguably a top-five defense with no clear weak spots, as well as an elite offensive line.

    Per my metrics, Indianapolis will enjoy the league's easiest schedule this season, with the rest of the AFC South likely to see a decline and with matchups against the AFC and NFC North on the books. A lot is riding on 38-year-old Rivers, but even a solid campaign should be enough to allow this roster nine wins and the division title. I don't love the juice (-120), but with a 9.6 projection, I feel good about the over.

    Marks: I'm very hesitant to wager on new gunslingers or new head coaches this season due to the preparation obstacles the coronavirus pandemic is presenting, but given the fact that Rivers has previously spent three years with Reich, five years with Colts OC Nick Sirianni and knows at least 80% of the Colts' offensive playbook, I feel OK with this one. Rivers goes from playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL to one of the best. And with a stacked Colts defense, I'm banking on Ballard grabbing an elite wide receiver with the 34th pick to work opposite T.Y. Hilton. If USC wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. falls to the Colts, oh boy, watch out!

    Cincinnati Bengals over 5 wins

    Clay: The early line on Cincinnati is 5, which is bit surprising for a team that won two games in 2019 but had six-plus wins each of the previous eight seasons. Of course, all that matters is the season in front of us, and this Bengals roster is much better than it was in 2019, especially on defense. Unlike last offseason's pathetic effort, Cincinnati was very aggressive during free agency, revamping its secondary with Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander and Vonn Bell, while also adding star DT D.J. Reader and underrated LB Josh Bynes.

    The offense is a bigger question mark, but 2019 first-round pick LT Jonah Williams and A.J. Green will both return after missing all of last season. The line remains a problem overall, but the skill positions are in good shape aside from perhaps the most important one: quarterback. Cincinnati is expected to select Joe Burrow with the first pick of April's draft. Burrow will immediately start, barring disaster, and we don't know for sure how he'll adjust to the pros. That makes this one risky, but the improved roster around the quarterback should still keep the Bengals competitive and in the mix to hit their projected win total of 6.4.

    Others to consider

    Clay: Lions over 6.5, Giants over 5.5, Steelers over 9, Ravens under 12
    Marks: Raiders over 7, Buccaneers under 9, Seahawks over 9.5
    Fortenbaugh: Bills under 9, Chargers under 8.5, Colts over 8.5

    Playoffs yes/no

    Yes, San Francisco 49ers make playoffs (-325)

    Kezirian: I respect the Super Bowl hangover. But this is all about making the playoffs, rather than winning the division or even advancing in the postseason. Given the new postseason format, are three non-division winners really going to finish with a better record? Remember, this San Francisco team was incredibly dominant at full strength in 2019. The injuries mounted on defense in the middle of the season, and stud tight end George Kittle also missed some time. On top of that, within the division, I expect both the Rams and Seahawks to regress.

    Los Angeles has issues on offense, largely due to a wildly inconsistent Jared Goff. Seattle inexplicably went 7-1 on the road last year and outscored opponents by only seven total points in an 11-5 season. That cannot continue.
    Yes, Tampa Bay Buccaneers make playoffs (-155)

    Kezirian: Tom Brady is the storyline and for good reason. The six-time Super Bowl champ brings a wealth of experience that I think will have a positive impact on a locker room desperate for a winning culture. I firmly believe Brady's impact will be felt in ways beyond the QB position.

    However, this roster also has plenty of talent. Even at 43 years old, Brady will thrive with an arsenal of receivers, led by Mike Evans, and he will also benefit from strong tight end play. While Jameis Winston was impressive at times last season, he also led the NFL with 30 interceptions. Brady's sound decision-making will be critical in a league that has a slim margin of error. Plus, the defense is better than people realize.

    I think Brady and Bruce Arians have enough for a playoff berth to nab one of three NFC wild cards. A -155 price translates to 58.5%, and I think Tampa's playoff chances are higher.
    No, Green Bay Packers do not make playoffs (+120)

    Fortenbaugh: With the possible exception of the Seahawks, no team found itself on the jubilant side of luck more often last season than the Packers, who posted the league's second-best record at 13-3 despite the ninth-best scoring differential (+63).

    A further descent down the rabbit hole reveals an 8-1 record in one-score games as well as a +12 turnover differential (T-3rd), two strong indicators that regression is on the horizon. Given the overall strength of the NFC, anything on the plus money side of the ledger will have me betting "No" on the Packers to qualify for the postseason.

    No, Patriots do not make playoffs (+170)

    Fortenbaugh: Forget about the loss of Tom Brady for a second and, instead, focus on the absurd fact that the Patriots defeated just two teams with a winning record on their way to a 12-4 campaign last season (Buffalo twice, Philadelphia). This, despite concluding the year ranked first in the league in turnover differential, first in total defense and first in scoring defense. Now go ahead and remove the greatest quarterback who ever played the game from the equation and tell me just how confident you are in laying -190 on the "Yes" option here.
    Others to consider

    Fortenbaugh: Colts Yes (-145), Titans No (+120)
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  2. #2  
    RX Junior
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    I bet the SB loser under the total every year which has proven to be profitable.
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  3. #3  
    RX Senior Redagger029's Avatar
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    I'll take Patriots do not make playoffs (+170)
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  4. #4  
    RX Junior Mr. Bojangles's Avatar
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    I love GB not making playoffs +120. Very fortunate last year and got a feeling about to be lots of drama w/ drafting Love.
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  5. #5  
    RX Wizard thekeyman's Avatar
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    the dead zone
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Bojangles View Post
    I love GB not making playoffs +120. Very fortunate last year and got a feeling about to be lots of drama w/ drafting Love.

    Whats up with Aaron Rodgers this off season, as he has been very active with his mouth in a negative way.He seems to be stiring up a lot of shit.This is only hurting his team as they can get the wrong vibes.
    Whether it's the best of times or the worst of times, it's the only time we've got.
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  6. #6  
    RX Member Wins2day's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thekeyman View Post
    Whats up with Aaron Rodgers this off season, as he has been very active with his mouth in a negative way.He seems to be stiring up a lot of shit.This is only hurting his team as they can get the wrong vibes.
    He's a helpless ego driven individual IMO.
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by thekeyman View Post
    Whats up with Aaron Rodgers this off season, as he has been very active with his mouth in a negative way.He seems to be stiring up a lot of shit.This is only hurting his team as they can get the wrong vibes.
    I wonder if he would feel the same way had they used the 1st rounder on someone he thought could help him win now.

    The Gm and coach must’ve really liked love. They could have looked at qb later on in draft or next few offseasons since Rogers is owed big money through 2022. Gb can cut ties in 22 and eat 17 mil in dead cap if they really want a divorce.

    Nobody liking them not to make playoffs isn’t concerned how the other 3 teams in division aren’t very good?
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  8. #8  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Never bet an Over until training camps and Preseason are done, usually a couple of pieces get lost every year in this meaningless time period.
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  9. #9  
    RX Junior Bruins4Life's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by powerz View Post
    Never bet an Over until training camps and Preseason are done, usually a couple of pieces get lost every year in this meaningless time period.
    Agree. I would only play unders early. One key injury is all it takes.
    How did a generation raised on South Park and Family Guy become sooooo sensitive?
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  10. #10  
    RX Member valetudo's Avatar
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    Betting on overs is risky, so for now i bet on other sports
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