Best Prop Bets For 2020 NFL Draft ?

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[h=1]Best prop bets for the 2020 NFL draft[/h]
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The 2020 NFL draft is still scheduled to take place April 23-25, which gives us an opportunity to look at some betting futures for the incoming class. Our betting experts -- Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson, Anita Marks, Seth Walder and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network -- offer their best prop bets as draft day approaches.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.

[h=2]QBs drafted in first round: Over 4 (-120)[/h]Kezirian: This feels like a push, at worst. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa will all be drafted in the first round. This comes down to Jordan Love and Jacob Eason. In Todd McShay's latest mock draft, he had Love at No. 6 and ahead of Herbert. We also know that teams tend to fall in love with quarterbacks as draft day nears. Mel Kiper Jr. has Eason being chosen late in the first round, so I will roll the dice here and hope for five, but I'll probably settle for a push.


Johnson: Burrow, Tagovailoa and Herbert are likely to all be drafted by pick No. 6 (Chargers) now that Philip Rivers will be under center in Indianapolis. There is growing buzz that Love could be picked in the top 10 as well, but at the very worst, I don't see him sliding past the Patriots at pick No. 23 now that Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay. That gives us the latter part of the first round to sneak in Eason (and a very outside shot at Jalen Hurts or Jake Fromm). This bet will push a good portion of the time, but the chance that we see five quarterbacks taken compared to just three at this point is well worth the -140 price tag.


Youmans: Betting over four appears to be a free shot because at worst the wager should push. After Burrow and Tagovailoa, Herbert and Love are widely considered locks to go in the first round. Love's stock started soaring at the scouting combine in late February. All four could go in the top 10. Eason, who started his college career at Georgia and finished at Washington, is a long shot to go late in the first round. The worst-case scenario seems to be a push, and you would make a bet like that every time.


Marks: I anticipate five QBs to be drafted in the first round. My QB draft order is Burrow, Herbert, Love, Tua and Jake Fromm. I'm hearing that a number of coaches, offensive coordinators and QB coaches are falling in love with Fromm. He is crushing his interviews, and drafting Fromm in the first round -- which locks in that fifth-year contract option -- is key for any organization.



[h=2]Who will be the first RB selected? D'Andre Swift (-200)[/h]At DraftKings
Youmans: I got the best price on this prop at +115 and remain confident that the former Georgia star will go before Jonathan Taylor and J.K. Dobbins. Swift is priced at around -200 now.


[h=2]Andrew Thomas drafted in the top 11 (Yes -110)[/h]Marks: Thomas is the only legit plug-and-play offensive lineman in this draft. Not to say that Mekhi Becton, Tristan Wirfs or Jedrick Wills won't start, but they are projects with holes in their games. Thomas started at right tackle his freshman year and left tackle his following two at Georgia. He has the highest floor and is the most polished offensive lineman. I expect the Giants, Cardinals, Browns or Jets to select him in the top 11.


[h=2]Jedrick Wills to the New York Giants (+400)[/h]Johnson: Rumors started ramping up Thursday that the Giants are looking at Wills with the No. 4 pick. A large portion of betting the NFL draft props is gauging which information is worthwhile and trustworthy and which is not. A few bettors I know who dig in to the NFL draft day in and day out right now bet Wills at this +400 price. That's good enough for me, with New York's biggest need being the offensive line.


Wirfs is the other option on the offensive line, but the Wills discussion needs to be correct only 20% of the time at +400 to avoid losing money long-term in this spot.


[h=2]Exact order of first three players: Field 8-1[/h]Kezirian: I see three scenarios that enable cashing this ticket. First, the Washington Redskins could trade down with a team seeking a quarterback and still land Chase Young, so that would incentivize them enough. Second, the Detroit Lions could also trade down. Third, the Lions could draft a non-QB not listed among the options (Simmons, Okudah, Wirfs). Auburn's Derrick Brown and Alabama's Wills could go to Detroit. These are juicy odds for such a random even filled with secrecy and questionable decision-makers.


[h=2]Burrow, Young, Herbert (+1050)[/h]
Johnson: This is ultimately a shot on the Chargers or Dolphins trading up to pick No. 3 to take Herbert. If the Tua's-draft-stock-is-falling buzz is the real deal, the perceived value in the next best quarterback option for two teams that need to draft one will be sky-high. I'll take a price offering over 10-1 that it goes down.


[h=2]Yes, Justin Herbert drafted in the top five (-110)[/h]Youmans: The No. 3 spot seems to be where the draft gets especially unpredictable. Detroit is suddenly showing interest in a quarterback, but it's likely a smoke screen to induce competing trade offers from the Dolphins, Chargers or another team.


There are too many concerns about Tagovailoa's durability and recovery from ankle and hip injuries, so Herbert is a safer bet. Maybe he's the next Dan Marino, maybe not, but I do expect Herbert to go third or fifth. I bet Herbert's draft position under 5.5 (+140) and still would play the top-5 price of -110 at Caesars.


Marks: I expect Herbert to be the second QB selected on Thursday. Tua's health issues are a huge red flag, and I'm hearing that his Zoom interviews are not going very well. I expect the Dolphins to select Herbert with the fifth pick or a team trading up with Detroit to select Herbert at No. 3.


[h=2]Team to draft Tua Tagovailoa: Raiders 14-1[/h]Kezirian: I wouldn't wager a full unit here, but I think this warrants a small play. If we are to believe the reports of Tua dropping due to injury concerns, I could see the Raiders trading up a few spots to grab the potential star. I just don't think Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock will be able to control themselves. Tua has the arm talent and leadership intangibles, and we all know the team isn't sold on Derek Carr. Given that we have seen numerous teams come out of nowhere to move up to grab a QB in recent years, this makes even more sense.


[h=2]First player selected by 49ers: Defense (+160)[/h]Youmans: Most mock drafters project the 49ers to take a wide receiver at No. 13 to replace Emmanuel Sanders, who signed with the Saints. The Caesars oddsmakers appear to expect the same. But San Francisco needs help on the defensive front after trading DeForest Buckner to Indianapolis. The 49ers hold two first-round picks and could go defense -- South Carolina tackle Javon Kinlaw, LSU linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson or Florida cornerback CJ Henderson -- before grabbing a receiver at No. 31. That's the smart move because of the impressive depth of this receiver class.


[h=2]Jeff Okudah draft position over 3.5 (-130)[/h]At William Hill
Youmans: NFL coaches and general managers must approach the draft like advantage gamblers and try to get maximum value out of each draft position. A team taking Okudah at No. 3 overall is not getting great value. Detroit can stay in the third spot and take Okudah, a shutdown corner, or trade down two or three spots and still get him. The right move is to trade down. It isn't even a lock that the Lions would draft Okudah when Isaiah Simmons and Derrick Brown are available.


[h=2]Derrick Brown draft position under 8.5 (-130)[/h]At William Hill


Youmans: Detroit might draft Brown, a 6-foot-5, 325-pound run-stuffer from Auburn, in the top five. If not, Carolina should take him with the No. 7 pick. Following the surprising retirement of linebacker Luke Kuechly and the free-agent acquisition of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, it's a good bet that the Panthers' pick will be a defensive player such as Brown or Simmons.


[h=2]Antoine Winfield Jr. draft position under 46.5 (-110)[/h]At William Hill
Youmans: The only negative with Winfield is his height (5-foot-9), but he's a sturdy 205-pounder with 4.45 speed. He made seven interceptions and 88 tackles last season for Minnesota. Winfield is one of the top three safeties in the draft and a potential first-round pick.


[h=2]J.K. Dobbins draft position under 53.5 (-110)[/h]At William Hill
Youmans: Anticipate a run on running backs late in the first round or early in the second. Dobbins, who had 301 carries for 2,003 yards and added 23 receptions last season for Ohio State, ranks as the third-best back in the draft class and should be off the board by the middle of the second round.


[h=2]Under 6 wide receivers taken in the first round (-145)[/h]Kezirian: I understand the allure of these skilled wide receivers. However, only once (2004) have we seen seven wideouts drafted in the first round. Plus, the position depth essentially allows teams to grab a more scarce position when that team can draft a comparable WR in the second round.


I do expect Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb and Henry Ruggs III to be selected in Round 1. I imagine another two will join them, but nothing is guaranteed. I truly believe the 20s will feature a slew of offensive linemen and impact players in the secondary that will cause this prop to cash the under more than 59% (which is what -145 implies).


[h=2]SEC vs. field -- number of first-round players: Field +0.5 (-240)[/h]
Walder: Let's count the locks: Burrow, Tagovailoa, Brown, Wirfs, Wills, Thomas, Jeudy, Ruggs, Henderson, Chaisson, Jefferson, Queen, Kinlaw, McKinney. That's 14. Now, not all of those are 100%, but let's just say they are. The SEC needs three more to hit here. Per ESPN's NFL Draft Predictor, there are a few SEC players not on that list who have a reasonable shot at the first round.


Swift is almost a coin flip. Grant Delpit has about a one in three chance and Kristian Fulton about a one in four chance. Then there are some long shots who could slip in there: Trevon Diggs, Justin Madubuike, Noah Igbinoghene, Isaiah Wilson, Lloyd Cushenberry III, Prince Tega Wanogho, Terrell Lewis.


The problem is that these players' percentages aren't independent of one another. Using the NFL Draft Predictor, we (well, my colleague Brian Burke) built a simulator off our model to determine the likelihood that 17 SEC players would be selected in the first 32 picks. The answer: very unlikely -- and plenty unlikely enough to be willing to lay the -240.



[h=2]In which round will Jalen Hurts be selected? Rounds 4-7 (+1000)[/h]
Walder: Our NFL Draft Predictor gets less certain later in the draft -- not all mocks go that deep -- but it has an opinion on players such as Hurts, who have a wide range of outcomes. The model thinks the third round is Hurts' most likely landing spot, but the value on rounds 4-7 is tremendous. We think there's just under a 28% chance that Hurts goes in those rounds, a major disagreement from the market.


Hedging some with the third round probably makes sense. As far as the NFL Draft Predictor is concerned, that would have 90% of Hurts' range covered, all on plus money.


[h=2]Who will be selected first, Kenneth Murray or Patrick Queen? Murray (-150)[/h]Walder: Four of the mock drafts in our draft predictor have Murray ahead of Queen, though there often isn't a ton of room between the two linebackers. Ultimately, the model suggests that there is a 70% chance that Murray goes first, so it's worth laying the -150.


Our NFL draft projections are particularly fond of Murray as well.
 

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