UFC Fight Night: Best bets for Walt Harris vs. Alistair Overeem
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The UFC tripleheader from Jacksonville, Florida, has posted two main events so far that have brought extreme brutality. And the main finale saved for ESPN prime time on Saturday night -- featuring two highly ranked, hard-hitting heavyweights -- also should end with a bang. I just don't expect this week's fighters to withstand nearly as many punches as we've seen in the past two main events.
Prelims from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 9 p.m.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Heavyweight main event: No. 8 Walt Harris (-155) vs. No. 9 Alistair Overeem (+135)
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The stats show a stark contrast when it comes to distance striking, which is where most of this fight should take place. We have Overeem, the most accurate striker in the UFC, against Harris, who owns a knockdown rate that ranks him just second in the UFC's hardest-hitting division. The question is whether Overeem can win the combinations and accumulate damage without getting caught with the big shot that tends to define his losses.
Both guys are big hitters, with 17 knockdowns scored combined in the UFC. But Harris scores them at more than twice the rate of Overeem on a per-strike basis. Harris is tied with former champ Cain Velasquez in terms of per-strike knockdown rate among heavyweights, behind only Francis Ngannou.
Overeem's clinch game can be brutal, but when he can't keep his opponent in front of him or against the cage to work knees, he sometimes gets caught chasing or just taking minutes off. At this point in his career, he can't afford to let Harris test his chin. But a good defense still requires an offense.
Overeem's best-in-class accuracy should slow down any opponent. But that also slows down Overeem's pace, allowing opponents to be busier while Overeem looks for a counter. When it comes to the pace of strike attempts while standing, Overeem has the lowest average output of any heavyweight and the second lowest among active UFC fighters, ahead of only Gunnar Nelson.
Harris is no newcomer, but he hasn't taken the same career damage that Overeem has. Harris has suffered a knockout loss only twice in his career, while Overeem has taken 14, with seven coming in the UFC. In a five-round fight, both men could conserve enough energy to swing for knockouts well beyond the early rounds, and they should each have their chances. It just seems that Harris is more durable and also more of a threat when standing and trading.
E+ recommends: ML play on Harris.
Other fight card values
When Claudia Gadelha (-190) takes on Angela Hill (+160), we should see an evenly matched stand-up duel between two very accurate strikers. But on the ground, there's a bigger difference in who can control the minutes. Gadelha has faced the tougher opponents and performed well. While it could be close, Gadelha should have the edge in a three-round fight.
E+ recommends: ML play on Gadelha.
Edson Barboza (-140) is one of the best strikers in the game, but he'll be cutting an extra weight class for the first time and taking on an aggressive wrestler in Dan Ige (+110). Ige is the underdog, but he has a chance to stifle Barboza's striking while also sapping a gas tank that has cut more weight than usual.
E+ recommends: ML lean on Ige. The over 2.5 rounds.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The UFC tripleheader from Jacksonville, Florida, has posted two main events so far that have brought extreme brutality. And the main finale saved for ESPN prime time on Saturday night -- featuring two highly ranked, hard-hitting heavyweights -- also should end with a bang. I just don't expect this week's fighters to withstand nearly as many punches as we've seen in the past two main events.
Prelims from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 9 p.m.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Heavyweight main event: No. 8 Walt Harris (-155) vs. No. 9 Alistair Overeem (+135)
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<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 811px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); color: rgb(29, 30, 31); font-size: 16px;">Tale Of The Tape
| ALISTAIR OVEREEM | WALT HARRIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Age | 40 | 36 |
| Height | 76 | 77 |
| Reach | 76 | 70 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Analyzed minutes | 168 | 86 |
| Standup striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 9:7 | 8:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 4.0% | 9.1% |
| Head jab accuracy | 60% | 17% |
| Head power accuracy | 50% | 26% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 70% | 75% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 95% | 99% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| Takedown accuracy | 28% | 33% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 31 | 17 |
| Takedown defense | 74% | 76% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 75% | 42% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.20 | 0.17 |
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The stats show a stark contrast when it comes to distance striking, which is where most of this fight should take place. We have Overeem, the most accurate striker in the UFC, against Harris, who owns a knockdown rate that ranks him just second in the UFC's hardest-hitting division. The question is whether Overeem can win the combinations and accumulate damage without getting caught with the big shot that tends to define his losses.
Both guys are big hitters, with 17 knockdowns scored combined in the UFC. But Harris scores them at more than twice the rate of Overeem on a per-strike basis. Harris is tied with former champ Cain Velasquez in terms of per-strike knockdown rate among heavyweights, behind only Francis Ngannou.
Overeem's clinch game can be brutal, but when he can't keep his opponent in front of him or against the cage to work knees, he sometimes gets caught chasing or just taking minutes off. At this point in his career, he can't afford to let Harris test his chin. But a good defense still requires an offense.
Overeem's best-in-class accuracy should slow down any opponent. But that also slows down Overeem's pace, allowing opponents to be busier while Overeem looks for a counter. When it comes to the pace of strike attempts while standing, Overeem has the lowest average output of any heavyweight and the second lowest among active UFC fighters, ahead of only Gunnar Nelson.
Harris is no newcomer, but he hasn't taken the same career damage that Overeem has. Harris has suffered a knockout loss only twice in his career, while Overeem has taken 14, with seven coming in the UFC. In a five-round fight, both men could conserve enough energy to swing for knockouts well beyond the early rounds, and they should each have their chances. It just seems that Harris is more durable and also more of a threat when standing and trading.
E+ recommends: ML play on Harris.
Other fight card values
When Claudia Gadelha (-190) takes on Angela Hill (+160), we should see an evenly matched stand-up duel between two very accurate strikers. But on the ground, there's a bigger difference in who can control the minutes. Gadelha has faced the tougher opponents and performed well. While it could be close, Gadelha should have the edge in a three-round fight.
E+ recommends: ML play on Gadelha.
Edson Barboza (-140) is one of the best strikers in the game, but he'll be cutting an extra weight class for the first time and taking on an aggressive wrestler in Dan Ige (+110). Ige is the underdog, but he has a chance to stifle Barboza's striking while also sapping a gas tank that has cut more weight than usual.
E+ recommends: ML lean on Ige. The over 2.5 rounds.
