Holy crap, Trump is on track to lose Georgia

I can already hear a certain sausage lip runt who is a psychotically stalking scumbag whining, "It's only 1339 people, and they probably over sampled Democrats...





Holy crap, Trump is on track to lose Georgia



Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday May 19, 2020 · 9:00 AM PDT



Yes, you read that right. Biden is beating Trump in Georgia.



I’ve been saying that there are seven presidential battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Six of the seven are obvious and long-standing battlegrounds. But … Georgia? Yes. Georgia.



The latest numbers are courtesy of Civiqs for Daily Kos:



All Urban Suburban Rural

Trump 47 31 43 67

Biden 48 63 52 27



Can you believe that impeached president Donald Trump won Georgia suburbs in 2016? The reason presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is winning in 2020 and Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 is the suburbs.



According to the 2016 exit polls, Trump won rural Georgia 67-29, which is virtually identical to what this poll found. Clinton won urban Georgia 68-29, again within rough range of Civiqs’ findings. But those suburban numbers! That’s the new ball game, going from Trump 51-46 in 2016 to 52-43 Biden in this poll—a 14-point swing.



It was massive shifts in the suburbs that delivered the House to Nancy Pelosi in 2018. It was that shift that delivered the Virginia legislature, and governors in red Louisiana and Kentucky in 2019. And it’s those suburbs that have made Georgia so competitive in 2020.



All Women Men 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Trump 47 41 54 34 40 51 62

Biden 48 54 41 54 56 45 36



Look at that 26-point gender gap!



As for ages, we don’t have an exact age match (the 2016 exit polls are 18-29, 30-44, 45-64, and 65+), but we know that Biden appears to be underperforming among young voters, something we’ve seen in plenty of polling already. That means that if and when Biden brings those votes home, his margin could be padded a little.



Among voters 65+, we’ve gone from 67-31 Trump in 2016 to 62-36 in this poll—from +36 Trump to +26. That’s a 10-point net drop. Perhaps these older voters don’t care to be cannon fodder in Trump’s war for Wall Street?



All white Black Hispanic non-college college

Trump 47 68 6 39 54 36

Biden 48 25 92 59 40 60



As bad as Biden’s numbers look among whites, that’s actually a real improvement over Hillary Clinton’s 2016 numbers—believe it or not—when Trump won whites 75-21. Meanwhile, Biden is improving over Clinton’s 89-9 Black performance in 2016!



Like most of the South, being a Democrat is being Black. Black Democrats are 25% of the state. White Democrats are about 5% of Georgians. Meanwhile, 95% of all Republicans are white.



Education, like in 2016, is a key factor in partisan affiliation. The more educated, the more Democratic. Post graduates are 71%-25% Biden. Too bad there aren’t more of them!



One last key factor: the double-haters. We've seen them already—voters who have unfavorable opinions of both Biden and Trump. In 2016, the double-haters swung 50-39 for Trump. The last Civiqs national poll had Biden winning the double-haters 40-7. NBC has it even more lopsided, with Biden winning double-haters 60-10.



In this Georgia poll? Biden is winning double-haters by a gaudy 60-2. Sure, many Democrats wish someone else had won the nomination, but people don’t really care because Donald Trump is president, period, the end.



This poll does bolster the case for my two top vice presidential possibilities—Georgia’s 2018 Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Stacey Abrams—for obvious reasons—and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who displayed strength among the white educated suburban women who have driven many of the Democratic gains in the last three years.



Now, some of you may be thinking: “This can’t be real! This is wishful thinking!” Well, we aren't the first pollsters to find Biden in the lead. That honor goes to a Republican pollster. "Currently, 46 percent of Georgia voters are backing President Donald Trump, while 47 percent are supporting Joe Biden," read the leaked poll from GOP outfit Public Opinion Strategies.



In fact, the Georgia Republican Party hasn’t been shy about broadcasting this state of affairs, likely in order to scare their donors into taking their state seriously.



Georgia GOP isn’t wrong, and neither is this poll. Georgia is very much a top-tier battleground.



Senate numbers are here, and they are just as dramatically amazing.



The poll was conducted May 16-18, with a margin of error of 3.1% (a whopping 1,339 respondents).

...and, that ain't all, lol. Take it in the ASS, Fat Boy:

New polls show trouble for Trump and Republicans in GOP strongholds

David KnowlesEditor
Yahoo NewsMay 19, 2020, 12:05 PM PM





Just-released polls contain bad news for President Trump and his Senate allies, with Joe Biden expanding the electoral map to states that have long been safe bastions for the Republican Party. Biden is solidifying his lead over Trump in Arizona, a state not won by a Democrat in a presidential race since Bill Clinton took it in 1996, according to a new survey by OH Predictive Insights. Biden leads Trump by 7 percentage points in Arizona. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points


The same survey also had bad news for Senate Republican incumbent Martha McSally, who appears to be losing ground in her reelection bid against Democrat Mark Kelly. A former astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, Kelly now leads McSally by 13 points. A month earlier, the same poll showed Kelly ahead by 9 points.
In Georgia, Biden leads Trump by a single percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent, according to a poll conducted by Civiqs/Daily Kos that was released Tuesday and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
An internal poll conducted last week by a group backing Georgia’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp found Biden ahead of Trump by a margin of 47 percent to 46 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Both polls showed Democrat Jon Ossoff running strong against incumbent GOP Sen. David Perdue. While Ossoff has yet to secure his party’s nomination, he leads Perdue by 2 percentage points in the Civiqs/Daily Kos poll and trails by 2 points in the internal Republican poll.

President Trump. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)If Biden does defeat Trump in November, Democrats will need to flip just three Senate seats to retake control of the chamber where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 seat advantage. With Biden’s victory in the Democratic primary coupled with the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, the chances of what had been considered a long shot have greatly increased.
“It’s an extraordinary turn of events,” Neil Newhouse, a GOP pollster, told Vox. “This is not the political environment we expected at the beginning of the year.”
Not all the polls in recent weeks show Biden and Democrats cruising to victory. While the presumptive Democratic nominee also leads Trump in Florida by 4.6 points among likely voters, according to a poll released Tuesday by Point Blank Political, an Emerson College poll released last week showed the president leading Biden in Texas by a margin of 52 percent to 48 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
Still, referencing recent surveys in Arizona, Georgia and Texas that show Biden competitive or leading in those states, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said Friday that the former vice president would make a play for those traditionally red states.
“We believe that there will be battleground states that have never been battleground states before,” O’Malley Dillon said in a call with reporters. “We feel like the map is really favoring us if you look to recent polling.”
_____
Click here for the latest coronavirus news and updates. According to experts, people over 60 and those who are immunocompromised continue to be the most at risk. If you have questions, please refer to the CDC’s and WHO’s resource guides.

May 12, 2020, at 11:21 AM
[h=1]What To Make Of Those New Senate Polls That Have Democrats Way Ahead[/h]
By Nathaniel Rakich






Two recent Colorado polls gave former Gov. John Hickenlooper a double-digit lead over Sen. Cory Gardner. Salwan Georges / The Washington Post via Getty Images
Before you read any further, let’s get one thing straight: It’s still pretty early to trust general-election polls. In addition to the small but significant error inherent in polls taken six months before Election Day, the coronavirus pandemic has made the fall political environment extremely uncertain. But some recent Senate polls have been so eye-popping that we’re compelled to write about them — if only to sound a note of caution.
Those polls imply a Democratic wave of truly epic proportions. In the space of just two days last week, we got:

• Two polls of Colorado: A Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Melanson survey giving Democrat John Hickenlooper an 18-point lead over Republican Sen. Cory Gardner and a Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver poll giving Hickenlooper a nearly identical 17-point lead over Gardner.
• A Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver poll of Montana giving Democrat Steve Bullock a 7-point lead over Republican Sen. Steve Daines.
• And a Civiqs/Daily Kos survey giving Democrat Cal Cunningham a 9-point lead over Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina.

To put it mildly, these polls were out of step with our previous perceptions of these races. Election handicappers believe Colorado is a toss-up or perhaps tilts a bit toward Democrats. And although Bullock’s entry into the race was expected to make Montana competitive, handicappers still think it favors Republicans. Likewise, the North Carolina Senate race is universally seen as a toss-up, not a healthy Democratic lead.
So it’s fair to wonder how accurate these polls are. Individually, there’s something to nitpick about all four of them. None of the pollsters has a robust enough track record for us to confidently assign them a precise pollster rating. Plus, all four polls were conducted online, and according to Nate Cohn of The New York Times’s The Upshot, online polls of states, especially small ones like Montana, are a largely unproven medium. Finally, Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Melanson and Civiqs are both Democratic pollsters, and partisan polls have a tendency to show optimistic results for their side.
Whenever an attention-grabbing poll is released, we always counsel readers to look at them in the context of other recent surveys. However, a lack of high-quality, nonpartisan polling makes that tricky in these races. In North Carolina, two other polls conducted within the past month actually agreed that Cunningham led by the high single digits — but one was an unweighted online poll, and the other was from a Democratic pollster. More reliable may be a SurveyUSA poll showing Cunningham and Tillis within the margin of error, but that’s just one poll vs. three others now that disagree.
We’re flying even blinder in Montana, where the only other confirmed poll was sponsored by a liberal group that has endorsed Bullock and showed a tied race. And in Colorado, these were the first two surveys we’ve seen since last October — although the fact that they agreed makes their findings more credible than either poll would have been on its own.
In the face of such a pickle, let’s turn to the much more robust universe of congressional generic ballot polling. At the same time these Senate polls were coming out, we also got a poll from highly-rated Monmouth University that gave Democrats a 10-point lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot. Even the average generic-ballot poll gives Democrats an 8-point lead. These polls obviously point toward a strongly Democratic national environment, but not the kind of blue tsunami that would lead to an 18-point Democratic lead in the purple state of Colorado or a 7-point Democratic lead in the red state of Montana. That said, as popular former or sitting governors, Hickenlooper and Bullock are very strong candidates, so that could be making up the difference, although even that is a reach.
Ultimately, it’s hard to know at this point if these polls are outliers or early indicators of an overwhelming Democratic electoral environment. But the fact that they are even remotely plausible reflects a vulnerability for the GOP in the age of the coronavirus. Americans are souring on President Trump’s handling of the crisis, and congressional Republicans are reportedly worried that it will drag them down too. The pandemic has also devastated the economy, which has historically been bad news electorally for the party in the White House. In the worst-case scenario, the outbreak could lead to a Democratic wave à la 2008, when an unpopular Republican president and a tanking economy helped elect President Barack Obama and gave Democrats full control of the federal government.
Or not. As we said at the beginning, there is still plenty of time for the political environment to change. The health and economic situation could improve by the fall (or it could worsen). Another hot-button political issue could intervene. Or these polls could have missed the mark — it’s still six months out, after all. In the end, all these polls do is tell us something we should have already known: A second consecutive Democratic wave election is on the table. But it’s not dinner time yet.

How'd these stupid libtard sources do for you predicting the 2016 election?

Dumb ass.


3 weeks before the 2016 election.

How'd that work out for you maggot?

festeringZit said:

How'd these stupid libtard sources do for you predicting the 2016 election?

Dumb ass.



3 weeks before the 2016 election.

How'd that work out for you maggot?

Presidential Forecast

Tuesday, October 18, 2016 ​ Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance to win → 91% Hillary Clinton 9% Donald J. Trump

Good morning on this, the 21st day before Election Day. Hillary Clinton’s chances reached 91 percent last night — their highest point yet in this election cycle. The latest rise comes from gains in Arizona and Georgia, as well as hints of further weakness in typically safe red states like Alaska and Utah.​ From the beginning, Donald J. Trump faced a challenging electoral map, and his campaign has not improved his chances. At this point, even a large polling miss would not be enough for Mr. Trump to win — it will take a sudden and striking change in the fundamentals of the presidential race. As a rule of thumb, we should expect Election Day polling averages to miss by as much as 3 to 4 points: Mrs. Clinton’s current lead in the national popular vote is around 6 to 7 points and growing.​ With early voting already underway in several states, Mr. Trump’s next (and perhaps last) opportunity to alter the dynamics of the race will come with the third and final presidential debate tomorrow night.​ — Josh Katz​ Here are the latest national polls from the past week:​ Polls Dates Clinton Trump Johnson Monmouth University 10/14 - 10/16 50 38 5 Rasmussen 10/13 - 10/16 43 41 5 CBS News 10/12 - 10/16 47 38 8 UPI/CVoter 10/10 - 10/16 50 46 — Politico/Morning Consult 10/13 - 10/15 42 36 10 ABC News/Washington Post 10/10 - 10/13 47 43 5 NBC News/Wall Street Journal 10/10 - 10/13 48 37 7 GWU/Battleground 10/8 - 10/13 47 39 7 Rasmussen 10/10 - 10/12 41 43 6 Fox News 10/10 - 10/12 45 38 7 Insights West 10/10 - 10/11 42 37 6

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First of all, most polls tightened when well after the above, appx 10 days before the election, Comey released his report on HRC. After that, the consensus was, she would win by 3%. She ended up winning by TWO points. You know what that difference is? It's called the "margin of error," you stupid cocksucker, and, it's usually 3 or 4 points. The leads that Biden is showing in most polls now are OUTSIDE the margin of error, although, you're so fucking stupid, you probably can't figure out what that means. You're also crowing about something that, previously, had happened only 4 times in about 236 years of POTUS elections, namely, a candidate won the popular vote but did not win the electoral vote (which has outlived its usefulness). When something happens, on average, once every 60 years or so, it's obviously a fluke, yet, YOU act like he won with some sort of mandate or something, which, again, makes you a fucking moron. But, fear not, that blubbery, orange skinned, ferret wearing, daughter diddling, 19 time sexual assault accused, welching, 4 time bankrupt, phony university, draft dodging, tax dodging, scumbag is gonna get FUCKED with a cock an elephant could feel come this November-that is, if he doesn't poison himself first, and, I'll be here to ram it up YOUR ass along with a couple dozen of other morons who are trying to justify the actions of a guy with an impeachment, the highest unemployment since you-know-when, and, soon to be, over 100,000 deaths on his resume, and more infected people than the next 4 nations COMBINED, all because of his "outstanding" leadershiip. Now, go fuck your daughter the way HE does, you motherless ****.^^Slapping-silly90)):hammeritkth)(&^Loser!@#0azzkick(&^:madasshol:bigfinger:trx-smly0:fckmad::Countdown

I totally agree Trump should be blamed for the high unemployment. He should have campaigned better for Republican governor candidates to defeat asshole liberal job killing Demoscum like SisholeLack of Nevada.

From August 10, 2017: Steve Kornacki looks at Hillary Clinton's double digit lead against Donald Trump in four consecutive national polls, and trends developing in state polls, as evidence of a potential for a landslide outcome to the 2016 presidential election.

From Nov 1, 2016: Moody's Analytics has called the presidential election accurately since 1980. This election season, Moody's says Clinton will win by a landslide.

From November 2, 2016:

Hitler explains why Hillary Clinton will win the election

How Biden wallops Trump

Rick Newman Senior Columnist

Yahoo FinanceMay 20, 2020

First, the disclaimer: Forecasts can be wrong, as everybody learned from Donald Trump’s startling win in the 2016 president election. No prediction is bulletproof.
Now, the shocker: Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden might not just beat Trump in November, but wallop him. The election model run by forecasting firm Oxford Economics now sees Biden beating Trump by historic margins, due to an economy deeply damaged by the coronavirus recession. Before the recession, the model showed Trump winning in a close race.
Widespread business shutdowns meant to stop the spread of the coronavirus have caused the loss of 37 million jobs since the end of March – the biggest drop in employment since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Some of those layoffs are temporary, but the unemployment rate, now 14.7%, will still probably be around 10% on Election Day. That’s three times higher than it was before the virus, and comparable to the worst period of the last recession, which began in 2007. Simply put, many Americans will be worse off on Election Day than they were a year before, some of them feeling desperate.
The key variable in the Oxford model is a sharp economic contraction in swing states that fuels dissatisfaction with Trump and his fellow Republicans, and bolsters Democratic turnout. In the model, Biden, the former vice president, wins all the usual Democratic states plus seven states Trump won in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The outcome would give Biden 65% of the popular vote, and Trump just 35%. Biden would win the electoral vote 328 – 210, the worst womping of an incumbent president since Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, 48% to 46%, but swing state victories gave him a 306-232 electoral college win. The Oxford model predicted Hillary Clinton’s popular vote win, but not Trump’s electoral college margin. In 18 presidential elections dating to 1948, the Oxford model got the popular vote winner wrong only twice, in 1968 and 1976.
Before the virus arrived, Oxford forecast Trump winning reelection with a 55% popular-vote margin. The reeling economy and Trump’s halting response to the crisis have obviously helped Biden. Polls show Biden with a 4 to 5 point lead over Trump nationally. Biden also leads in most of the swing states likely to determine the winner in November. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics recently told Yahoo Finance his firm’s election forecasting tool also switched from Trump to Biden recently, though details aren’t publicly available yet.

View photos
Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks about the coronavirus Thursday, March 12, 2020, in Wilmington, Del. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Turnout is crucial in elections, and depressed Democrat turnout—because of the coronavirus, lack of enthusiasm for Biden or some other reason—would help Trump. High Democratic turnout, on the other hand, could generate an ever more decisive Biden win. In the Oxford model, if Democrat turnout is as strong as it was in 2008, when voters sent Barack Obama to the White House, Biden would win Florida, Texas and other traditionally red states, for a 434 – 104 electoral college stampede. A decisive Biden win would probably also mean Democrats retake control of the Senate, for complete control of the federal government.
Trump seems to know he’s in trouble, one reason he’s pressing hard for states to reopen quickly, even if it means more coronavirus infections and deaths. But there’s little he can do at this point to prevent the economy on Election Day from being far worse than it was a year before. Trump’s best bet may be convincing voters the virus is an external enemy and he’ll be a better rebuilder than Biden. Yes, yes, yes—it’s possible Trump could pull it off, regardless of what the experts say.

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: November increasingly looks better for Biden than Trump




Greg Dworkin for Daily Kos
Community

Wednesday May 20, 2020 · 4:30 AM PDT





























At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 3, with a volatile electorate. This year, things look more stable, with Joe Biden maintaining his lead nationally and state by state. This is not a surprise, as the states and national polls correlate (pro tip: stop dismissing national polls!), though small leads are no guarantee of victory.
Geoffrey Skelley/FiveThirtyEight:
Ok, Boomer. Really, ok.

Here’s your state polling roundup for those who can’t bring themselves to look at national polls.




Those who argued that Joe Biden was a “safer” bet in November—meaning that disaffected indies and older moderate Democrats were more comfortable with him—appear to have been correct, at least until now (of course, there’s always questions about individual polls, but the trend is clear).
A legitimate counterpoint argument is that, well, thanks to the pandemic and economic depression, anyone can beat Trump. That’s not how it looked a few months ago, and not one I agree with as Trump still has a narrow path to victory. However, it’s an argument I don’t mind listening to because of its implications.

Biden’s lead is super stable, too.
USA Today:

roadreeler57 said:

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Wtf does THAT have to do with anything???? She's NOT governor, having lost narrowly to a corrupt cocksucker who was Secretary of State while running for governor and jettisoned thousand of votes under his control (and just got caught doctoring the COVID 19 numbers for his state as he stupidly re-opened too quickly-even TWITTLER critizized him for that-and, she hasn't been asked to run. You really ARE a fucking moron, aren't you?

Dafinch said:

now sees Biden beating Trump by historic margins, due to an economy deeply damaged by the coronavirus recession.

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I am no political pundit but I find it very hard to believe even a single Trump voter looks at the impact of Covid on the economy and says "fuckin Trump, ruined the economy, ya know what will solve it? Joe Biden!"

Refuse to believe that's even remotely possible.

Dafinch said:

Wtf does THAT have to do with anything???? She's NOT governor, having lost narrowly to a corrupt cocksucker who was Secretary of State while running for governor and jettisoned thousand of votes under his control (and just got caught doctoring the COVID 19 numbers for his state as he stupidly re-opened too quickly-even TWITTLER critizized him for that-and, she hasn't been asked to run. You really ARE a fucking moron, aren't you?

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She thinks shes the Governor....

roadreeler57 said:

She thinks shes the Governor....

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And, you know this HOW, exactly? See the final sentence of my previous post, schmuck.

HarryCaray said:

I am no political pundit but I find it very hard to believe even a single Trump voter looks at the impact of Covid on the economy and says "fuckin Trump, ruined the economy, ya know what will solve it? Joe Biden!"

Refuse to believe that's even remotely possible.

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People dying, and business owners dropping like flies, believe what you WANT to believe, you're in for a rude awakening.