Sunday Service Play Thread 05/31/2020

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Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=306&p=13144912&viewfull=1#post13144912

Steve Merril

May 31 '20, 3:35 PM in 6h
NASCAR | Alex Bowman vs Jimmie Johnson
Play on: Jimmie Johnson +115 at Mirage

Jimmie Johnson is running his final full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series. Johnson has not won for several seasons, but he has been extremely strong this year on Team Hendrick with great speed along with his teammates Chase Elliott, William Byron and Alex Bowman. Bristol is a short track which takes experience and expertise and Johnson has run well here during his Hall of Fame career. Johnson has a sold 10.3 average finish with 3 Top 10's in his past four races at Bristol. Overall, he has 2 wins, 12 Top 5's and 21 Top 10 finishes in his 36 career Cup races on this track.

Teammate Alex Bowman has been one of the fastest cars all season on the super speedways, but Bristol is a 1/2-mile short track which requires a completely different setup. Bowman has struggled at Bristol during his career with an average finish of just 20.9 and only 2 Top 10 finishes in his 8 career Cup starts on this track.

Play JIMMIE JOHNSON (+) (vs. Alex Bowman)

Released on May 31 at 05:50 am

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/31

Sun May 31, 2020 7:58 am
Yesterday was a nice one. UFC was another winning night and Laura's Light wins the 7th at Santa Anita and we hit a $107.60 exacta at Churchill Downs. Here's three Races for today.

Churchill Downs Race 1
#4 Diamond Crazy $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 4-5-1

Churchill Downs Race 7
#9 Reelfoot $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-6-8

Santa Anita Race 6
#6 Sweet and Cheeky $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-9-3

Dustin Hawkins

May 31 '20, 3:35 PM in 3h
NASCAR | Matt Kenseth vs Ryan Newman
Play on: Ryan Newman +125 at 5Dimes

1 Dimer on Ryan Newman +125

Cappers Access

Nascar (Sun) 3/1 Kyle Busch

Mike McClure

NASCAR

Bets I made this week as of 11:30 PM EST 5/29

Kyle Busch +400
Joey Logano +800
Brad Keselowski +1300
Kurt Busch +2000

H2H Bets

Martin Truex +100 vs. Ryan Blaney
Kevin Harvick +105 vs. Denny Hamlin
Jimmie Johnson +120 vs. Erik Jones
Aric Almirola +115 vs. Matt DiBenedetto

The projected top 10, according to the model: (William Hill odds updated 5/30)

1. Kyle Busch (7-2)
2. Joey Logano (8-1)
3. Chase Elliott (5-1)
4. Brad Keselowski (10-1)
5. Kevin Harvick (17-2)
6. Denny Hamlin (7-1)
7. Martin Truex Jr. (12-1)
8. Alex Bowman (20-1)
9. Ryan Blaney (10-1)
10. Kurt Busch (20-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11. Clint Bowyer
12. Jimmie Johnson
13. Erik Jones
14. William Byron
15. Ryan Newman
16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
17. Tyler Reddick
18. Matt DiBenedetto
19. Aric Almirola
20. Cole Custer
21. Matt Kenseth
22. Austin Dillon
23. Chris Buescher
24. John Hunter Nemechek
25. Christopher Bell
26. Ty Dillon
27. Daniel Suarez
28. Bubba Wallace
29. Ryan Preece
30. Michael McDowell
31. Corey LaJoie
32. J.J. Yeley
33. Brennan Poole
34. Quin Houff
35. Timmy Hill
36. B.J. McLeod
37. Garrett Smithley
38. Joey Gase
39. Gray Gaulding

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

1 #9 Chase Elliott (9-1) -- I would have preferred that he didn't win Thursday night at Charlotte just so he remained hungry, but I have a feeling that being the best almost every week will keep him well-prepared for Bristol. At Phoenix in March, he led six times for a race-high 93 laps before finishing seventh. No wins at Bristol yet in eight Cup Series races, but his 11th-place average finish is the best among active drivers, and he has led laps in his last three starts there.

2 #4 Kevin Harvick (8-1) -- He's started eight races and has eight top-10 finishes. No one else has more than five top-10s. His cars have been great with all three race packages. He was runner-up at Phoenix, leading four times for 67 laps. At Bristol, he's a two-time winner, with the last victory coming in 2016.

3 #2 Brad Keselowski (13-1) -- He led four times for 82 laps at Phoenix in his first run with this week's race package. He looked to have one of the best cars but finished 11th after winning the second stage. He's a two-time Bristol winner and finished third there last fall.

4 #42 Matt Kenseth (28-1) -- The only knock on him here is that he may be a little rusty, but his record is one of the best. His 15 top-five finishes are the best among active drivers and his four wins are third-most. And his 1,583 laps led are second to Kyle Busch. He was fourth in his last two starts at Bristol during the 2017 season. Kyle Larson drove the No. 42 to fourth place at Phoenix.

5 #18 Kyle Busch (4-1) -- He's on the brink of being the all-time best at Bristol as he goes for his ninth Cup Series win to tie Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace and Cale Yarborough for second behind Darrell Waltrip (12). His 2,333 laps led are most among active drivers. He was third at Phoenix with this race package in March but didn't lead any laps.

6 #24 William Byron (30-1) -- He was 10th at Phoenix in March using this week's race package and 16th last spring, his best Cup Series finish. I'm looking at him to be fast on Sunday, and for what it's worth, he won the Bristol eNASCAR race last month.

7 #11 Denny Hamlin (8-1) -- He had top-five finishes in both Bristol races last season, including a win from the pole in the fall after leading 79 laps. He also won there in 2012. The team struggled at Phoenix with its race package, finishing 20th.

8 #1 Kurt Busch (14-1) -- He's a six-time winner at Bristol and looked very fast with this race package at Phoenix, where he finished sixth while his teammate in the No. 42 car was fourth. In 38 Cup Series starts at Bristol, he has 20 top-10s and led 1,095 laps.

9 #20 Erik Jones (22-1) -- Bristol is a great track for him as he's posted top-fives in two of his six Cup Series starts. As a rookie in 2017, he started from the pole and led 260 laps before finishing second. He's won twice at Bristol in the Xfinity Series.

10 #14 Clint Bowyer (22-1) -- He might offer one of the best values on the board, even though he's never won at Bristol, just because of his team and his performance at Phoenix, where he finished fifth. He's been eighth or better in his last four Bristol starts and has posted seven top-fives there over his career.

11 #12 Ryan Blaney (16-1) -- He had some bad luck at Phoenix with this race package, but since joining Team Penske, he's been one of the best at Bristol, leading 100 or more laps in three of the last four races there. Expect him to get out front and lead some laps again. He has won there in both the Truck and Xfinity Series.

12 #22 Joey Logano (13-2) -- He led three times for 60 laps at Phoenix, including the last 23 after he made the final winning pass against teammate Keselowski. He's won at Bristol two times in the Cup Series and twice in the Xfinity Series.

13 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (40-1) -- His past performances at Bristol make up more for his rating than his 22nd-place finish at Phoenix. He drives Bristol well, as it's his second-best track on the Cup Series despite finishing 24th or worse in his last three starts there. He has four top-fives in 14 starts and carries momentum from a fourth-place Thursday night at Charlotte while using the 550-horsepower race package. He's worth a $5 wager in his first shot at it driving with his new team.

14 #88 Alex Bowman (16-1) -- He was 15th and 23rd at Bristol last season, and his career best is fifth in 2018. His style of racing is best on the cookie-cutter ovals. He finished 14th at Phoenix while using this week's race package.

15 #21 Matt DiBenedetto (40-1) -- He was 13th at Phoenix, but what may be more important is how well he ran with a similar race package last season at Bristol, where he led 93 laps before finishing second. He handled the track well.

16 #10 Aric Almirola (30-1) -- He was eighth at Phoenix, one of four Stewart-Haas Racing drivers to finish ninth or better. SHR may have the early edge with this package. His best Bristol finish was third in 2014.

17 #48 Jimmie Johnson (20-1) -- He's a two-time Bristol winner, and his 13th-place average finish is second-best among active drivers. He was 12th at Phoenix while using this week's race package.

18 #41 Cole Custer (80-1) -- He should be a good bet in driver matchups, just because it looked like Stewart-Haas Racing may have had the best group of cars at Phoenix, as all four finished ninth or better.

19 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (8-1) -- Bristol just hasn't been his deal, as he has a 20th-place average finish and no top-fives in his last 15 starts there. To go with the rough past history, we also have to factor in his 32nd-place at Phoenix with this package, as well as the fact he still doesn't have a win while getting used to a new crew chief.

20 #3 Austin Dillon (100/1) - He finished 36th at Phoenix and his rookie teammate in the No. 8 car was 33rd, which may show some signs that Richard Childress Racing might not be very good with this race package. But he does have an Xfinity Series win at Bristol in 2016 and his career-best fourth-place came in the Cup Series, also in 2016.