Strength of Schedule

powerz · May 25, 2020

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nfl/proper-way-to-calculate-strength-of-schedule/

Good chart showing the flow of SOS through the Offseason...but at the end of the day their is a half game difference between the easiest and hardest schedule.

The largest dichotomy in a division I can find is Houston has the 6th hardest and Tenn and Indy have the easiest and 2nd easiest. The difference their 2 random games

The AFC SOUTH - gets the AFC north and NFC north, so the random games for....

HOUSTON - Chiefs and Patriots

TENN - @Denver and Buff

INDY - Jets and @Raiders

Edge Indy

powerz · May 25, 2020

Also some schedule notes for 2020

NE from week 8 to 15 NE plays 6 of 8 OTR
NYJ - Brutal start 4 straight potential PO teams & then 3 out of 4 OTR to end the season

Balt - Week 10 through 15 4 prime time games and 4 games in 18 days
Clev - 4 out of 6 to end the season OTR and the 2 homes games are BALT and PITT

Hous- Brutal start 6 out 7 games VS PO teams
TENN - 2 home games last 7 weeks...although they were road warriors at the end of last season

WASH -finish the season 4 our of 6 OTR and against 5 potential PO teams

Saints - Finish 4 out of 6 OTR & the 2 home games are KCC and MINNY

powerz · May 25, 2020

2019 Schedule ATS spots

Sept - Teams off TNF 5-1 next game, Teams on 2nd game of B2B Roadie were 7-1 & if a team was in an Adverse travel spot 13-5.......Thoughts teams are still fresh, not many injuries

OCT - Teams off extra rest of TNF 5-2, Teams off a bye were 4-9, Teams in adverse travel spots were 9-3,

NOV - Teams with extra rest of TNF 2-5, 2nd week of B2b 5-7

DEC - Teams facing an opponent coming off their bye 3-1

powerz · May 25, 2020

I also found this interesting looking back at tough schedule situations, keep in mind the theory would be the bookmaker may shade a line by a half or full poit for a tough spot like a B2B game

	ATS	W%	Situations
Playoff teams	106	78	57.6%	63	37	63.0%
Middle under achiever	67	85	44.1%	33	49	40.2%
Project to be Bad team	72	89	44.7%	41	44	48.2%

Play off teams are 57.6% ATS but in a tough schedule spot rise up to 63%

Where as a middling under achieving teams only won 45% of their games but when faced with some adversity in their schedule they drop to 40%

Projected to be a bad team at the beginning of the season yup only cover 45% of the time but they do handle schedule adversity better than middle of the pack teams.

Wins2day · May 26, 2020

Great stuff powerz !! Tennessee should be productive with that schedule.

brendanjack · May 27, 2020

Good read powerz looking forward to pretty much anything sports right now been working like a rented mule since March. Hoping to sign up for west gate shortly after 4th July. Have a great summer looking forward to Sunday’s in the fall . We must be in purgatory right now praying for football

MR.HARRYtheHAT · May 28, 2020

How many games will the Dallas Cowboys win in 2020? With Future Odds!!!!

My best bet is 9-12 Wins, which is unsurprisingly the favorite. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to put a small wager on 13-16 (+1100) and a bigger one on 9-12 wins, though.The Cowboys have a great chance to win more than 10 games with an easier schedule in the NFC East, but games against the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks won’t be easy outs.

BigLouReturns · May 28, 2020

Good luck to you on the upcoming season Mike.w-thumbs!^

powerz · May 30, 2020

Wins2day said:
Great stuff powerz !! Tennessee should be productive with that schedule.

Hi Ya Wins - Tough back half of schedule for Tenn

What do you think about the hockey PO's

brendanjack said:
Good read powerz looking forward to pretty much anything sports right now been working like a rented mule since March. Hoping to sign up for west gate shortly after 4th July. Have a great summer looking forward to Sunday’s in the fall . We must be in purgatory right now praying for football

I hear ya brendan - Funny enough I just had my best Sales Month ever I wrote 25% new business

I am trying to figure out how I can get into the contest, I was talking with Sharky about it this week.

Whats your thought on the hockey PO's

powerz · May 30, 2020

MR.HARRYtheHAT said:
My best bet is 9-12 Wins, which is unsurprisingly the favorite. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to put a small wager on 13-16 (+1100) and a bigger one on 9-12 wins, though.The Cowboys have a great chance to win more than 10 games with an easier schedule in the NFC East, but games against the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks won’t be easy outs.

Hi Harry - I couldn't figure out what your were talking about until I saw your Subject line. LOL

I definitely like what the Cowboys have done in the off season, but I like to fade teams with coaching changes in weeks one and two and then their schedule after the bye is tough...

@minny, Wash on thanksgiving (4 days rest) should be a win, @baltimore in prime time @cinncy (trap game off Balt before SF at home) SF at home Philly at home and then @nyg might only be 4-5 wins there

Gl these season

powerz · May 30, 2020

Big Lou Returns said:
Good luck to you on the upcoming season Mike.w-thumbs!^

You too Lou!

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