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As times are slow due to the Global Pandemic many handicappers are focusing their efforts into future sporting events. The one sport that still has a chance to possibly get off on schedule is none other than our favorite, Football. Feel free to post future NFL and NCAA selection in this thread. Be well and stay safe.
 

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Recommendation .... I posted some early NFL picks a weeks ago and maybe someone could start a new thread

Early NFL picks

it would be a great spot to post early nfl week 1 picks and season win totals... I currently have a subscription to HITMAN on Pg and have several picks I could post....

Good idea Yanks. Fire way with any plays. Good luck to All. And let's count on the NFL and NCAA foots to get off on time.

Cheers!
 

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Pg... Hitman

2020 NFL Season Win Totals For season win totals, I will be posting lines that are available at a minimum of two major sportsbooks.




3/24: 3* Jags UNDER 5.5 Wins -125 (BOL/5D... like this as a 3* play at U5 as well!)


My win projection for the Jags this season is 4.05


3/24: 2* LA Rams U9 Wins -125 (BOL/5D)


My win projection for the Rams this season is 8.32


3/24: 2* Carolina Panthers U5.5 Wins -110 (5D)


My win projection for the Panthers this season is 4.88


4/29: 2* Chicago Bears U8.5 Wins -135 (BOL)


My win projection for the Bears this season is 7.6


5/8: 2* New York Jets U7 Wins -120 (5D)


My win projection for the Jets this season is 5.76


 

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HITMAN | NFL SIDESUN, 09/13/20 - 8:20 PM
  1. 478 LOS 3.0 (-110) Southpoint vs 477 DAL
  1. double-dime bet
Analysis:
The public perception and love a–ffair with the Cowboys gives us clear value on the Rams as a 3 point home dog. I make the game Dallas -0.5.


The Rams are one of the teams least affected by the fact that this game will likely not have fans. Dallas will still have to travel, which gives the Rams around a 1.5 HFA.


Dallas will be playing their first game with a new HC, who has a limited time to implement his offense in a shortened offseason.


Matchup wise, the book is out on the Rams. They are a bet on team when Jared Goff's pocket is clean, and a bet against when he's under pressure. He is also a significantly better quarterback at home. Dallas was around league average in pressure rate last season, and projects to be around the same this season.
 

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HITMAN | NFL SIDESUN, 09/13/20 - 1:00 PM
  1. 469 GBP 3.5 (-110) Bookmaker vs 470 MIN
  1. double-dime bet
Analysis:
I make this game Vikings -3.5... ASSUMING that we have a full capacity crowd. With the game likely having no or a limited crowd, the Vikings HFA takes a significant hit. I make this game Vikings -2.5, giving us value going through the key number of 3.


I am not a big trends guy, but one trend I think is applicable is divisional dogs in week 1. Teams ty–pically aren't hitting at full stride yet early in the season, and it keeps these games between familiar opponents super close. Divisional dogs since 2014 are 21-5-1 ATS, including 4-1 last season.


I think eventually the friction between Rodgers and the Packers front office hurts this Packers team negatively, but I suspect we see a super motivated Rodgers for his first game since the Packers essentially signaled to Rodgers that they are planning on life without him in 2-3 years. Plus, the Vikings will be breaking in a completely new cornerback group with very little experience.


Pick Made: May 8 2020 3:52PM PST
 

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How do u change the color of what I post to black? Haven’t figured it out and sick of seeing green
 

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HITMAN | NFL TOTALSUN, 09/13/20 - 4:05 PM
  1. 472 CIN / 471 LAC Under 45.5 Southpoint
  1. double-dime bet
Analysis:
The Chargers are my– favorite under the radar "under" team this season. Last year, Chargers games average only 38.5 PPG despite many games where opposing offenses started in great field position due to turnovers committed by the Chargers offense.


Last season, the Chargers were better then their record, but committing the 4th most turnovers in the NFL led to the Chargers going 5-11 despite having a Pythagorean win total of 7.8. Now the Chargers go from one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks in the NFL in Phillip Rivers to one of the most conservative quarterbacks in the NFL in Tyrod Taylor. Ultimately I believe this leads to the Chargers being run heavier and relying on their defense more this season, which on paper projects as a top five defense this season.


The Bengals theoretically improved on both sides of the ball this season, but I expect the offense to take more time to gel due to the Bengals starting a rookie quarterback that has a shortened offseason to get prepared.






LINE NOTE 5/17: You can get 46.5 in NJ (DK), 46 at WHill, 45.5 at multiple Vegas shops and 44.5 is the most common number offshore. I tried to split the difference by listing this game at 45.5. Regardless, I like this under at 44 or better.


 

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Bump thread

Warren sharp
1.5 units over 50 Dallas
1 u it GB +3.5

FYI ,, I will be listing sharp and hit man for nfl
 

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HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 13 2020 8:20PM
477 DAL / 478 LOS OVER 50.5 William Hilldouble-dime bet

Analysis: [FONT=&quot]FYI, O50.5 is available at Caesars, WHill, and MGM. Perfectly fine at 51 as I like this up to 52.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Two teams I am selectively looking to play overs on this season.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]One thing I have preached this offseason is looking to bet on teams that have continuity going into the offseason. The Rams and Cowboys are a matchup of two teams who keep the same offensive play caller (McVay and Moore), but lost their defensive play callers. Both of the former coordinators (Marinelli, and especially Wade Phillips) are noteworthy losses for their teams. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The Rams are projected to have one of the highest pass rates in the NF, and Jared Goff has had a significantly better YPA at home over the past two seasons. He also has a 31 to 11 TD/INT ratio at home in those seasons, while having a 22 to 17 TD/INT ratio on the road. Dallas' secondary is looking like the weakness of their team this season. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The Cowboys offense looks like it has improved in the offseason, which is a crazy thought considering that the team was 1st in YPP last season. The Cowboys return all of their starters except stud center Travis Frederick, but they removed possession pass catchers Randall Cobb and Jason Witten from their offense, and now replace those targets with the more explosive Ceedee Lamb and Blake Jarwin. The Rams lost OLB Dante Fowler, OLB Clay Matthews, MLB Cory Littleton, CB Nickell- Robey Coleman, and S Eric Weddle in the offseason, and rank 28th in defensive continuity coming into this season. [/FONT]
 

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Somebody has Teddy Covers Season total Wins Report ?Game: (459) Las Vegas Raiders at (460) Carolina PanthersDate/Time: Sep 13 2020 1:00 PM EDTBetting Line Provider: Consensus LinePlay Rating: 5%Play: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (-110)View Analysis 5% Big Ticket: Take Las Vegas (#459)This is the wrong offseason for any new coaching staff. When it’s a situation like Carolina’s, with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator and new quarterback, we can only expect the transition to be a lengthy process. Matt Rhule has engineered two impressive rebuilding projects at the college level, turning around the programs at Temple and Baylor. Rhule’s record in his first year at Temple was 2-10. His first year at Baylor, the Bears went 1-11. Make no mistake about it: this is going to be a lengthy process for Carolina, not an immediate turnaround. This Panthers team cannot be expected to win Week 1 against a veteran Raiders squad with much more continuity – returning their head coach, both coordinators and their QB – as well as a big chip on their collective shoulders off last year’s debacle. Look for Vegas to open the season with a SU road win – the negative impact of West Coast teams travelling east for early start games is largely mitigated for Week 1 games. Big Ticket: Take the Raiders.Line Parameter: 5% at -2.5 or lower, 4% at -3 or higherGame: (475) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (476) New Orleans SaintsDate/Time: Sep 13 2020 4:25 PM EDTBetting Line Provider: Consensus LinePlay Rating: 3%Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 (-110)3% Take Tampa Bay (#475)The Saints have truly been an elite team throughout the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era, and they’ve been priced like it in the betting markets. But Sean Payton is not a fast starter, and his Saints team has been an ATS nightmare for their backers in early season play. How bad? How about 0-10 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 over the last five seasons. That’s a track record worth fading at every reasonable opportunity. Bruce Arians’ Bucs won outright in their first two tries as underdogs last year, and the addition of a hungry, motivated Tom Brady isn’t going to hurt. Expect a battle, not a blowout, with Tampa live to win this game in outright fashion. Bet this now: based on early line movement, the +4’s may not survive through the summer months. Take the Bucs.Line Parameter: 3% at +4 or higher, 2% at +3.5 or lowerGame: (477) Dallas Cowboys at (478) Los Angeles RamsDate/Time: Sep 13 2020 8:20 PM EDTBetting Line Provider: Consensus LinePlay Rating: 4%Play: Los Angeles Rams 2.5 (-110)View Analysis 4% Take the LA Rams (#478)The betting markets have crashed on the LA Rams in the offseason, in reaction to their mediocre season in 2019, followed by a stream of veteran departures: Todd Gurley, Clay Matthews, Cory Littleton, Dante Fowler, Greg Zuerlein and Nickell Robey-Coleman, just to name a few. But make no mistake about it -- LA is not an afterthought in the NFC West. This team was an undervalued commodity all year last year, cashing at a 67% ATS clip for the full season. Their defensive line is as dominant as any in football; good news for new coordinator Brandon Staley, a Vic Fangio disciple. And despite Jared Goff’s mediocrity in 2019, the talent and coaching surrounding him is top notch. Dallas is breaking in a new coaching staff, bad news in this COVID-19 affected offseason, and Mike McCarthy is not a coach I trust to have them ready in Week 1 off an abbreviated offseason. This Cowboys team lost SU as road chalk at Philly, Chicago, the Jets and the Teddy Bridgewater led Saints last year; not a team to trust laying a full field goal in Week 1 this year. Bet this now: I don’t expect the +3’s to hold for the brand new Sofi Stadium opener. Take the Rams.Line Parameter: 4% at +2.5 or higher, 3% at +2 or lower
 

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Game: (459) Las Vegas Raiders at (460) Carolina PanthersDate/Time: Sep 13 2020 1:00 PM EDTBetting Line Provider: Consensus LinePlay Rating: 5%Play: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (-110)View Analysis 5% Big Ticket: Take Las Vegas (#459)This is the wrong offseason for any new coaching staff. When it’s a situation like Carolina’s, with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator and new quarterback, we can only expect the transition to be a lengthy process. Matt Rhule has engineered two impressive rebuilding projects at the college level, turning around the programs at Temple and Baylor. Rhule’s record in his first year at Temple was 2-10. His first year at Baylor, the Bears went 1-11. Make no mistake about it: this is going to be a lengthy process for Carolina, not an immediate turnaround. This Panthers team cannot be expected to win Week 1 against a veteran Raiders squad with much more continuity – returning their head coach, both coordinators and their QB – as well as a big chip on their collective shoulders off last year’s debacle. Look for Vegas to open the season with a SU road win – the negative impact of West Coast teams travelling east for early start games is largely mitigated for Week 1 games. Big Ticket: Take the Raiders.Line Parameter: 5% at -2.5 or lower, 4% at -3 or higher
 

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