Saturday Service Play Thread 06/06/2020

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Mike McClure

UFC 250

Top Picks

Amanda Nunes
Herbert Burns
Sean O'Malley

Kyle Marley

UFC 250

He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 15 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $20,000!

Marley has hit a WHOPPING eight consecutive UFC main-event picks, including five straight upsets! Last week at UFC Fight Night, he accurately predicted a dominant decision win for Gilbert Burns (+150) against Tyron Woodley (-170).


Amanda Nunes (-600) vs. Felicia Spencer (+450): Nunes via TKO

Aside from a submission, I don't see how Spencer wins. Nunes is the better fighter everywhere and she should dominate, especially on the feet. I doubt Nunes goes for takedowns, so if Spencer can't get any herself, I see her getting finished in round 1 or 2.

Cody Garbrandt (-145) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+125): Garbrandt via decision

Garbrandt is the better boxer and has a lot more power as well. Assuncao is the better grappler and the guy with higher fight IQ. Garbrandt is the better wrestler, so he should be able to keep this fight on the feet and, as long as he doesn't charge in with his chin up, I think he will get the win. Assuncao doesn't have big power, so I am not as worried about Garbrandt's chin. He should be landing more volume and has the better shot at a knockout.

Aljamain Sterling (-115) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-105): Sandhagen via stoppage

I love this fight. Sandhagen has a big edge on the feet and Sterling should have a decent edge on the ground. Sterling is going to look to be all the way out, or all the way in for this fight. He wants to work his kicks and his ground game, and Sandhagen should be trying to close the distance on the feet and stuffing takedowns. Sterling doesn't have great wrestling but Sandhagen doesn't have great takedown defense, so if Sterling wins this fight it will come through grappling. I like Sandhagen a lot more on the feet here though and he is dangerous on the ground himself, so I am going to lean with him as my pick here and the big difference will be his punches landing much more than Sterling's kicks.

Neil Magny (-145) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (+125): Martin by decision

Neil is going to be the longer fighter here with a 7-inch reach advantage, and if he uses it, I think that will help him a lot on the feet here. I think he should look to land a lot of jabs and front kicks to keep Martin on the outside, and with this likely being a slower paced fight, that could get him the win here. Martin should look to chop down Magny's legs with kicks and that could change how this fight goes. Either guy could have success with takedowns, but I see this mainly staying on the feet. If this was a pickem' fight, I would lean with Magny. However, I think this is dog or pass on the betting line, so I will go with Martin as my pick here.

Sean O'Malley (-440) vs. Eddie Wineland (+360): O'Malley via TKO

I think O'Malley is the better fighter everywhere and I think he can win by knockout, submission or decision. Wineland should look to turn this into a brawl and, if he can do that, a knockout is his chance at a win. I see O'Malley picking him apart and picking up a finish of his own in round 2 or 3.

Chase Hooper (-150) vs. Alex Caceres (+130): Hooper via submission

I favor Caceres on the feet but I like Hooper when the fight hits the mat. I don't see Hooper accepting a striking fight and I think he will look for takedowns. I see him locking up a submission at some point, but he isn't a good wrestler, so it could be a sweat until he gets it to the mat. Caceres doesn't really have one-shot power, and that is what I would worry more with against Hooper.

Ian Heinisch (-125) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+105): Meerschaert via decision

I think this is a close fight on the feet with the edge going to Heinisch, although Meerschaert has been looking better in the striking department. I like him on the mat in and I expect him to look for takedowns throughout. If he can get it to the mat, I think he can lock up a submission. But I think he can keep this fight close enough in the striking to where any ground action from him could steal a round or make it clearer for the judges.

Cody Stamann (-275) vs. Brian Kelleher (+235): Stamann via decision

I see this one being close on the feet, but Stamann having a big edge in the wrestling department. I think a guillotine from Kelleher is in play, but he needs that or a knockout to get the win. I think Stamann will be too much for him with the wrestling and he has the cardio to put up a high pace for 15 minutes.

Charles Byrd (-170) vs. Maki Pitolo (+150): Byrd via submission

I like Byrd here. I think he is the more powerful striker on the feet, but I like him more for his ground game in this one. I think he has a big wrestling edge and he could get a submission or ground-and-pound finish. On the feet, Pitolo is the better boxer and has power himself, but Byrd is solid there and I think he could win a striking match as well.

Alex Perez (-140) vs. Jussier Formiga (+120): Perez via decision

If Perez doesn't get submitted, he should win this fight. I like Perez a lot more in the striking department and he is the better wrestler as well. I don't see Formiga being able to land takedowns, so I think he needs to get Perez's back to have a chance. I doubt he can backpack him long enough to win on the scorecards, so I think he has to lock up a submission to have a chance and I don't see that happening.

Alonzo Menifield (-220) vs. Devin Clark (+190): Menifield via TKO

Clark is the better wrestler in this fight, but he is going to need to use it the entire time to get a win here. He needs takedowns every round or he needs to get a finish with GNP or a submission. I think Clark is in trouble on the feet if he can't get it to the mat and a KO from Menifield is the most likely outcome in my opinion. I think he is good enough to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet and I see him landing a big shot at some point and putting Clark away.

Herbert Burns (-240) vs. Evan Dunham (+200): Burns via submission

I used to be high on Dunham, but now he is 38 years old and hasn't looked good in four years. Burns had a big win in his UFC debut and his brother is coming off a huge win last weekend, so his confidence is probably riding high. I think this could be close on the feet, but I favor Burns there and I think he has a big edge on the ground.

Paul Leiner

UFC & Horse Picks 6/6

Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:58 am
Hit the 9th race exacta and it paid $36. Got two third places in the other races yesterday. Today I have two big races from Belmont and a UFC pick for tonight.

100* Alex Perez -140 over Jussier Formiga

Belmont Race 6
#8 Social Paranoia $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 8-6-5

Belmont Race 9
#2 Performer $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 2-11-10

Buzz Kill said:

Mike McClure

UFC 250

Top Picks

Amanda Nunes
Herbert Burns
Sean O'Malley

Click to expand...

Mike McClure

UFC 250

At UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns, McClure was all over Mackenzie Dern and Jamahal Hill as two of his top picks. The results: both fighters scored first-round stoppages, and anybody who followed McClure's advice was poised for a profitable day.

Top Picks

Amanda Nunes, Herbert Burns and Sean O'Malley

Fight Picks

Amanda Nunes (-600) vs. Felicia Spencer (+450): Nunes
Cody Garbrandt (-145) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+125): Garbrandt
Aljamain Sterling (-115) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-105): Sandhagen
Neil Magny (-145) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (+125): Martin
Sean O'Malley (-440) vs. Eddie Wineland (+360): O'Malley
Chase Hooper (-150) vs. Alex Caceres (+130): Hooper
Ian Heinisch (-125) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+105): Heinisch
Cody Stamann (-275) vs. Brian Kelleher (+235): Kelleher
Charles Byrd (-170) vs. Maki Pitolo (+150): Byrd
Alex Perez (-140) vs. Jussier Formiga (+120): Perez
Alonzo Menifield (-220) vs. Devin Clark (+190): Clark
Herbert Burns (-240) vs. Evan Dunham (+200): Burns
DraftKings Exposure across 20 lineups:

Amanda Nunes
Herbert Burns
Sean O'Malley
Devin Clark
Alex Perez
Chase Hooper
Anthony Rocco Martin
Cory Sandhagen
Charles Byrd
Gerald Meerschaert
FanDuel Picks

MVP Amanda Nunes - MVP
Sean O'Malley
Herbert Burns
Anthony Rocco Martin
Brian Kelleher
Devin Clark

MVP Amanda Nunes - MVP
Alex Perez
Herbert Burns
Chase Hooper
Anthony Rocco Martin
Devin Clark

Brandon Wise

A CBS Sports editor specializing in MMA, Wise has been dissecting the sport for five years. He specializes in picking main-card fights for UFC, which has enabled him to be profitable every year! Wise went a perfect 5-0 at UFC 239 and was 4-1 at both UFC 245 and UFC 249. He also nailed Khabib Nurmagomedov's destruction of Conor McGregor in 2018, Stipe Miocic's upset of Daniel Cormier, Max Holloway's downfall in 2019 and Justin Gaethje's TKO victory over Tony Ferguson in May.

Across UFC 247, UFC 248 and UFC 249, Wise went a whopping 11-4 with his main-card picks, returning healthy profits for anyone following them. He also called Gilbert Burns' big upset over Tyron Woodley, who was the -175 favorite, at UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns this past Saturday.


UFC 250

Amanda Nunes (-575) vs. Felicia Spencer (+425): Nunes by decision

In many ways, this fight feels like a trap for Nunes. She's only fought once in the UFC at the weight class and got in a firefight with Cris Cyborg that lasted less than one minute. The biggest question she'll have to answer is stamina, given the championship rounds being contested at a higher weight.

But make no mistake, she is the better fighter in this bout and should be able to cruise if she avoids getting taken to the ground by a submission specialist in Spencer. The only thing stopping Nunes winning this fight handily is Nunes.

Cody Garbrandt (-150) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+125): Assuncao by decision

This is a spot where the UFC is trying to elevate a former champion and get him some shine again. Garbrandt is on a three-fight losing streak after winning the bantamweight belt in 2016, and each loss has come by way of knockout. Should he avoid getting baited into a brawl like he has in his last three bouts and fight smart, this could become an interesting chess match.

But what he faces in Assuncao is a durable competitor who has been on the cusp of title contention for years. He may not possess the power to finish Garbrandt outright, but he has the better all-around game to get scorecards in his favor.

Aljamain Sterling (-125) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+105): Sandhagen by decision

This arguably is one of the best fights and style matchups available to make in the sport. Both guys bring an incredible and slick style in the stand-up that will make it hard to be hit. Sandhagen has modeled his game after former bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, and uses awkward angles and entry points to make life miserable for his opponents. His large size for the weight class at 5-11 can be a nightmare as well.

Sterling is on his own hot streak and has a case to be considered THE top contender for the championship with his incredible run, but this is as tough a matchup as he could get short of a title shot. Picking this fight to go to a draw seems like a good prop bet as well, but I think Sandhagen finds a way to eke one out.

Neil Magny (-150) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (+125): Magny by decision

This is another interesting style matchup. Magny is huge for the welterweight division at 6-3 and creates a lot of issues for his opponents with his length. Martin possesses a strong wrestling base, with nine of his 17 career wins coming by submission. If this fight gets to the ground, it's likely to end in a sub for one of the men. Magny should be able to keep this on the feet and grind out another decision.

Sean O'Malley (-440) vs. Eddie Wineland (+340): O'Malley by TKO

Another showcase opportunity for "Sugar" on Saturday night. One of the brightest rising stars in the sport with incredible knockout power, O'Malley is a huge favorite against the 35-year-old Wineland for a reason. O'Malley is undefeated with seven knockouts in his career, while Wineland has gone 3-2 since 2016, with all the wins coming by KO. Expect fireworks, but I foresee O'Malley getting the finish sooner rather than later.