Sunday Service Play Thread 06/07/2020

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SOUTH KOREA: KBO
Lotte Giants - KT Wiz Suwon
Under 10.5




SOUTH KOREA: KBO
Doosan Bears - KIA Tigers
Under 10.5

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=306&p=13152909&viewfull=1#post13152909

Mike McClure

NASCAR

The revamped NASCAR Cup Series schedule continues with the 2020 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. Our proven projection model has simulated this race 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and the Toyota 500 at Darlington. It also identified six top-10 drivers at the Alsco Uniforms 500 at Charlotte. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol.


1 Kevin Harvick 7-2
2 Chase Elliott 6-1
3 Brad Keselowski 13-2
4 Kyle Busch 13-2
5 Joey Logano 15-2
6 Martin Truex Jr 8-1
7 Denny Hamlin 12-1
8 Kurt Busch 20-1
9 Jimmie Johnson 18-1
10 Clint Bowyer 40-1

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Erik Jones
12 Ryan Blaney
13 Alex Bowman
14 William Byron
15 Tyler Reddick
16 Matt Kenseth
17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
18 Aric Almirola
19 Ryan Newman
20 Matt DiBenedetto
21 Christopher Bell
22 Austin Dillon
23 Bubba Wallace
24 Cole Custer
25 Daniel Suarez
26 Ryan Preece
27 Ty Dillon
28 John H. Nemechek
29 Chris Buescher
30 Michael McDowell
31 Corey Lajoie
32 Brennan Poole
33 JJ Yeley
34 Timmy Hill
35 Gray Gaulding
36 BJ McLeod
37 Quin Houff
38 Joey Gase
39 Garrett Smithley
40 Bayley Currey

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

his top pick won the first two races of the 2020 season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, he nailed Denny Hamlin's win at 10-1 odds, and he hit eventual winner Joey Logano at 13-2 odds in the Pennzoil 400 a week later. He also nailed Hamlin's victory in the Toyota 500 last month, even though he wasn't one of the top three favorites.

Roberts also crushed the 2019 NASCAR season. Those who wagered $100 on Roberts' predicted winner in each of the 40 NASCAR races last year (an investment of $4,000) finished with a strong profit of $2,100. In addition, those who put down $50 on each of Roberts' top four choices in each of those races (an investment of $8,000) were up a head-turning $3,400.


1 #9 Chase Elliott (6-1) -- It doesn't matter what race package he's using because, chances are, he's going to have a car capable of winning. He's been on a roll all season but only has one win to show for it - the last race at Charlotte using this week's package. In four Cup Series starts at Atlanta, he's averaged a 10th-place finish, which is tops among active drivers. Atlanta is his home track. This is a great spot for him to win.

2 #88 Alex Bowman (15-2) -- He's never had a finish better than 15th in four Cup Series races at Atlanta, but he's quickly becoming one of the best. Whenever he's on a cookie-cutter track like the ones at Atlanta, Charlotte or Fontana, he should be part of the betting mix to win.

3 #2 Brad Keselowski (13-2) -- He comes in with the momentum of winning two of the last three races on the schedule, and also taking the checkered flag in two of the last three at Atlanta. He didn't win in 2018 but was runner-up. That's about as good as it gets and the reason he should be in your odds-to-win wagering equation.

4 #12 Ryan Blaney (15-1) -- His best Atlanta finish was 12th place in 2018, and he led 41 laps before finishing 22nd last season. He's been up and down all season thus far, but he's had a car capable of winning in four of the six races using this package and finished third in both at Charlotte. Luck has to swing his way soon. I'm certain he'll have another fast car and the track isn't as tricky as Darlington's. Blaney could become the new cookie-cutter king.

5 #11 Denny Hamlin (12-1) -- His lone Atlanta win came in 2012, and he's had a couple of early exits here since then, but I like how his team is set with this week's race package, as he posted a win with it at Darlington and a fast-charging runner-up finish at Charlotte. He may be the best at saving his tires for long runs on sandpaper surfaces, and Atlanta's got a rough one.

6 #4 Kevin Harvick (7-2) -- He's a two-time winner, including his first Cup Series victory in 2001 just two weeks after taking over the No. 3 team. He leads all active drivers with 1,197 laps led, and probably should have at least four wins. He's led at least 101 laps in six of his last eight Atlanta starts and had the best car in four of those, but he only came away with one win (2018). He's got top-10s in all six races using this week's package, leading laps in four of them.

7 #18 Kyle Busch (13-2) -- He's a two-time winner at Atlanta, the last victory coming in 2013, and he finished sixth last season. The story with him in 2020 is no wins in the first nine races, although he does have five top-five finishes. A win is coming soon, but he won't be in my betting equation this week. I also won't be betting against him in driver matchups.

8 #1 Kurt Busch (20-1) -- Atlanta always has been one of his better tracks as he's recorded three wins and 802 laps led. His worst finish in his last 10 starts here was 13th, where he came in twice. He finished third in this race last season. He's also been third in races at Fontana and Darlington using this week's package.

9 #20 Erik Jones (30-1) -- He had a career-best seventh-place at Atlanta last season and has a 10.6 average finish in three Cup Series starts here. For a young driver, he's proved to be one of the best at saving tires on abrasive surfaces.

10 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (8-1) -- He's the king of the ovals now that Jimmie Johnson has taken a break from winning on them. Truex is averaging a 16th-place finish and never has won in 21 starts at Atlanta. Not having Cole Pearn as crew chief in 2020 has made a huge impact as Truex doesn't have a single top-five finish in nine starts after leading the Cup Series last year with seven wins.

11 #48 Jimmie Johnson (18-1) -- He's the active leader with five wins and 14 top-five finishes at Atlanta. In 29 starts, he's averaged a 12th-place finish. With the abrasive surface, this is a track on which he can use his thinking skills to wait for all the others to slow as he saves his tires on a long run. He's been fast in almost every race using this package.

12 #10 Aric Almirola (75-1) -- He had a career-best eighth-place finish at Atlanta last season after starting from the pole and leading 36 laps. He's had a couple of fast cars this season using this week's race package. He's not quite in the Harvick category yet at Stewart-Haas Racing, but he's close.

13 #14 Clint Bowyer (40-1) -- He's had his best Atlanta finishes in his last two races there - third in 2018 and fifth last season, his only top-fives in 19 starts. Another top-five? I'll certainly be playing him in a few driver matchups.

14 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (125-1) -- His best finish in seven Atlanta races has been 10th in 2016, and he's averaged 18th place. However, I liked what I saw when he finished third in the second Darlington race. I also like how hard he races, with no remorse. He'll get all he can out of the car or wreck trying.

15 #24 William Byron (30-1) -- In two Cup Series starts at Atlanta, he's finished 17th and 18th. Of the four Hendrick cars, Byron has gotten the least speed out of his, although sometimes he shows glimpses of being ready to win. I have a feeling the abrasive surface is going to eat up his tires more than the smarter veterans.

16 #22 Joey Logano (15-2) -- He's been good in his last seven starts at Atlanta with two top-five finishes. But in the six races using this week's package, he's been just above average, with his only top-five being a win at Las Vegas that was aided by a late pitting strategy.

17 #95 Christopher Bell (200-1) -- The rookie makes his Atlanta debut in the Cup Series, but he's far from a novice on this track. He won the Xfinity Series race last season and a Truck Series race here in 2017. He finished ninth in the Coca-Cola 600 using this week's race package.

18 #42 Matt Kenseth (60-1) -- He's made 29 starts at Atlanta and compiled 11 top-fives, which has helped him average an 11th-place finish, the best among drivers with more than five starts. His comeback race at Darlington saw him finish 10th, but he looked as though he should have remained in retirement in the last three with this package. Still, he's got a good car.

19 #8 Tyler Reddick (60-1) -- He makes his debut at Atlanta in the Cup Series, but a pair of top-10 finishes in the last four races using this week's package suggest his team has figured out a way to get some speed.

20 #21 Matt DiBenedetto (60-1) -- He's got a 28th-place average finish in four Cup Series starts at Atlanta. But he's been very competitive with this week's race package, as he was runner-up at Las Vegas and ninth in the second Darlington race.yyy