Current odds with my early leans highlighted..
Chase Hooper -210: Hooper has nearly spiked over 200 so the value is gone. But at the end of the day winning is most important & I think Chase should win this matchup because he is the better grappler. Alex got taken down in his last fight multiple times & I expect Chase to take advantage of a weak grappler. I could see this ending early via submission or tko, and if it goes the distance Chase should win fairly easily based on mat control and takedowns alone. Only way I can see him losing is tko; he loves to get hit as weird as that sounds he just isn’t a great striker hopefully we see improved standup from Chase come tonight. He is only 20 so I understand he still has to mature, but I do like Chase here to get the W.
Niel Magny -135: Niel has a 7 inch reach advantage & when I watched his last fight he just was dominating after a few shots in the first he controlled each round never looking tired. I think Martin is a good fighter but his last bout wasn’t impressive. Niel looks like a man on a mission. Should be a very entertaining fight with Niel getting the win. Likely will go well into the 3rd if not the distance but we can win by stoppage or on the cards
other randoms...
Dunham-Burns: Burns being -210 is relying on Dunham being shot, I don't think he is. I may bet Burns KO, but I think if Dunham gets out of round 1 he has a great chance to win. Pick is Burns rd 1 ko.
Menifield-Clark: I think Clark is the better fighter, but has chin issues and could just get smashed in rd 1. If he makes it out of rd 1 he should win the fight. Tossup here for me...
Formiga-Perez: I like Perez ML here. Seems to have value as I cap closer to 65%.
Byrd-Pitolo: Byrd should get the finish here as he show much better skills and trains out of better camp.
Stamman-Kelleher: Stamman can't finish fights, so he will need to dominate the grappling to win this decision, and at +215 I may actually play Kelleher.
Heinisch-GM3: Fairly confident in GM3 here, he's the better striker and grappler and likely wins a decision.
O'Malley-Wineland O'Malley rd 1 tko is pick but if it gets out of rd 1 I think Wineland will be live at +400
Assuncao-Cody: Assuncao is easy pick for me as a dog. Cody can't be trusted and likely gets countered and outboxed. Assunaco athletic decline is somewhat of a concern.
Nunes-Spencer: I think Spencer absorbs a ton of damage and either gets finished late or loses a decisive decision. Spencer could be a live dog if Nunes looks tired after her typical round 1 onslaught. But at current odds I wont be laying -545. Probably take under or a KO prop
Chase Hooper -210: Hooper has nearly spiked over 200 so the value is gone. But at the end of the day winning is most important & I think Chase should win this matchup because he is the better grappler. Alex got taken down in his last fight multiple times & I expect Chase to take advantage of a weak grappler. I could see this ending early via submission or tko, and if it goes the distance Chase should win fairly easily based on mat control and takedowns alone. Only way I can see him losing is tko; he loves to get hit as weird as that sounds he just isn’t a great striker hopefully we see improved standup from Chase come tonight. He is only 20 so I understand he still has to mature, but I do like Chase here to get the W.
Niel Magny -135: Niel has a 7 inch reach advantage & when I watched his last fight he just was dominating after a few shots in the first he controlled each round never looking tired. I think Martin is a good fighter but his last bout wasn’t impressive. Niel looks like a man on a mission. Should be a very entertaining fight with Niel getting the win. Likely will go well into the 3rd if not the distance but we can win by stoppage or on the cards
other randoms...
Dunham-Burns: Burns being -210 is relying on Dunham being shot, I don't think he is. I may bet Burns KO, but I think if Dunham gets out of round 1 he has a great chance to win. Pick is Burns rd 1 ko.
Menifield-Clark: I think Clark is the better fighter, but has chin issues and could just get smashed in rd 1. If he makes it out of rd 1 he should win the fight. Tossup here for me...
Formiga-Perez: I like Perez ML here. Seems to have value as I cap closer to 65%.
Byrd-Pitolo: Byrd should get the finish here as he show much better skills and trains out of better camp.
Stamman-Kelleher: Stamman can't finish fights, so he will need to dominate the grappling to win this decision, and at +215 I may actually play Kelleher.
Heinisch-GM3: Fairly confident in GM3 here, he's the better striker and grappler and likely wins a decision.
O'Malley-Wineland O'Malley rd 1 tko is pick but if it gets out of rd 1 I think Wineland will be live at +400
Assuncao-Cody: Assuncao is easy pick for me as a dog. Cody can't be trusted and likely gets countered and outboxed. Assunaco athletic decline is somewhat of a concern.
Nunes-Spencer: I think Spencer absorbs a ton of damage and either gets finished late or loses a decisive decision. Spencer could be a live dog if Nunes looks tired after her typical round 1 onslaught. But at current odds I wont be laying -545. Probably take under or a KO prop
[4-0 +7.53]
Jussier Formiga VS Alex Perez
Perez -128
4/3.13
Formiga is low ouput fighter / Perez is high output fighter. Also not impressed with Formiga’s last outing against Brandon Moreno where he mounted virtually no offense. I think we’re getting a decent price here for Perez who looks better all around in my opinion. Perez should be able to get the upper hand in just about any area, whether its striking or wrestling, with BJJ being the area he may dominate. The thing is though that BJJ on its own without either good wrestling or good striking to compliment it often leaves fighters looking out of water when they can’t implement their gameplan. This is where Perez has an advantage in my opinion, he can dictate where the fight takes place, using his wrestling to avoid the ground and keep the fight standing, and then, worst case scenario, if he needs to take Formiga down to gather himself he has that option. Perez looks primed to win this fight in my eyes and we get decent value as well.
Jussier Formiga VS Alex Perez
Perez -128
4/3.13
Formiga is low ouput fighter / Perez is high output fighter. Also not impressed with Formiga’s last outing against Brandon Moreno where he mounted virtually no offense. I think we’re getting a decent price here for Perez who looks better all around in my opinion. Perez should be able to get the upper hand in just about any area, whether its striking or wrestling, with BJJ being the area he may dominate. The thing is though that BJJ on its own without either good wrestling or good striking to compliment it often leaves fighters looking out of water when they can’t implement their gameplan. This is where Perez has an advantage in my opinion, he can dictate where the fight takes place, using his wrestling to avoid the ground and keep the fight standing, and then, worst case scenario, if he needs to take Formiga down to gather himself he has that option. Perez looks primed to win this fight in my eyes and we get decent value as well.
[4-0 +7.53]
Jussier Formiga VS Alex Perez
Perez -128
4/3.13
Formiga is low ouput fighter / Perez is high output fighter. Also not impressed with Formiga’s last outing against Brandon Moreno where he mounted virtually no offense. I think we’re getting a decent price here for Perez who looks better all around in my opinion. Perez should be able to get the upper hand in just about any area, whether its striking or wrestling, with BJJ being the area he may dominate. The thing is though that BJJ on its own without either good wrestling or good striking to compliment it often leaves fighters looking out of water when they can’t implement their gameplan. This is where Perez has an advantage in my opinion, he can dictate where the fight takes place, using his wrestling to avoid the ground and keep the fight standing, and then, worst case scenario, if he needs to take Formiga down to gather himself he has that option. Perez looks primed to win this fight in my eyes and we get decent value as well.
Nice call. Im tailing most of these. Thank you
[FONT="]Be patient grasshopper, next bout worth serious look is coming...[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Magny has height, reach and has fought high levels of competition. A;so he has higher output across the board than his opponent. Martin is a decision/submission type of fighter with 0 KO’s in the UFC. His style is to gas you with his forward pressure, but he has a hard time of actually securing takedowns and against Magny he will have a serious reach/height gap to close in order to be able to actually engage Magny with his own strikes. He seems outgunned in this fight and I think Magny has a high likelihood of victory.[/FONT]
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[FONT="]Magny has height, reach and has fought high levels of competition. A;so he has higher output across the board than his opponent. Martin is a decision/submission type of fighter with 0 KO’s in the UFC. His style is to gas you with his forward pressure, but he has a hard time of actually securing takedowns and against Magny he will have a serious reach/height gap to close in order to be able to actually engage Magny with his own strikes. He seems outgunned in this fight and I think Magny has a high likelihood of victory.[/FONT]
Magnys gas tank is crazy, he fights every second he is in the ring never takes a break, Dam he looked good Vs Li Jingliang.
[6-4 +3.5] | ||
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[FONT="]This is a very close matchup, but I think Sandhagen has that extra bit of craftiness to eek out the victory here. My thinking is that Sandhagen is like a longer taller version of Sterling with an awkward evasive style. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and who will try to take the fight to the mat. It’s also interesting to note that while Sandhagen has a 4” height advantage (5’7 vs 5’11), Aljo actually has a longer reach by an inch (71” vs 70”). I think ultimately that even though Sterling has a slight reach advantage, he will have difficulty closing the gap with Sandhagen who seems to look better in each UFC performance he’s had. Not to mention that Sandhagen trains at Team elevation who has been on an absolute tear recently as a gym. Close fight, but I'll lean Sandhagen here for the the W. Could be fight of the night if they don't fight too carefully.[/FONT]
[10-5 +9.43] | ||
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Cody coming off of 3 straight TKO losses...that’s a scary proposition if the threat of being KO’d was an issue here. Assuncao only has 4 TKO victories in his entire fighting career, looking more to employ his gas tank, and takedowns/grappling then to stand and bang. Garbrandt has amazing takedown defense with better hands then Assuncao and should be able to avoid being taken down while piecing up Assuncao throughout the fight. Looks like a good tune up match for Garbrandt to get back into the win column
