Sal Johnson
PGA
Charles Schwab Challenge
It's tough to believe the last round on the PGA Tour took place 91 days ago. This is the longest stretch without competition on the PGA Tour since the mid 1980s, when the season ended in mid-October and started back up in January.
Competitive golf finally returns this week with the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. It will be the first tournament round since March 11, when the first round of The Players Championship was played at TPC Sawgrass. That night, the PGA Tour made the decision to shut the season down because of the coronavirus crisis.
Getting the PGA Tour going again has taken a lot of planning. Officials have made a lot of concessions, with the biggest of course being no fans allowed for the first four weeks. The Tour will allow only players, caddies, officials and limited media on site. The courses will be set up the same, with gallery ropes and electronic leaderboards, but there will be no gallery.
Everyone from players and caddies to officials will be tested throughout the week to make sure the 1,000 or so allowed at Colonial will be healthy. Players will stay together in hotels and ride to the course on transportation that will be monitored to assure it is virus-free. Family and friends will not be allowed, which will be a difficult concession for players who are used to traveling with family.
CBS Sports also will be restricted, with announcer Jim Nantz and two on-course reporters at Colonial. Analysys Nick Faldo, Ian Baker-Finch, Frank Nobilo and Trevor Immelman will be in the Golf Channel studios in Orlando, some 1,100 miles away.
The field this week will be the best in the tournament's 74-year history. There are 148 players in the field, including 69 of the top 100 in the World Golf Ranking. That includes 36 of the top 50 and seven of the top 10. The field also includes 22 of the top 25 in the FedEx Cup standings, and 14 past Colonial champions.
With the return to golf after a three-month absence and a loaded field, the weekend ratings should be record-setting.
Playing without a gallery
To get things started, the PGA Tour had to stipulate no fans could attend. The lack of fans didn't seem to play into the equation at last month's TaylorMade Driving Relief and Capital One The Match charity events. But that was with only one group on the course and the players just happy to have some competition.
Early in the week, it shouldn't be a big deal, as 40 of the 50 groups at a typical Tour event have little in the way of gallery on Thursday and Friday. But when we get to the weekend, could make a big difference.
The players feed off the sound of the gallery, and in some cases, it helps players determine where they stand. If a player is in contention coming down the stretch on Sunday, the lack of cheering could affect players.
Fans create the adrenaline and energy for great players to hit great shots in the clutch. On the other hand, players not accustomed to big galleries could benefit without the pressure of screaming fans all around them. So in the weeks ahead we could see some unexpected champions.
Well-rested or rusty?
Players on the PGA Tour are creatures of habit. For most players, each day consists of a workout regimen and working on their games. During a typical season, from New Year's to around Thanksgiving, it is rare for players to take more than a couple of weeks off.
But when players left TPC Sawgrass in March, with the prospect of a long break from tournament play, many pros returned home and threw the clubs into the garage. Some found this to be a great opportunity to spend time with family, while others got reacquainted with their couches.
Some players like Gary Woodland, found ways to keep playing. When Woodland returned home to Delray Beach, Fla., the courses in the area were closed. He wanted to play every day, so he returned to his birthplace, Topeka, Kansas, where he has been working hard on his game.
South Korean Sungjae Im has been golf's ironman since turning pro in 2015 at age 17. Since 2017, he has played in 107 events, and he goes from hotel to hotel each week as he doesn't have a home base, so when things shut down he didn't know what to do.
Im stayed with a friend in Tampa, and while he spent some time fishing, he was able to play every day. Last month, he brought his coach from South Korea and has been working hard on his game, so the FedEx Cup leader is ready to go this week.
Others just started playing again in the last month, but the break helped clear their minds and allowed some aches and pains to heal.
Most of these pros have never been forced off the course for long periods, so we will have to wait and see what the ramifications of missing competition will be.
About Colonial Country Club
This is the 74th edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge, and since the tournament was first played in 1946 it has only been played on Colonial National. Only one tournament has had a longer run on the same course -- The Masters at Augusta National.
Colonial has the distinction as the only club in America that has hosted the U.S. Open (1941), the Players Championship (1975) and the U.S. Women's Open (1991).
The tournament started in 1946 because course owner John Marvin Leonard realized the USGA wasn't going to make Colonial an annual stop. Ben Hogan was a member at Colonial, and Leonard wanted to start an event so people in Hogan's hometown could watch him compete. Hogan went on to win five times at Colonial, and the course was dubbed "Hogan's Alley."
Colonial is a great course, but as technology has changed the game, it has become a relic of a bygone era, and accuracy off the tee and precision shots to the greens are important.
Colonial is one of golf's treasured layouts, but the course is hemmed in by the Trinity River and homes on all sides, so there is no way to add yardage. In 75 years, only 174 yards have been added to the course, so Mother Nature plays a big role in how challenging it will be.
If it is dry and windy, it can be a challenge. In those conditions in 2002, the course played to a 71.21 average, a shot over the course's par of 70. If the wind doesn't blow, the course turns easy, like in 2010, when the average was 68.54.
The key to Colonial is that 12 of the 14 par 4s and 5s are doglegs, and players have to throttle back off the tee to avoid running through the doglegs and into problems.
The course does have tight fairways with rough and trees, and the trees are mature and very large.
Keys to winning
Most of the great shotmakers have won at Colonial (with the exception of Tiger Woods). In 2018, Justin Rose was added to a list that includes Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Julius Boros, Gene Littler, Lanny Wadkins, Nick Price, Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, Tom Watson, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson.
You don't see long hitters like Woods, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and J.B. Holmes play here often, because they don't like courses that force the driver out of their hands.
The most important stat here is Ball Striking, and odds are a player in the top 30 on that list will win. Some of the players in the top 30 in this statistic are Gary Woodland (No. 1), Webb Simpson (third) , Jon Rahm (seventh), Xander Schauffele (11th), Bryson DeChambeau (21st), Rory McIlroy (22nd), Scottie Scheffler (23rd) and Collin Morikawa (T24).
The winners are usually accurate with the driver and hit a lot of greens. Going back to 2008, when Phil Mickelson won it, only three of the 12 champions were outside the top 10 in greens hit. Kevin Kisner in 2017 was second, while 2018 champion Justin Rose and Kevin Na last year led that stat.
Experience is also important at Colonial. Since 1996, the 21 players who have won at Colonial have combined for 254 PGA Tour wins, an average of 12.1 wins.
Last year's winner, Kevin Na, won his third tournament and got another title later in the year at the Shriners. Justin Rose won two other times after winning at Colonial in 2018, 2016 champion Jordan Spieth won for the eighth time while 2014 champion Adam Scott won for the 11th time.
The fact is, rookies don't win at Colonial. Sergio Garcia got his first PGA Tour win at Colonial, but he had won previously in Europe. Ian Baker-Finch in 1989 also was a first-time winner but had won before in Australia. In the 74-year history of the event, there have been only eight first-time winners.
Scores run the gamut at Colonial, but Mother Nature could have something for the players this week. It hasn't rained recently in the Fort Worth area, so the course is firm and fast, and there is no rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the 90s, with winds blowing between 10 and 13 mph, so the course could play very tough. With conditions like this, the winner will be a player who has won many times before on the PGA Tour.
√ Make sure the ball is in play and stay out of the rough and trees off the tee.
√ Hit a lot of greens and get the ball as close to the hole as possible.
√ The firm course will mean a lot of roll in the fairways, so short hitters should do well. They will be able to keep up with long hitters, who will have to throttle back off the tee.
√ The dry greens will be firm, and it will be hard to keep the balls on the green.
√ Patience is important, especially if the wind blows. The course is very manageable, and the short length should decrease stress.
√ There is nothing tricky here, so managing their game will be of utmost importance for players this week.
One of the five should win
1. Jon Rahm
√ Was playing great before the shutdown. Was T-3 in his last start at WGC-Mexico and second at the Farmers.
√ He missed the cut at Colonial last year but was T-5 in 2018 and runner-up in 2017, so he can play well here.
√ Is seventh in Ball Striking, 27th in Greens in Regulation and first in Par Breakers in 2020.
2. Webb Simpson
√ Was having a great 2020 with wins at Phoenix, second at the RSM Classic and third at the Sony Open. He plays well on ball-striker courses.
√ Has mixed results at Colonial. In five starts, was fifth in 2017 and T-3 in 2016, when the conditions were similar to what this week should bring.
√ Is third in Ball Striking, seventh in Greens in Regulation, first in Par Breakers and 13th in Strokes Gained Putting in 2020.
3. Rory McIlroy
√ Is playing for the first time at Colonial, but he could do well this week if he is smart and the driver stays in the bag most of the time.
√ Was fifth at Mexico, T-5 at the Palmer and Genesis, T-3 at Farmers. Is still struggling in final rounds -- he shot 76 on Sunday at the Palmer.
√ Is second in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, T-18 in Greens in Regulation, fifth in Par Breakers in 2020, and all are key stats for Colonial.
4. Gary Woodland
√ His only start at Colonial was T-73 in 2012, but he has been practicing hard in Kansas, and his game was sharp before the break.
√ In his last two starts before the break was T-8 at Honda and T-12 in Mexico.
√ He leads the PGA Tour in the most important stat here (Ball Striking) in 2020, is sixth in Greens in Regulation and T-25 in Par Breakers.
5. Justin Thomas
√ Playing at Colonial for the first time, he is smart and will learn fast how to throttle back on the course.
√ Has won twice in 2020, at CJ Cup and Sentry, and was T-6 at WGC-Mexico in his last start.
√ Is T-37 in Ball Striking, fifth in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 12th in Greens in Regulation and second in Par Breakers.
Players you should consider
6. Rickie Fowler
√ He missed the cut last year at Colonial, but he was T-5 in 2012 so knows how to play here
√ Was T-5 at the Sentry, T-10 at American Express and finished T-18 at the Arnold Palmer even though he shot 77-74 on the weekend.
√ Is 54th in Driving Accuracy, 149th in Greens in Regulation, T-49 in Strokes Gained Putting. But he showed something at the TaylorMade Driving Relief last month and appears ready to play well again.
7. Matt Kuchar
√ Solid record at Colonial, with three top-10s in 11 starts, including a second in 2013 and T-6 in 2016.
√ Game showed promise as he finished T-2 at Genesis Open.
√ Is 14th in Fairways Hit but 104th in Greens in Regulation. It helps that he is 14th in Strokes Gained Putting and 44th in Par Breakers.
8. Harris English
√ Has played at Colonial five times and was second in 2016 and T-5 in 2012. Last year, he finished T-20.
√ Played well early in the 2020 season with four top-six finishes in his first five starts. His last start was T-9 at Arnold Palmer.
√ Is fifth in Ball Striking for 2020, fifth in Greens in Regulation and 39th in Strokes Gained Putting.
9. Sungjae Im
√ Another great player who did good before the break. In his last two weeks, he won the Honda and finished third at the Arnold Palmer, but he slowed down over the weekend, shooting 74-73.
√ Missed the cut last year at Colonial, but he will be refreshed and ready after spending three months in Tampa working on his game.
√ His stats have gotten better as the year goes on. He is 22nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 34th in Proximity to Hole, T-13 in Par Breakers.
10. Patrick Reed
√ Has played at Colonial three times, the last in 2016 when he was T-15.
√ Won at Mexico and was T-15 at Arnold Palmer, which was great considering he shot 80 in the third round.
√ From tee to green his stats are poor, but around the green he is great. He is 39th in Scrambling, third in Strokes Gained Putting and seventh in Par Breakers.
11. Kevin Na
√ Is the defending champion and was fourth in 2018.
√ Won at Shriners, was T-9 at Mexico.
√ Is 15th in Strokes Gained tee-to-Green, 7th in Strokes Gained Putting, plays well in wind.
12. Steve Stricker
√ This isn't a mistake. He is probably the shortest hitter in the field, but with dry fairways and longer players having to throttle back, Stricker will be right up there.
√ Has won at Colonial and was T-7 in 2017, so he is good on the course.
√ His stats are terrible, but he's great on the course and the conditions help him.
13. Jim Furyk
√ Another over-50 player who should do great with the dry conditions. He has played in the event 22 times and has seven top-10 finishes with the best being a T-2 in 2007.
√ Hasn't shown much this year but leads the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation.
Players who are rested and ready
14. Brooks Koepka
√ He had a lot of rest to heal his wounded knee and was second in his only start at Colonial in 2018.
√ After a slow start to his year, he did some work with old coach Butch Harmon, and it took 10 minutes to find four swing problems, which they fixed quickly.
√ Despite his stats being poor for 2020, this week should be a big comeback week for him.
15. Ryan Palmer
√ Is a member of Colonial, and in 16 starts he has four top-10s, including a T-3 in 2016 and T-6 last year.
√ Was T-4 at the Sony Open, on a course like Colonial that requires drives to be in the fairway.
√ Is T-40 in Ball Striking, 19th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and 29th in Par Breakers
16. Jordan Spieth
√ Has a great record at Colonial. Won in 2016, was T-2 in 2015 and '17. In 28 rounds, his worst score is 73, and he has been under par 21 of the 28 rounds.
√ The break could help Spieth, who needs to get back to how he swung the club in 2015.
√ Was T-9 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
17. Justin Rose
√ After playing great in his career, took big dollars to switch from TaylorMade after 20 years to play with Honma clubs.
√ He won the 2019 Farmers after the change, but he soon struggled to hit the ball well.
√ Switched back to his old clubs at the Arnold Palmer, and returning to Colonial, where he won in 2018, could help him regain some lost magic.
Don't expect much
18. Dustin Johnson
√ Has had mixed results in two tries at Colonial. Was T-14 in 2014 and T-74 in 2008, and Colonial doesn't seem to be one of his favorite courses.
√ Game was coming along as he was T-10 at Genesis and T-48 in Mexico in his last two starts before the break.
√ None of his stats for the year are impressive, and he didn't fare well in the Skins Game a couple of weeks ago, so he could still be rusty.
19. Xander Schauffele
√ Has had a tough time at Colonial, missing the cut in 2019 and '18.
√ Has had mixed results since he was runner-up at the Sentry, with his best finish T-14 at Mexico.
√ Has been great from tee to green and is 11th in Ball Striking. Has struggled on the greens and is 119th in Strokes Gained Putting. If he putts better, he will score better, but this might not be the right event for him.
20. Bryson DeChambeau
√ He has struggled a lot at Colonial, mostly due to poor driving. In four starts, he has missed the cut three times.
√ He was red-hot before the break, finishing T-5 at Genesis, second in Mexico and fourth at the Arnold Palmer. During the stretch, he was 26 under, but any momentum may be lost from the break.
√ Is 122nd in Fairway Accuracy, 52nd in Greens in Regulation and 22nd in Strokes Gained Putting.
A solid no this week
21. Jason Day
√ Has played the Colonial four times, with the last in 2011, and he isn't a fan of the course.
√ Was fourth at Pebble Beach, but he missed the cut at the Genesis and had back problems last week at the Palmer. forcing him to withdraw after four holes.
√ Unfortunately, no matter how much time off he has, his back is a ticking time bomb that he doesn't want to gamble on.
