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Soso card...

odds


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thoughts...

Jessica Eye +122 - Surprised at the odds, I'm not the biggest Jessica Eye fan, but Cavillo is coming off a draw against Marina Rodriguez....and now she's going up a weight class and is favored vs Eye, who has beaten Katlyn Chookagian and has been in the ring with Valentina Shevchenko?

Eye's weight cut wasn't great, but I think maybe it's a bit overblown. Yeah, I know "Aspen Ladd got KOd in 10 seconds last year after her bad weight cut." Ladd also got caught by a mean hook by GDR! That stoppage was also controversial and I'm not sure if Ladd's weight cut went perfect we would've seen a different result. Eye is going to have 36 hours to rehydrate and get her body back in shape.

Cavillo said in an interview this week that she wants to win (duh) but even if she loses she's just happy to be headlining a UFC card. Her path to victory is through grappling and takedowns. I'd be shocked to see her outstrike Eye. This is a 5-round fight as well. Can Cavillo get a TD and steal a round? Yes, but when you look at the odds on fight length there is -240 juice on o4.5. We are expecting this fight to go the distance. I see Eye outstriking Cavillo and stuffing enough takedowns in R1-3 to steal 2/3 rounds before Cavillo's gas tank goes on empty in R4-5. Once Cavillo is gassed, her advantage (TDs & grappling) will waiver. That's when Eye will take full control thanks to her superior striking.

I think Eye wins this fight 60% of the time based on her experience and skill set. +115 is great value based on my perceived value.

Cifers vs Agapova Over 2½ -172 - While not the best odds, there is clear value in overs in WMMA fights where both fighters are strikers. There is of course a huge weight and size mismatch here, favoring Agapova but Cifers being the better fighter overall it could play out either way. Can’t see either of them initiating any grappling or having the power to KO the enemy out cold.

Also leaning Roberson +200 and Aguilera +170 for live dogs
 

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Fight #1
1901 Christian Aguilera +170 vs Anthony Ivy
1.5/2.55

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[FONT=&quot][1-0 +2.55][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1809 Nam wins inside distance +304 vs Not Nam inside distance
1/3.04
1802 Tyson Nam -130 vs Zarrukh Adashev
2.08/1.6[/FONT]


[FONT=&quot]Adashev is only 3-1, very inexperienced in MMA, and has mostly fought in kickboxing. Very unimpressed with him and think Nam should get his first UFC win comfortably. Nam ML and ITD[/FONT]

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[FONT=&quot]if anyone needs links[/FONT]
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Code:
http://crackstreams.com/mmastreams/watch-ufc-eye-vs-calvillo/[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#141414][FONT=&quot]http://ripple.is/mma/12531-ufc-live-stream
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​​
[3-0 +7.19]​​

  1. 1709 Avila wins inside distance* -150 vs Not Avila inside distance
    1.5/1
  2. 1733 Avila wins by TKO/KO* +105 vs Any other result
    1/1.05

No value here but should still cash


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[FONT=&quot]
5-0 +9.24]
1601 Gustavo Lopez/Merab Dvalishvili* Over 2½ -147
1.47/1

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[FONT=&quot]Token play, zero value but wtf eva...I'm hot
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just a question for over 2.5 rounds. If the fight ends on the 3rd round (ie tko/ko/submission) or whatever... as long as it is the third round thats a win right?
 

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  • Hannah Cifers VS Mariya Agapova
    Over 2½ -158
    4.98/3.15
  • 1503 Cifers / Agapova goes 3 round distance -155 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
    2.25/1.45


Do really like next one though. Agapova decision is likely outcome but Cifers could make it close and it's dog or pass. Definitely would not parlay side in this one. Just really hard to imagine a finish here.


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just a question for over 2.5 rounds. If the fight ends on the 3rd round (ie tko/ko/submission) or whatever... as long as it is the third round thats a win right?

it has to go over 2.5 rounds or past the 2:30 point of the 3rd round
 

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[FONT=&quot]
[6-2 +3.01]​
402 Jordan Espinosa -160 vs Mark De La Rosa
3.2/2

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[FONT=&quot]well that sucked...easy come easy go[/FONT]
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rest of my night, im out​​

  1. 1002 Jessica Eye* +120 vs Cynthia Calvillo
    3/3.6
  2. 1101 Karl Roberson* +175 vs Marvin Vettori
    2/3.5
  3. 1301 Charles Jourdain/Andre Fili* Over 2½ -142
    1.7/1.2
  4. 1302 Andre Fili* -200 vs Charles Jourdain
    4/2

Good luck gents...
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[9-4 +3.21]​


Decent night but could have been much better after 5-0 start. Ciefer over cost me 7.2u and was enough to keep me from an excellent night.


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