Wednesday Service Play Thread 06/17/2020

BuzzKill · Jun 14, 2020

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GDaddy46 · Jun 17, 2020

Inkbets

BLAST Premier: G2 ML v ENCE @ 1.77/-130 (3 Units)
-Successfully faded G2 a couple days ago but this line seems to be far too tight for the real gap between the two. Now that G2 is ranked #1 by HLTV I find it hard to see them consistently blowing games over and over. After being reverse swept by BIG in a BO5 and then losing 0-2 to Vitality this should be a redemption match for them.Their map pool is deeper, they have the more talented roster, and their upside is as good as any team in the world. Now that they've had a day off to regain composure and prepare for this game I find them winning this more often than not. -130 implies 56.5% but I'd put this closer to the 62% range and price them at -163.Given that ENCE autoban Vertigo that leaves G2 open to whatever they please and that's a hard thing for ENCE to prepare for. You're left in a state of uncertainty as G2 could go to a variety of maps. Like G2 in this spot a lot.

LOOTBET: Wisla Krakow +1.5 v HAVU @ 2.12/+112 (1.5 Units)
-Not a ton behind this as I don't know a ton of Wisla in their current state, but I'd never lay HAVU -1.5 at their line with their current form. They've fallen off a ton and Wisla can easily snag a map in one of these shitcups online.

ESL Pro League Qual: CORRECT SCORE Virtus Pro 2-1 v Spirit @ 4.84/+384 (1 Unit)
-Virtus Pro are catching a stride since adding YEKINDAR and Spirit have had very shaky results recently. Mainly a play on the price more than anything else as Overpass will be a problem for VP. Spirit should win that one and rather than laying VP @ +160 I'd prefer to play the series score prop at this line for smaller. IF VP win, it would be 2-1 more often than 2-0. if the o2.5 was a hair higher I'd have opted for that, but will throw a modest 1u on this prop.

WePlay: HellRaisers +1.5 v Nemiga @ 1.80/-125 (2 Units)
WePlay: HellRaisers ML v Nemiga @ 3.80/+280 (0.5 Unit)
-Watching this HellRaisers team a few weeks back I was disgusted. They did nothing well and lost almost every meaningful duel. With that said, they've been marginally better in recent games. Still nothing special by any means but the same is to be said for Nemiga.Nemiga had a good run in the Road to Rio matches but there's always those CIS region teams that manage to do that. Every single major. This price feels like a drastic overcompensation still from those games and will try a stab at HR here since Nemiga permaban Train and HR ban out Overpass leaving a bunch of high variance maps.

Wednesday Service Play Thread 06/17/2020

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BuzzKill

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GDaddy46

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