Saturday Service Play Thread 06/20/2020

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Kyle Marley

UFC

He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 16 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $21,000.

Marley has hit a WHOPPING 10 consecutive UFC main-event picks, a streak that includes five straight upsets! Last week at UFC Fight Night, Marley kept his hot streak rolling by predicting a unanimous-decision victory for Cynthia Calvillo (-135) against Jessica Eye (+110) in the main event. He also called a win for Marvin Vettori (-200) against Karl Roberson (+175) in the co-main event.


Here are Marley's picks and analysis for UFC Fight Night (odds from William Hill US):

Curtis Blaydes (-400) vs. Alexander Volkov (+320): Blaydes via TKO

Volkov is likely going to need a knockout to win. He is the more technical striker, but I don't see him being able to keep this fight on the feet long enough to win three rounds. Blaydes lands 6.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and that is exactly what he is going to do. He is a beast with takedowns and he lands heavy ground-and-pound in top control. I think he could win this fight on the scorecards if it goes that long, but I see him getting a knockout. It most likely comes from ground-and-pound, but it wouldn't shock me to see him get the KO on the feet, either.

Shane Burgos (-135) vs. Josh Emmett (+115): Burgos via decision

I think Burgos is the cleaner striker and should be the guy landing more volume. He has susceptible defense and Emmett throws big power. I think Emmett is live for an upset knockout but, if he doesn't get it, I see Burgos getting his hand raised. I think he could get a finish of his own but the mostly likely outcome is that he gets a win on the scorecards.

Raquel Pennington (-140) vs. Marion Reneau (+120): Pennington via decision

Reneau is 42 years old now and coming off back-to-back losses. I don't know what Reneau we are getting, so she is too hard to trust. If this was Reneau from a couple years ago, then I would take these odds because I think it would be a 50-50 fight. I think she is on the way out and I am going to take Pennington to win a 15-minute striking battle.

Belal Muhammad (-145) vs. Lyman Good (+125): Muhammad via decision

If this was just a striking match, I would probably take Good. I think he will be the one throwing more volume on the feet and he is the more dangerous striker as well. However, Muhammad can keep this close on the feet and his big edge is on the ground. He is a solid wrestler and Good doesn't have much to offer off his back. I think Muhammad could get a submission on the ground, but I think he most likely uses his top control time to land strikes and win the judges over that way.

Roosevelt Roberts (-230) vs. Jim Miller (+195): Roberts via decision

Roberts is coming off one of the most impressive performances of his career and, at this point in their careers, I think he is probably better everywhere. Miller is still dangerous on the ground but, at 36 years old, we have seen the best of him. I would say Roberts is the better wrestler so if he wants to keep this standing, I think he can do so. He could have success on the ground as well, but I see him being the faster guy on the feet and winning mainly with his striking.

Bobby Green (-230) vs. Clay Guida (+195): Green via TKO

Green is the better striker, so Guida's path to victory is going to be his wrestling. I think Guida could have success with takedowns and, if he can get them, then he can win rounds. But Green is probably going to piece him up on the feet and stuff most takedowns. If Guida gets takedowns, Green is more likely to get back up than be submitted. I am going to take him to get the win via TKO or decision.

Brianna Van Buren (-200) vs. Tecia Torres (+175): Van Buren via decision

I like Van Buren and I think she has championship-caliber potential. She is a great wrestler and she can have an edge there against basically anybody in the division. She has decent striking as well and can win this fight anywhere. Torres is scrappy and can keep this fight close, but I see Van Buren landing the harder shots with more volume and she always has the wrestling she can fall back on.

Oskar Piechota (-130) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+110): Barriault via TKO

I think Piechota is going to be the better fighter for one round. After that, he starts to slow down and, the longer this fight goes, the more it should shift in favor of Barriault. Barriault has more power and the better cardio and that could be enough to get the job done. I think he will need to win rounds 2 and 3 to get his hand raised, but I could see him getting a late finish.

Gillian Robertson (-120) vs. Cortney Casey (+100): Casey via TKO

The ground game is where this fight is going to be interesting. Both fighters can finish on the ground, but Robertson is going to be the one aggressively looking to get the fight to the mat. She is completely outgunned on the feet, so her only shot is the ground game. Casey's weakness is being put on her back, but she does have submissions and I don't think Robertson can aggressively wrestle for a hard three rounds. If Robertson doesn't get a submission, she could be in trouble. I like Casey to pretty much dominate while this fight is on the feet and, the longer this fight goes, the more it will favor her.

Matt Frevola (-115) vs. Frank Camacho (-105): Frevola via decision

This could be the Fight of the Night. I think on the feet this should be a banger and likely a high-paced fight. Camacho is probably the one that will be landing more volume, but Frevola is the one more likely to take this fight to the mat. I think either guy could get knocked out, but if this fight goes the distance, Frevola is more likely to get his hand raised.

Roxanne Modafferi (-120) vs. Lauren Murphy (+100): Murphy via decision

I like Murphy on the feet, but I'd slightly favor Modafferi on the mat. I think Modafferi is the better grappler, but I don't know that she is the better wrestler. If she can't get the fight to the mat, she gets out-struck on the feet. If she can get the fight to the mat, she can keep Murphy on her back or even find a submission. But I am going to take Murphy because I think she can stuff takedowns and have enough success on the feet to get her hand raised.

Max Rohskopf (-155) vs. Austin Hubbard (+135): Rohskopf via submission

Rohskopf is making his UFC debut here on a week's notice. He looks like a solid prospect and he is very solid on the ground. He has good wrestling and grappling, and he should have a huge edge on the mat. He will be at a disadvantage on the feet, and I'd say power is the only attribute he would be better at in the striking game. Hubbard can be taken down, and if Rohskopf get it to the mat, he can finish this fight.

Mike McClure

UFC

Before setting your MMA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov

At UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo, McClure was all over Julia Avila as his top pick. The results: Avila knocked out Gina Mazany in the first round, and anybody who followed McClure's advice was poised for a profitable day. Now, McClure has set his sights Saturday's huge UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov card.


Top Picks

Curtis Blaydes
Bobby Green
Brianna Van Buren

Cappers Access

UFC (Sat) Curtis Blaydes -400
UFC (Sat) Josh Emmett +
UFC (Sat) Raquel Pennington -185
UFC (Sat) Lyman Good +
UFC (Sat) Roosevelt Roberts -250

Belmont Stakes (Race #10)

Courtesy of the Horse Racing Newtork on June 19.

At long last, the Belmont Stakes is Saturday, albeit with a much different feel as the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown and at a shorter distance of 1 1/8 miles.

Tiz the Law is the strong favorite, with a 6-5 morning line. Sole Volante is next at 9-2, followed by Dr Post at 5-1.

Here is how Horse Racing Nation's team is playing the Belmont Stakes, with free past performances available to help you come to your own conclusions.

Jarrod Horak
Winner: #9 Dr Post
Hit the board: #1 Tap It to Win, #8 Tiz the Law
Long shot: #3 Max PlayerA couple of pace scenarios are possible. Tap It To Win comes out from post No. 1 with the lead and never looks back, or he is pressured early and one of the stalkers prevails. Tiz the Law might be in the right spot behind the speed, and Dr Post should be perched just outside the favorite.
Todd Pletcher's lightly raced colt might be able to go right on by if he moves forward. Max Player is the upsetter. He showed promise in all three starts and has upside. Sole Volante and Farmington Road should be finishing and can be used underneath.
Wagers: #9 to win; exacta 1-3-9/8; trifecta 1-8-9/1-8-9/3; trifecta key 8/2-3-5; superfecta 1-9/1-8-9/1-2-3-8-9/1-2-3-4-5-8-9-10

Reinier Macatangay
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #4 Modernist, #10 Pneumatic
Long shot: #2 Sole VolanteAs shown in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1), Tiz the Law wants to run outside of horses. In this race, he drew Post 8 in a one-turn route, giving him the best chance to establish a comfortable position clear of traffic and pull off a popular win.
For value, Modernist and Pneumatic are both developing horses who could move forward. Sole Volante is not a threat to win, but he figures to pick off tired horses for a piece.

Ryan Dickey
Winner: #2 Sole Volante
Hit the board: #8 Tiz the Law, #5 Farmington Road
Long shot: #4 ModernistI expect a very hot early pace, and that sets up best for Sole Volante. Obviously Tiz the Law is the best on paper but will be an underlay of epic proportions. Using Sole Volante on top, and hoping Farmington Road follows that one to hit the board at a price. Using Modernist underneath as well.

Matt Shifman
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #2 Sole Volante, #1 Tap It to Win
Long shot: #9 Dr PostIf you're putting Tiz the Law on top then just play one exacta with your second choice. No sense reducing your profit margin with other combinations.

Laurie Ross
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #2 Sole Volante, #1 Tap It to Win
Long shot: #3 Max PlayerKey #8 over #2,#1 with #2,#1,#3, with #2,#1,#3,#10,#9,#4

Brian Brinkmeyer
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #1 Tap It to Win, #2 Sole Volante
Long shot: #3 Max PlayerAfter his last layoff, Tiz the Law returned in the Florida Derby with a solid performance in the Holy Bull. I see no reason that we won't see this same result in the Belmont Stakes against this field.
Tap It to Win and Sole Volante are returning very quickly, but their connections seem awfully confident that they will give Tiz the Law a serious challenge while Max Player is my sleeper crack the top three.

Candice Curtis
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #10 Pneumatic, #3 Max Player
Long shot: #4 ModernistThe race goes through #8 Tiz the Law. He is training like a beast, is best coming off a modest layoff, and is going one-turn at Belmont, where he ran one of his best races. He is deservedly the favorite. I'll build my TRI/SUPER tickets around him in 1st, with #10 Pneumatic and #2 Sole Volante in second, and #3 Max Player, #4 Modernist, #9 Dr. Post in 3rd/4th.
I'll have some WPS money on #4 Modernist and #10 Pneumatic since Mott & Asmussen have recent success in the Belmont Stakes and their charges will have value.

Jeffrey Byrnes
Winner: #10 Pneumatic
Hit the board: #8 Tiz the Law, #1 Tap It to Win
Long shot: #4 ModernistPneumatic is coming into the Belmont in good form. Fresh off a game 3rd place finish in the Matt Winn Stakes. His high cruising speed will put him with the leaders early on, but he will have to get a clean break to avoid being caught wide. Posted strong five furlong work two weeks ago, cutting to one turn could be the difference.
Tiz the Law is the class of the field. Winner of multiple G1s, including the Florida Derby last time out, he'll be stalking the leaders at the jump. He's already won going the one turn at Belmont Park. If he runs his race, he'll be tough to beat.
Tap It To Win, comes off a very sharp allowance victory 15 days ago. He went to the front and never looked back, nearly breaking the track record in the process. With the rail, I expect him to be in front early on, if he uses his speed to get the jump, he could be tough to catch.
Modernist posted a sharp five furlong work last weekend to confirm his spot in this race. He has speed and the ability to stalk, he has won at this distance multiple times, including the Risen Star early in February. If he can work out a good trip, and stay out of trouble, he's in for the upset chance. I will play 10-8-1-4 superfecta.

Mary Dixon Reynolds
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #1 Tap It to Win, #8 Tiz the Law
Long shot: #9 Dr Post
Everyone's ready for the first leg of the Triple Crown, and for the first time, it begins with the Belmont. Trained by Barclay Tagg and by Constitution, Tiz The Law is the one to beat. He's the only horse in the field with a Grade 1 victory and he's been firing on all cylinders this year. He also loves the track and the adjusted nine-furlong distance from its original 12 should serve him well.
Tap It To Win shouldn't be overlooked. Mark Casse always has his horses ready. If he wins, it will be his third Triple Crown win in a row. Casse won the Belmont last year with Sir Winston and the Preakness with War of Will.

Nick Costa
Winner: #8 Tiz the Law
Hit the board: #1 Tap It to Win, #9 Dr Post
Long shot: #4 ModernistTiz The Law would be undefeated if not for a boxed in trip in the slop at Churchill Downs last fall. The NY-bred easily took care of business in his two starts in Florida. He has won at this distance and on the Belmont surface. Far and above the most talented of the group.

Tap It To Win is coming off back-to-back wins, including a big score over this surface two weeks ago. Although, this is a different level of class, the speedy runner could take them a long way on the front-end.
Dr Post is a bit light on experience, with only 3 lifetime races, but he's progressing nicely and overcame adversity last out to win. Has successfully handled additional real estate in both starts this year, so the extra ground here appears viable. Retains the services of Belmont's leading rider.

Jeremy Plonk

1/ST Race of the Week: Acorn Stakes at Belmont Park

The Lead:
Belmont Stakes Day features 5 stakes on Saturday, including the kickoff to the 2020 Triple Crown in the main event. But the 3-year-old fillies will set the table in the 1-mile Acorn in Race 8, which kicks off the day's late pick 5 and also is a part of a middle pick 5 from Races 6-10 that includes 4 stakes.

​Field Depth:
PERFECT ALIBI is the field's only Grade 1 winner and also has won at the Grade 2 level. LUCREZIA is Grade 2-placed. The rest are rising in class. Given that PERFECT ALIBI's form all came against juveniles in 2019, declaring a discernible class edge isn't as obvious as it might seem. Class won't be the handicapping tool here.

Pace:
GAMINE brings rail speed from California, while GLASS CEILING, LUCREZIA and CASUAL should be in the next flight. The pace looks fair, but not fall-apart fast.

Our Eyes:
PERFECT ALIBI certainly has the credentials from her freshman campaign. But the Mark Casse trainee has been away since her fourth in the Nov. 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She's 4: 3-1-0 in 1-turn races and no doubt will be tough if she delivers on her 2019 form (which included a second in Belmont's Astoria). But according to 1/ST BET stats, the Casse barn is 9: 0-1-0 since 2014 with horses off 6-8 months in graded stakes at a mile or more. PERFECT ALIBI never ran particularly fast at 2 and her workouts now don't indicate a blaze in the works. I'll take a shot against her.

GAMINE has won both starts, a Santa Anita maiden sprint and an Oaklawn route allowance, with varying degrees of difficulty. She beat 3 rivals in her unveiling at 1-9 odds and was never in doubt as a $1.8 million purchase is supposed to look in that situation. The Oaklawn test was more stern against 11 runners. She wired the field and held on by a neck to defeat Speech, who since returned to finish second in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. GAMINE hasn't dazzled the eye in the morning since her Oaklawn trip, studying her XBTV.com library in training against an overmatched LA-bred maiden named Dodger in recent weeks. But Baffert has put her behind that runner and has tried to teach her some patience. Baffert runners who exited Oaklawn races returned to go a rousing 4: 3-1-0 at Santa Anita, including 2 stakes wins. From the rail under Belmont star John Velazquez, I suspect those morning patience lessons will be tossed to the wind. She should set the pace. Intra-race, I'll try to beat her. But if playing multi-race exotics, you'll want to include her and not be so brazen to lose a pick 4 or pick 5 by taking a big stand.

CASUAL has a monster Steve Asmussen legacy pedigree, sired by 2-time local Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Curlin and out of 2003 Acorn runner-up and eventual local Gallant Bloom winner Lady Tak. Like Gamine, she's 2-for-2 in her career over 2 different tracks, a maiden sprint at Oaklawn and a May 22 Churchill Downs allowance. She was very strong on the back end of 7 furlongs most recently, netting a 102 BRIS late pace figure. If she can track the speed, give his unbeaten filly a big chance to punch past in the stretch. Her millionaire mama started her career 5-for-5, and her $10 million-earning papa began 3-for-3 winning the 2007 Arkansas Derby in this spot in his form cycle.

Also with pedigree to play is the Shug McGaughey legacy filly PLEASANT ORB. She's merely sired by the barn's 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb and out of its Breeders' Cup Distaff-winning mare Pleasant Home, who won her signature race at Belmont Park no less. But PLEASANT ORB doesn't campaign for McGaughey; she's in the Barclay Tagg barn. And that outfit has Belmont Stakes heavy favorite Tiz the Law on the launching pad Saturday. I love when a barn gets all of its major players on time for the same major race date like this. PLEASANT ORB exits a better-than-it-looks third in a tougher-than-it-looks listed stakes at Gulfstream, which was won by multiple graded winner Tonalist's Shape. PLEASANT ORB checked into the clubhouse turn, then was stopped cold on the far turn before making a third run in the race. She flattened out in the lane once unable to reel in the heavy 1-to-2 favorite and hung late. A rider change to Manny Franco and a cleaner trip might do her wonders.

LUCREZIA was runner-up in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, a race that looked even better when its winner Swiss Skydiver traveled west to add the Grade 2 Santa Anita Derby to her resume. LUCREZIA has a pressing running style and from post 2 likely will have to work hard to keep up with GAMINE to her inside. She hasn't missed a beat training at Fair Hill in Maryland for Arnaud Delacour since that runner-up in March. She's come home very well in her last 2 routes, and patient Julien Leparoux suits her well.

The field also includes 17-1 Busher Stakes upsetter WATER WHITE for Rudy Rodriguez and class-rising GLASS CEILING for Danny Gargan. Neither trainer ever is an easy toss on the NYRA circuit and both exit victories.
​
Most Certain Exotics Contender: CASUAL is perfect so far, has a pedigree for greatness and should get a great trip just behind the speed with a chance to pounce.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: PLEASANT ORB was 19-1 last out when third in listed company and probably won't draw any more than fifth-choice in the field of 7. But she's a contender.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $90 win CASUAL. $10 exacta CASUAL over PLEASANT ORB.

Here are experts’ win, place and show picks:

Joe Drape, New York Times:
Dr Post, Tiz the Law, Modernist

Melissa Hoppert, New York Times:
Tiz the Law, Tap It to Win, Modernist

Andy Serling, NYRA:
Tiz the Law, Max Player, Sole Volante

Jarrod Horak, Horse Racing Nation:
Dr Post, Tap It To Win, Tiz the Law

Reinier Macatangay, Horse Racing Nation:
Tiz the Law, Modernist, Pneumatic

Ryan Dickey, Horse Racing Nation:
Sole Volante, Tiz the Law, Farmington Road

Laurie Ross, Horse Racing Nation:
Tiz the Law, Sole Volante, Tap It To Win
Candice Curtis, Horse Racing Nation:
Tiz the Law, Pneumatic, Max Player

Tim Reynolds, AP:
Tiz the Law, Tap It to Win, Sole Volante

Sporting News ~ Vinnie Iyer

Belmont Stakes picks:

With the Belmont Stakes replacing the Kentucky Derby as the first Triple Crown race and the Preakness as the shortest one, it sets up for a predictable result and no surprise on top, especially with the extra time to rest and prepare.

Tiz The Law has everything in his favor, with the right speed for the right length. Max Player is set up to sneakily emerge as a real challenger until right near the end. Tap It To Win will build enough momentum early to make sure he will at least settle for third.

• Win: Tiz The Law
• Place: Max Player
• Show: Tap It To Win

Aaron Halterman

Top Choice

#8 Tiz the Law – No matter how you slice it, this is Tiz the Law’s race to lose. He is the classiest and fastest horse in this race, and his Florida Derby (G1) effort was simply breathtaking. The biggest question mark could be the time off between races; after the Florida Derby, there wasn’t anywhere for him to run. However, each of his two wins this year came after two-month breaks, and his workouts suggest that he’s ready to roll, which is exactly what he should do if he shows up with his top effort.

Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers

#2 Sole Volante – If you’re looking to upset the heavy favorite, then this could be your horse. He comes into the event razor-sharp, winning a tough allowance race at Gulfstream Park just 10 days ago under a hand ride and has a fitness edge over the big favorite, which could come into play if the race gets tight. Sole Volante’s biggest problem is that he is pace-dependent, which means he will need fast fractions from the front-runners in order for him to have a chance. With the right setup, he can pull off the upset.

#1 Tap It to Win – This up-and-comer put on a show last time out at Belmont Park, dominating what looked like a solid allowance field by 5 lengths. His early speed is his most dangerous weapon here, especially since the other serious win threats come from off the pace. They will all have to run him down in the stretch, so it will be ultra-important to watch the early fractions. If he gets out to an easy lead, they may not be able to catch him.
Exotic Plays

#10 Pneumatic – We’ll see if this Steve Asmussen trainee can continue progressing after finishing third in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) last time out. That was his first race against stakes company, so it was good to see that he was competitive against a few nice horses. He still needs to show improvement here in order to have any chance at winning, though, which is why we put him in the exotic plays category. Another third place-type of performance would be a solid step in the right direction.

#4 Modernist – This colt is never going to be described as flashy, but he seems to be steadily improving with each start. His biggest win came in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) two starts back, where he won in front-running fashion. He then came back to run a solid third in the Louisiana Derby (G2), which was a nice way to back up his Risen Star upset. His chances of winning here seem slim, but he could stay around for a minor award with the right trip.

Party Crashers

#9 Dr Post – This Todd Pletcher trainee showed a ton of class in his last race, winning the Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park despite a horrendous trip. That kind of trip cannot happen again here if he wants to have success, but it was nice to see him fight through adversity. He has every right to keep improving, but will it be enough to make some noise at big odds in this spot? Perhaps not, but he is the most logical double-digit upsetter.

Throw Outs

#5 Farmington Road – He seems to be the ultimate underneath type of horse who clunks up late for third or fourth. Until we see something a bit more flashy from him, that looks like his ceiling. It will be tough for him to even hit the board here while facing several other solid closers.

#3 Max Player – He comes into race after not running since February 1, when he won the Withers Stakes (G3) in impressive fashion. Still, we need to see a little more before we support him in this much tougher spot, especially as he returns from a long layoff.

#6 Fore Left – A very late addition to the race that was announced the day before the draw, his most recent start saw him win a prep in Dubai for the UAE Derby (G2). He was originally aiming for the 7-furlong Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) on the undercard before changing at the last second. His early speed could play a factor in the outcome.

#7 Jungle Runner – He will easily be the longest shot on the board after several poor efforts this season. If he makes any positive impact in this race, it would be the ultimate surprise.

Matt Shifman

Tap It to Win [ML 6-1 – Tapit – M. Casse/J. Velazquez – 5: 2-1-0 - $124,672 – 0 Derby points] Newly elected Hall of Fame inductee Mark Casse made this colt a more recent addition to the Belmont Stakes field after he overwhelmed an allowance field going a mile and a sixteenth in New York. He took the race on the front end with a lead of more than seven lengths at the stretch call and was geared down late to win by five at the wire. The race was fast and earned the winner a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. So, he will wheel right back in 16 days in a race that is just 110 yards longer and stays in the one-turn configuration. Casse goes for his third straight victory in Triple Crown races after winning last year’s Preakness with War of Will and then the Belmont Stakes with Sir Winston. Live longshot

Sole Volante [ML 9-2 – Karakontie – P. Biancone/L. Panici – 6: 4-1-1 - $266,310 – 30 Derby points (#16)] Instead of another typical morning workout, trainer Patrick Biancone opted to run Sole Volante in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park for his final preparation for the big race at Belmont. It turned out to be a very good field of six including the stakes winners Ete Indien and Shivaree. Sole Volante rallied from last almost nine lengths behind to win the one-turn mile by nearly a length. Remember that he won the Sam F. Davis (G3) and was second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Use underneath

Max Player [ML 15-1 – Honor Code – L. Rice/J. Rosario – 3: 2-1-0 - $173,500 – 10 Derby points (#34)] Since his off the pace victory in the Withers (G3) in March, trainer Linda Rice changed plans with this son of Honor Code a couple times. The Wood Memorial got cancelled and when the date was announced for the Belmont Stakes, Rice decided to skip the Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill Downs and stay home. What that means is that Max Player will try the first leg of the Triple Crown coming off a more than three-month layoff. On the positive side, he has not missed a beat in training for Rice. Ultimately, this is a tough task for a horse that was not fast enough for this field the last time we saw him run. Toss

Modernist [ML 15-1 – Uncle Mo – B. Mott/J. Alvarado – 5: 2-0-2 - $388,800 – 70 Derby points (#7)] Following his maiden breaker at Aqueduct in January, Modernist made a splash on the original Derby trail down at Fair Grounds. He pressed the pace and won the Risen Star (G2) and then was third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The level of competition of those New Orleans prep races is frequently called into question and this son of Uncle Mo will have trouble staying with the early runners from this field. The connections waited until the last minute to decide to try this Triple Crown race. Toss

Farmington Road [ML 15-1 – Quality Road – Todd Pletcher/J. Castellano – 6: 1-2-0 - $110,000 – 15 Derby points (#26)] One of two runners for trainer Todd Pletcher who was last seen finishing fourth in the Nadal division of the Arkansas Derby. The late running colt might prefer the big sweeping turn at Belmont Park because he can start his closing move early and may be able to sustain it given the pace set-up. Bottom line is that he only has a maiden victory to his credit. Toss

Fore Left [ML 30-1 – Twirling Candy – D. O’Neill/J. Ortiz – 9: 4-0-2 -

$355,902 – 0 Derby points] For Reddam Racing, he was part of the band that Doug O’ Neill sent to Dubai during the winter. The son of Twirling Candy was successful and won the 2,000 UAE Guineas (G3) in February. As a 2-year-old, he won his first two starts including the Tremont at Belmont Park. In California, he could not compete with the top juveniles in two Grade 1 races. He had been expected to run in the Woody Stephens (G1) on the Belmont undercard. We have seen horses win on the lead at Meydan and often were not able to transfer that form to America. Still, he may be a factor on the front end, though he is unlikely to remain in contention in the end. Toss

Jungle Runner [ML 50-1 – Candy Ride – S. Asmussen/R. Gutierrez – 8: 2-0-0 - $110,415 – 0 Derby points] Owner Calumet Farm is always willing to take a shot in the biggest races around the country. This guy’s best form goes back to last year at Remington Park where he broke his maiden and then followed it with a stakes victory. As a 3-year-old, Jungle Runner has not been able to duplicate those results. Two starts on the Derby trail at Oaklawn park in the Smarty Jones and the Arkansas Derby (G1) produced eighth place finishes. Toss

Tiz the Law [ML 6-5 – Constitution – B. Tagg/M. Franco – 5: 4-0-1 - $945,300 – 122 Derby points (#1)] Tiz the Law has been on top of most of the Kentucky Derby contender lists since he won the Holy Bull (G3) and the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park by a combined 7 ¼ lengths. Tiz the Law will enter the Belmont after a layoff of almost three months. In that time, Kentucky Derby winning trainer Barclay Tagg sent him to the track for nine official breezes with all but the most recent two happening in Florida. He won his only start at Belmont last year in the Champagne (G1). The Sackatoga Stable runner is the only Grade 1 winner in the field. He figures to be an odds-on favorite. Top Choice

Dr Post [ML 5-1 – Quality Road – Todd Pletcher/I. Ortiz Jr. – 3: 2-0-0 - $76,635 – 0 Derby points] Dr Post is one of the horses that has benefited from the delay of the Triple Crown series. Lightly raced with just three career starts, he returned to the races in March and won both of his starts impressively at Gulfstream Park. The $400,000 yearling purchase had to overcome a couple of trip challenges in his April victory in the Unbridled Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth. This is the kind of horse with the potential to make big improvement from race to race. Use in trifecta

Pneumatic [ML 8-1 – Uncle Mo – Steve Asmussen/R. Santana Jr. – 3: 2-0-1 - $101,850 – 10 Derby points (#37)] This is a colt who prefers to be part of the early pace. He moved from an allowance victory at Oaklawn to a third-place finish in the Matt Winn and as a result his connections made him a late nominee to the Triple Crown series. Use underneath

Belmont Stakes Prop Bets

First letter of the winning horse's name

N-Z -550
A-M +325

The later alphabet is dominant here with Tiz The Law, Tap It To Win, Sole Volante as the three top contenders based on odds. Go N-Z, with either Dr Post or Max Player unikely to pull the upset.

Will there be an inquiry after the race?

No -1200
Yes +700

No is the easy choice. This is the first Triple Crown race with extensive preparation behind it, so everything should be run cleanly and there's also great weather predicted, mid-70s for post time with no precipitation in the forecast.

Winning starting gate in the 2020 Belmont Stakes

6-10 -210
1-5 +160

Given the limited success of horses operating from post No. 7 or higher in the Belmont Stakes, here's a chance to take a chance on either Tap It To Win from No. 1, the most successful post, or Sole Volante from No. 2. The -210 is all predicated on Tiz The Law winning from No. 8.

Margin of victory

Under 1 1/2 lengths -125
Over 1 1/2 lengths -105

Whether it is Tiz The Law, a calculated speed horse, or someone edging him at the end, this figures to be a close-enough shortened race with no endurance pressure on the horses. Go with the Under.


Number of words in winning horse's name

3 or 4 words -225
2 words +175
1 word +600

By going with 3 or 4 words, you're basically boxing Tiz The Law and Tap It To Win, because every other horse in the field has shorter names. Sole Volante and Dr Post make 2 words intriuging as an upset, however. 1 words means you're banking on Pneumatic vs. Modernist.

Will a horse go wire-to-wire?

No -800
Yes +550

Tiz The Law is a complete horse in a field with horses that are either fast starters or frantic closers. That said, he will be more balanced and versatile, not expending energy to hold a meaningless lead out of the gate and saving his best for last. Go with the No as the no-brainer.

Will the track record for 1 1/8th miles be broken?

No -2500
Yes +800

Tiz the Law can be a great horse, but not that great. Go with the heavy favorite of No.

Will there be a 2020 Triple Crown winner?

No -800
Yes +550

American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) have provided two Triple Crown winners in five years after a long drought. In a regular Triple Crown schedule, Tiz The Law might have been set up nicely to follow in their tracks. But the long layoff until the Kentucky Derby creates a shaky unknown, so go with the No.

Winning time in the 2020 Belmont Stakes

Over 1:48.5 -135
Under 1.48.5 +105

Tiz The Law won the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby at 1:50 on March 28. Tap It To Win, Sole Volante and Dr Post have all yet to run at that distance. Go with the Over, as Tiz The Law will be more about the result vs. overheating with a long haul ahead.

Mike Curry

Belmont

No reason to get cute here — Tiz the Law (#8) looks like the class of the field and should be able to work out an ideal stalking trip just in behind a couple of speed horses. A top play.

Sporting News ~ Vinnie Iyer

Belmont Stakes picks:

With the Belmont Stakes replacing the Kentucky Derby as the first Triple Crown race and the Preakness as the shortest one, it sets up for a predictable result and no surprise on top, especially with the extra time to rest and prepare.

Tiz The Law has everything in his favor, with the right speed for the right length. Max Player is set up to sneakily emerge as a real challenger until right near the end. Tap It To Win will build enough momentum early to make sure he will at least settle for third.

Win: Tiz The Law
Place: Max Player
Show: Tap It To Win

Eddie Olczyk’s Belmont Stakes Picks & Spot Plays

June 19, 2020

EDDIE OLCZYK'S BELMONT STAKES PICKS & ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS: This Belmont Stakes has pretty much everything you can throw at it – all different running styles, layoffs vs. short rest, and horses exiting races from locally at Belmont Park to the far reaches of Meydan in Dubai. Even out of the mile and one-eighth chute, it’s still the Belmont Stakes. The key, as often it is, will be the pace. When you hear NBC announcer Larry Collmus call out the six-furlong split, take notice. If it’s 1:09-and-change, that’s when I think the off-the-pace types could roll late.

MAIN CONTENDERS: TIZ THE LAW is a deserving favorite and should get a perfect trip. Look for him to be fourth or fifth early, but not far off of the pace. Trainer Barclay Tagg has slowed him down in his works recently and I really appreciate that. With FORE LEFT and MODERNIST competing for the front with rail-drawn TAPIT TO WIN, it should favor the favorite’s finishing kick. DR POST figures to be in a similar spot following TIZ THE LAW for leading local jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. SOLE VOLANTE will be coming from farther back and benefits more the faster they go early.

VALUE PLAYS: FARMINGTON ROAD has a steady running style and will be the longer price of the two Pletcher trainees. He could be as much as twice the price as DR POST and adds value to the exotics.

$100 Wagering Strategy

- $10 Trifecta Part-Wheel: TIZ THE LAW with DR POST with SOLE VOLANTE, FARMINGTON ROAD ($20)
- $10 Trifecta Part-Wheel: TIZ THE LAW with SOLE VOLANTE, FARMINGTON ROAD with DR POST ($20
- $10 Exacta Box: TIZ THE LAW and DR POST ($20)
- $40 Exacta: TIZ THE LAW over DR POST ($40)

Eddie’s Top 4 Picks

1. TIZ THE LAW
2. DR POST
3. SOLE VOLANTE
4. FARMINGTON ROAD


EDDIE OLCZYK’S BELMONT STAKES DAY SPOT PLAYS

Race 4 – Pennine Ridge Stakes: #7 Famished (5-1)
Despite an 0-3 record on turf, he’s run very well on the grass. Outside post positions and trips have been his kryptonite. This one-turn mile gives him a better chance to deal with the widest draw, though only 7 are entered. Manny Franco moved too soon aboard him in his last race on turf. Go off of his Palm Beach effort, and with a better trip under Irad Ortiz Jr., he has a heck of a chance. I’m hoping for 6-1 or more, but the Irad Factor almost certainly keeps him under 10-1.

Race 8 – Acorn Stakes: #5 Glass Ceiling (20-1)
Take a look at this longshot price. She was impressive in her Gulfstream Park allowance victory May 16 in which the runner-up has returned to hit the board in stakes company. Glass Ceiling is another nice claim by trainer Danny Gargan and will provide value in a race that has plenty of early pace in it. She’s tactical and won’t be on the lead, nor does she appear to need to be.

Marco D Angelo

Race 10 - Belmont Park Selections 8-4-2-10 Top Choice #8 Tiz The Law (6-5) No Value Betting W/P Long shot #4 Modernist (15-1) $10 Win-Place Show #8 Tiz The Law is the horse to beat and will be the heavy favorite. There is no value betting him but we will throw $10 WPS on #4 Modernist as he is our Long Shot Selection in this race. Belmont Stakes Selections Betting Recommendations My approach to the Belmont is to attack the Exacta and Trifecta. Good Luck today all of my Exacta and Trifecta bets will have a total investment of $355. Three years ago in the Kentucky Derby we bet $390 and returned $9069 lets hope for another big score this year. I want to Thank everyone who has followed along with me. This is exactly how I am betting today. Trifecta Wagers Total Bets = $157 $2 Trifecta 8 with 2-4-9-10- 1-2-3-4-5-9-10 = $48 $1 Trifecta 2-4-9-10 with 8 with 1-2-3-4-5-9-10 = $24 50 cent Trifecta 1-2-3-4-5-9-10 with 8 with 2-4-9-10 = $12 50 cent Trifecta 2-4-8 with 2-4-8-10 with 1-2-3-4-5-8-9-10 = $27 $1 Trifecta 8 with 2-4 with 1-2-3-4-5-9-10 = $12 $2 Trifecta 8 with 2-4-10 with 2-4-9-10 = $18 $2 Trifecta 8 with 2-4 with 1-2-4-9-10 = $16 Exacta Wagers Total Bets = $198 $20 Exacta 8 with 2-4-10 = $60 $6 Exacta 2-4-10 with 8 = $18 $10 Exacta 8 with 1-3-5-9 = $40 $4 Exacta 1-3-5-9 with 8 = $16 $2 Exacta Box 2-4-9-10 = $24 $3 Exacta 2-4 with 2-4-8-9-10 = $24 $2 Exacta 2-4-8-9-10 with 2-4 = $16