Sunday Service Play Thread 06/21/2020

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Mike McClure

NASCAR

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and the Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in a bet for Hamlin at 10-1 for his win at Miami.


Bets I've placed as of 11:00 AM EST 6/16

Joey Logano +1000
Brad Keselowski +1000
Chase Elliott +1200
Kevin Harvick +1400
Kurt Busch +1800
Aric Almirola +2500

H2H Matchups

Chase Elliott +105 vs. Denny Hamlin

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Joey Logano (10-1)
2. Chase Elliott (12-1)
3. Kevin Harvick (14-1)
4. Brad Keselowski (10-1)
5. Denny Hamlin (10-1)
6. Kyle Busch (12-1)
7. Ryan Blaney (14-1)
8. Clint Bowyer (20-1)
9. Aric Almirola (25-1)
10. Kurt Busch (18-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11. Martin Truex Jr.
12. Tyler Reddick
13. Jimmie Johnson
14. Alex Bowman
15. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
16. Ryan Newman
17. William Byron
18. Erik Jones
19. Matt Kenseth
20. Christopher Bell
21. Matt DiBenedetto
22. Austin Dillon
23. Cole Custer
24. Bubba Wallace
25. Ryan Preece
26. Ty Dillon
27. Michael McDowell
28. Daniel Suarez
29. John H. Nemechek
30. Chris Buescher
31. Corey Lajoie
32. Reed Sorenson
33. Timmy Hill
34. Brennan Poole
35. Garrett Smithley
36. Joey Gase
37. Quin Houff
38. JJ Yeley

My Pick 6 Ticket Sunday on Closing Day at Santa Anita

June 20, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

It’s Mandatory Pick Six Payoff Day as Santa Anita closes out its season on Sunday.
Races 7-12 have stakes offerings in the Melair and G3 American, along with a trio of maiden races and an optional claimer.
Here’s a capsule look at each race, along with a $86.40 suggested ticket.

7th Race (Melair Stakes, 6:30 p.m. ET)
BIG SWEEP is unbeaten in two sprints and seeks to take her act around two turns. Trainer Mark Glatt is cruising along at 33-percent. Her latest was in the Echo Eddie Stakes and she has finished well in both race. No reason to think she can’t stretch out. SMILING SMIRLEE sprinted to a win in the Evening Jewel Stakes last out and won going a mile two races back. WARREN’S SHOWTIME has the best chance at a closing move as this pace should be lively.

8th Race (Maiden Claiming, 7 p.m. ET)
The big players come from the outside and each is taking a drop in class for this maiden-claimer at a mile on the turf. DANCEFORMUNNY has taken on much better and likely will be much closer to the early action than she has been. SAPORI GIRL has had 10 chances and is coming closer to getting the maiden win. The 3rd-place finish in her latest could translate into a win here.

9th Race (Maiden Claiming, 7:30 p.m. ET)
COSMIC COWGIRL showed speed in maiden special races and that usually translates into more endurance with a class drop. Will not want to give up the rail and should be a strong player throughout. WITH THIS VOW was in good position for a half-mile of her debut and then faded. She is another that can improve with the step down the ladder as well as moving up with the benefit of having had a start. SAVING SOPHIE has been running two turns, gets back to a sprint and will likely be rolling late.

10th Race (Gr. 3 American Stakes, 8 p.m. ET)
The American Stakes looks the most difficult race in the sequence, and a foursome are represented on the sequence.
JASIKAN makes his 1st of the year and has done little wrong in the U.S. starts after beginning his career in Ireland. He won the Oceanside at Del Mar last year and ended the second with a 3rd in the G3 LaJolla. Always seems to be moving well late. CLEOPATRA’S STRIKE was 2nd in the G2 San Marcos and G2 San Gabriel in his last two and deserves support. SHARP SAMURAI just missed in the G2 Del Mar Mile in August and has trained exceptionally well for his return. BOWIE’S HERO has no shortage of class, having won the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile and the G1 Shoemaker Mile during the past two years.

11th Race (Maiden Special Weight, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Which Baffert do you like?
Trainer Bob is always difficult to beat in maiden races, and that problem is compounded as he has two in this one. PROVOCATION makes her career debut, and the Into Mischief gal has trained well. And getting Mike Smith aboard (30 percent) hurts nothing, either. HIMIKO started once, and it was an unsuccessful voyage over the turf. The American Pharoah filly has drilled well since then, and the $1 million weanling purchase is likely to make a huge improvement from her 1st start to this.

12th Race (Optional Claiming, 9 p.m. ET)
Veteran optional claimers on the turf end the day and sequence, and three of these appear to have an edge over the rest. OF GOOD REPORT lost by a nose at this level last out and has taken 4 of 11 on grass. Galloping mischief return off a 14-month layoff with a closing 4th in a fast sprint. She won’t have to improve much to be a strong player in the closing yards. SUCCEEDANDSURPASS was a closing 3rd at this level in his 1st of the year and was 2nd in the G2 Twilight Derby at Santa Anita last year.

Rainbow Pick Six Sunday at Santa Anita:
7) #1 Big Sweet, #2 Smiling Shirlee, #6 Warren’s Showtime.
8) #10 Danceformunny, #11 Sapori Girl.
9) #1 Cosmic Cowgirl, #3 With This Vow, #6 Saving Sophie.
10) #2 Jasikan, #3 Cleopatra’s Strike, #5 Sharp Samurai, #8 Bowies Hero.
11) #2 Provocation, #5 Himiko.
12) #3 Of Good Report, #11 Galloping Mischief, #12 Succeedandsurpass.
20-cent suggested ticket: 1-2-6 with 10-11 with 1-3-6 with 2-3-5-8 with 2-5 with 3-11-12 ($86.40)