Sal Johnson
GOLF
A media legend and consummate golf insider, Johnson absolutely nailed the Travelers Championship last year. Johnson promoted 50-1 long shot Chez Reavie as a potential winner, noting his game was a perfect fit for TPC River Highlands. The result: Reavie cruised to a four-stroke victory, finishing 17-under for his first PGA title in 11 years.
The Travelers Championship
The PGA Tour has gone from Texas to South Carolina and now to Connecticut. For the rest of the year, events will be played on Northeastern-style courses with the exceptions of the PGA Championship in San Francisco and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude in Memphis, Tenn.
The past two weeks, the long hitters have been at a disadvantage. Despite that, Bryson DeChambeau has done well. He finished T-3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T-8 at the RBC Heritage, playing those rounds in 31 under.
This week, DeChambeau has a chance to win on a course where he can use his length as an advantage. He also finished in the top 10 his last two times out at TPC River Highlands.
Another long hitter, Justin Thomas also played well the first two weeks. He tied for 10th at the Charles Schwab and finished T-8 at Harbour Town. He should love being able to rear back with the driver this week.
The big question will be the other long hitters, like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka. I see all of them doing well at the Travelers.
Of the four, Koepka seems to be shaping up the best. He shot four rounds under par at Colonial and tied for 32nd. At Harbour Town, he finished seventh with rounds of 67-66-68-65.
He got off to a slow start and had to make an emergency visit to Butch Harman before the Players Championship. Harman worked his magic, spotting some minor flaws and giving him a boost of confidence.
Koepka doesn't plan to play next week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he wants to be playing well as he takes some time off.
Among the players who come into the Travelers with momentum is Webb Simpson, who won the RBC Heritage. He tied for eighth at the Travelers in 2017 and was T-5 in 2013. He played the par 4s in 13 under at Harbour Town, and that bodes well for the Travelers.
You also have to like Abraham Ancer, who finished second at Harbour Town and was T-14 at Colonial. For his last eight rounds, he is 31 under par, the same score as DeChambeau. Ancer led Greens in Regulation at Harbour Town and played the par 4s in 10 under, which are great signs heading into TPC River Highlands, where he was T-8 last year.
Another player who has been impressive the past two weeks is Justin Rose, who was helped greatly by the break. He tied for third at Colonial with rounds of 63-69-68-66 and tied for 14th at Harbour Town with rounds of 70-67-66-65. So he went under par in all eight rounds, going 30 under, and on a course like TPC River Highlands he should do well. Rose hasn't played at the Travelers since 2013, but in eight starts he was third in 2005, T-9 in 2007 and 2010, and in 2013 he was T-13. We have to keep Rose at the top of our list of favorites.
J.T. Poston tied for 10th at Colonial and was T-8 at Harbour Town, going 28 under in those eight rounds. Poston is hot, but he hasn't made a cut in three starts at TPC River Highlands.
One surging player who hasn't had that problem is Joaquin Niemann, who was T-5 at The Travelers last year. Niemann tied for 32nd at Colonial and was T-5 at the RBC Heritage, and he has been explosive, shooting 63 once and 65 three times over the past two events.
Sergio Garcia missed the cut at the Charles Schwab, but he was T-5 at Harbour Town. In his six rounds, he was under par in five and shot par in the other, so we should keep an eye on him this week. He finished his week at Harbour Town with rounds of 65-65-65. Like Rose, he tends to play more in Europe this time of year and has not played the Travelers since 2015 (T-25th). The previous year, he finished second, a stroke back as Kevin Streelman shot 64 in the final round.
A past Travelers champion who could be coming into his own is Bubba Watson. He has won the Travelers three times (2010, 2015 and 2018), and he finished T-7 at Colonial and T-52 at Harbour Town. The finish was good at the RBC Heritage when you consider he shot 73 in the third round, his only round over 69 the last two weeks. He could knock on the door again this week.
Paul Casey is playing for the first time since the break, and he has been great at the Travelers. In five starts, he is 58 under par and finished T-5 last year, T-2 in 2018, T-5 in 2017, T-17 in 2016 and second in 2015. Before the break, he made the cut in all seven starts with a best finish of 11th, in his last start at the WGC-Mexico Championship. Although he hasn't played recently, you have to consider him this week.
Patrick Cantlay also is making his return from the break, and he has tied for 15th in his last two starts at the Travelers. I am a bit apprehensive about him because of his history of back issues. He also took a month off in February for a surgery to correct a deviated septum, so it's best to see how he is physically.
TPC River Highlands
This will be the 68th edition of the Travelers, and the course is a different type of TPC course. It has been reconfigured from the traditional style, but it still has some of those traits.
Most of the greens are small and raised or crowned, making it a scrambler's delight. But in changing the old-style course into a TPC, they changed a layout that was short and tight to a bomber's delight that makes accuracy much less important.
Since the event moved to TPC River Highlands in 1988, 25 of the 36 tournaments have been decided by either one stroke or in a playoff.
In past years, as many as 80,000 fans would come out for the weekend, there will be no gallery on the course again this week.
Keys to winning
The most important thing at TPC River Highlands is that the course is very forgiving. You don't have to kill too many brain cells to find your way around it. If you drive it long and reasonably straight, you can win.
Just look at the roll-call of past champions -- guys like Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, Kenny Perry, Phil Mickelson, Kevin Streelman, Marc Leishman and J.J. Henry -- and it's loaded with guys who hit it a long way.
Making a lot of birdies is important, along with scrambling. The last two winners -- Chez Reavie last year and Bubba Watson the year before -- excelled in this stat, with Reavie ranking second in scrambling last year and Watson was No. 1 in 2018.
You also should look for players who score well on par 4s. River Highlands has only two par 5s, with 12 par 4s, and the past six champions have played the par 4s double digits under par.
Putting also can be overlooked, but those who putt well at River Highlands usually do very well.
√ Hitting it far is more important than accuracy, with 12 of the last 20 champions ranking in the top-13 in Driving Distance. Only seven winners have been in the top 10 in Driving Accuracy the past 20 years.
√ Of the last 15 champions, eight were in the top five in Total Putts, and all but one were in the top 13.
√ TPC River Highlands is a rare venue where hitting greens is not critical to winning. Since 2001, only two of the 19 champions have been in the top-five in Greens in Regulation, while 13 were outside the top seven.
√ Scrambling is crucial here. Winner Chez Reavie was second in getting it up and down on 15 of the 18 greens he missed last year.
√ Playing well on the 12 par 4s is very important, with Reavie going 13 under on those holes last year.
One of these three should win
1. Justin Rose
√ T-3 in Fort Worth and T-14 at Harbour Town and is 30 under par. Has been close to perfect.
√ Hasn't played at TPC River Highlands since 2013. Finished third in 2005, T-9 in 2007 and '10 and T-13 in 2013.
√ Is T-34 in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 32nd in Par Breakers for the year. He has been showing his game is built to win again.
2. Bryson DeChambeau
√ Was T-3 at Colonial and T-8 at Harbour Town, both courses that don't reward his approach.
√ TPC River Highlands couldn't be better for his game. He was T-8 last year and T-9 in 2018.
√ Is seventh in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 13th in Greens in Regulation, fifth in scrambling, 10th in Par Breakers and T-4 in scoring on par 4s. He could have a great week in Hartford.
3. Brooks Koepka
√ His game seems to get better each time he plays. In his two starts since the break, he has been in the 60s all eight rounds, and he finished seventh at the RBC Heritage. He could go into overdrive this week.
√ He was T-57 last year at Travelers, and his best finish was T-9 in 2016.
√ Forget what his stats are, because they mean nothing when you look at how much better his game has been.
Best of the Rest
4. Justin Thomas
√ Was T-10 at Colonial and T-8 at Harbour Town, going 28 under over the eight rounds. If he can erase that one bad round per event, he'll be a winner.
√ Hasn't been that impressive at TPC River Highlands, except in 2016 when he was T-3, but maybe that is a sign that he can do well.
√ Is third in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 12th in Greens in Regulation, second in Par Breakers and third in par 4 scoring.
5. Abraham Ancer
√ Was second last week and T-14 at the Charles Schwab, playing them in 31 under par. His year has been one of consistency, and he was runner-up at the American Express. He is knocking on the door, and he will hoist a trophy soon.
√ Was T-8 last year at the Travelers, opening with a 64 and closing with a 63.
√ Is 12th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, sixth in scrambling and T-26 in par 4s, all of great stats for TPC River Highlands.
6. Webb Simpson
√ Stunned many by missing the cut the previous week at the Charles Schwab, but he made up for it in a big way by winning at the RBC Heritage.
√ Was T-8 at Travelers in 2017 and T-5 in 2013. Only thing to worry about is if he is exhausted after winning at Harbour Town.
√ Is 14th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, T-10 in Greens in Regulation, seventh in Scrambling, first in Par Breakers and first in par 4 scoring. He could have a great week in Hartford.
7. Bubba Watson
√ Has shown some good finishes in 2020, with T-6 at the Farmers, T-3 at Phoenix and T-7 at Charles Schwab. He played well at the RBC Heritage except for a third-round 73. In his last eight rounds, he is 23 under par.
√ The Travelers has become his little annuity. With three wins, along with a runner-up and a fourth, he has won close to $5 million.
√ His stats have been reasonable, as he is 11th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 59th in scrambling, 19th in Strokes Gained Putting and T-22 in scoring on the par 4s.
8. Sergio Garcia
√ He is the hardest player to judge. He's up one minute, like his T-5 at the RBC Heritage, and down the next minute, like his missed cut at the Charles Schwab.
√ Not a regular at the Travelers and hasn't played it since 2015, but he was runner-up in 2014.
√ Is fifth in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, but the rest of his game has been poor, which is why he is so up-and-down.
Players you have to consider
9. Paul Casey
√ He always has done well at River Highlands. In five starts, he has only finished lower than fifth once, when he was T-17 in 2015. He has finished second twice and T-5 twice. In 20 rounds, he is 58 under par as he has been in the 60s 17 times.
√ Has not played since Mexico, when he finished 11th.
√ Is 18th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 29th in Greens in Regulation. His biggest problem is scrambling and putting, so maybe the break helped.
10. Joaquin Niemann
√ Watch him closely, because he could be peaking this week. He was T-32 at Colonial and T-5 at Harbour Town.
√ In his only start at the Travelers, he tied for fifth last year with rounds of 69-65-69-66.
√ Is 21st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 18th in Greens in Regulation, T-49 in Par Breakers. He needs to get better on and around the greens.
11. Gary Woodland
√ It's a course he should dominate, but in four starts his best finish was T-20. Maybe this week will be different.
√ Was ninth at the Charles Schwab and T-62 at the RBC Heritage, but we know he has the potential to be a lot better
√ Is 30th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, sixth in Greens in Regulation, 11th in Par Breakers and T-15 in par 4 scoring, and all of these show he could have a strong week.
Their games are in flux
12. Rory McIlroy
√ Has played twice at the Travelers, finishing T-12 in 2018 and T-17 in 2017.
√ His game has been great in the first three rounds, but he struggles on the final day. At Colonial, he shot 74 in the final round, and he shot 70 at RBC Heritage.
√ He has great stats, but if you struggle in the final round, you're not going to be able to win.
13. Jon Rahm
√ Missed the cut at Charles Schwab and was T-33 at RBC Heritage.
√ Hasn't played well at Travelers, finishing T-25 in 2016 and T-64 in 2015. The course doesn't seem to be up his alley.
14. Dustin Johnson
√ His game has been off, as he missed the cut at the Charles Schwab and was T-17 at Harbour Town.
√ In three starts at the Travelers, his best was T-31 in his last start in 2014. The course hasn't inspired him, and he is still working to find something. He won't find it this week.
√ Struggling with every part of his game, has been more accurate off the tee but his putting has been worst than in past years.
Be wary of them
15. Jordan Spieth
√ Showed some promise in his first three rounds at Colonial, but regressed with 71 in the final round. That spilled over to Harbour Town, where he shot 75-69 over the weekend.
√ He won the first year he played at the Travelers, but he was T-42 in 2018 and missed the cut last year.
√ His game is not showing improvement as he tries to find his form from 2015.
16. Patrick Cantlay
√ Was T-15 at Travelers in 2018 and '19, so he can play OK on the course.
√ Making his first start since the break, and we wonder why he didn't play at Heritage on a course where he dominates.
√ He hasn't done well since finishing fourth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
17. J.T. Poston
√ He was going great as he finished T-10 at the Charles Schwab and T-8 at the RBC Heritage.
√ He has really struggled at TPC River Highlands, missing the cut in all three starts. It just doesn't seem to be the place for him.
