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Thread: If All of MLB is Tested Soon, Get Ready for Huge Positive Numbers

  1. #1 If All of MLB is Tested Soon, Get Ready for Huge Positive Numbers 
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    No update on where things stand after the weekend, which makes you wonder if the situation is really dire: maybe the players are being told behind the scenes that if they reject the 60-game offer, Rob Manfred doesn’t actually have the necessary ownership votes to mandate a season.

    At which point, MLB would say they couldn’t agree on health and safety after the other outbreaks, and there’s just not enough time, and the season is toast. It would be framed as a pandemic decision, and not the financial decision it actually was. I’ve been taught over the past few months to be overly pessimistic.

    I was thinking last night about the 40-ish positive COVID tests that have been reported from MLB camps in the past week, which sent things into a bit of a tailspin. It’s an alarming raw number given that it started (presumably) with symptomatic folks seeking out a test.

    But then I started down the road of wondering if it was actually an alarmingly large number, or actually what you’d expect to see given the spread of this virus (i.e., not really related to “baseball”, and instead just related to “living in the United States right now”). No conclusions here, it was just something I wondered about, since I’m in the business of processing, unpacking, and sharing information with appropriate context.

    But that, in turn, got me thinking about an even bigger question: what’s going to happen when you have nearly 3000 people (40-man players, extra players, and personnel) getting to Spring Training Part Two and being prophylactically tested, regardless of symptoms. Even if the positive test rate is something small like 3%, you’re going to be talking about a raw positive test number that could easily get into the triple digits. I’m not sure the public has been prepared for that, and the way the media is going to cover it – like, it’s going to be a “holy shit!” moment for the headlines when 100+ MLB players and personnel “suddenly” have COVID-19 (regardless of whether they are symptomatic or not, and regardless of the fact that testing everyone prophylactically would yield huge numbers of positives anywhere, that’s how the stories will read).

    I’m really not sure MLB has prepared itself for what that public messaging is going to look like, or prepared themselves to explain what those numbers mean, relative to health and safety, relative to the rest of the country, relative to how any one of us might be carrying this thing around and not know it. No answers or conclusions here, it’s just something I’ve started to realize is going to be a serious issue – from a “real information” standpoint – when and if players show up.

    And, of course, none of that is speaking to the ACTUAL challenge of preventing spread once guys do get into camp. Like I’ve said before, it concerns me that these mini-outbreaks happened already at camps where they were, presumably, trying very hard for that not to happen. Is it going to be possible to stop outbreaks when we know what the lag time on this illness looks like?

    Yu Darvish shares a similar concern, presuming the translate feature is reasonably close:




    https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/...-cubs-bullets/
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  2. #2  
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    Herd immunity baby, herd immunity.......it's inevitable that every gets this virus......you can not stay in a bubble, & there should never have been a lockdown.
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  3. #3  
    RX Junior Wins2day's Avatar
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    I still have trouble day to day without bases ...still can't believe baseball shutdown and now it's a sliver of what it should be, even IF it resumes.
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  4. #4  
    RX Junior cybersharp's Avatar
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    I hope they ALL die after weeks on ventilators....after their ventilators, um,
    "spontaneously" catch on fire just as they were washing their hospital gowns
    with gasoline.

    Dump 'em all in a mass-grave ditch and light it up.
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  5. #5  
    RX Junior Wins2day's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cybersharp View Post
    i hope they all die after weeks on ventilators....after their ventilators, um,
    "spontaneously" catch on fire just as they were washing their hospital gowns
    with gasoline.

    Dump 'em all in a mass-grave ditch and light it up.

    lol ..
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  6. #6  
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    With no standards what so ever, any number of different types of test, that people with no real training can adminster we all have covid. Job title means nothing.
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  7. #7  
    Life is Good Heatwave's Avatar
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    It really sucks, but this holds true with all sports, which leaves me fairly pessimistic on whether we will see any other US sport this year other than Nascar and golf. We have already seen many football teams with outbreaks.

    The players in MLB don't really want to play I don't think. Money is an issue as well there. I think the NBA is the same.

    Truth that everyone needs to grasp - without a vaccine or therapeutics, I believe we will hit 20-40M positive cases. 10% of the population. Which will freak the media, and most people, totally out. The death rate will come out at less than 1%, as it looks like death rates aren't rising as fast as infection rates. Which is good, but that could change too. NY, PA, and those states that think they weathered the storm, their reality will set in in a month or two when cases spike there again too.

    Who knows what this fear will drive. More shutdowns? Pretty obvious that shutdowns don't stop this thing.

    Went on tangent there, but major US sports are in danger for sure. I thought they were good to go just a few weeks ago. Sad.
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  8. #8  
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    There will not be sports, no NBA/MLB/NL and then NCAA/NFL football.
    THEY do not want it...
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  9. #9  
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    Nationals duo Zimmerman and Ross join Arizona's Leake in opting out of MLB season

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  10. #10  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    Of course there are going to be positive tests, somewhere between 5 to 20% will test positive. I would say closer to 20%, but not all 20% will have it at the same time and many of that 20% may have already had it
    Living & loving life, despite the bumps. And laughing every day at modern day thought police, thank you
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  11. #11  
    Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory Willie99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    There will not be sports, no NBA/MLB/NL and then NCAA/NFL football.
    THEY do not want it...
    colleges will suffer irreparable financial damages, "they" want to play

    and Tom Brady is practicing like he expects to be playing
    Living & loving life, despite the bumps. And laughing every day at modern day thought police, thank you
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