I think I might have it lol

ConleyPicks · Jun 24, 2020

Been trying different things to make my handicapping easier and recently (since 6/20) I have been trying to "design the race" with help from Brisnet's Track Bias stats

I am eliminating horses who will be too fast up front or too late to get going and then picking the remaining horses with the best pace

Here is my testing and the great results

Belmont R10 6/20/2020:

Tiz The Law strong on pace WON
Belmont R8 6/21/2020:

Brendenbury was the only strong horse on pace vs 2 and 3 WON

Tampa Bay R6 6/22/2020:

slight edge on Late pace WON
Delaware R3 6/24/2020: All others will "tire out" and left with

and

WON

Hopefully when I can be fully confident to try it out with real money I can get some good value!
Trying out few races tomorrow! Seeing how that goes!

Jack1999 · Jun 24, 2020

GL Conley. Keep us updated.

ConleyPicks · Jun 24, 2020

Jack1999 said:
GL Conley. Keep us updated.

I will Jack! Thank you.

Lt1 · Jun 24, 2020

Hey Conley just how are you deciding on who is too fast or too slow?. And what prices are the winners paying so far?.

cgarn · Jun 24, 2020

Lt1 said:
Hey Conley just how are you deciding on who is too fast or too slow?. And what prices are the winners paying so far?.

LT1 besides Tiz The Law, the other winners paid very handsomely.

ConleyPicks · Jun 25, 2020

Lt1 said:
Hey Conley just how are you deciding on who is too fast or too slow?. And what prices are the winners paying so far?.

Horse’s that are up front will use energy and then tire out UNLESS there is very fast speed and then you have to keep him in.
So when there is a field of 6 and then E,E/P,E/P,P,P,S and I would think that you have to look for the P and S unless the E or E/P are strong bias.

partsnut · Jun 25, 2020

ConleyPicks said:
Horse’s that are up front will use energy and then tire out UNLESS there is very fast speed and then you have to keep him in.
So when there is a field of 6 and then E,E/P,E/P,P,P,S and I would think that you have to look for the P and S unless the E or E/P are strong bias.

Conley,

It's unfortunate that Randy Giles' PaceAppraiser is no longer available to the public because you could have learned a lot about pace from him. He does
have a book on the market. "Extreme Handicapping". I am still friendly with Randy and am one of the few that still can access his pace figures. I have a lifetime free subscription with him. I used his pace figures and method to win The P.A.I.H.L contest on PaceAdvantage back in 2009. His sheets literally show you everything you are talking about concerning pace and I believe you are on the right track regarding "pace".

ConleyPicks · Jun 25, 2020

partsnut said:
Conley,

It's unfortunate that Randy Giles' PaceAppraiser is no longer available to the public because you could have learned a lot about pace from him. He does
have a book on the market. "Extreme Handicapping". I am still friendly with Randy and am one of the few that still can access his pace figures. I have a lifetime free subscription with him. I used his pace figures and method to win The P.A.I.H.L contest on PaceAdvantage back in 2009. His sheets literally show you everything you are talking about concerning pace and I believe you are on the right track regarding "pace".

Parts, nice to see you on RX! Ok good that I am on the right track. I believe that single selections and creating pace is the way to go now!

partsnut · Jun 25, 2020

ConleyPicks said:
Parts, nice to see you on RX! Ok good that I am on the right track. I believe that single selections and creating pace is the way to go now!

Now that you have gotten those (2) things down, you have to determine what your selection is worth and what price you are willing to accept for it. (Value).
This game is not about picking winners. It's about how much money you will make at the end of each day. In today's racing with a lot of short fields, 1st time starter races as well as newly created distances where a horse has no past history or has never run this distance or on this surface before. The tracks and racing secretaries are very creative these days.
Remember, you are playing against other bettors and trying to overcome the track (Vig) take out which on average and taking into account all types of bets, about 20%.
So, as most of us know or should know, this is no easy task. About 98% of the betting public are losers. This is the way the game is structured. The mountain is there. Now it's up to you to climb it.

Biz · Jun 25, 2020

"

This game is not about picking winners."

I tell people this all the time. Too many people want to predict the winner of every race.

All you can do is bet horses that offer value, based on your handicapping. The rest is out of your hands.

The sooner players stop blaming jockeys and anything else external, the better off they will be.

Find value, bet it, and live with the results. Trust me it will do wonders for your state of mind.