Rick Gehmay
GOLF
With his data-driven approach to betting golf, Rick Gehman continues to crush sportsbooks. Over the last eight tournaments, Gehman's bets are up $4,554 for $100 players.
Two weeks ago, Gehman told SportsLine readers to bet Webb Simpson at 30-1 to win the RBC Heritage, saying he "certainly appreciates the books dropping Simpson all the way down to 30-1" following a bad performance the week before and noting Harbour Town was a perfect course for Simpson's game. The result? Simpson fired a 22-under to win the RBC Heritage!
Last week Gehman played Doc Redman to make the top 20, a +750 longshot, and Paul Casey over Joaquin Niemann. Redman tied for 11th, Casey bested Niemann by seven strokes, and Gehman had two more easy winners.
Last week's recap
The Travelers Championship was full of close calls for us, many of which found of on the wrong side of a winning ticket. Bryson DeChambeau finished in a tie for 6th, which turned both our outright and Top 5 tickets into losers. Lanto Griffin finished one shot outside the Top 20 which failed to cash that +1200 ticket. The good news is that we hit Doc Redman Top 20 (finished T11) and our tournament matchup. It turns out to be a small loss of 0.24 units on the week, bringing the total down to +45.54 units since Pebble Beach.
Event preview
This is only the second season of existence for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, played at Detroit Golf Club. We won't have as much course history to work with but we know that this course was one of the easiest on TOUR last season. Additionally, the field you see this week won't compare to the first three weeks of the restart. Many top players have opted to take the week off and preparing for the sprint to the end of the 2020 season.
Winner - Viktor Hovland (+2100) - 0.75 units
Top 5 - Viktor Hovland (+450) - .50 units
Few golfers are playing as well as Viktor Hovland since the TOUR's restart. Three straight Top 25s and he just became the first Norweigen male to crack the Top 50 world rankings. He finished strong at TPC River Highlands, carding four rounds under 70 and finishing T11. He will look to notch his second win of the season.
Winner - Doc Redman (+4500) - 0.55 units
Top 5 - Doc Redman (+900) - .45 units
Here's the perfect intersection of recent form and tournament history. While history is limited, Redman finished 2nd last season, his best finish as a professional. He's also been excellent the last two weeks, finishing 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at the RBC Heritage. He followed that up by finishing 3rd in the same stat category this week. This is a prime candidate for a line movement, so get it while it lasts.
Winner - Harold Varner III (+8000) - 0.49 units
Top 10 - Harold Varner III(+550) - 0.35 units
I understand that Varner hasn't won on TOUR but this is a shockingly high number when you compare him to the rest of this field. Varner was 5th in the field last week in Strokes Gained: Approach which is usually a key indicator for success.
Top 10 - Rory Sabbatini (+550) - 0.65 units
The "other Rory" has restarted his PGA TOUR season with a T14 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a T21 at the RBC Heritage. Here's a much weaker field and an event that Sabbatini finished T3 last season.
Top 20- Wesley Bryan (+700) - 0.60 units
It hasn't been good for Bryan who missed ten straight cuts to end 2018 and has been trying to find consistent form ever since. Two consecutive weekends for Bryan including a T24 last week at the Travelers Championship.
Tournament Matchup - Will Gordon (-110) over Maverick McNealy (-110) - 1.0 units
I love a guy who is hungry and no golfer is as hungry as Will Gordon. He's now playing on special temporary membership and has to earn enough money and points to secure his TOUR card for the upcoming season. Despite the lack of name value, Gordon has performed well during his short stint on the PGA TOUR. He notched a Top 10 at the RSM Classic, two Top 20s at Torrey Pines and the Puerto Rico Open then the T3 last week in Connecticut. All of those finishes are within his last five starts on TOUR.
Tournament Matchup - Rickie Fowler to Miss The Cut (+200) - 0.5 units
Fowler has missed three of his last four cuts, one of the worst stretches of his career. He's in the midst of swing changes that have helped to provide those results. If Fowler wasn't a Rocket Mortgage ambassador, you wonder if he'd ever show up to this event. There's not a lot of positive signs coming from the Fowler camp at the moment and it could lead to another short week.
Here are Gehman's top 20 golfers, in projected order of finish:
#1 Bryson DeChambeau
It's almost impossible that DeChambeau has not carded a win yet this season. The top five players in Strokes Gained this season account for six combined wins. DeChambeau is second on that list and the only one without a victory. He's now notched six consecutive Top 10 finishes with a win seemingly coming at any moment.
#2 Webb Simpson
Simpson was a late WD last week at TPC River Highlands out of concerns around COVID-19. He's back in the field this week and looking to build off his win at the RBC Heritage. He's the best player in the field from "fairway through green."
#3 Tyrell Hatton
Hatton is the hottest player on the planet who never gets talked about. His last three starts on TOUR include a 3rd at RBC Heritage, a victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a 6th at WGC Mexico. The strength of field this week will be significantly worse than any of those events.
#4 Sungjae Im
By his own standards, Im has underperformed the last two weeks. He missed the cut at Harbour Town before finishing T58 last week at TPC River Highlands. Despite that, he's still a Top 20 player on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and one of the few elite golfers in this field.
#5 Patrick Reed
Reed is one of the few "top golfers" in this field who played this event last year. Reed finished 5th in 2019 and rebounded off his missed cut at RBC Heritage with an T24 finish last week.
#6 Rickie Fowler
Fowler is in the midst of a swing change and his results have shown he's just not "there" yet. Three missed cuts in his last four starts, something he hasn't done since 2016. Despite the bad run, there is optimism that Fowler will be back in contention once those swing changes click.
#7 Vitkor Hovland
Hovland has been excellent in the restart and has shown flashes of pure greatness. He opened with a 63 on Thursday at TPC River Highland and finished the week 69-67-68 for a T11 position.
#8 Tony Finau
Finau missed the cut on the number last week but ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in this field. Finau has lacked winning upside in his career but still projects firmly in the top 20% of this field.
#9 Hideki Matsuyama
It was "classic Hideki" at the RBC Heritage, his only event of this restart. Matsuyama gained nearly two strokes in ballstriking and lost nearly seven in his short game. He's bad on and around the greens but not that bad. Expect him to knock a little rust off and try to improve on his 13th place finish last year.
#10 Doc Redman
He played well in the final three rounds of the RBC Heritage and followed that up with an T11 finish last week in Connecticut. This is the site of his best TOUR finish, a 2nd place finish last year.
#11 Brendon Todd
A Sunday collapse for Todd who played the final round +5 and dropped from the lead to T11. It may be hard to view it this way, but still a positive result for Todd and his best finish since his scorching run of play at the end of 2019.
#12 Scottie Scheffler
Scheffler was an awesome ballstriker but terrible putter at Colonial. Last week he was great on the greens but terrible everywhere else. If he can put those things together for a week, he'll find himself on top of the leaderboard.
#13 Jason Day
Last week was the first weekend played for Day since the restart. He stalled out on Sunday but there were plenty of positive takeaways from his opening three rounds of 67-69-69.
#14 Brandt Snedeker
Snedeker flashed that scorching hot putter at TPC River Highlands, gaining 4.99 strokes on the field. I'm terribly concerned about the rest of his game but savvy veterans are usually able to flip the script quickly.
#15 Harold Varner III
Varner's statistical profile last week was exactly what we are looking for. He gained 7.17 on Approach and lost 3.23 in his short game. He's generally a positive player on and around the greens, so he'd be labeled a prime "bounceback candidate."
#16 Branden Grace
Another victim of the cut line last week, Grace will look to bounceback this week in Detroit. It's been a rollercoaster year for Grace which includes a win in South Africa, a Top 10 at the Waste Management Open but three missed cuts in his last six starts.
#17 Kevin Kisner
With this being only the second year this event has existed, I do think there is some credence to golfers who played last year. Kisner checks that box but doesn't have much else going for him. He's missed two of three cuts in the restart and doesn't have a Top 15 since the Sony Open in January.
#18 Bubba Watson
Watson is notoriously volatile and disappointed last week at TPC River Highlands, where he has won three times this decade. The "good news" about Watson is that he is just as likely to finish Top 5 as miss the cut and he's still one of the best drivers on TOUR.
#19 J.T. Poston
Poston missed the cut at TPC River Highlands which shouldn't overshadow how good he has been since the restart. He had Top 10s in each of the first two weeks and finished 11th here at Detroit Golf Club last season.
#20 Harris English
English is one of the few golfers in the field who gains strokes in all four major categories, making his game very consistent. He didn't play last week but finished 17th at RBC Heritage, his fourth Top 20 in his last five starts on TOUR.
